Crypto: A More Subdued Decline, Not Yet a Reversal

The cryptocurrency market found its footing on Monday with the start of active trading in Europe. However, that rebound from the $2.37 trillion level to $2.55 trillion appears to be losing steam. Even at current levels, the decline over the past seven days is over 8%. Without reliable signs of a reversal in the stock markets, the upward momentum could quickly fade. It looks like we are not seeing a reversal but only a stabilisation of the decline.

Bitcoin slipped below $75k at the start of the week, bouncing briefly above $80k on Monday and Tuesday. The technical picture for Bitcoin remains tragic. Earlier this month, a death cross formed when the 50-day average dipped below the 200-day. Last year, a similar signal had the opposite effect, recording a low a couple of days before the signal. But in the last couple of months, the downward trending 50-day has been acting as an effective resistance. In case of a market reversal, a consolidation above the 86k level, where it is now, would be an important signal of a break in the downtrend.

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#Shorts

#GBPUSD: Prolonged Decline

CADCHF Wave Analysis – 8 April 2025

- CADCHF reversed from pivotal resistance level 0.6050

- Likely to fall to support level 0.5935

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Merck Wave Analysis – 8 April 2025

- Merck broke strong support level 81.30

- Likely to fall to support level 75.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/09 (GMT)

02:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Official Cash Rate — Exp: 3.50% Actual: 3.50%

02:00 🇳🇿 ⚡️ RBNZ Rate Statement

06:15 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda Speaks

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 2200K Actual: 2553K

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Meeting Minutes


[Updated in real time]

WTI Wave Analysis – 8 April 2025

- WTI broke the long-term support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 55.00

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GBPCHF Wave Analysis – 8 April 2025

- GBPCHF broke the support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.0785

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Video: Bitcoin in Crisis. Will Crypto Bounce Back or Crash?

Bitcoin’s struggle continues, and the market’s rebound might not last. But what’s really driving the chaos? Record hash rates, surprising outflows, and troubling signals—are we on the brink of a crash, or is this just the calm before the storm? Find out what’s really happening in today’s Pro News Flash. You won’t want to miss this!



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The crypto market has returned to this week’s lows

Crypto market capitalisation declined more than 2% in 24 hours to $2.46 trillion. As was the case at the beginning of the week, the intraday dip below $2.40 trillion attracted buyers. As is often the case, an important resistance level became support. From around these levels, we saw the start of the rally after Trump's election, and now the fightback is intensifying again, as seen in the increased trading volumes.

Crypto market sentiment was at its lowest point in the last five weeks, with the corresponding index to 18 (extreme fear) declining. By the index's design, these levels are buying opportunities. However, it is much more prudent to buy when the index is confidently moving out of the extreme fear zone.

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#Shorts

104% Tariffs on China: What's Next?

Dollar pressured as markets are betting on a dovish Fed

Over the past week, the probability of a key Fed rate cut in May jumped from 11% to 47% and reached nearly 60% on Tuesday.

For year-end, the market now sees the prevailing scenario as a 100-point rate cut to 3.25%-3.50% or lower with a 75% probability, although a month ago, those odds were barely above a quarter.

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025

- EURGBP broke the resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8700

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Apple Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025

- Apple reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 180.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/10 (GMT)

01:00 🇦🇺 MI Inflation Expectations Actual: 4.2%

01:30 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.0% Actual: -0.1%

01:30 🇨🇳 Producer Price Index — Exp: -2.3% Actual: -2.5%

10:00 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 2.5% Actual: -0.1% | 2.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Core CPI — Exp: 0.3% | 3.0% Actual: 0.1% | 2.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 223K Actual: 223K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1880K Actual: 1850K

13:00 🇬🇧 BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks

22:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ Manufacturing Index


[Updated in real time]

Indices: An Epic Reversal

This week saw one of the most epic reversals in the US indices. On Wednesday, the S&P500 added about 9.5% for the day, posting the third largest gain in its 75-year history and rebounding nine-tenths of the decline caused by stiff tariffs.

Market sentiment is still just 16, an extreme fear zone. However, this is a sharp rise out of the single-digit area (3-4 since the beginning of the week). Historically, such bounces in the sentiment index have served as an important signal of a return to growth, at least for the coming days.

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Crypto market stabilises after rebound

The cryptocurrency market cap has stabilised near a key level since the start of the week and went up steadily on the back of tariff news following the rise in equities. However, the spurt was half that of equities. Total capitalisation reached $2.60 trillion, pushing back from support near $2.3 trillion, the level from which the rally began late last year. So far, the rise has been met with caution as capitalisation has yet to cross its 200-day moving average, which is pointing upwards and approaching $2.96 trillion.

Bitcoin held firmly below $75K support at the beginning of the week. The recent growth spurt has lifted the price above $80K, which can be considered a comfort zone. However, the first cryptocurrency approached the upper boundary of the downtrend, and the main test of the two-month trend is just beginning.

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