Forex Chief Global
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​XTI/USD #XTIUSD
The decline in the number of active oil rigs (according to Baker Hughes) is a temporary effect of Hurricane Ida, but still represents a positive for oil in the short term. The reasons for the slowdown in the US economy are also temporary. OPEC has left the plan to increase oil production unchanged; there is no progress in negotiations on Iran's nuclear agreement. Technically, prices need a strong correction, although the mid-term trend is still up.
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​#ForexChief #ZEW #forexnews #FRS #ECB #BOE #worldnews #forexmarket
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πŸ“Š Market focus: events of the current week
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πŸ‘‰ On Thursday evening, we will be waiting for insiders on the discussions at the ECB meeting; during the week, we will pay attention to the statistics - the German ZEW index and the Eurozone GDP, as well as the speech of the BOE head, Bailey, and the GBP data block on Friday.
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The interviews and comments of the FRS officials will prepare the markets for the meeting on September 22; we will listen to everyone attentively.
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Fans of Asian assets should carefully study the results of the next dairy auction, which is actively affecting assets with the participation of the New Zealand dollar.
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Specified time is GMT Offset 0
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Tuesday, 7
AUD: RBA Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement (04:30)
GBP: Halifax House Price Index (06:00); BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks (07:30)
EUR: German Industrial Production (06:00); ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Current Conditions, GDP (09:00)
NZD: GlobalDairyTrade Price Index (15:30)
JPY: GDP (Q2) (23:50)
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Wednesday, 8
AUD: NAB Business Confidence (01:30); RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks (08:10)
USD: JOLTs Job Openin gs (14:00); Beige Book (18:00); API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30)
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Thursday, 9
CNY: CPI, PPI, New Loans (01:30)
AUD: RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks (08:35)
EUR: ECB Marginal Lending Facility, Monetary Policy Statement, Interest Rate Decision (11:45); ECB Press Conference (12:30)
USD: Initial Jobless Claims (12:30); Crude Oil Inventories (15:00)
NZD: Electronic Card Retail Sales (22:45)
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Friday, 10
GBP: GDP, Manufacturing, Industrial Production, Trade Balance (06:00)
EUR: German CPI (06:00); Eurogroup Meetings (10:00)
USD: PPI, Core PPI (12:30)
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​#ForexChief #Eurozone #forexnews #ECB #NFP #worldnews #forexmarket
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πŸš€ ECB is looking for an optimal pace again
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πŸ‘‰ The weak US NFP has confused the cards and the ECB's decision no longer seems transparent and unambiguous, the economic reports of the Eurozone are coming out better than expected, the financial conditions are optimistic, so the forecasts at the September 9 meeting should be adjusted upward. It is obvious that the ECB is ready to cut the QE PEPP program, but it is extremely important not to outstrip similar steps by the FRS, otherwise, the growth of the euro will slow down the recovery of the Eurozone economy and tighten external financial conditions.
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It is clear that the ECB needs to slow down the pace of asset buying under the PEPP program, but now it is difficult to predict the outcome of the discussion since experts will be guided not only by progress in the growth of inflation and the economy but also by opinions about the duration and strength of the market reaction. Moreover, the pandemic factor in the form of COVID-Delta strain introduces additional uncertainty in the reasoning of politicians.
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An exchange of views on the ECB rate correction is not relevant, at least until the end of the year. A compromise solution for the euro QE will be a tangible decrease in the rate of GKOs buying from the Eurozone countries compared to the third quarter, but the program is still far from a full stop.
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In any case, the more aggressive the ECB's rhetoric will be in the official statement and in subsequent comments, the more actively the euro will grow.
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πŸ’± Stock trading: what you need to know
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πŸ“Š Unlike direct trading on the stock market, CFDs are leveraged to maximize profit potential. We remind you that in this case, potential losses also increase. So …
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The parameters we need are specified in the specification of the trading asset. To open a position, a trader needs to pay only a part of the total transaction value. For CFD assets, the margin is traditionally indicated as a percentage. Look in the specification, for example, for APPL shares - the primary margin is 20%, which means the leverage level is 1:5. Remember, the higher the leverage, the lower the margin level, but for stocks, leverage greater than 1:20 is extremely rare.
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For some brokers, the leverage may vary by session type and/or position size. For example, within a day on a regular session (initial margin) the leverage can be 1:20 (or 5%), and when carried over to the next day (maintenance margin) - already 1:10 (10%). Also, the leverage can be adjusted before weekends or holidays - carefully study the Margin Requirements, otherwise, in case of an unexpected (for you!) Change in the leverage, the collateral on your deposit may not be enough and your positions will be automatically closed at the current price.
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We recommend choosing a broker with fixed leverage conditions.
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​#ForexChief #Apple #forexnews #AppStore #AAPL #worldnews #stock
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πŸ’± Incredible, but it happened! Apple has shared its profit!
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πŸ“Š The pressure on large corporations by state regulators is bearing fruit. Apple has decided to exempt streaming platforms from fees: the App Store has become more democratic for some types of mobile applications.
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On September 1, Apple officially allowed apps that provide users with a content subscription system to post links to their sites. Now it will be possible to make payments not only in the application but also on the official online resource of the company. This will free developers from having to pay Apple a 15-30% commission on every App Store purchase. The new rules will take effect from 01/01/2022 for all countries, without restrictions.
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Such a change in App Store policy is a compulsory measure. While in the United States there is only a bill prohibiting app stores from forcing developers to pay through proprietary billing systems, regulators in Japan and South Korea immediately called this behavior a violation of the laws of fair competition. So, Apple decided to adjust the trading conditions so that the Japan Fair Trade Commission would end the antitrust investigation.
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This situation has already positively affected not only AAPL but also the shares of Spotify, Netflix, and Match Group, as investors reacted to the short-term victory in the competition.
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Profits to y’all!
​#Profits #ForexChief #forexsignals
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πŸ’± Target levels and forecast for the week 13.09 - 17.09
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EUR/USD #EURUSD
The ECB nevertheless slowed down the rate of buying of GKOs from the Eurozone countries within the framework of the PEPP program in the 4th quarter. The bullish impulse of speculators has not been developed - there is still too much negativity associated with European policy in the market. The selling priority remains.
​GBP/USD #GBPUSD
Bailey surprised the markets with a statement that all the conditions for the BOE rate hike have been met, but the British Central Bank is not ready to decide. The EU extended the grace period for Northern Ireland indefinitely for an undefined period, but this may affect the GBP rate only at the end of the year. Looking up in the medium term, we pay attention to reports on the labor market, inflation, and retail sales.
​USD/JPY #USDJPY
The pair has a good chance of breaking out of the range thanks to the statistics released this week. The buying priority remains, but the decisive impulse should be given by the USD or any problematic situations in the region.
​XTI/USD #XTIUSD
Last week, reports on oil inventories came out in different directions, but falling gasoline inventories help maintain optimism in the medium term. Tomorrow, the IEA will provide its monthly review of the oil market - it is worth analyzing how it correlates with the OPEC report, which is due to appear today.
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​#ForexChief #Lagarde #forexnews #FRS #ECB #worldnews #forexmarket
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πŸ“Š Market focus: events of the current week
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πŸ‘‰ All statistics published this week are unlikely to cause proper activity of speculators, but you should pay attention to the British and Asian data.
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The Fed began the silence period before the September 22 meeting.
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Last week, the ECB made a tough decision, so it will be resting and remain silent. Lagarde on Thursday will delight with a speech on changes in the economy, but the main ideas will be devoted to the climate.
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The 76th session of the UN General Assembly will open in New York today, and Apple will unveil a new line of smartphones and other products. The comments of financiers and politicians can be interesting.
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Specified time is GMT Offset 0
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Tuesday, 14
AUD: House Price Index NAB Business Confidence (01:30)
JPY: Industrial Production (04:30)
GBP: Average Earnings Index +Bonus, Claimant Count Change, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate (06:00)
USD: Core CPI, CPI (12:30)
NZD: Current Account (22:45)
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Wednesday, 15
AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment (00:30)
CNY: Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Chinese Industrial Production (02:00)
JPY: Tertiary Industry Activity Index (04:30); Exports, Trade Balance (23:50)
GBP: CPI, PPI Input (06:00)
USD: Export-Import Price Index (12:30); Industrial Production (13:15); Crude Oil, Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (14:30)
NZD: GDP (22:45)
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Thursday, 16
AUD: Employment, Full Employment Change, Unemployment Rate (01:30)
USD: Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales Initial Jobless Claims (12:30); Business Inventories (14:00)
EUR: Trade Balance (09:00)
NZD: Business NZ PMI (22:30)
JPY: National Core CPI (23:30)
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Friday, 17
GBP: Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales (06:00)
EUR: CPI, Core CPI (09:00)
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​#ForexChief #gas #forexnews #EuropeanEnergyExchange #ETF #worldnews #forexmarket
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πŸ‘‰ β€œGolden” gas: prices finish off those who survived after the pandemic
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πŸš€ Since the beginning of the year, natural gas has more than doubled in price; a price rebound hit the US last week. For the first time since February 2014, Futures for the October delivery of gas condensate cost more than $5 per mmBTU, and experts expect a price of more than $10 - this is the level of the crisis of 2008.
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The situation is aggravated because storage facilities, especially European ones, are practically empty: a sharp drop in supplies with active demand in the process of the global economic recovery after the lockdown is reflected. US supplies still have not recovered from the hurricane - 77.3% of production in the Gulf of Mexico is still closed. Although American raw materials cost more than $20 for Europe and Asia, large Asian players are actively buying liquefied gas, which complicates restocking...
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In Europe, a lack of fuel will lead to higher winter heating bills and critical energy costs - the average consumer bill will rise by at least 25%. Electricity prices, for example, for Germany, on the European Energy Exchange (EEE) are already updating their all-time highs at €95 per MWh.
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The dynamics of reserves and the desire to catch speculative hype cause the growth of companies’ shares specializing in the production and processing of gas: EQT, Range Resources, Cabot Oil and Gas, Antero Resources, among ETFs the United States Natural Gas Fund is again popular.
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So we don’t waste the moment and make money.
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​#ForexChief #DAX30 #trading #forexschool #forexeducation #DAX40 #Porsche #MDAX
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πŸ’± DAX is being updated! What should a small investor do?
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πŸ“Š Germany's largest stock index has carried out the most ambitious reform since its inception: a list of companies that "transform" DAX30 into DAX40 has been identified.
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From September 20, 10 members will be added to DAX: Airbus, Zalando, Siemens Healthineers, Symrise, HelloFresh, Sartorius, Porsche Automobil Holding, Brenntag, Puma and Qiagen. They "migrated" from the mid-cap group (MDAX). Analysts expect a positive effect from this rebalancing - the DAX becomes more diversified, and the reporting conditions become more stringent, but transparent.
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When investors from America, Saudi Arabia, or China invest in Europe, they always pay attention to the DAX, although this index cannot be considered an absolute indicator: the modern German economy is too dependent on the global euro exchange rate.
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German burghers love to invest in shares of DAX components and, of course, choosing from 40 companies instead of 30 is more attractive. But the market is not expecting a special β€œfireworks” of prices - index speculators have long bought up free shares of new participants.
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But we also have a chance! We can:
β–ͺ️ Carry out operations with an index in the form of CFDs;
β–ͺ️ Buy CFDs on companies’ shares included in the DAX40;
β–ͺ️ Invest in ETFs with the participation of the indexes of the DAX group;
β–ͺ️ Use DAX40 for effective market analysis.
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​#ForexChief #dividends #trading #forexschool #forexeducation #stock
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πŸ”” Stock Trading: Attention, Dividends!
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βŒ› Dividend stocks are a great way to beat inflation and provide additional risk insurance for your operations in the derivatives market. But it is important to buy them on time.
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Let’s remind: Dividend is a part of the profit that is paid to shareholders for each purchased share. In the case of CFDs on shares, the broker pays the β€œDividend Adjustment”, but the essence and the amount of the process do not change.
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There are three key dates in the dividend calendar.
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Declared Date: The paid amount per share is published. This happens a few days after the meeting of the main shareholders, where the company’s profit is announced and the amount of dividends is determined.
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Ex-dividend Date: the list of shareholders owning shares, or in our case, CFDs per share, is fixed. You must own a share or buy a CFD at least 1 trading day before the opening of the trading session on the day the ledger is fixed.
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Pay Date: the day of payment, provided that the share was bought on the day the registry was fixed.
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The principal thing is to own a share (or CFD) on the day the registry is fixed so that you are included in the list of shareholders entitled to a dividend. After the Ex-dividend Date, you can sell the share (or close the position) before the payout date.
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Important: if at the time of the Ex-dividend Date you have a Sell position on the CFD and not a Buy position, then you will receive a loss - the amount of the dividend adjustment will be deducted from your deposit on the day of payment. Most often, dividends are paid 3-4 times a year (after quarterly reports), but there are exceptions.
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We will tell you how to choose the right dividend stock in the next post.
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Profits to y’all!
​#Profits #ForexChief #forexsignals
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πŸ’± Target levels and forecast for the week
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#EURUSD EUR/USD
The dynamics are determined only by fundamental factors. Sellers prevail in the distribution of volumes, but the percentage of speculative positions is high. Buying can be considered only on a confident breakdown of the 1.1850 zone, but there are no serious reasons for this.
​#GBPUSD GBP/USD
Despite the activity of speculators, the priority of sellers is weakening. Before the BOE meeting, speculators need to work out the pending volumes below 1.3650 and turn up. Medium-term buying is recommended only on a confident breakdown of the 1.3880/1,3920 zone.
​#USDJPY USD/JPY
There is a slight priority for buying, but this balance depends on the fundamental background of the USD. For normal growth, a breakdown of the 110.50 zone is needed. On a confident breakdown (with a retest) of the zone of 109 downward, cautious sales to the zone of protection 108.00/107.50 are possible.
​#XTIUSD XTI/USD
Upon opening new positions, should be considered the intensification of negotiations on Iran's nuclear agreement and the decision of the Chinese government on September 24 to pour 7.38 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves into the markets.
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​#ForexChief #Powell #forexnews #Dubai #PMI #worldnews #forexmarket #FOMC
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πŸ“Š Market focus: events of the current week
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πŸ‘‰ Gastech’s 2021 conference will open in Dubai today; its results will interest those who trade with gas and oil assets.
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The busiest day is Thursday:
β–ͺ️ The BOE meeting may reverse the Pound rate if the regulator confirms the decision on the need to curtail the QE program at the end of this year and on a possible rate hike next year. We pay special attention to the PMI of industry and services in the UK.
β–ͺ️ The ECB will meet for an unscheduled private meeting, which was scheduled after the publication in the Financial Times of the insider about Lane’s meeting with German bankers - it is necessary to agree on a common position for media appearances. No official announcements are expected.
β–ͺ️ There will be a final debate of six candidates for the post of German chancellor before the elections on September 26 - the EUR can get nervous.
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Powell will open a public debate on post-pandemic recovery as part of the Fed Listens initiative, on Friday, but no new ideas are expected.
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Specified time is GMT Offset 0
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Tuesday, 21
USD: Building Permits (12:30); API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30)
NZD: GlobalDairyTrade Price Index (Tentative 15:00)
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Wednesday, 22
CNY: PBoC Loan Prime Rate (01:30)
JPY: BoJ Monetary Policy Statement, Press Conference (03:00)
USD: Existing Home Sales (14:00); Crude Oil Inventories (14:30); FOMC Economic Projections, Statement, Fed Interest Rate Decision (18:00); Press Conference (18:30)
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Thursday, 23
EUR: Manufacturing, Markit Composite, Services PMI (08:00)
GBP: Composite, Manufacturing, Services PMI (08:30); BoE Interest Rate Decision, QE Total (11:00)
USD: Initial Jobless Claims (12:30); Manufacturing, Markit Composite, Services PMI (13:45)
NZD: Trade Balance (22:45)
JPY: National Core CPI (23:30)
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Friday, 24
JPY: Services PMI (00:30)
USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks, New Home Sales (14:00)
GBP: MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks (13:00)
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​#ForexChief #QE #forexnews #Fed #Powell #worldnews #forexmarket
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πŸ›οΈ Again the Fed: is it worth to be afraid of QE curtailing?
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πŸ’΅ Everything you need to start the normalization of the Fed’s monetary policy is already in place: strong statistics on retail sales confirm that the US economy has adapted to the pandemic. The number of vacancies guarantees a quick recovery of the market, and the increased inflation will force the Fed to aggressively raise rates.
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All this is favourable for the USD, at least in the medium term. But the likelihood that the reform of monetary policy will not take place again is still high.
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The Fed will present its forecasts for 2024, and if the markets see only 1 rate hike in 2022 and 6-8 rate hikes in 2023-2024, then the reaction will be very negative with risk aversion amid a rising USD.
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The market is nervous because it cannot estimate the rate of decline in asset buying. If the Fed is now curtailing the QE program by $15 billion and the next round of correction is scheduled for December, then the USD will fall on the first reaction and quickly recover. But Powell avoids specifics with the last bit of strength, as he is trying to bargain for a second term as the head of the Fed and only then makes more logical decisions based on current economic data. The principal thing for him now is not to collapse the stock and debt markets.
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We believe that the current meeting will be calm, in the style of β€œanalysing the data, waiting for progress”, because the decision on the appointment of the head of the FRS should be made in the upcoming days.
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Profits to y'all!
​#ForexChief #SPD #forexnews #ECB #Eurozone #worldnews #forexmarket
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πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί European choice: what is the danger of the German joker?
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πŸ“Š The impact of the elections results in Germany on the future of the Eurozone, ECB policy, and the euro exchange rate are greatly underestimated by the market. The new German policy is a very dangerous factor that can lead to the launch of additional fiscal stimuli and a cardinal transformation in the Eurozone.
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Recent polls show that SPD leader and incumbent Treasury Olaf Scholz keeps priority in the race for the post of German Chancellor. Unlike the policies of Merkel and the CDU/CSU alliance, Scholz is in favor of Eurobonds and the transformation of the Eurozone into the "United States of Europe", that is, he supports Macron's political plan.
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The lack of seats in parliament can be considered a serious problem for the SPD, but its alliance with GRÜNE activists, who also dream of a new Europe, is quite possible. But if Scholz has to build a coalition with the CDU/CSU, then the initiatives to transform the Eurozone will again be postponed.
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If you have to seek an alliance with the third party (FDP), then its leader, Christian Linder, will immediately demand the post of finance minister. He advocates the austerity regime, a return to Germany's national debt at 60% of GDP, an increase in the minimum wage, and a limit on the costs of German taxpayers on global European goals.
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Any coalition led by a chancellor from the SPD party will be positive for the euro, but do not forget that the last time the negotiations on the creation of the coalition lasted over two months. So we look and listen attentively and do not risk in vain.
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Profits to y'all!