UK inflation: below expectations but above target

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) added 0.3% m/m in December, slightly below the average expectation of 0.4%. Annual inflation eased to 2.5%, having remained mostly in the 2.0-2.5% range for the past nine months. This is quite a long period without a significant decline and with some upward bias.

Core consumer inflation was 3.2% y/y in December, having remained in the 3.2-3.5% range for the past eight months. This figure is well above the 2% target and without a clear downward trend. As a higher reading was expected, the report probably stirred the bears, but did not allow them to play up to their full potential due to US inflation expectations.

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EURGPB Wave Analysis 15 January 2025

- EURGPB reversed from multi-month resistance level 0.8445

- Likely to fall to support level 0.8380

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EURUSD Wave Analysis 15 January 2025

- EURUSD reversed from key support level 1.0225

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.0425

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/01/16 (GMT)

00:00 🇦🇺 MI Inflation Gauge Actual: 4.0%

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Unemployment Rate — Exp: 4.0% Actual: 4.0%

00:30 🇦🇺 ⚡️ Employment Change — Exp: 14.5K Actual: 56.3K

00:30 🇦🇺 Part-Time Employment Change Actual: -23.7K | 80.0K

07:00 🇬🇧 ⚡️ Gross Domestic Product — Exp: 0.2% | 0.1% Actual: 0.1% | 0.0%

07:00 🇬🇧 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.1% | -1.0% Actual: -0.4% | -1.8%

07:00 🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production — Exp: -0.2% | -0.4% Actual: -0.3% | -1.2%

07:00 🇬🇧 Goods Trade Balance — Exp: -18.0B Actual: -19.3B

07:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 0.4% | 2.6% Actual: 0.5% | 2.6%

07:00 🇩🇪 Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised — Exp: 0.7% | 2.9% Actual: 0.7% | 2.8%

09:30 🇬🇧 BOE Credit Conditions Survey

12:30 🇪🇺 ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Unemployment Claims — Exp: 210K Actual: 217K

13:30 🇺🇸 Continuing Claims — Exp: 1870K Actual: 1859K

13:30 🇺🇸 ⚡️ Retail Sales — Exp: 0.6% | 0.5% Actual: 0.4% | 0.4%

13:30 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index — Exp: -5.2 Actual: 44.3

16:00 🇺🇸 FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks

21:30 🇳🇿 Business NZ Manufacturing Index


[Updated in real time]

Bitcoin hits $100K again, XRP tests highs

Crypto market capitalization rose another 3.4% in 24 hours to $3.5 trillion, recovering to levels seen before the January 7 sell-off. Both the decline at the beginning of the month and the latest recovery are due to U.S. economic data, which temporarily has an unusually strong impact on cryptocurrencies. Recently, crypto lacks its own drivers, other than Ripple's case against the SEC and its impact on XRP.

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $100K on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, stabilizing near $99,600 by the start of active trading in Europe. The price closed Wednesday above the 50-day moving average (bullish signal), but this may just be another test of a meaningful round level. The selling activation after surpassing $100K is still clearly visible.

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/01/17 (GMT)

02:00 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Real GDP — Exp: 1.6% | 5.0% Actual: 1.6% | 5.4%

02:00 🇨🇳 ⚡️ Real GDP (YTD) — Exp: 4.9% Actual: 5.0%

02:00 🇨🇳 Fixed Asset Investment — Exp: 3.3% Actual: 3.2%

02:00 🇨🇳 Industrial Production — Exp: 5.4% | 5.7% Actual: 6.2% | 5.8%

02:00 🇨🇳 NBS Press Conference

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales With Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.4% | 4.2% Actual: -0.3% | 3.6%

07:00 🇬🇧 Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel — Exp: 0.1% | 3.6% Actual: -0.6% | 2.9%

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index — Exp: 2.4% Actual: 2.4%

10:00 🇪🇺 Consumer Price Index - Core — Exp: 2.7% Actual: 2.7%

13:30 🇺🇸 Building Permits — Exp: 1460K | -2.2% Actual: 1483K | -0.7%

13:30 🇺🇸 Housing Starts — Exp: 1330K | 3.2% Actual: 1499K | 15.8%

14:15 🇺🇸 Industrial Production — Exp: 0.3% Actual: 0.9%


[Updated in real time]

GBPCAD Wave Analysis 16 January 2025

- GBPCAD reversed from strong support level 1.7490

- Likely to rise to resistance level 1.7700

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EURJPY Wave Analysis 16 January 2025

- EURJPY broke support zone

- Likely to fall to support level 158.00

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#Shorts

#EURJPY: A triangle breakout

The crypto market keeps its pace

The cryptocurrency market increased by 2.7% in the past 24 hours, reaching $3.6 trillion. It is returning to levels seen on January 7th and has been maintaining steady growth since the beginning of the week. Successful consolidation at these levels could pave the way to historical highs observed in December, effectively ending the period of corrective pullback and consolidation.

Crypto market sentiment remains in the ‘Greed’ territory, with values recording 75 for the second consecutive day. These figures indicate significant buyer interest but are not yet indicative of an overbought market.

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Dollar and US indices reverse as inflation fears ease

The dollar started the week touching the 110 level on the DXY, hitting more than two-year highs but was under pressure for most of the week. The dollar peaked when markets were experiencing their most hawkish expectations for the key rate, with a 32% chance being priced in that the rate would not be cut before the end of the year. Now the probability of that outcome has been decreased to 14%, taking 0.7% away from the dollar index.

The dollar bulls have nothing to fear for now. Their dominance is clearly visible on the chart in the form of a flat growth trend since the beginning of October last year, which is replaced by relatively short-lived corrections. Technically, we will be able to talk about the breaking of the upward trend only when DXY falls below 108, and now it is at 109.

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What is next: Trump 2.0 and the BoJ hike 

On Monday, January 20th, U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day celebrations, which will affect the trading hours of exchange-traded instruments such as U.S. stocks, indices and futures. Trump's inauguration is scheduled for the same day, which may affect trading dynamics in the currency market and global stock markets.

On Tuesday, the dynamics of the Canadian dollar can be affected by the report on consumer inflation. Since August, this indicator has fallen to the 2% target for the Bank of Canada, allowing it to reduce the rate to support the economy. But the big question now is whether the 7% inflation rate spurred the Loonie's collapse over the last quarter. A CPI acceleration could support the Canadian dollar on a reassessment of the outlook.

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AUDCAD Wave Analysis 17 January 2025

- AUDCAD reversed from support zone

- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9000

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Nasdaq-100 Wave Analysis 17 January 2025

- Nasdaq-100 broke daily down channel

- Likely to rise to resistance level 21850.00

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🗓 Economic Calendar at 2025/01/20 (GMT)

01:00 🇨🇳 Loan Prime Rate — Exp: 3.10% | 3.60% Actual: 3.10% | 3.60%

08:00 All World Economic Forum Annual Meetings Actual: День 1

17:00 🇺🇸 ⚡️ President Donald Trump Speaks


[Updated in real time]

Bitcoin and Solana Reach New Heights

The cryptocurrency market witnessed a significant surge in volatility, reaching an all-time high of $3.72 trillion in total capitalisation on Monday morning. This growth was driven by the successful launch of meme coins associated with Trump and his wife, Melania, whose substantial capitalisation growth positively impacted the entire market.

On Monday, prior to the commencement of the active European session, Bitcoin soared to $109.9K, setting a new record high. Subsequently, the price stabilised around $108K. Consolidation at this level may initiate a new growth phase with a potential target of $133K.

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Stock Gains Potentially Poised for Extension, Building Momentum

Nasdaq-100 futures are currently approximately 3% below their all-time highs, while the S&P 500 is down by less than 2% from its highs. However, fear has been driving stock markets for over a month now, according to a widely recognised sentiment index. This divergence suggests further potential upside for stocks rather than indications of a problem.

In the latter half of December, the sentiment index entered fear territory, reaching extreme levels. Despite this, equity indices have been on an upward trajectory, although the sentiment index continues to lag behind.

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