⚡️🇫🇷🇺🇸🏦 According to Moody's Investors Service, France's sovereign rating is at risk if political differences lead to a significant deterioration in fiscal and debt indicators.

The country's rating outlook may be downgraded to negative from stable.

⚡️🇪🇺⚔️🇺🇸🔈 Europe has become useless and uninteresting for investors. If before 2009 the European Euro Stoxx 50 moved in tandem with the S&P 500, then over the next 15 years an impressive gap has formed

18:19: FED'S POWELL: YOU DON'T WANT TO WAIT UNTIL INFLATION GETS ALL THE WAY TO 2% TO EASE POLICY., 10.07.24, FIN TWITT

⚡️🇺🇸🔮🔈 another indicator in the United States signals the approach of recession. The charts show the "Sahm rule", named after the economist Claudia Sam, who proposed this indicator.

The essence of the indicator is as follows:
According to the rule, when the moving average of the unemployment rate for three months rises by at least half a percent compared to the minimum for the previous 12 months, this means the beginning of a recession.

In the past recessions of 2001 and 2007, when the indicator was approaching 0.5%, a recession was declared after a couple of quarters. Now everything is moving towards the same thing, so a recession is on the way.

GS - CPI Preview

⚡️🇺🇸🔮🔈 Barclays (about CPI):

We expect data to show inflation strengthening in June, but the data should be good enough to support a September rate cut.

Our forecast for core CPI for the fourth quarter. remains unchanged at 2.8%, which coincides with the FOMC median forecast in the June SEP.

Barclays Research, 07/05/11

⚡️🇩🇪🔮🔈🇩🇪German industry will not be able to completely get rid of the consequences of the recession of recent years, Bloomberg Economics believes

❗️🇺🇸🏦US Consumer Inflation CPI in June :

▪️y/y = +3% (forecast +3.1% / previously +3.3%).
▪️m/m = -0.1% (forecast +0.1% / previously 0%).

▪️base CPI = +3.3% y/y (forecast +3.4% / previously +3.4%)

⚡️🇺🇸🔮🔈 Goldman Sachs (about CPI): One word: pivotal.

One word: reversal. Today's report played a key role in giving the Fed the much-needed confidence that inflation is moving in the right direction. We are now getting data that suggests the economy is cooling and portends a Fed rate cut in September.

bloomberg.com