Gold Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025

- Gold continues daily uptrend

- Likely to rise to resistance level 3100.00

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🔔 Upcoming UK BoE Rate Decision @12:00 GMT in 15 minutes.

Previous 4.50%
Expected 4.50%

Be prepared for 💷 GBP volatility!

Crypto Market Testing Resistance

The cryptocurrency market has been on the rise, growing by over 5% since Tuesday and reaching a total capitalisation of $2.81 trillion. Optimists are hopeful that, after hitting recent highs, the market is ready to shift towards growth. However, despite this excitement, it’s important to note that the crypto market has yet to break above its 200-day moving average, currently sitting close to $2.9 trillion. A strong rally above this level could trigger an active buying phase, but there’s also a risk of bears setting up a trap, as they’ve done several times before.

Sentiment has improved, though. The Fear and Greed Index climbed back to the middle of its range by the end of the week, a level we haven’t seen in four weeks. This shift out of the extreme low zone could be the first sign of a trend reversal, suggesting there’s still plenty of room for growth.

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#Shorts

#Bitcoin: End of the correction

EURCAD Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- EURCAD reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.5400

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AUDNZD Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- AUDNZD reversed from key support level 1.0930

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0985

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IBM Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- IBM reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 253.00

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Apple Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- Apple reversed from resistance level 220.00

- Likely to fall to support level 208.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/21 (GMT)

10:30 🇷🇺 ⚡️ Key bank rate — Exp: 21% Actual: 21%

12:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: -0.4% | -0.1% Actual: -0.6% | 0.2%

13:05 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Dollar: Slowly Forming a Bottom

The US Dollar has been trading in a tight range against its major rivals for the past two weeks, and the Dollar Index is gently forming a bottom after an impressive oversold condition. However, traders are advised to be patient. Last August, the dollar was similarly oversold, which coincided with weakness in US equities. However, it took more than a month for the Dollar Index to rally strongly. In other words, a low Relative Strength Index is not in itself a buy signal. One should not succumb to FOMO and look for a low to buy. It makes much more sense to join the uptrend when it is already in place.

Earlier this week, the Fed sent a mixed signal to the markets. On the one hand, it lowered its GDP growth forecasts for the current year but also raised inflation expectations. The former brings us closer to a rate cut, while the latter makes us wary of a spike in inflation as we saw three years ago.

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Indices: a Step Up Despite Extreme Fear

The major US indices have been rallying since the end of last week and gained even further ground this week following the FOMC's post-interest rate decision comments.

As we warned last week, oversold conditions in equity indices attracted buyers, and the S&P500 added over 3% to last week's lows. Meanwhile, the index remains below its 200-day moving average, suggesting that the bears continue to dominate.

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Gold: Growth Opportunities

Gold has been in an uptrend since the beginning of March, and the rally accelerated as gold hit new highs at the end of last week, when the spot price hit a new record of $3057. We see this breakout as the start of a new expansionary momentum with an upside potential of $3180/oz, which represents 161.8% of the upside momentum from the start of the year to the February peak.

The alternative view is also bullish. According to it, gold has completed a correction since the beginning of the year, following the rally from October 2023 to November 2024. The bulls are now targeting the level of $3400 an ounce. This seems like the bulls' target for the coming months. However, we should not lose sight of the fact that the current rally in gold is accumulating extreme overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly timeframes.

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What’s next: Flash PMIs, UK CPI & US PCE

The new week will start with the first estimate of the PMI business activity indexes for March, which will be influential for the single European currency. In recent months, this indicator has picked up considerably, which has helped equities and the euro. There are growing expectations that not only the service sector but also manufacturing activity will return to growth territory after many months of contraction.

On Wednesday, it is worth paying attention to the UK inflation figures, where we see an acceleration since October. This is an important reason why the Bank of England is not cutting rates. Analysts, on average, forecast a slowdown from 3.0% to 2.9%. Deviations from forecasts will drive the pound.

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USDCHF Wave Analysis – 21 March 2025

- USDCHF reversed from support level 0,8750

- Likely to fall to support level 208.00

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Silver Wave Analysis – 21 March 2025

- Silver reversed from resistance level 34.00

- Likely to fall to support level 32.00

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Google Wave Analysis – 21 March 2025

- Google reversed from key support level 160.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 167.00

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Tesla Wave Analysis – 21 March 2025

- Tesla reversed from support level 220.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 280.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/24 (GMT)

08:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 46.2 Actual: 48.9

08:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 46.3 Actual: 46.6

08:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 46.1 Actual: 48.9

08:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 47.1 Actual: 48.3

08:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 52.3 Actual: 50.2

08:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 50.9

09:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 48.3 Actual: 48.7

09:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 50.4

09:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50 Actual: 50.4

09:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 47.3 Actual: 44.6

09:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 53.2

09:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.3 Actual: 52.0

13:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.9 Actual: 49.8

13:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 51.2 Actual: 54.3

13:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite Actual: 53.5

17:45 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks

18:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

19:10 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michael S. Barr Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Video: Market Shake-Up! Dollar, Bitcoin & Gold on the Move – What’s Next?

Big moves are brewing in the markets! 📉📈 The US Dollar is forming a bottom, Bitcoin is battling key resistance, and gold just hit record highs! But is this a breakout or a bull trap? 🤔 Get expert insights and the key trends shaping the week ahead. Don’t miss it—like, share, and subscribe for the latest financial updates!



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