UK Inflation Cools Down Pound

UK consumer inflation was weaker than expected. The annual rate of price increases slowed to 2.8% from 3.0%. It remains well above the local low of 1.7% recorded in September. The latest deceleration is still more of a hope than a signal that inflation is slowing, as the previous reading was the highest since March 2024.

However, the downside surprise may allow the Bank of England to return to cutting interest rates sooner and maintain the pace of quarterly cuts.

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GBPCAD Wave Analysis – 26 March 2025

- GBPCAD reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.8230

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WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 26 March 2025

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

- WTI crude oil broke resistance area

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No need to fear the death cross in BTC

Crypto market capitalisation rose 0.5% in the last 24 hours to $2.89 trillion, the highest since March 8, but still below the 200-day moving average. The Bulls still have to prove their strength by overcoming an important technical level. But worryingly, recent gains have come on low trading volume. This could simply be a setup to trap buyers and trigger a sharp sell-off in the next move.

Bitcoin pulled back below $87K on Wednesday, hesitant to storm the 50-day moving average and the round $90K level. This curve is pointing downwards and will soon cross the 200-day average. Technically, this would form a ‘death cross’, but we place greater importance on the upward price trend seen over the past three weeks.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/27 (GMT)

08:30 🇬🇧 MPC Member Swati Dhingra Speaks

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 2.3% Actual: 2.4%

12:30 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.3%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure — Exp: 2.7% Actual: 2.6%

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 225K Actual: 224K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1900K Actual: 1856K

12:30 🇺🇸 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -134.6B Actual: -147.9B

14:00 🇺🇸 Pending Home Sales — Exp: 0.9% Actual: 2.0% | -3.6%

18:05 🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks


[Updated in real time]

GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 26 March 2025

- GBPUSD reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 1.2800

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Virgin Galactic Wave Analysis – 26 March 2025

Virgin Galactic: ⬇️ Sell

- Virgin Galactic reversed from the resistance area

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Bears stick to the 200-day MA

The crypto market gained around 1.8% last week to $2.86 trillion. The strong rally on Sunday and Monday was replaced by a stall just below the 200-day moving average. This line acts as a long-term trend reference for large funds, which tend to sell below it and buy when the price is higher. The bears clearly don't want to give up last month's gains and are keeping the market from moving higher.

Bitcoin has been dancing around its 200-day MA for the past three weeks but has been trading steadily higher for the past few days despite preferring to stay in its shadow. This is a very positive sign of a change in long-term market sentiment. We also note that negative news from the stock market has become less of a concern for Bitcoin. At the same time, we believe that the acceleration in the growth of the first cryptocurrency should not be expected before a consolidation above the 50-day moving average. This acts as a medium-term trend signal line, passing close to 90,000. A consolidation above it could accelerate price growth and attract new buyers.

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Gold and Silver about to break the ceiling

Gold returned to growth this week, re-entering the territory of historical highs after a brief correction at the end of last week. The reason for the new growth momentum is new bouts of tariff wars, which intensifies the pull to safe havens on the part of Central Banks. They continue to buy gold instead of US Treasury bonds.

The current growth is a logical development of the technical picture, which we have described many times before. Its logical development will be a growth to the area of $3180 in the perspective of a couple of weeks and a rise towards $3400 by the end of summer.

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#Shorts

#SP500: Market upward correction followed by decline

Smashed Hopes for US Stocks Recovery

The recovery of the US stock market encountered resistance in the form of a new batch of tariffs on autos by the US and market nervousness about the response of other countries. The 200-day moving average of the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 became such resistance on the tech analysis side.

Last week, the big question was whether we are seeing the beginning of a recovery from the 10% correction in the S&P500 or whether this is simply a rebound within a broad downward decline that is just at the beginning of the journey.

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3M Wave Analysis – 27 March 2025

- 3M reversed from resistance area

- Likely to fall to support level 147.00

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EURGBP Wave Analysis – 27 March 2025

- EURGBP broke support area

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8300

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/28 (GMT)

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: -0.3% | 0.5% Actual: 1.0% | 2.2%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: -0.5% | 0.4% Actual: 1.0% | 2.2%

07:00 🇬🇧 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -16.8B Actual: -17.9

08:00 🇨🇭 KOF Economic Barometer — Exp: 102.6 Actual: 103.9

08:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Change — Exp: 10K Actual: 26K

08:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.2% Actual: 6.3%

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.3% | 2.1% Actual: 0.4% | 2.2%

12:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.3% | 2.7% Actual: 0.4% | 2.8%

12:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.5% Actual: 0.4%

14:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 57.9 Actual: 57.0

16:15 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michael S. Barr Speaks

19:45 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Silver Wave Analysis – 27 March 2025

- Silver broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 34.80

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Pfizer Wave Analysis – 27 March 2025

- Pfizer broke support level 25.20

- Likely to fall to support level 24.70

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Dollar under tariffs pressure

The US dollar has maintained its sluggish uptrend in the first half of the week, continuing to form a bottom, but it has encountered resistance. It is atypical for the dollar and US indices to move in the same direction. However, this is the situation currently, and it is dragging on because of tariff uncertainty.

The technical obstacle to growth was the approach to the 200-day moving average and the first line of the correctional bounce at 76.4% from the decline from February to the lows of March. In addition, the dollar index no longer looks so oversold, according to the RSI index on the daily timeframes.

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What is next: Australia Rate, EU CPI, US NFP

Europe is switching to daylight saving time in the new week - don't miss the changes in the trading schedule.

Among the key events on the 1st of April, we highlight the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision. The rate is expected to remain at 4.1% after a cut in February. Inflation only ticked down last month, and GDP growth remains healthy, so it is hardly prudent to ease policy too sharply.

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US inflation accelerates but lags income growth

The Fed's preferred indicator of US inflation, the core index of personal consumption expenditure, accelerated from 2.6% to 2.8% in February. This is above the expected 2.7%, confirming that it is too early to see a sustained downward trend in prices.

At the same time, we note the second month of acceleration in income growth, which added 0.8% in February after a 0.7% increase in January. Total spending rose by 0.6% after a contraction of 0.4% earlier. As a result, Americans' personal savings exceeded 4.6%, approaching the norm. The savings rate was mostly above 5% from 2013 to 2022. The rate only went below it during the inflationary surge of 2022 and between 2004 and 2008.

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