UK inflation has not inspired Pound buying

UK inflation is accelerating, reducing the scope for the Bank of England to ease monetary policy to support economic growth. Headline price growth accelerated to 3.0% in January, up from 2.5% at the end of last year and 1.7% in September - a couple of months after BoE’s rate cut kick-off. Even more striking was the acceleration in the core price index, which excludes volatile food and energy. Its annual rate of growth accelerated to 3.7% from 3.2% the previous month.

UK inflation has been above the 2% target for more than 40 months, which has entrenched elevated inflation expectations, and the monetary easing of recent months has added further fuel to the inflationary fire.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/02/20 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 19.4K Actual: 44.0K

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.1% Actual: 4.1%

00:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: 54.1K | -10.1K

01:00 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate — Exp: 3.10% | 3.60% Actual: 3.10% | 3.60%

13:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: 19.4 Actual: 18.1

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 214K Actual: 219K

13:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1870K Actual: 1869K

17:00 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories — Exp: 3200K Actual: 4633K

19:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michael S. Barr Speaks

21:45 🇳🇿 Trade Balance — Exp: 225M

22:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Adriana D. Kugler Speaks

22:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ RBA Governor Michele Bullock Speaks

23:30 🇯🇵 ⚡️ National Consumer Price Index

23:30 🇯🇵 National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food — Exp: 3.1%


[Updated in real time]

Ebay Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025

- Ebay reversed from the support area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 70.00

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Microsoft Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025

- Microsoft reversed from strong support level 405.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 417.80

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AUDNZD Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025

- AUDNZD reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 1.1100

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Natural gas Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025

- Natural gas broke resistance zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 4.400

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Crypto Market Drifts, But the Tide May Be Turning

The crypto market has moved in waves over the past two and a half weeks, experiencing increased selling on the approach to $3.3 trillion but also finding support on the dips to $3.10 trillion. By the end of the week, it was up to $3.20 trillion.

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has also been fluctuating between fear and neutral since the beginning of February, with recent readings of 49. We continue to believe that without a dip in extreme fear, the crypto market will struggle to find the foundations for a rally.

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#Shorts

#Silver: On the verge of major correction

USDJPY Wave Analysis – 20 February 2025

- USDJPY broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 148.70

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Solana Wave Analysis – 20 February 2025

- Solana reversed from the support zone

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 186.60

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/02/21 (GMT)

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.4% | 0.6% Actual: 1.7% | 1.0%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.9% | 0.5% Actual: 2.1% | 1.2%

08:15 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 45.3 Actual: 45.5

08:15 🇫🇷 Services PMI — Exp: 49.0 Actual: 44.5

08:15 🇫🇷 PMI Composite — Exp: 48.0 Actual: 44.5

08:30 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 45.4 Actual: 46.1

08:30 🇩🇪 Services PMI — Exp: 52.4 Actual: 52.2

08:30 🇩🇪 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.8 Actual: 51.0

09:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 46.9 Actual: 47.3

09:00 🇪🇺 Services PMI — Exp: 51.5 Actual: 50.7

09:00 🇪🇺 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.5 Actual: 50.2

09:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 48.5 Actual: 46.4

09:30 🇬🇧 Services PMI — Exp: 50.8 Actual: 51.1

09:30 🇬🇧 PMI Composite — Exp: 50.5 Actual: 50.5

13:30 🇨🇦 Retail Sales — Exp: 1.8% | 1.7% Actual: 2.5% | 2.7%

14:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 51.3 Actual: 51.6

14:45 🇺🇸 Services PMI — Exp: 53.0 Actual: 49.7

14:45 🇺🇸 PMI Composite Actual: 50.4

15:00 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — Exp: 4.13M Actual: 4.08M | -4.9%

15:00 🇺🇸 UoM Consumer Sentiment — Exp: 67.8 Actual: 64.7

16:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Philip N. Jefferson Speaks

17:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ BOC Governor Tiff Macklem Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Boeing Wave Analysis – 20 February 2025

- Boeing reversed from the resistance zone

- Likely to fall to support level 177.10

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FTSE 100 Wave Analysis – 20 February 2025

- FTSE 100 broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 8600.00

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Crypto market completes initial rebound, nearing key resistance

The cryptocurrency market has added 1.3% in the last 24 hours to $3.24, approaching the upper boundary of the consolidation range after the collapse in early February. Only the ability to rise above $3.3 trillion would signal an exit from consolidation and be a prologue for a return to the $3.50 area or a move to all-time highs near $3.70.

Bitcoin has risen to $98,000, once again trying to break above the 50-day moving average. As with the crypto market, Bitcoin has found enough buyers on dips and has done the easy part with a return to meaningful resistance levels. Only a confident move higher will mark the start of a new rally phase.

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Euro area Manufacturing brightens

Preliminary estimates of PMI business activity indices for eurozone countries came in below expectations, taking away about a third of a per cent from EURUSD in the first hours after the release. However, the rebound in manufacturing activity reinforces expectations of economic acceleration in the coming months.

For France, Germany and across the eurozone, manufacturing PMIs exceeded expectations and earlier estimates, pointing to a further pickup in the recovery. Their upward trend is an important positive for Europe, where the manufacturing sector remains an important leading indicator for the overall economy.

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