#Shorts

104% Tariffs on China: What's Next?

Dollar pressured as markets are betting on a dovish Fed

Over the past week, the probability of a key Fed rate cut in May jumped from 11% to 47% and reached nearly 60% on Tuesday.

For year-end, the market now sees the prevailing scenario as a 100-point rate cut to 3.25%-3.50% or lower with a 75% probability, although a month ago, those odds were barely above a quarter.

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025

- EURGBP broke the resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8700

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Apple Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025

- Apple reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 180.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/10 (GMT)

01:00 🇦🇺 MI Inflation Expectations Actual: 4.2%

01:30 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.0% Actual: -0.1%

01:30 🇨🇳 Producer Price Index — Exp: -2.3% Actual: -2.5%

10:00 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 2.5% Actual: -0.1% | 2.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core CPI — Exp: 0.3% | 3.0% Actual: 0.1% | 2.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 223K Actual: 223K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1880K Actual: 1850K

13:00 🇬🇧 BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks

22:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ Manufacturing Index


[Updated in real time]

Indices: An Epic Reversal

This week saw one of the most epic reversals in the US indices. On Wednesday, the S&P500 added about 9.5% for the day, posting the third largest gain in its 75-year history and rebounding nine-tenths of the decline caused by stiff tariffs.

Market sentiment is still just 16, an extreme fear zone. However, this is a sharp rise out of the single-digit area (3-4 since the beginning of the week). Historically, such bounces in the sentiment index have served as an important signal of a return to growth, at least for the coming days.

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Crypto market stabilises after rebound

The cryptocurrency market cap has stabilised near a key level since the start of the week and went up steadily on the back of tariff news following the rise in equities. However, the spurt was half that of equities. Total capitalisation reached $2.60 trillion, pushing back from support near $2.3 trillion, the level from which the rally began late last year. So far, the rise has been met with caution as capitalisation has yet to cross its 200-day moving average, which is pointing upwards and approaching $2.96 trillion.

Bitcoin held firmly below $75K support at the beginning of the week. The recent growth spurt has lifted the price above $80K, which can be considered a comfort zone. However, the first cryptocurrency approached the upper boundary of the downtrend, and the main test of the two-month trend is just beginning.

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The dollar index breaks multi-year support

The dollar index returned to the lows of September last year after a brief surge at the start of the week. The rebound of the US currency was only sufficient to close the gap created by the announcement of tariffs.

The technical picture since the beginning of the month indicates that the dollar index is entering a new phase of active decline after the rebound at the end of March. Potential downside targets are in the range of 99-100. The lower boundary of this zone aligns with the 161.8% level of the initial decline, while the upper boundary represents the psychologically significant round level that previously halted the USD decline in September last year.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/11 (GMT)

06:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.1% | 0.4% Actual: 0.5% | 0.6%

06:00 🇬🇧 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.1% | -2.4% Actual: 1.5% | 0.1%

06:00 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production — Exp: 0.2% | -2.4% Actual: 2.2% | 0.3%

06:00 🇬🇧 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -17.3B Actual: -20.8B

06:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.3% | 2.2% Actual: 0.3% | 2.2%

06:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised — Exp: 0.4% | 2.3% Actual: 0.4% | 2.3%

12:30 🇺🇸 Producer Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 3.3% Actual: -0.4% | 2.7%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core PPI — Exp: 0.3% | 3.6% Actual: -0.1% | 3.3%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 54.0 Actual: 50.8

15:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks


[Updated in real time]

NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 10 April 2025

- NZDUSD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5820

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USDCHF Wave Analysis – 10 April 2025

- USDCHF broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8200

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Gold Wave Analysis – 10 April 2025

- Gold broke key resistance level 3150.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 3200.00

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AMD Wave Analysis – 10 April 2025

- AMD reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 80.00

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Crypto helped by dollar weakness

Crypto market capitalisation remained at $2.59 trillion on Friday morning, in line with the previous day's values, despite a dip to $2.50 trillion overnight and a subsequent recovery on Friday morning. This contrasts with the slide in stock indices because a falling dollar supports cryptocurrencies. Like a rising tide, the dollar's decline is lifting other assets.

Sentiment in the crypto market has returned to the extreme fear zone, sending the index to the 25 level.

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 11 April 2025

- Bitcoin reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 87785.00

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USDJPY Wave Analysis – 11 April 2025

- USDJPY broke the support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 141.65

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US Dollar Suffers Amidst Inflation Data and Expectations

The US dollar is nearly in free fall. The primary reason is the sell-off in US bonds, which has not spared even short-term securities that typically serve as a safe haven. The anti-dollar sentiment is fuelled by the weak inflation data released over the past few days.

Consumer prices for March decreased by 0.1%, and the annual rate of inflation fell to 2.4%, compared to expectations of an increase of 0.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Friday's producer price figures were even more divergent from expectations. The overall price index dropped by 0.4% against an anticipated increase of 0.2%. Annual inflation slowed from 3.2% to 2.7%, in contrast to average forecasts predicting an acceleration to 3.3%.

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