🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/19 (GMT)

02:25 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Overnight Call Rate — Exp: 0.50% Actual: 0.50%

02:25 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

06:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Press Conference

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.3%

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.6% Actual: 2.6%

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 800K Actual: 1745K

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Rate Decision — Exp: 4.50% Actual: 4.50%

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Statement

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Economic Projections

18:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Press Conference

21:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.4% | -1.4%


[Updated in real time]

Ethereum gives way

The crypto market remains in a downtrend. Its cap rose 0.2% over the past 24 hours to $2.72 trillion and generally remains in a very tight range with a short-term ceiling of $2.75 trillion. Just over a month ago, similar local resistance was half a trillion higher.

While almost all altcoins combined have been broadly stable at 30% market share since July 2023, Ethereum has been giving away its share since July 2024, falling to 8%, a five-year low. BTC's share has been growing for more than two years, reaching 60.7%. Interest from institutional traders and governments has so far not extended beyond the first cryptocurrency, which they see as a strategic reserve asset rather than the practicality offered by altcoins, including ETH.

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025

- EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.0930

- Likely to fall to support level 1.0830

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NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025

- NZDUSD reversed from the resistance level 0.5820

- Likely to fall to support level 0.5750

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/20 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 30.8K Actual: -52.8K

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.1%

00:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -35.7K | -17.0K

01:00 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate — Exp: 3.10% | 3.60% Actual: 3.10% | 3.60%

07:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — Exp: 7.9K Actual: 44.2K

07:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.4% Actual: 4.4%

07:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index — Exp: 5.8% | 5.9% Actual: 5.8% | 5.9%

08:00 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

08:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Policy Rate — Exp: 0.25% Actual: 0.25%

08:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

09:00 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Press Conference

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 4.50% Actual: 4.50

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ MPC Official Bank Rate Votes — Exp: 0-2-7 Actual: 0-1-8

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Summary

12:00 🇬🇧 BOE Inflation Letter

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 224K Actual: 223K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1890K Actual: 1892K

12:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 8.8 Actual: 12.5

12:30 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 3.95M Actual: 4.26M | 4.2%

16:50 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks

21:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: -235M

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 2.9%


[Updated in real time]

EURJPY Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025

- EURJPY reversed from resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 161.00

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Gold Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025

- Gold continues daily uptrend

- Likely to rise to resistance level 3100.00

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🔔 Upcoming UK BoE Rate Decision @12:00 GMT in 15 minutes.

Previous 4.50%
Expected 4.50%

Be prepared for 💷 GBP volatility!

Crypto Market Testing Resistance

The cryptocurrency market has been on the rise, growing by over 5% since Tuesday and reaching a total capitalisation of $2.81 trillion. Optimists are hopeful that, after hitting recent highs, the market is ready to shift towards growth. However, despite this excitement, it’s important to note that the crypto market has yet to break above its 200-day moving average, currently sitting close to $2.9 trillion. A strong rally above this level could trigger an active buying phase, but there’s also a risk of bears setting up a trap, as they’ve done several times before.

Sentiment has improved, though. The Fear and Greed Index climbed back to the middle of its range by the end of the week, a level we haven’t seen in four weeks. This shift out of the extreme low zone could be the first sign of a trend reversal, suggesting there’s still plenty of room for growth.

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#Shorts

#Bitcoin: End of the correction

EURCAD Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- EURCAD reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.5400

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AUDNZD Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- AUDNZD reversed from key support level 1.0930

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0985

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IBM Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- IBM reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 253.00

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Apple Wave Analysis – 20 March 2025

- Apple reversed from resistance level 220.00

- Likely to fall to support level 208.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/21 (GMT)

10:30 🇷🇺 ⚡️ Key bank rate — Exp: 21% Actual: 21%

12:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: -0.4% | -0.1% Actual: -0.6% | 0.2%

13:05 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Dollar: Slowly Forming a Bottom

The US Dollar has been trading in a tight range against its major rivals for the past two weeks, and the Dollar Index is gently forming a bottom after an impressive oversold condition. However, traders are advised to be patient. Last August, the dollar was similarly oversold, which coincided with weakness in US equities. However, it took more than a month for the Dollar Index to rally strongly. In other words, a low Relative Strength Index is not in itself a buy signal. One should not succumb to FOMO and look for a low to buy. It makes much more sense to join the uptrend when it is already in place.

Earlier this week, the Fed sent a mixed signal to the markets. On the one hand, it lowered its GDP growth forecasts for the current year but also raised inflation expectations. The former brings us closer to a rate cut, while the latter makes us wary of a spike in inflation as we saw three years ago.

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Indices: a Step Up Despite Extreme Fear

The major US indices have been rallying since the end of last week and gained even further ground this week following the FOMC's post-interest rate decision comments.

As we warned last week, oversold conditions in equity indices attracted buyers, and the S&P500 added over 3% to last week's lows. Meanwhile, the index remains below its 200-day moving average, suggesting that the bears continue to dominate.

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Gold: Growth Opportunities

Gold has been in an uptrend since the beginning of March, and the rally accelerated as gold hit new highs at the end of last week, when the spot price hit a new record of $3057. We see this breakout as the start of a new expansionary momentum with an upside potential of $3180/oz, which represents 161.8% of the upside momentum from the start of the year to the February peak.

The alternative view is also bullish. According to it, gold has completed a correction since the beginning of the year, following the rally from October 2023 to November 2024. The bulls are now targeting the level of $3400 an ounce. This seems like the bulls' target for the coming months. However, we should not lose sight of the fact that the current rally in gold is accumulating extreme overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly timeframes.

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