What is next: US Retail Sales and BoC & ECB Rates

In the week ahead, trade tariffs are set to dominate global attention around the clock, though key scheduled events will still remain important.

On Wednesday, the US retail sales data is worth watching. The last three reports have come in significantly below expectations but talk of tariffs this time may encourage consumers to shop more aggressively. This is usually good news for the markets, but in the current situation, it is more of a reminder of the changes in the economy.

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#Shorts

#SP500: A more decline to come

🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/15 (GMT)

01:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

06:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — Exp: 30.3K Actual: 18.7K

06:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.4% Actual: 4.4%

06:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index — Exp: 5.7% | 6.0% Actual: 5.6% | 5.9%

09:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 10.6 Actual: -14.0

09:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Survey (Current Situation) — Exp: -86.0 Actual: -81.2

09:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 14.2 Actual: -18.5

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.7% | 2.6% Actual: 0.3% | 2.3%

12:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI Actual: 0.1% | 2.2%

12:30 🇨🇦 Common Core CPI — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.3%

12:30 🇨🇦 Median Core CPI — Exp: 2.9% Actual: 2.9%

12:30 🇨🇦 Trimmed Core CPI — Exp: 2.9% Actual: 2.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index — Exp: -12.8 Actual: -8.1

16:00 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

AUDCAD  Wave Analysis – 14 April 2025

- AUDCAD reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8860

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NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 14 April 2025

- NZDUSD broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5930

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The crypto market gathers strength after the rebound

The cryptocurrency market added 8% over 7 days, stabilising at the $2.7 trillion level since Saturday. This is where the market tried to find support in the last days of March before collapsing at the start of April. A move higher could bolster hopes for further gains, but these expectations will only be confirmed after a solid consolidation above the 200-day moving average, which is now near $2.97 trillion.

Bitcoin continues its cautious rise, trading above its 50-day moving average and reaching $85.7K. This is an important technical attempt to reverse the downtrend. Interestingly, the 200-day average is quite close, so a second confirmation of a trend change could come quite quickly. However, from a pessimistic point of view, it is worth noting that bitcoin has entered a resistance accumulation zone where the strength of the initial rebound may fade.

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 15 April 2025

- EURGBP reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8460

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FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 15 April 2025

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

- FTSE 100 index broke the resistance zone

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/16 (GMT)

02:00 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Real GDP — Exp: 1.4% | 5.1% Actual: 1.2% | 5.4%

02:00 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Real GDP (YTD) — Exp: 5.2% Actual: 5.4%

02:00 🇨🇳 Industrial Production — Exp: 5.9% | 5.9% Actual: 7.7% | 6.5%

02:00 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.2%

02:00 🇨🇳 NBS Press Conference

06:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.4% | 2.7% Actual: 0.3% | 2.6%

06:00 🇬🇧 Core CPI — Exp: 3.4% Actual: 3.4%

06:00 🇬🇧 Retail Price Index — Exp: 0.4% | 3.2% Actual: 0.3% | 3.2%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.2% Actual: 2.2%

09:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: 1.3% | 0.4% Actual: 1.4% | 0.5%

13:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: -0.2% Actual: -0.3%

13:45 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Overnight Rate — Exp: 2.75% Actual: 2.75%

13:45 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Rate Statement

13:45 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Monetary Policy Report

14:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Press Conference

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 400K Actual: 515K

17:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

22:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.7%


[Updated in real time]

USDJPY Wave Analysis – 15 April 2025

- USDJPY reversed from long-term support level 142.00

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 144.65

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Platinum Wave Analysis – 15 April 2025

- Platinum reversed from support level 905.00

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 970.00

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025

- GBPUSD broke key resistance level 1.3200

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 1.3400

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Gold Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025

- Gold broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 3300.00

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Tariff news and resistance zone put pressure on crypto

The crypto market capitalisation fell by 2.6% in the last 24 hours, dropping to $2.63 trillion. The selling pressure intensified amid announcements that the US may raise duties on Chinese goods to 245%. This news hit fertile ground as the market had already reached the levels of the last consolidation, and after the recent rebound, a correction was looming.

Bitcoin is losing with the market, facing resistance in the form of a cluster of 50- and 200-day moving averages. The importance of these levels suggests some pause in the move, but the chances of a rebound remain high. The low point in early April was more than 30% below historical peaks, making current levels attractive to long-term buyers.

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US sales jump gives USD relief, but is driven by fears

US Total retail sales rose 1.4% in March, beating the expected 1.3% after rising 0.2% a month earlier. On an annualised basis, sales rose 4.4%, the fastest pace since December 2023, which contrasted with the slowdown in inflation to 2.4% y/y.

The acceleration in American spending can be attributed to a desire to stock up on goods ahead of a possible price hike triggered by the tariffs announced by Trump last month.

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