AUDCHF Wave Analysis – 2 April 2025

- AUDCHF reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.5600

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Manufacturing ISM: inflation up, activity down

Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing Indicator confirmed a worrying divergence in the US economy: economic activity is down, and inflation is rising. Often, the latter follows the former, but not now. A prolonged period of such dynamics is called stagflation, and it forces the Fed to make difficult choices in its dual mandate.

The ISM manufacturing business activity index fell from 50.3 to 49 last month. Strictly speaking, this is contractionary territory for the sector's activity, but due to the greater resilience of the service sector, historically, US GDP has declined when the indicator falls below 42.3.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/03 (GMT)

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Services PMI — Exp: 51.5 Actual: 51.9

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Composite PMI Actual: 51.8

06:30 🇨🇭 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 0.4% Actual: 0.0% | 0.3%

07:50 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 46.6 Actual: 47.9

07:50 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.9 Actual: 48.0

07:55 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 50.2 Actual: 50.9

07:55 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.9 Actual: 51.3

08:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 51.0

08:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.4 Actual: 50.9

08:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 53.2 Actual: 52.5

08:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 52.0 Actual: 51.5

10:00 All OPEC-JMMC Meetings

11:30 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 225K Actual: 219K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1860K Actual: 1903K

12:30 🇺🇸 Trade Balance — Exp: -122.5B Actual: -122.7B

12:30 🇨🇦 Trade Balance — Exp: 3.4B Actual: -1.5B

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 54.3 Actual: 54.4

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite — Exp: 53.5 Actual: 53.5

14:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Services PMI — Exp: 53.0 Actual: 50.8

16:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Philip N. Jefferson Speaks

18:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Lisa D. Cook Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Caterpillar Wave Analysis – 2 April 2025

- Caterpillar reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 350.00

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Silver Wave Analysis – 2 April 2025

- Silver reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 34.50

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Crypto did not give up trying to find the bottom

The crypto market cap fell below $2.65 trillion twice during the week. The market was below the 2.60 level in November. The ability to consolidate above it was an important signal for the start of the rally. The market will likely defend this, which promises a prolonged battle near these levels. However, the balance is now on the side of the bears as the capitalisation index is moving away from its 200-day average. This is an important signal for large funds to reduce their investments in the sector.

The Cryptocurrency Sentiment Index spent the entire week in fear territory, ending in extreme fear at 25—the lowest level in three and a half weeks. However, these readings are not low enough to suggest oversold conditions, which should discourage sellers.

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 3 April 2025

- EURUSD broke key resistance level 1.0930

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 1.1200

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Bitcoin Wave Analysis – 3 April 2025

- Bitcoin reversed from resistance level 87785.00

- Likely to fall to support level 78650.00

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EUR50 Wave Analysis – 3 April 2025

- EUR50 index broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 5000.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/04/04 (GMT)

08:30 🇬🇧 Construction PMI — Exp: 46.3 Actual: 46.4

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Non-Farm Employment Change — Exp: 137K Actual: 228K

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.2%

12:30 🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings — Exp: 0.3% | 3.9% Actual: 0.3% | 3.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 Change in Private Payrolls — Exp: 130K Actual: 209K

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 10.4K Actual: -32.6K

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.7% Actual: 6.7%

12:30 🇨🇦 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -62.0K | 29.5K

15:25 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

16:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michael S. Barr Speaks

16:45 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Christopher J. Waller Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis – 3 April 2025

- Nasdaq-100 index broke support level 18820.00

- Likely to fall to support level 18295.00

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AUDJPY Wave Analysis – 4 April 2025

- AUDJPY broke support level 90.00

- Likely to fall to support level 88.00

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#Shorts

#USDJPY: Beginning of growth?

EURGBP Wave Analysis – 4 April 2025

- EURGBP broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8500

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