Crypto got support, but not yet FOMO

The cryptocurrency market has not been embarrassed by the lacklustre performance of US equities, gaining 1.8% in the last 24 hours to $3.56 trillion. This is the high of the current week but below the market's centre of gravity during the consolidation period from 17 to 26 January. The market is still hesitant to storm to all-time highs, facing increased activity from those looking to lock in profits from last year's crypto rally.

The crypto market sentiment index has been in confident greed territory throughout the week without much change. This is unlike previous periods of euphoria, where FOMO momentum lifted the index into the 90 area vs the current 70.

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Fed Holds Steady, Markets Await the Next Move

The Federal Reserve left its key rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of its January meeting after three consecutive 100 basis point cuts. The markets expected this decision, so their attention was focused on signalling the prospects for further moves.

The Fed continued to tighten its rhetoric, removing any mention of inflation moving towards the 2% target. Later in the press conference, Powell said that we need to see more progress in reducing inflation and the actual impact of rates. Premature action in this situation may not be effective.

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Ethereum Wave Analysis 30 January 2025

- Ethereum reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 3340.00

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FTSE 100 Index Wave Analysis 30 January 2025

- FTSE 100 Index broke resistance level 8450.00

- Likely to rise to resistance level 8800.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/01/31 (GMT)

08:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Rate — Exp: 6.2% Actual: 6.2%

08:55 🇩🇪 Unemployment Change — Exp: 14K Actual: 11K

13:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.1% | 2.6% Actual: -0.2% | 2.3%

13:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised — Exp: -0.2% | 2.8% Actual: -0.2% | 2.8%

13:30 🇨🇦 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: -0.1% | 1.6% Actual: -0.2% | 1.5%

13:30 🇺🇸 Employment Cost Index — Exp: 0.9% Actual: 0.9%

13:30 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index — Exp: 0.2% | 2.8% Actual: 0.2% | 2.8%

13:30 🇺🇸 Personal Spending — Exp: 0.5% Actual: 0.7%

13:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Morgan Stanley Wave Analysis – 30 January 2025

Morgan Stanley is rising inside impulse wave iv

Likely to rise to the resistance level of 145.00.

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IBM Wave Analysis 30 January 2025

- IBM opened with a sharp upward gap

- Likely to rise to the resistance level 260.00

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Crypto: Quiet Recovery

The crypto market has increased by 0.4% to $3.57 trillion over the last 24 hours but is still 1.4% below last week's levels. Cryptocurrencies are slowly and rather erratically climbing out of the dip they fell into on Monday. The market remains sensitive to negative news but is recovering cautiously, avoiding excessive optimism.

The sentiment index on Friday reached 76 (extreme greed)—the highest level in the last two and a half weeks. Although the absence of clearly expressed FOMO may not please the bulls, who were hoping for a quick profit like previous bullish cycles, such an ascent is often more sustainable in traditional markets.

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#Shorts

#USDJPY: A Start of an uptrend

GBPUSD Wave Analysis – 31 January 2025

- GBPUSD reversed from the key resistance level 1.2500

- Likely to fall to support level at 1.2300

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Gold Wave Analysis – 31 January 2025

- Gold broke resistance area

- Likely to rise to resistance level 2789.00

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The stock market changes priorities

US indices opened the week with a sharp collapse. The news media unanimously attributed this decline to the strong results of DeepSeek, a Chinese competitor of OpenAI's ChatGPT. The news that a strong network can be trained on obsolete Nvidia chips at ten times lower cost pulled sales of the entire sector, led by Nvidia. Last year's AI leader is struggling to regain momentum.

The markets overall are now gently recovering. The Nasdaq100 recovered 90% of its opening loss to the low point, managing to quickly bounce back into the area above the 50-day moving average. This is an important signal of the continuation of the trend from September.

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Gold is on the upswing

Gold has hit record highs, moving into territory above 2800. Strong buying following the November-December correction suggests the end of the correction phase and the beginning of a new growth cycle.

A breakout to new highs activates a Fibonacci expansion pattern. The fundamental upside momentum in gold started in October 2023 and formed a peak at the end of October 2024. This was followed by a correction to 76.4% of the initial rally, which is typical of strong bull markets. The formal technical target now looks to be the $3,400 per troy ounce area. This is more than 20% above current levels but is achievable in the two- to four-quarter timeframe.

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What is next: US Job Market and BoE Rate decision

The new week will focus on the US labour market and the UK rate decision.

On Tuesday, 4 February, the focus is on the new US job opening statistics. The indicator's fall over the past two years was viewed with alarm, but the figure has stabilised in the region of the 2019 highs. A rise would be a strong positive signal.

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Dow Jones index Wave Analysis – 31 January 2025

- Dow Jones reversed from strong resistance level 45000.00

- Likely to fall to support level 44235.00

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AT&T Wave Analysis – 31 January 2025

- AT&T reversed from long-term resistance level 25.00

- Likely to fall to support level 23.00.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/02/03 (GMT)

00:30 🇦🇺 Retail Sales — Exp: -0.7% Actual: -0.1%

01:45 🇨🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 50.6 Actual: 50.1

08:50 🇫🇷 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 45.3 Actual: 45.0

08:55 🇩🇪 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 44.1 Actual: 45.0

09:00 🇪🇺 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 46.1 Actual: 46.6

09:30 🇬🇧 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 48.2 Actual: 48.3

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.5%

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.6% Actual: 2.7%

12:00 All OPEC-JMMC Meetings

14:30 🇨🇦 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Actual: 51.6

14:45 🇺🇸 Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 50.1 Actual: 51.2

15:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ ISM Manufacturing PMI — Exp: 49.3 Actual: 50.9

17:30 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Crypto market amid US tariffs

Cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell to $3.0 trillion against a peak of $3.62 trillion on Friday night. The main reason for the fall was the reaction of traditional finance to the duties imposed by the US on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China. A period of low liquidity prior to Asian trading led to a 17% fluctuation when robots and stop-orders dominated the market. Later in the European session, the market stabilised around the $3.11 trillion mark.

Bitcoin has lost more than 14% from last week’s peak, hitting a low near $91,000 at the start of trading on Monday. This collapse could lead to a break of support at the 50-day moving average. So far, bitcoin closed below it on Sunday, which intensified the sell-off. However, the close of trading on Monday will be decisive. A return above the $99,000 level could help accelerate the upside.

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