#EURJPY: a prolonged uptrend to come

Dow Jones: Rebound or Rally? The Fed Holds the Key

Key US indices staged an impressive rebound on Friday, turning the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) up one step away from formally entering correction territory (-10% from the peak). In doing so, the US economy is headed for recession if the theories coined by the index's founder and first editor of the Wall Street Journal still apply.

In his theory, Charles Dow pointed out that the trend of the industrial index is correct if confirmed by the dynamics of the transport sector. However, since peaking in late November, the DJTA index has lost nearly 20%, accelerating its decline three weeks ago. The rapid decline has led to the formation of a 'death cross,' a bearish market signal when the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day moving average.

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Weak US retail sales might boost stocks

US retail sales rose by only 0.2% in February after a 1.2% drop a month earlier (revised from -0.9%). The values came out weaker than expected, further strengthening the arguments of those pointing to recession risks in the US economy.

This news puts additional pressure on the dollar, which has been attempting to consolidate after a 6% decline from the peak for a little over a week. Rising speculation about an imminent Fed rate cut is also weighing against the dollar.

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AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 17 March 2025

- AUDUSD broke resistance level 0.6350

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400

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EURNZD Wave Analysis – 17 March 2025

- EURNZD reversed from long-term resistance level 1.9160

- Likely to fall to support level 1.8640

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/18 (GMT)

10:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 48.1 Actual: 51.6

10:00 🇩🇪 ZEW Survey (Current Situation) — Exp: -80.5 Actual: -87.6

10:00 🇪🇺 ZEW Economic Sentiment — Exp: 43.6 Actual: 39.8

12:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.6% | 2.1% Actual: 1.1% | 2.6%

12:30 🇨🇦 Core CPI Actual: 0.7% | 2.7%

12:30 🇨🇦 Common Core CPI — Exp: 2.2% Actual: 2.5%

12:30 🇨🇦 Median Core CPI — Exp: 2.7% Actual: 2.9%

12:30 🇨🇦 Trimmed Core CPI — Exp: 2.8% Actual: 2.9%

12:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1450K Actual: 1456K | -1.2%

12:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1380K Actual: 1501K | 11.2%

13:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.2% Actual: 0.7%


[Updated in real time]

Alibaba Wave Analysis – 17 March 2025

- Alibaba broke the key resistance level 145.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 155.00

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FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 17 March 2025

FTSE 100: ⬆️ Buy

- FTSE 100 reversed from key support level 8425.00

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The crypto market is stuck in the mud

The crypto market has been hovering in a narrow range for the past four days, adding just over 2.5% over the past seven days to $2.72 trillion. These are levels below the 200-day moving average, indicating that the balance of power is now on the sellers' side. It is an important signal line separating bull from bear trends. It is also noteworthy that stabilisation is taking place on reduced volumes, saying that the current position is fragile despite the positive performance of stock indices in the last couple of trading sessions.

The cryptocurrency sentiment index is in fear territory, but during Bitcoin's rebound over the past week, it has moved to neutral territory a couple of times.

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CHFJPY Wave Analysis – 18 March 2025

- CHFJPY broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 172.00

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Solana Wave Analysis – 18 March 2025

- Solana reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 113.75

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GBPAUD Wave Analysis – 18 March 2025

- GBPAUD reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 2.060

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GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 18 March 2025

- GBPUSD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3050

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/19 (GMT)

02:25 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Overnight Call Rate — Exp: 0.50% Actual: 0.50%

02:25 🇯🇵 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Statement

06:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ BOJ Press Conference

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.3%

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.6% Actual: 2.6%

14:30 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 800K Actual: 1745K

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Rate Decision — Exp: 4.50% Actual: 4.50%

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Statement

18:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Economic Projections

18:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ FOMC Press Conference

21:45 🇳🇿 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.4% | -1.4%


[Updated in real time]

Ethereum gives way

The crypto market remains in a downtrend. Its cap rose 0.2% over the past 24 hours to $2.72 trillion and generally remains in a very tight range with a short-term ceiling of $2.75 trillion. Just over a month ago, similar local resistance was half a trillion higher.

While almost all altcoins combined have been broadly stable at 30% market share since July 2023, Ethereum has been giving away its share since July 2024, falling to 8%, a five-year low. BTC's share has been growing for more than two years, reaching 60.7%. Interest from institutional traders and governments has so far not extended beyond the first cryptocurrency, which they see as a strategic reserve asset rather than the practicality offered by altcoins, including ETH.

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EURUSD Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025

- EURUSD reversed from resistance level 1.0930

- Likely to fall to support level 1.0830

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NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 19 March 2025

- NZDUSD reversed from the resistance level 0.5820

- Likely to fall to support level 0.5750

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/03/20 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 30.8K Actual: -52.8K

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.1%

00:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -35.7K | -17.0K

01:00 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate — Exp: 3.10% | 3.60% Actual: 3.10% | 3.60%

07:00 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — Exp: 7.9K Actual: 44.2K

07:00 🇬🇧 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.4% Actual: 4.4%

07:00 🇬🇧 Average Earnings Index — Exp: 5.8% | 5.9% Actual: 5.8% | 5.9%

08:00 🇪🇺 ⚡️ ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks

08:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Policy Rate — Exp: 0.25% Actual: 0.25%

08:30 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

09:00 🇨🇭 ⚡️ SNB Press Conference

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Bank of England Interest Rate Decision — Exp: 4.50% Actual: 4.50

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ MPC Official Bank Rate Votes — Exp: 0-2-7 Actual: 0-1-8

12:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Monetary Policy Summary

12:00 🇬🇧 BOE Inflation Letter

12:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 224K Actual: 223K

12:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1890K Actual: 1892K

12:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 8.8 Actual: 12.5

12:30 🇬🇧 ⚡️ BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

14:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 3.95M Actual: 4.26M | 4.2%

16:50 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks

21:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: -235M

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 2.9%


[Updated in real time]