ForexPeaceArmy
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ForexPeaceArmy.com

Analysis of hot economical, political global events, rumors and humor
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๐Ÿ‘Œ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™€๏ธ๐Ÿคฉ
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โ˜๏ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ - ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บUS Ambassador to Russia Lynn Tracy complained about Putin:

๐Ÿ’ฌ You know, I visited different countries, talked with different leaders of states, but only next to Putin did I feel uncomfortable. It felt like I wasn't in charge here, but he was. Never experienced this before. Very unpleasant.

Clash with Reality, Dissonance ๐Ÿคฃ๐Ÿ”ฅ
โ˜๏ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ - ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸฆThe Congressional Oversight Committee (under Republicans rule) sent subpoenas to banks such as HSBC US, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Cathay Bank demanding all financial records relating to the Biden family.

As we've warned - It seems that Trump's arrest has opened a Pandora's box, and now both parties are ready to destroy everything in their struggle before the elections, including the banking system. However, no one is sorry.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ The end of the housing boom in G10

House prices also became stretched relative to fundamentals โ€” all G10 economies have seen increases in house price-to-rent ratios since the start of 2015. This largely reflects the impact of low-for-long interest rates and quantitative easing. The big question for 2023 is the extent to which rising mortgage rates will now cause a correction in house prices.
Media is too big
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃRebecca Patterson, former chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associates, says says the surge in gold prices will continue due to global central bank purchases and demand from investors.

"We're close to an all-time high in gold. I would expect this year It's going to hit a new all-time high. Rate cut this year seems unlikely (!) "
she says on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ Looks intriguing...๐Ÿ‘†
๐Ÿ“Œ Highlights of the week (April 10-16, 2023):

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Wednesday, 12/04)

๐Ÿ’ธ Consumer price indices in the US and major European countries for March:
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA (Wednesday, 12/04,)
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany (Thursday, 04/13)
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France (Friday, 04/14)
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain (Friday, 14/04)

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Retail Sales (Friday, 04/14) and Industrial Production (Friday, 04/14) for March

๐ŸŒŽ IMF Semi-Annual World Economic Outlook (WEO) and Financial Stability (GSF) Reports (Tuesday, 11/04)

๐Ÿ‘ฅ Meeting of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Washington (Wednesday, 12/04)

โœ๏ธ Interest rate solutions
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท Bank of South Korea (Tuesday, 04/11)
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bank of Canada (Wednesday, 12/04)

๐Ÿงฎ US quarterly reporting season begins :
๐Ÿฆ Wells Fargo & Co (Friday, 14/04)
๐Ÿฆ JPMorgan Chase & Co (Friday, 14/04)
๐Ÿฆ Citigroup Inc (Friday, 14/04)
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃMeanwhile, demand for loans and credit conditions in the US continue to worsen, the Dallas Fed said in a survey.

โŒThe volume of bank lending in the United States over the past 2 weeks has decreased by $ 105 billion - this is the largest decline since 1973 - writes Bloomberg

โŒThis dynamic could lead to a credit crunch on a full scale
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ$1.5 trillion debt wall looms over US commercial real estate

Nearly $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate debt is due by the end of 2025 . The big question facing these borrowers is, who is going to lend to them for refinancing?

โ—๏ธAccording to investment banks, office and retail property valuations could fall by 40% from peak to trough , increasing the risk of default.

โ—๏ธAdding to the headache , small and regional banks - the industry's largest source of credit last year - were hit by an outflow of deposits following the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, raising concerns about their ability to provide financing to borrowers
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ”Š๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท French President Macron made a statement over the weekend that could have been a sensation if Macron had real political power and will

โ—๏ธ And he said that Europe should reduce its dependence on the United States in the field of weapons, energy and, most importantly, the dollar , writes Politico

The question is only - who will let him to do this?๐Ÿค”
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃMeanwhile, the mood in the US market is going down the floor.

๐Ÿ™ŠAccording to Bloomberg statistics, literally everyone who can short is short.

โœ…Judge for yourself, the volume of short positions in E-mini S&P500 futures has reached a record for 12 years.

โ–ช๏ธAs you know, the market does not go where the crowd goes, it goes against it..

โ–ช๏ธSo Armageddon people better calm down?๐Ÿค”
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃAgainst the background of the forthcoming statistics on inflation in the US, the largest players began to shake the situation, giving forecasts.

โ–ช๏ธWhile the consensus calls for a slowdown as outlined above , JPMorgan said it expects a strong ๐Ÿ”ฅ0.5% m/m rise in the core consumer price index tomorrow, which would mean a fourth consecutive month of accelerating growth.. this will likely force the Fed raise the rate by 25 bp in May , and will force the increase again in June.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ In contradiction to ๐Ÿ‘†JP Morgan forecast, The fall in the money supply alarmed economists who predicted inflation before anyone else

โœ”๏ธBritish economists actively researching the dynamics of the money supply, who correctly predicted sky-high inflation before anyone else, are sounding the alarm again.

โœ”๏ธFor monetarists, growth and inflation are a function of the amount of money in circulation and its velocityโ€”the number of times it changes hands. And now this indicator is pointing to a decline.

โœ”๏ธMoney growth rates are falling in the UK, the Eurozone and the US, and experts consider this a warning of recession and deflation. Central banks have raised interest rates too much.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃThe whole week is extremely boring for the markets, but today will finally be an occasion for "fun".

โ–ช๏ธUS inflation data to be released. Goldman Sachs predicts fluctuations could reach +2% to -2% ๐Ÿ”ฅ Be careful...
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃBank of America clients withdraw $2.3 billion from US stocks

This was noticeable across all client groups. The sales were noticeable among institutional, retail and hedge fund clients.

The outflow comes as uncertainty builds over the sustainability of the S&P 500 rally this year.

โœ”๏ธTuesday was the sixth day in a row that the S&P 500 moved less than 0.6% in any direction - the longest stretch. stalemate since 2021.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃAnd more about the credit crisis: the fall in the availability of loans for small businesses in the United States was the largest in more than 20 years๐Ÿ”ฅ

โ–ช๏ธIn
the last two weeks of April, a record $105 billion in commercial bank loans and leases were sold, repaid or otherwise transferred from bank balance sheets.

โ–ช๏ธAnd in addition, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was released the day before, it fell, and for the 15th month in a row it lags behind the average for 49 years.

โ–ช๏ธBut what's even more remarkable, according to the NFIB, 9% of business owners who frequently borrowed said it was harder to get funding than three months earlier, the highest percentage since December 2012.

Worse, the 4-point monthly drop in this series was the biggest drop in credit availability in more than 20 years.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ๐Ÿ’ฌ Neel Kashkari: "A rate hike could trigger a recession, but maintaining high inflation would be worse." (11.04.2023) source: reuters.com

๐Ÿ’ฌJohn Williams: "Another rate hike is advisable." (11.04.2023) source: reuters.com
โ˜๏ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ - ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธMaybe a bullsh**t, but still -

According to economist Harry Dent, founder of the investment company HS Dent and author of several bestsellers, the biggest financial crash in history will occur by mid-June. In particular, he predicts a collapse of the S&P 500 by 86%, Nasdaq by 92% and Bitcoin by 95%.

According to our fundamental analysis - reasons are exist...
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃThe U.S. Treasury General Account ( TGA ) balance , from which the government pays expenses, reached $110 billion on April 7 (lag data ).

The cash cushion is being eaten up very quickly: on March 29, there were $162 billion on the balance sheet, and banks were flooded with liquidity .

Fed contributions to the US Treasury minus $46.2 billion:

The key problem remains the same: โ€œ there may not be enough cache even until June! ยป
๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ˜

We have to look at tax revenues, that's where the intrigue is: if they turn out to be below expectations, screams and tantrums about the "debt ceiling" will be on the front pages of the mainstream media. And think - to whom to issue a cache, and to whom not. Massive bank bailouts? Oh well.
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โ˜๏ธโ˜ข๏ธ๐Ÿ—ฃ - They print USDT out of thin air and pump it into buying Bitcoin. ๐Ÿ˜ And then they pour it into a dollar about a hamster. They don't even try to hide it anymore!!! It's easy to buy bitcoins for USDT and raise the price when it costs you nothing.๐Ÿ˜
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