🇺🇸-🗣👆The interesting thing is that QT has finally started to work against inflation. There has been a more active reduction in deposits, as you can see, for the first time in the last 1.5 years.
The most liquid bank accounts are decreasing, which means (if we believe that the Fisher formula works), either prices should creep down, or output volume, that is, if the price grows slower than demand falls, then GDP falls. As you can see, prices are not in a hurry to decline.
Apparently, we are really moving towards a recession.
The most liquid bank accounts are decreasing, which means (if we believe that the Fisher formula works), either prices should creep down, or output volume, that is, if the price grows slower than demand falls, then GDP falls. As you can see, prices are not in a hurry to decline.
Apparently, we are really moving towards a recession.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Fed's Patrick Harker :
I'm the type who thinks we can skip the June rate hike. This will not be a pause - we are not ready for it yet.
(31.05.2023) source: forexlive.com
Fed's Philip Jefferson :
Monetary policy works with a time lag, so skipping the rate hike in June will allow us to see more data.
(31.05.2023) source: forexlive.com
I'm the type who thinks we can skip the June rate hike. This will not be a pause - we are not ready for it yet.
(31.05.2023) source: forexlive.com
Fed's Philip Jefferson :
Monetary policy works with a time lag, so skipping the rate hike in June will allow us to see more data.
(31.05.2023) source: forexlive.com
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Inflation has turned out to be more resilient than the FOMC expected when they released their latest forecast in March.
The rate should be high for longer than expected, which increases the likelihood of a hard landing and recession.
In other words, "sticky" inflation requires more destruction of demand, which increases the risk of lower corporate earnings.
The rate should be high for longer than expected, which increases the likelihood of a hard landing and recession.
In other words, "sticky" inflation requires more destruction of demand, which increases the risk of lower corporate earnings.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🔥Well, since Monday the vacuum liquidity cleaner turns on ?
As early as Monday, the US Treasury is going to throw $170 billion worth of bonds on the market.
It is extremely interesting how this will affect the markets and whether it will affect at all. And then rumors and speculation through the roof.🤓
As early as Monday, the US Treasury is going to throw $170 billion worth of bonds on the market.
It is extremely interesting how this will affect the markets and whether it will affect at all. And then rumors and speculation through the roof.
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⚡️☢️🇸🇦🛢🔊 OPEC + meeting is started.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters that the OPEC+ countries plan to discuss many topics and called the upcoming talks exciting.
“You have no idea what we are discussing” — Saudi Energy Minister tried to intrigue the market and journalists before the OPEC+ meeting.
Bindings of Gold to Barrel?🤓
Why do we need green and other paper? Gold to pay for Oil and Gas 🔥🛢
They are mouse clicking Trillions are not backed by anything and the whole world should work hard? Who here rob the whole world? Do you remember this Economist cover, by the way? 👆
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters that the OPEC+ countries plan to discuss many topics and called the upcoming talks exciting.
“You have no idea what we are discussing” — Saudi Energy Minister tried to intrigue the market and journalists before the OPEC+ meeting.
Bindings of Gold to Barrel?
Why do we need green and other paper? Gold to pay for Oil and Gas 🔥🛢
They are mouse clicking Trillions are not backed by anything and the whole world should work hard? Who here rob the whole world? Do you remember this Economist cover, by the way? 👆
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🔥🇨🇳⚔️🇺🇸 Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu, speaking in Singapore, attacked the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, saying that Washington is seeking to stoke confrontation by supporting Taiwan, deploying military forces and creating alliances in the region.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🇨🇳Chinese Warship Nearly Collides With US Destroyer In Taiwan Strait. ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge
Chinese Warship Nearly Collides With US Destroyer In Taiwan Strait
Beijing defends dangerous maneuver while condemning US attempt to "exercise hegemony of navigation."
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☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸🏦📈Large banks may face 20% increase in capital requirements - WSJ
▪️ U.S. regulators are preparing to force the big banks to strengthen their financial footing. This, they say, will help increase the resilience of the system after a string of mid-sized bank failures this year.
Is this the way how US Treasury decides to resolve the problem of demand for new US debt issues?🤓
▪️ U.S. regulators are preparing to force the big banks to strengthen their financial footing. This, they say, will help increase the resilience of the system after a string of mid-sized bank failures this year.
Is this the way how US Treasury decides to resolve the problem of demand for new US debt issues?
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⚡️❗️🇺🇸 According to the statement, the SEC has filed a lawsuit against Binance and CEO Zhao for violating US securities regulations.
Bloomberg.com
SEC Sues Binance and CEO Zhao for Breaking Securities Rules
The US Securities and Exchange Commission accused Binance Holdings Ltd. and its Chief Executive Officer Changpeng Zhao of mishandling customer funds, misleading investors and regulators, and breaking securities rules.
🏦🇪🇺 ECB President Christine Lagarde said inflationary pressures remain strong and borrowing costs will continue to rise to combat them, bolstering forecasts for another rate hike at next week's meeting.
Bloomberg.com
ECB’s Lagarde Says Price Pressures Strong, Rate to Rise More
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said inflation pressures remain powerful and borrowing costs will be raised further to tackle them — cementing expectations for another interest-rate hike at next week’s meeting.
⚡️🗣☢️🗣It seems the Ministry of Finance has placed today for 160+ billion dollars at rates of 5.2-5.5%. That is, Yellen gives a premium 0.25% to the Fed rate, as we've suggested. They also plan to place 9 issues before next Tuesday. And only need to pay 3.
Supposedly US Treasury will withdraw ~ 60-65 billion net this week. Really, they don't rush. If their plans of accumulation of $750 billion cash position at the end of the 2nd quarter are still intact - then, as we said, this will happen in just a couple of weeks.
it won't be long to wait....
Supposedly US Treasury will withdraw ~ 60-65 billion net this week. Really, they don't rush. If their plans of accumulation of $750 billion cash position at the end of the 2nd quarter are still intact - then, as we said, this will happen in just a couple of weeks.
it won't be long to wait....
🏦🇦🇺The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.1% per annum. This is the highest level since the beginning of 2012, notes MarketWatch .
Since May last year, the Australian Central Bank has increased the rate twelve times, in total it was raised by 400 bp.
Since May last year, the Australian Central Bank has increased the rate twelve times, in total it was raised by 400 bp.
🇩🇪German factory orders fell unexpectedly in April (by 0.4%), further hurting the outlook for Europe's largest economy after it suffered its first post-pandemic recession over the winter .
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Excessive savings of households are exhausting - approx. 1.2 trillion. dollars left.
It is precisely because of the spending of these excess savings that consumer spending on services such as airline tickets, hotels, restaurants, etc., remains high.
Someone was sitting at home during pandemic, working, saving money (or rather, he could not spend it), and now he is breaking away, and someone was unemployed, wasting savings and stimulus checks.
Expenditure of excess savings gives somewhere between 700-800 billion dollars of final demand per year. Last check shows that the US GDP was $25 trillion. dollars.
That is, these excess spending, it seems, forms about 3% of GDP. If excess savings run out by the end of the year and 3% of final demand goes away, then this in itself, without any financial crises, will lead to a recession.
It is precisely because of the spending of these excess savings that consumer spending on services such as airline tickets, hotels, restaurants, etc., remains high.
Someone was sitting at home during pandemic, working, saving money (or rather, he could not spend it), and now he is breaking away, and someone was unemployed, wasting savings and stimulus checks.
Expenditure of excess savings gives somewhere between 700-800 billion dollars of final demand per year. Last check shows that the US GDP was $25 trillion. dollars.
That is, these excess spending, it seems, forms about 3% of GDP. If excess savings run out by the end of the year and 3% of final demand goes away, then this in itself, without any financial crises, will lead to a recession.
Historical Patterns: The VIX Is Ready for a Sharp Reversal
The VIX volatility index has fallen to its lowest level in more than three years.
The VIX fell about 19% last week, the biggest drop this year.
✅Thus, after the VIX fell more than 34% below its 200-DMA . Such a significant divergence usually means a bottom.
The story goes: after dropping below or above the 200-day moving average by more than 30%, then over the course of 20 trading days, the VIX averaged a 17% jump. More importantly, the index was higher after 20 days in 42 out of 44 cases, if the deviation from the 200-day was at least 30 percentage points.
❗️In addition, seasonality also favors the growth of the VIX: the volatility index has increased 80% of the time in June over the past 10 years.
The VIX volatility index has fallen to its lowest level in more than three years.
The VIX fell about 19% last week, the biggest drop this year.
✅Thus, after the VIX fell more than 34% below its 200-DMA . Such a significant divergence usually means a bottom.
The story goes: after dropping below or above the 200-day moving average by more than 30%, then over the course of 20 trading days, the VIX averaged a 17% jump. More importantly, the index was higher after 20 days in 42 out of 44 cases, if the deviation from the 200-day was at least 30 percentage points.
❗️In addition, seasonality also favors the growth of the VIX: the volatility index has increased 80% of the time in June over the past 10 years.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Market nightmares on the Internet
✔️One of the traders notes that unlike the S&P 500 index, led by the largest technology stocks, its weighted counterpart Equal Weight Index S&P - the equilibrium index, draws the so-called death cross - the intersection of averages, which in the past almost always provoked a powerful market decline.
✔️One of the traders notes that unlike the S&P 500 index, led by the largest technology stocks, its weighted counterpart Equal Weight Index S&P - the equilibrium index, draws the so-called death cross - the intersection of averages, which in the past almost always provoked a powerful market decline.
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 After yesterday's BTC collapse here comes the meme 🤣
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Today the SEC attacked another stock exchange - COINBASE . Now they are suing her.
✔️The day before, Binance became a victim.
The US authorities are doing everything to somehow protect the dollar and maintain control over the global financial system.
✔️The day before, Binance became a victim.
The US authorities are doing everything to somehow protect the dollar and maintain control over the global financial system.
🇨🇳 China's exports fell by 7.5% in May, imports fell by 4.5%
✔️The volume of China's exports in May decreased by 7.5% in annual terms and amounted to $283.5 billion, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement.
✔️This is the first decrease in the indicator in the last three months. Analysts, on average, had forecast a decline of just 0.4%, according to Trading Economics data.
✔️Imports decreased by 4.5% to $217.69 billion. At the same time, the indicator fell by
results for the third month in a row.
✅Experts expected a sharper drop in imports - by 8%.
✔️The volume of China's exports in May decreased by 7.5% in annual terms and amounted to $283.5 billion, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement.
✔️This is the first decrease in the indicator in the last three months. Analysts, on average, had forecast a decline of just 0.4%, according to Trading Economics data.
✔️Imports decreased by 4.5% to $217.69 billion. At the same time, the indicator fell by
results for the third month in a row.
✅Experts expected a sharper drop in imports - by 8%.
⚡️☢️🇺🇸-🔊Fed Easing Cycle To Start Multi-Year Dollar Bearish Trend END THIS YEAR - ING
Weaker dollar could lead to lower U.S. rate exports around the world
◾️Our basic view in the currency markets is that the dollar will enter a cyclical bear trend in the coming months.
◾️The prerequisite for this is tightening of credit conditions in the US, which will complement the tightening of monetary policy and lead to the long-awaited disinflation in the US.
◾️If the Fed is able to sharply cut rates later this year, we are convinced that the dollar will trade lower. In this scenario, in our opinion, the EUR/USD pair should be somewhere around 1.15+ by the end of the year, and the USD/JPY pair should be below 130.
◾️The weakening of the US dollar should be a positive factor for global growth. Many countries, especially those with emerging markets, are forced to support local currencies with higher rates.
A reversal in the dollar's broad trend should give them some breathing room and possibly attract more portfolio positives to emerging markets than have been seen since the end of 2020.
Weaker dollar could lead to lower U.S. rate exports around the world
◾️Our basic view in the currency markets is that the dollar will enter a cyclical bear trend in the coming months.
◾️The prerequisite for this is tightening of credit conditions in the US, which will complement the tightening of monetary policy and lead to the long-awaited disinflation in the US.
◾️If the Fed is able to sharply cut rates later this year, we are convinced that the dollar will trade lower. In this scenario, in our opinion, the EUR/USD pair should be somewhere around 1.15+ by the end of the year, and the USD/JPY pair should be below 130.
◾️The weakening of the US dollar should be a positive factor for global growth. Many countries, especially those with emerging markets, are forced to support local currencies with higher rates.
A reversal in the dollar's broad trend should give them some breathing room and possibly attract more portfolio positives to emerging markets than have been seen since the end of 2020.