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Crypto did not give up trying to find the bottom

The crypto market cap fell below $2.65 trillion twice during the week. The market was below the 2.60 level in November. The ability to consolidate above it was an important signal for the start of the rally. The market will likely defend this, which promises a prolonged battle near these levels. However, the balance is now on the side of the bears as the capitalisation index is moving away from its 200-day average. This is an important signal for large funds to reduce their investments in the sector.

The Cryptocurrency Sentiment Index spent the entire week in fear territory, ending in extreme fear at 25β€”the lowest level in three and a half weeks. However, these readings are not low enough to suggest oversold conditions, which should discourage sellers.

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πŸ›’Crude Oil -8% in 12h on Trump & OPEC+ πŸ“‰
πŸ‘‰Buy or Sell?
Anonymous Poll
58%
BUY ⬆️
42%
SELL ⬇️
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πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/04/04 (GMT)

08:30 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Construction PMI β€” Exp: 46.3 Actual: 46.4

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Non-Farm Employment Change β€” Exp: 137K Actual: 228K

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Unemployment Rate β€” Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.2%

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Average Hourly Earnings β€” Exp: 0.3% | 3.9% Actual: 0.3% | 3.8%

12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Change in Private Payrolls β€” Exp: 130K Actual: 209K

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ ⚑️ Employment Change β€” Exp: 10.4K Actual: -32.6K

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ ⚑️ Unemployment Rate β€” Exp: 6.7% Actual: 6.7%

12:30 πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -62.0K | 29.5K

15:25 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

16:00 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ FOMC Member Michael S. Barr Speaks

16:45 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks


[Updated in real time]
FxPro pinned Β«πŸ—“ Economic Calendar at 2025/04/04 (GMT) 08:30 πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Construction PMI β€” Exp: 46.3 Actual: 46.4 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Non-Farm Employment Change β€” Exp: 137K Actual: 228K 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ ⚑️ Unemployment Rate β€” Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.2% 12:30 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Average Hourly Earnings…»
FTSE100 -1.5% to 11-week low, testing the 200-day MA πŸ“‰
πŸ‘‰Buy or Sell?
Anonymous Poll
71%
BUY ⬆️
29%
SELL ⬇️
πŸ‘2
Tariff wars made the dollar a risky asset

The fall in the U.S. dollar accelerated at the start of April as the shock of trade tariffs caused capital flight from U.S. assets. We don’t know yet how long this trend will be. In finance, it is often said, β€œAmerica sneezes, and the world gets a fever.” Even if the problems originated in the US, the impact on the markets of other countries will be more substantial.

The dollar index moved sharply below its previous support, confirming the prevailing downtrend. The technical target of the current drop now looks like the area from 99 to 100. The lower boundary represents the Fibonacci extension of the first impulse. The upper boundary passes through the psychologically significant round level, which stopped the dollar's decline in September-October last year.

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The US index’s demise has accelerated after confirming the downtrend

The tariffs announced by Trump were tougher than expected and were not immediately followed by talks on easing them. This triggered a negative reaction in stock markets around the world, including the US. An important barometer of sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index, plummeted to 6, to a 3-year low. This is considered a time for bold buying. However, it is more prudent at times like this to wait for the indicator to move back from the extreme fear zone below 25.

The S&P500 moved to renew multi-month lows after consolidating and rebounding in the second half of March. The technical turning point was the touch of the 200-day moving average near 5800. This level also coincided with a corrective bounce to 61.8% of the decline from the second half of February. A decisive affirmation of the downtrend opens the way to the 5100 area, taking the US market back to the lows of last August.

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Mad Gold and Crude Oil

Movements in metals have been monumental. A 3% rise deep into the region of all-time highs for Gold was followed by a collapse of more than $100 from $3,170 to $3,050 an ounce. On Friday, trading stabilised near $3100, minimally adding to levels at the opening of the week.

Tactically, this is a good time for the bulls to exhale and lock in profits. This is confirmed by the fulfilment of an important growth target and the entry into extreme overbought on weekly timeframes on RSI. Multi-week corrections started in similar conditions in 2024.

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Video Pro News Weekly

The U.S. dollar takes a major hit as trade tariffs spark capital flight, while global markets feel the ripple effect. Crypto faces a tough battle as Bitcoin struggles below $82K, and oil plummets after a double blow from macroeconomics and OPEC+. Will the Fed tighten its grip, or can markets recover? Tune in for all the latest updates, including crucial inflation data and what’s driving the fear in the markets. Don’t miss out on this week’s financial rollercoaster in Pro News Weekly!



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