Frontline Data Lab
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A data-driven NGO monitoring ceasefire violations and conflict indicators in the Russia-Ukraine war.

In this channel you can find an early warning tool that tracks domestic military, political, and economic indicators in Ukraine and Russia that may signa
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WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓 December 1st - December 7th, 2025

🟥 Russian Attacks on Ukraine

🛩 Drone strikes
•1487 UAVs (Shahed-type, Gerbera and other types) launched from Kursk, Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk,Hvardiiske (ToT Crimea), Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RF)
• 1059 neutralised
source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes
• 59 missiles strikes launched from, Kursk, Bryansk, Ryazan, and Crimea (UA)
•34 neutralised
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU and Ukrainian Air Force @kpszu

💥 Airstrikes
•1114 KAB/UMPK strikes
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU

🧍‍♂️casualties
• 50 killed
• 344 injured
source: @CIT_shellings
🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast 12/12/2025

🇺🇦 Ukrainian advances: Ukrainian forces have carried out several offensive attacks in the Kupyansk direction achieving major success in making breakthroughs into the city central region. Ukrainian forces were able to advance from Moskovka and entirely cut off Russian forces in the northwestern districts of Kupyansk by reaching the right bank of the Oskil River.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes:both pro Ukrainian and neutral mapping projects (Deepstate map and Suriyak Map) have confirmed the new territorial changes following verified drone footage showing Ukrainian forces moving through the city and near to the Oskil river bank.

📚Open-Source Information: geolocated footage released by Russian sources shows Ukrainian forces being targeted by drones in the north western sections of the city near the Oskil river acknowledging Ukrainian counter offensive actions. Locations were also geolocated to Kindrashivka and Radkivka.


🎯Strategic Value: The newly established Ukrainian positions within Kupyansk have placed significant operational pressure on Russian forces by effectively isolating their units concentrated in the city’s central sector. By advancing and securing portions of the right bank of the Oskil River, Ukrainian forces have severed a key logistical corridor previously used by Russian troops for resupply, reinforcement, and troop rotation. This disruption has not only constrained Russian sustainment capabilities but has also undermined their ability to mount a coordinated defense within the city central regions.
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓 December 8th - December 14th, 2025

🟥 Russian Attacks on Ukraine

🛩 Drone strikes
•1206 UAVs (Shahed-type, Gerbera and other types) launched from Kursk, Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk,Hvardiiske (ToT Crimea), Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RF)
• 954 neutralised
source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes
• 35 missiles strikes launched from, Kursk, Bryansk, Ryazan, and Crimea (UA)
• 15 neutralised
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU and Ukrainian Air Force @kpszu

💥 Airstrikes
•913 KAB/UMPK strikes
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU

🧍‍♂️casualties
• 35 killed
• 165 injured
source: @CIT_shellings
2x WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓 December 15th - December 28th, 2025 (14 days)

🟥 Russian Attacks on Ukraine

🛩 Drone strikes
•2353 UAVs (Shahed-type, Gerbera and other types) launched from Kursk, Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk,Hvardiiske (ToT Crimea), Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RF)
• 1892 neutralised
source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes
• 87 missiles strikes launched from, Kursk, Bryansk, Ryazan, and Crimea (UA)
• 63 neutralised
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU and Ukrainian Air Force @kpszu

💥 Airstrikes
• 1891 KAB/UMPK strikes
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU

🧍‍♂️casualties
• 82 killed
• 587 injured
source: @CIT_shellings
🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Krasnopillya, Sumy Oblast 01/01/2026

🇷🇺Russian advances: Russian forces have continued operations along the newly opened Krasnopillya frontline attacking a Ukrainian stronghold near Hrabovs’ke. Russian forces continue to advance deeper within the Sumy region via assaulting Ukrainian positions along the nearby railway network. These assaults consist of FPV drone, artillery and infantry strikes.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes: both Ukrainian and neutral mapping projects (Deepstate Map and Suriyak Map) have acknowledged Russian offensive operations within the region, geolocated footage released by Russian forces showcasing Russian assaults within the region also confirm ongoing hostilities.

📚Open-Source Information: geolocated footage released by Russian sources shows Ukrainian forces being targeted by drones and infantry in a trench position along the Krasnopillya railway tracks. Snowfall in the video also confirms that the video was recently recorded likely in the last 32 hours (possibly sooner).

🎯Strategic Value: Russian forces are looking to mount more pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces by expanding their buffer zone along the international border of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. This expands Russian presence within the Sumy region forcing Ukraine to commit more reserves to these regions thereby reducing available combat power for the Donbas, where Russia’s primary offensive focus remains.
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓 December 29th 2025 - January 4th, 2026

🟥 Russian Attacks on Ukraine

🛩 Drone strikes
•680 UAVs (Shahed-type, Gerbera and other types) launched from Kursk, Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk,Hvardiiske (ToT Crimea), Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RF)
• 555 neutralised
source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes
•6 missiles strikes launched from, Kursk, Bryansk and Crimea (UA)
• 1 neutralised
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU and Ukrainian Air Force @kpszu

💥 Airstrikes
•1082 KAB/UMPK strikes
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU

🧍‍♂️casualties
• 11 killed
• 89 injured
source: @CIT_shellings
🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Kup’yans’k, Kharkiv Oblast 11/01/2026

🇷🇺Russian advances: In response to Ukrainian counter offensive actions within the city of Kup’yans’k, Kharkiv Oblast, Russian forces launched a large motorised assault, advancing 11km deep behind Ukrainian lines from the locality of Pishchane successfully entering the territory of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi and Podoly threatening to cut off Ukrainian forces positioned in the eastern industrial sector of Kup’yans’k as well as outter eastern settlements.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes: Suriyak Map has acknowledged Russian offensive operations within the region, geolocated footage released by Russian forces showcasing Russian assaults within the region also confirm ongoing hostilities within the city of Kup’yans’k-Vuzlovyi.

📚Open-Source Information: geolocated footage released by Russian sources show a Russian flag flying from the a house geolocated to be positioned within the settlement of Podoly.

🎯Strategic Value: Russian forces are seeking to encircle Ukrainian positions in the eastern sectors of Kup’yans’k, applying sustained pressure that has significantly slowed Ukrainian offensive operations within the city. The successful Russian motorized assault into Kup’yans’k-Vuzlovyi has further exacerbated the situation by severing the only remaining operational supply line into eastern Kup’yans’k, critically degrading Ukrainian sustainment and freedom of maneuver in the sector.
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓 January 5th - January 11th, 2026

🟥 Russian Attacks on Ukraine

🛩 Drone strikes
•935 UAVs (Shahed-type, Gerbera and other types) launched from Kursk, Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk,Hvardiiske (ToT Crimea), Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RF)
•786 neutralised
source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes
•56 missiles strikes launched from, Kursk, Bryansk, Crimea (UA), Black Sea and Kapustin Yar test site
• 19 neutralised
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU and Ukrainian Air Force @kpszu

💥 Airstrikes
•1089 KAB/UMPK strikes
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU

🧍‍♂️casualties
• 58 killed
• 202 injured
source: @CIT_shellings
🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Ozerne, Lyman direction, Donetsk Oblast 17/01/2026

🇷🇺Russian advances: As of the 17th January 2026, Russian forces have expanded their zone of control within the Lyman direction, launching a series of infantry assaults against the localities of Dibrova and Ozerne gaining footholds within the villages and engaging in battles with the Ukrainian armed forces as they attempt to consolidate within their gained positions.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes: both neutral mapping projects “Suriyak map” and pro Ukrainian “Deepstate map” have acknowledged Russian offensive operations within the region, geolocated footage released by Russian and Ukrainian forces showcasing Russian assaults being engaged by drones within the region also confirm ongoing hostilities within the localities of Dibrova and Ozerne.

📚Open-Source Information: geolocated footage released by Russian and Ukrainian sources show a Russian infantry moving throughout the Yampil forest and entering the settlement of Dibrova where they entered local house and were subsequently attacked by Ukrainian First Person View Drones. Geolocated footage of these house confirms that the Russian army has entered the territories of Dibrova and Ozerne.

🎯Strategic Value: Russian forces are expanding their zone of control around the flanks of Lyman, Donetsk oblast. Russian forces gaining a foothold within the settlements of Dibrova and Ozerne bring Russian forces within closer range of the Siversky-Donets river and add more pressure to both the cities of Lyman and Slovyansk, Donetsk Oblast.
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓 January 12th - January 18th, 2026

🟥 Russian Attacks on Ukraine

🛩 Drone strikes
•1002 UAVs (Shahed-type, Gerbera and other types) launched from Kursk, Millerovo, Orel, Bryansk,Hvardiiske (ToT Crimea), Primorsko-Akhtarsk (RF)
•875 neutralised
source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes
•34 missiles strikes launched from, Kursk, Bryansk, Crimea (UA) and The Black Sea
• 8 neutralised
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU and Ukrainian Air Force @kpszu

💥 Airstrikes
• 1150 KAB/UMPK strikes
source: General Staff of the ZSU, @GeneralStaffZSU

🧍‍♂️casualties
• 22 killed
• 151 injured
source: @CIT_shellings
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian incursions into Ukraine in the last month

Locations of Russian crossings over the international recognised border of the Russian Federation and Ukraine since the beginning of the year mapped.

These actions are aimed at drawing limited Ukrainian manpower and equipment away from more important sectors of the frontline, further stretching Ukraine's ability to put up resistance, and therefore accelerating the rate of attrition. The incursions are focused within the Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts situated in Northern Ukraine.
🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Hulyaipole/Pokrovs’ke, Dnipropetovsk/Zaporizhzhia Oblast 17/02/2026:

🇷🇺 Russian advances: In response to the Russian attempts at forming a large right flank to the stronghold city of Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces began launching a series of clearing operations against lightly manned and consolidated Russian positions southeast of Pokrovs’ke, which allowed for them to initiate a localised sector-wide counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces were able to advance approximately 12 km behind Russian lines from the north, and around 13 km behind Russian lines from the east, clearing/recapturing the settlements of Staroukrainka, Pryluky, Kosivtseve, Prydorozhnje, Ternuvate, Dobropillya, Nove Zaporizhzhya, Vidradne, Hai, Vovche, Novooleksandrivka, Oleksiivka, Stepove, and Sosnivka, and begin fighting for the settlements of Kalynivske, Vebove, Ternove, Vyshneve, Ostapivske, and Pishchane. This has threatened Russian formations with encirclement in both the Pryluky area and the Danylivka area, forcing them to withdraw from the former and begin withdrawing from the latter.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes: Suriyak Map has acknowledged the Ukrainian advances, along with various other independent mappers. Their reports line up with geolocated footage, available reports from Russian and Ukrainian military sources, and public satellite imagery collected from Sentinel. In particular, there is consensus that Ukrainian forces have managed to retake large swaths of land in the fields north of the tributary of the Yanchur River, and in the fields southeast of Ternuvate, west of the Haichur River.

📚Open-Source Information: Due to the implementation of an information embargo by the Ukrainian side on this counteroffensive, and significant restrictions on reporting for Russian channels, there is very little geolocated footage so far. However, some footage d0es exist, such as a video of Ukrainian positions being shelled in the fields between Dobropillya and Solodke, confirming some Ukrainian movement in this area. This can be cross-references with Sentinel satellite imagery, which shows significant Ukrainian artillery preparation on these fields sometime between February 6 and February 11. Additional footage also shows Russian FPV drone strikes on Ukrainian infantry and an M113 APC in the treelines north of Berezove and Ternove.

🎯Strategic value: The Hulyaipole-Pokrovs’ke area has long been a sector of the frontline that Russia has been focusing on. Russia has been deploying significant amounts of manpower and equipment there to secure the tactical heights at the towns of Ternuvate and Zalizhnychne, aiming to form a right flank to Orikhiv, which would have allowed them begin outflanking this crucial city. In carrying out this operation, Ukrainian forces have denied Russia access to some of these critical heights in the area of Ternuvate, thereby significantly delaying their plans for encircling Orikhiv and beginning a push on Zaporizhzhia City.
🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Khotin,Sumy Oblast 28/02/2026

🇷🇺Russian advances: as of the 26th February, Russian forces have continued offensive operations within the direction of Khotin and Pysarivka. Russian forces are focused on advancing along the C191504 highway from the direction of Oleksiivka to consolidate forces within the concealed forest area. A consolidation of Russian forces within the Forrest area would allow their forces to launch more effective assaults against the towns of Khotin and Pysarivka.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes: Neutral mapping project “Suriyak map” has acknowledged Russian offensive operations within the region, geolocated footage released by Russian and Ukrainian forces showcasing Russian assaults being engaged by drones within the open fields north of Khotin also highlighted Russian advances in the region.

📚Open-Source Information: geolocated footage released by Russian and Ukrainian sources show a Russian infantry moving throughout open terrain and entering the settlement of Mala Korchakivka where they continue to push the forested surrounding to consolidate their forces.

🎯Strategic Value: Russian forces are expanding their zone of control around the flanks of Sumy city, Sumy Oblast to enhance their buffer zone along the internationally recognised border of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Advancing deeper within the Sumy region will also lead to further pressure on the city of Sumy, which is a large population centre.
🗓️ February 23rd – March 1st, 2026

🇷🇺Russian Attacks on Ukraine:

🛩️Drone strikes

• 794 UAVs (Geran-2, Geran-3, Gebera and other types) launched from Millerovo Airbase, Khalino Airbase, Navlya Test Site, Tsumbulova Test Site, Shatalovo Airbase, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Hvardiiske Test Site, Donetsk International Airport.

• 685 neutralised

source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu


🚀Missile strikes

~ 47 missiles launched from, Kursk Oblast, Millerovo, Taganrog, Yeysk, Klintsy, Liski, Dzhankoi, Simferopol, Black Sea, Belgorod Oblast, Vologda Oblast.

~ 14 intercepted

Breakdown by missile type:

14 Iskander-M ballistic missiles

24 Kh-101 cruise missiles

2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles

2 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles

2 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles

2 Kh-31P anti-radar missiles


💥Airstrikes

• 951 KAB/UMPK strikes


🧍‍♂️Casualties

• 30 killed

• 118 injured

source: @CIT_shellings
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🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Dobropillya direction, Donetsk Oblast 06/03/2026:


🇷🇺 Russian advances:
Following the fall of the cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in late 2025, Russian forces began shifting their focus towards developing an offensive in the direction of Dobropillya – the largest remaining Ukrainian controlled city in this part of Donetsk Oblast. After around two months of back-and-forth fighting, Russian forces were able to achieve a tactical breakthrough in the village of Hryshyne, reaching all the way to its northwestern outskirts. While Russia is yet to fully capture Hryshyne, Ukrainian control there is now very minimal, despite their attempts at counterattacking. At the same time, Russian forces are trying to improve their tactical positions west of Rodynske and have managed to establish a foothold in the southern part of the city of Bilytske, amid assault operations in the surrounding areas. Fighting also continues in the direction of Kucheriv Yar and Zolotyi Kolodyaz, however Russia has struggled to make additional progress in this area, despite Ukrainian redeployments from here to other sectors of the frontline.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes:
Several sources have recorded territorial changes in favour of Russia in the Dobropillya direction recently. Neutral mapping project Suriyak Map reported that Russia was able to establish control over the central part of Hryshyne and begin fighting for the northwestern part of the village. Ukrainian channel Myroshnykov states that the situation in Hryshyne is “difficult” and that only 25% is controlled by Ukraine. Myroshnykov’s previous update on that sector just over a week earlier stated that 40% of the settlement was under Ukrainian control, confirming that Russian advances have indeed taken place recently. Meanwhile, Russian mapping project Divgen reports that Russia was able to advance from Udachne towards Serhiivka, however recent updates by Suriyak Map did not mention any Russian progress here.

📚Open-Source Information:
As usual, with Russian progress suddenly accelerating, Ukraine has implemented much stricter censorship around events taking place in the Dobropillya direction, including increased restrictions on publishing geolocatable videos. One recent clip which surfaced on March 3 shows a Russian position coming under fire from Ukrainian drones in a treeline east of Hryshyne. This confirms that Russian forces have at least managed to make some advances on the right flank of the main thrust in Hryshyne, although without additional evidence from Ukrainian sources, it remains unclear whether the Russian soldiers were able to consolidate in this area.

🎯Strategic value:
The Dobropillya direction is one of the most crucial parts of the frontline. It is situated in the western part of Donetsk Oblast and provides a barrier against Russian progress into other parts of eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, including in the direction of Pavlohrad, forcing Russia to develop other fronts such as in Novopavlivka much more than they otherwise would have to. Additionally, Dobropillya is a fairly large settlement, with a pre-war population of over 28,000. It is very suitable for defence and has become the main Ukrainian fortress and logistical hub for this direction. It also forms the main Ukrainian stronghold on the right flank to Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka. If Russia captures Dobropillya, it will significantly simplify offensive operations to the east and further northeast in the direction of Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk, endangering the last parts of Ukrainian-controlled Donbas.
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓️March 9th – March 15th, 2026
 
🇷🇺Russian Attacks on Ukraine
 
🛩️Drone strikes
• 334 UAVs (Geran-2, Geran-3, Gebera and other types) launched from.
• 283 neutralised
Source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu
 
 🚀Missile strikes:
~ 6 missiles launched from: Crimea, Black Sea.
~ 0 intercepted
Breakdown by missile type:
-   4 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles
-   2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles

💥Airstrikes:
• 515 KAB/UMPK strikes
 
🧍‍♂️Civilian casualties:
• 5 killed
• 38 injured
Source: @CIT_shellings
1👍1
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓️March 16th – March 22nd, 2026

🇷🇺Russian Attacks on Ukraine:

🛩️ Drone strikes
• 1,116 UAVs (Geran-2, Geran-3, Gebera and other types) launched from Tsumbulova, Shatalovo, Navlya, Kursk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Hvardiiske, Cape Chauda.
• 993 neutralised.
Source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes:
~ 8 missiles launched from: Kursk Oblast and Crimea
~ 0 intercepted

Breakdown by missile type:
- 4 Kh-31P anti-radar missile
- 3 Izdeliye-30 cruise missiles
- 1 Iskander-M ballistic missile

💥 Airstrikes:
• 1,764 KAB/UMPK strikes

🧍‍♂️ Civilian casualties:
• 77 killed
• 615 injured
Source: @CIT_shellings
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT
🗓️March 9th – March 15th, 2026

🇷🇺Russian Attacks on Ukraine

🛩️ Drone strikes
• 1,171 UAVs (Geran-2, Geran-3, Gebera and other types) launched from Tsumbulova, Navlya, Kursk, Shatalove, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Hvardiiske, Cape Chauda.
• 1,039 neutralised
Source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀 Missile strikes:
~ 80 missiles launched from: Crimea, Black Sea, Kursk, Donetsk, Volgograd, Caspian Sea, Bryansk, Taganrog, .
~ 20 intercepted
Breakdown by missile type:
- 26 Kalibr cruise missiles
- 24 Kh-101 cruise missiles
- 16 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
- 4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
- 4 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
- 4 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles
- 2 Kh-31P anti-radar missiles

💥 Airstrikes:
• 1,980 KAB/UMPK strikes

🧍‍♂️Civilian casualties:
• 73 killed
• 586 injured
Source: @CIT_shellings
WEEKLY STRIKE TRACK REPORT

🗓️March 23rd – March 29th, 2026

🇷🇺Russian Attacks on Ukraine:

🛩️Drone strikes

• 1,380 UAVs (Geran-2, Geran-3, Gebera and other types) launched from Tsumbulova, Shatalovo, Navlya, Kursk, Millerovo, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Hvardiiske, Cape Chauda.

• 1,252 neutralised.
Source: Ukrainian Air Force, @kpszsu

🚀Missile strikes:

~ 49 missiles launched from: Kursk Oblast, Bryansk Oblast, Vologda Oblast, Caspian Sea/Astrakhan Oblast, Black Sea, Donetsk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, Rostov Oblast, Ryazan Oblast and Crimea.
~ 16 missiles intercepted

Breakdown by missile type:
- 24 Kh-101 cruise missiles
- 8 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
- 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles
- 6 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
- 4 Kh-31P anti-radar missiles
- 2 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles

💥Airstrikes:
• 1,582 KAB/UMPK strikes

🧍‍♂️Civilian casualties:
• 60 killed
• 349 injured
Source: @CIT_shellings
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🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Kup’yans’k, Kharkiv Oblast, 03/04/2026

🇷🇺🇺🇦Russian and Ukrainian movements: Within the city of Kup’yans’k, both Russian and Ukrainian forces are appearing to be scattered in multiple districts of the city with no real formation of a frontline. Large grey zones have broken out within the city centre regions and also within the eastern industrial district where previous Ukrainian successes have been slowly chipped away over the last month due to Russian efforts to regain control within the sector.

📍Mapped Territorial Changes: Neutral mapping project Suriyakmap has updated grey zones within the city of Kup’yans’k based on geographical location from recent videos of the battlefield. The maps don’t show a stable frontline, but just areas where Russian and Ukrainian forces have been seen operating as of lately. Pro Ukrainian mapping project has not acknowledged the situation within Kup’yans’k since they updated the map to show Ukrainian success within the city in January, 2026.

📚Private Source Information:

An international volunteer who was recently part of the Khartia national guard and deployed to Kup’yans’k city during the middle of March stated the following:

“The city centre is very confusing, no one really has any control over it because positional battles are taking place rarely and there’s a lacking amount of personnel, so teams can easily move to different parts of the city if they’re not engaged by drones or artillery. I’m not surprised the situation is so confusing our command also didn’t have a vivid idea of what exactly was occurring in our selected area of operations, before we would go on missions we would ask where the frontline is located and half the time they would just shrug or feed us with some information, which was outdated by three weeks.”

🎯Strategic value:
The rapid expansion of grey zones within Kup’yans’k highlights a significant shift in control over the city. Ukraine had failed to consolidate their forces within the city following their successful counter offensive early in the year and now due to a reduction in manpower they are unable to maintain a defensive posture in all of the districts, resulting in areas of conflict being completely isolated or empty of defenders allowing Russians to break through gaps and move into rear areas with very little resistance. The lack of a frontline makes the situation very hard to monitor with battles taking place in random pockets of the city at any given time. Russian forces will now attempt to maintain their positions in the western and central districts to apply pressure on Ukrainian defenders through newly forming grey zones, but Russian control over Kup’yans’k is not near due to sparsity of logistics and resupply.
🧵 Frontline Sentinel – Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, 04/04/2026

🇷🇺🇺🇦Russian and Ukrainian advances:

Ukrainian forces continue their counteroffensive operation that began on February 5, aimed at eliminating the Russian right flank to Orikhiv and capturing the village of Uspenivka. Despite hitting much more fortified positions with higher concentrations of Russian infantry, the Ukrainians were able to continue advancing, breaking further south through Verbove and Vyshneve, and forcing a Russian withdrawal from the salient in the area of Danylivka and Yehorivka. However, since then, Russian forces have ramped up their own counterattacks aimed at regaining the initiative and carried out a series of mechanised assaults and small infantry attacks, which have seen them retake some positions around Zlahoda, Solodke, Novohryhorivka, and Novomykolaivka, and expand the grey-zone significantly. Additionally, despite issues with logistics along the Velyka Novosilka – Hulyaipole Road and the significant Ukrainian progress, the Russians have retained their ability to continue advancing west of Hulyaipole, and managed to make new advances near Zaliznychne, Huliaipilske, Myrne, Hirke, Staroukrainka, and Kosivtseve.

📍Mapped territorial changes:

Both Suriyak Maps and Deepstate have acknowledged Russian advances west of Hulyaipole, although Deepstate still claims that large parts of this sector remains in an infiltration zone. Suriyak shows much larger Russian progress around Ternuvate, in line with some Russian sources. Geolocations show Russian soldiers raising flags in the village of Boikove, however Pro-Ukrainian source Playfra states that this is a one-time flagging operation, with the Russian soldiers withdrawing right afterwards. Deepstate also shows increased infiltration zones in favour of Ukraine around Kalynivske and Berezove, while Suriyak Maps marked some larger Ukrainian advances here some time ago. The general consensus is that Ukrainian forces are making progress from the north where the Russians have begun counterattacking, while the Russians are making progress west of Hulyaipole.

📚Open source information:

With the end of the information embargo by the Ukrainian side on their counteroffensive, several more videos have appeared in recent days confirming additional Ukrainian movements. In particular, Ukrainian forces were spotted raiding Russian positions in Novohryhorivka and near Novoivanivka, however the former ended in failure following Russian counterattacks. Other videos show Russian infiltrations towards Ternuvate and Boikove, although based on the available information, no consolidation has occurred in most of these areas. Sentinel satellite imagery suggests a decrease in shelling of the entire front following the most active stage of the counteroffensive. This decrease in shelling can also be attributed to a change in tactics towards deeper infiltrations behind enemy lines by either side, rather than more static, stable, and positional lines.



🎯Strategic value: This sector of the frontline remains crucial to both sides. On the one hand, Russian forces need to capture the tactical heights around the towns of Zaliznychne and Ternuvate in order to begin their offensive aimed at outflanking Orikhiv from the north. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces need to hold positions here to prevent the Russian advance, and need to maintain control over areas north of Verbove and Vyshneve to prevent another Russian advance to Pokrovs’ke, which would facilitate further movements deeper into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and towards Novomykolaivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.