⚡️🇬🇧☢️🗣🇬🇧 🏦 Inflation in the UK remained at a stubborn double digit in March, another unexpectedly strong figure that will strengthen the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.
The consumer price index rose 10.1% from last year, due to the strongest rise in food prices in more than 40 years. Economists had expected growth to slow to 9.8%
The consumer price index rose 10.1% from last year, due to the strongest rise in food prices in more than 40 years. Economists had expected growth to slow to 9.8%
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 Debt ceil: things start moving from the dead point:
Goldman Sachs: "U.S. may hit June debt ceiling deadline earlier than expected due to weak tax collection."
"As a possible debt crisis approaches, Wall Street shrugs."
"Don't panic just yet: Experts from the bipartisan political center, which also specializes in predicting the X-date of the debt ceiling, warned on Tuesday that it was too early to make any deadline predictions based on preliminary April tax collection data."
Goldman Sachs: "U.S. may hit June debt ceiling deadline earlier than expected due to weak tax collection."
"As a possible debt crisis approaches, Wall Street shrugs."
"Don't panic just yet: Experts from the bipartisan political center, which also specializes in predicting the X-date of the debt ceiling, warned on Tuesday that it was too early to make any deadline predictions based on preliminary April tax collection data."
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸 Today - Stablecoin Regulation Hearing in US Congress
▪️ Circle CEO will be among the speakers, speaking on stablecoin payments. (document)
▪️ Circle CEO will be among the speakers, speaking on stablecoin payments. (document)
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸🦠💉 Congratulations! The FDA has withdrawn approval for the use of Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines in the US.
At the same time, it turned out that Anthony Fauci was lying under oath and the version of the artificial origin of Covid-19 (the laboratory of the Institute of Virology in Wuhan commissioned by NIH Fauci with the money of the US Department of Defense) became the main, if not the only one.
Well? Showdown with Dr. Anthony Fauci goes to a new level🔥
At the same time, it turned out that Anthony Fauci was lying under oath and the version of the artificial origin of Covid-19 (the laboratory of the Institute of Virology in Wuhan commissioned by NIH Fauci with the money of the US Department of Defense) became the main, if not the only one.
Well? Showdown with Dr. Anthony Fauci goes to a new level🔥
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣The market remains volatile this week as participants look for the next fundamental driver .
◾️The US dollar index continues to move sideways after an inconclusive bounce on Wednesday, while risk sentiment remains neutral on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) will release the minutes of its latest meeting, and Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech.
◾️The US is to release data on existing home sales, weekly jobless claims and a study of manufacturing activity by the Philadelphia Fed.
◾️Fed Reps Waller, Meister, Bowman and Logan are also scheduled to speak at the end of the day.
◾️Cautious market sentiment and rising US Treasury yields helped the US dollar (USD) hold its ground against its peers on Wednesday. Early Thursday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell below 3.6%.
The Fed's Beige Book showed at the end of Wednesday that the general price level rose moderately, while the pace of price growth slowed down over the survey period ending April 10.
◾️The US dollar index continues to move sideways after an inconclusive bounce on Wednesday, while risk sentiment remains neutral on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) will release the minutes of its latest meeting, and Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech.
◾️The US is to release data on existing home sales, weekly jobless claims and a study of manufacturing activity by the Philadelphia Fed.
◾️Fed Reps Waller, Meister, Bowman and Logan are also scheduled to speak at the end of the day.
◾️Cautious market sentiment and rising US Treasury yields helped the US dollar (USD) hold its ground against its peers on Wednesday. Early Thursday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell below 3.6%.
The Fed's Beige Book showed at the end of Wednesday that the general price level rose moderately, while the pace of price growth slowed down over the survey period ending April 10.
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Here is a link to Jen's policy brief: "The US Dollar's dominance as a reserve currency is rapidly eroding."
In terms of content, there is nothing new there, we are attaching a couple of graphs from the material that speak for themselves.
In terms of content, there is nothing new there, we are attaching a couple of graphs from the material that speak for themselves.
⚡️🇺🇸💲😱 Goldman Sachs: US default already in June
🗓A full blown debt ceiling crisis that could push the US economy into recession if the government does not take any action will happen as early as June, not August . The downside outlook was affected by lower tax revenues, as well as financial market turmoil, fueled by the ongoing fight to raise foreign borrowing limits in Congress.
🛡As a result, the cost of insuring US sovereign debt rose to its highest level since 2011 at 50 basis points. Investors are increasingly trying to protect their investments, which they are afraid of losing in the event of a default.
🗓A full blown debt ceiling crisis that could push the US economy into recession if the government does not take any action will happen as early as June, not August . The downside outlook was affected by lower tax revenues, as well as financial market turmoil, fueled by the ongoing fight to raise foreign borrowing limits in Congress.
🛡As a result, the cost of insuring US sovereign debt rose to its highest level since 2011 at 50 basis points. Investors are increasingly trying to protect their investments, which they are afraid of losing in the event of a default.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 The brief look on current situation:
▪️US Treasury cash assets on Fed account rose to $265.1 billion. The tax season is in full swing, but the tax collection is not impressive compared to last year's period.
▪️They say they want to raise the ceiling for 1.5 trillion there, cutting spending 3 times... but due what account? Pentagon?
▪️The structure of short-term interest rates has finally broken down: the 1-month Treasury bill is trading 170+ basis points below the federal funds rate. The spread has not been so negative since 2008.
▪️ Fed lending to banks increased last week: the crisis is not over. Loans through the discount window rose 3.4% to $69.9bn. BTFP loans rose 3% to $74bn. QT is sluggish at $17bn. Foreign securities swaps are down $10bn to $20bn.
▪️ US debt credit default swaps jump to highest level since 2011
▪️Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that there is "growing recognition of the fragmentation" of the world and that the US "may not be the best fragment to identify with." Larry is right.
___________________________
Bank reserves in the US system fell by $183 billion in a week to $3.164 trillion due to an increase in TGA (tax payment), while reverse repo reserves (RRP) remain stable at $2.3 billion:
Liquidity injections since the SVB crisis appear to have reached their peak, with the Fed's balance sheet shrinking by $141 billion in 4 weeks. As bank reserves continue to dwindle in the coming weeks, net liquidity in financial markets will quickly evaporate. Be careful.
▪️US Treasury cash assets on Fed account rose to $265.1 billion. The tax season is in full swing, but the tax collection is not impressive compared to last year's period.
▪️They say they want to raise the ceiling for 1.5 trillion there, cutting spending 3 times... but due what account? Pentagon?
▪️The structure of short-term interest rates has finally broken down: the 1-month Treasury bill is trading 170+ basis points below the federal funds rate. The spread has not been so negative since 2008.
▪️ Fed lending to banks increased last week: the crisis is not over. Loans through the discount window rose 3.4% to $69.9bn. BTFP loans rose 3% to $74bn. QT is sluggish at $17bn. Foreign securities swaps are down $10bn to $20bn.
▪️ US debt credit default swaps jump to highest level since 2011
▪️Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that there is "growing recognition of the fragmentation" of the world and that the US "may not be the best fragment to identify with." Larry is right.
___________________________
Bank reserves in the US system fell by $183 billion in a week to $3.164 trillion due to an increase in TGA (tax payment), while reverse repo reserves (RRP) remain stable at $2.3 billion:
Liquidity injections since the SVB crisis appear to have reached their peak, with the Fed's balance sheet shrinking by $141 billion in 4 weeks. As bank reserves continue to dwindle in the coming weeks, net liquidity in financial markets will quickly evaporate. Be careful.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 A recently declassified US government document confirmed what the alternative media has been reporting for years: that the 9/11 attacks were an internal act carried out by US government entities (but there is one important caveat, more on that in a moment).
Former CIA director John Brennan disappeared from view after the release of a sensational Guantanamo military commission court document that says his department recruited two hijackers ahead of 9/11 before they flew planes into the World Trade Center buildings.
🔥 The most important thing is not the information per se, because it is well known fact that was widely introduced and discussed in the net for a long time. The most important thing is the timing of publication and it is official confirmation, when global politics is actively re-shaping.
Former CIA director John Brennan disappeared from view after the release of a sensational Guantanamo military commission court document that says his department recruited two hijackers ahead of 9/11 before they flew planes into the World Trade Center buildings.
🔥 The most important thing is not the information per se, because it is well known fact that was widely introduced and discussed in the net for a long time. The most important thing is the timing of publication and it is official confirmation, when global politics is actively re-shaping.
⚡️🇪🇺☢️🗣EUR Bulls are hoping for some hawkish commentary from the European Central Bank's policymakers and for plenty of data that suggests the central bank could keep rates higher for longer than the Federal Reserve.
The premium of U.S. market rates over their European counterparts reached their narrowest in many months in early April, on the view that U.S. rate cuts are coming later this year while borrowing costs in Europe have further to climb.
Those expectations have pushed the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc to multi-month highs, although this rally could lose steam as markets reassess whether Fed cuts are really coming.
Anything that dents the dollar's yield appeal should help keep European currencies looking perky, at least for now. Reuters
The premium of U.S. market rates over their European counterparts reached their narrowest in many months in early April, on the view that U.S. rate cuts are coming later this year while borrowing costs in Europe have further to climb.
Those expectations have pushed the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc to multi-month highs, although this rally could lose steam as markets reassess whether Fed cuts are really coming.
Anything that dents the dollar's yield appeal should help keep European currencies looking perky, at least for now. Reuters
⚡️🇪🇺☢️🗣Goldman Sachs on Tuesday raised its terminal rate forecast for the European Central Bank (ECB) to 3.75%
from 3.5%, citing easing worries about the banking system, signs of underlying inflation remaining strong and generally hawkish commentary from policymakers.
Goldman economists expect the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) in May, June and July, but said the choice between a 25 bps and a 50 bps increase in May will be a close call due to lower banking risks, growth resilience and strength in underlying inflation. Reuters
from 3.5%, citing easing worries about the banking system, signs of underlying inflation remaining strong and generally hawkish commentary from policymakers.
Goldman economists expect the ECB to raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) in May, June and July, but said the choice between a 25 bps and a 50 bps increase in May will be a close call due to lower banking risks, growth resilience and strength in underlying inflation. Reuters
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 Cool idea - visualization of the S&P 500 in 2023 📊
✅And additionally visualization by day
✅And additionally visualization by day
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸Steve Bannon: China is dropping a bomb - questioning Ukraine's "sovereignty"...
Steve Bannon: The collapse of the EU, when Xi enters the game with his own hands...
Steve Bannon: The collapse of the EU, when Xi enters the game with his own hands...
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣💵💣Bloomberg - Four reasons for the dollar to fall further
🕊Nearly 90% of the >330 economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the Fed's key rate will drop to 3% or lower in the foreseeable future. 40% believe that the regulator will start easing monetary policy already this year . There have already been historical examples of divergence not in favor of the dollar. From August 2007 to April 2008 (!) the Fed lowered the rate by 325 basis points. And the ECB raised it by 25 bp. in July 2008.
🇯🇵The second reason is the possible strengthening of the yen. Experts do not exclude that the new head of the Bank of Japan, Katsuo Ueda, deliberately projects the image of the most boring functionary. Something may be hiding behind this facade, and by “something” we mean unexpected decisions in monetary policy that play into the hands of the yen.
🇨🇳The third is, of course, the yuan. Citigroup has a separate indicator, the Economic Surprise Index for China, and it is now at its highest level since 2006. At the same time, the yuan has grown by only 1% since the beginning of 2023 against a wide basket of currencies. There is a clear discrepancy, and in the foreseeable future it can be eliminated.
🌍And the fourth is de-dollarization as such, without being tied to new favorites . A third of economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that within 6-10 years the dollar's share of world reserves will be reduced to less than half. Moreover, another 20% are sure that 2-5 years will be enough for this. However, there are also about 18% of economists who are confident in the role of the dollar as a hegemon for another quarter of a century - or even an eternity.
🕊Nearly 90% of the >330 economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the Fed's key rate will drop to 3% or lower in the foreseeable future. 40% believe that the regulator will start easing monetary policy already this year . There have already been historical examples of divergence not in favor of the dollar. From August 2007 to April 2008 (!) the Fed lowered the rate by 325 basis points. And the ECB raised it by 25 bp. in July 2008.
🇯🇵The second reason is the possible strengthening of the yen. Experts do not exclude that the new head of the Bank of Japan, Katsuo Ueda, deliberately projects the image of the most boring functionary. Something may be hiding behind this facade, and by “something” we mean unexpected decisions in monetary policy that play into the hands of the yen.
🇨🇳The third is, of course, the yuan. Citigroup has a separate indicator, the Economic Surprise Index for China, and it is now at its highest level since 2006. At the same time, the yuan has grown by only 1% since the beginning of 2023 against a wide basket of currencies. There is a clear discrepancy, and in the foreseeable future it can be eliminated.
🌍And the fourth is de-dollarization as such, without being tied to new favorites . A third of economists surveyed by Bloomberg believe that within 6-10 years the dollar's share of world reserves will be reduced to less than half. Moreover, another 20% are sure that 2-5 years will be enough for this. However, there are also about 18% of economists who are confident in the role of the dollar as a hegemon for another quarter of a century - or even an eternity.