ForexPeaceArmy
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ForexPeaceArmy.com

Analysis of hot economical, political global events, rumors and humor
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ›ข๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ“ˆ ๐Ÿ“ˆBank of America predicts an increase in oil prices this year by 23% compared to current quotes to $112 per barrel
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโš”๏ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ”ˆ Fitch revised China's debt outlook to negative from stable.

Total debt has risen from 133% in 2008 to 272%(!) in 2022. It will rise again in 2023.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ”ˆ โš ๏ธ US CPI Core (YoY) :

โ–ซ๏ธ +3.8% (expected +3.7% )
โ–ซ๏ธ prev. value: +3.8%

โš ๏ธ US CPI (YoY) :
โ–ซ๏ธ +3.5% (expected +3.4% )
โ–ซ๏ธ prev. value: +3.2%
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ”ˆ Primary reaction of SP500 futures to the released statistics ๐Ÿ”ฅ

All CPI indicators are above expectations, the highest annual inflation rate since September 2023. Take a look at yields numbers...

Is America being hit by an inflationary 2nd wave already ?
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ›ข๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ“ˆ Interesting picture ๐Ÿค“What JP Morgan and others were telling about Crude Oil prices?
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ›ข๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ“‰ Global oil reserves are forecast to fall by 900k barrels per day
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ”ˆ Immediately after the data, a sell-off in bonds began around the world
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ”” The market is now saying we'll only get two rate cuts this year, and the first won't happen until September
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค“๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ”ˆ Minutes of the Fed meeting March 19-20 , 2024 (FOMC Minutes).
(publ. 04/10/24)

โ— Inflation continued to decline, but recent progress has been unsustainable. The latest inflation data did not increase officials' confidence that inflation is steadily moving towards 2%.

โ— Some participants noted that the recent rise in inflation was relatively broad-based and should therefore not be dismissed as a mere statistical outlier.

federalreserve.gov
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿฅ‡๐Ÿ“ˆ Costco gold bars seeing at least $100 million in monthly sales ๐Ÿ”ฅ "It only reinforces its value position," Wells Fargo said.๐Ÿ˜Ž
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ”ˆ Brief results of yesterday's Inflation report and Fed Minutes:

โ–ช๏ธHigher inflation means the stock market rally will face a critical test as earnings season begins. marketwatch.com

โ–ช๏ธBond sell-off extends to Asia following US inflation data
Shares of Australia, Japan and Hong Kong are declining following the American ones. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 4.5% for the first time since November. bloomberg.com

โ–ช๏ธThe Fed's interest rate cut is now a matter of "If" rather than just "When" wsj.com

โ–ช๏ธGoldman Sachs believes it's time to take profits from the tech sector and invest in other areas. Asset managers are betting on energy and Japanese stocks. AI stock returns will vary as the industry matures. bloomberg.com

โ–ช๏ธMarkets have shifted expectations for the Fed's first rate cut from June to November Data on consumer prices and core inflation exceeded expectations. ๐Ÿ’ฅ

We warned that market is totally wrong about interest rates and inflation... By the way, concerning November Fed meeting... Will they change rate right after election day? ๐Ÿ˜Ž
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ”ˆ Bankruptcies in Germany are growing steadily. Current numbers are 30% higher than normal
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ˜ฑ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ“‰ Who will buy $1 trillion in debt every 100 days?

The most recent Treasury auction was a huge failure. Horrible numbers. There is perhaps a limit to how much US govt debt the market really wants.

If the govt can't control spending, rates have to go higher to attract investors.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸฆFormer US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the "hot" US consumer price inflation report for March meant the risk that the Fed's next move would be a rate hike needed to be taken seriously.

He noted that this probability is somewhere in the range of 15 to 25%.
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ”ˆ Bond traders brace for 5% yields, no rate cuts around the world

โ— Schroders* shorts 2, 5 and 10 year Treasuries;
โ— The 10-year yield rose above 4.5% for the first time since November.

bloomberg.com
* British multinational financial company
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ”ˆ The global economy faces a decade of โ€œsluggish growthโ€ and โ€œpopulation discontentโ€ despite avoiding a much-feared recession, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned .

Calls for measures to increase productivity and reduce debt to avoid the "Cool Twenties" era...
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ”ˆ Bank of America:

We are revising our forecast for a rate cut due to higher than expected inflation data in the US:

โ— the first rate cut is now expected in December (previously in June)
โ— we expect only one rate reduction of 0.25% (previously three reductions)
forexlive.com
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ”ˆ John Williams Head of NY Fed:
(04/11/2024)

โ— There is no need to reduce the rate in the near future.

โ— If the economy develops as forecast, it would be prudent to begin easing policy this year.

โ— The monetary policy is in good condition and the labor market remains strong.

bloomberg.com
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ”ˆ Traders sharply reconsider the likelihood of a rate cut in 2024
Now almost no one believes in such a scenario
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿฅ‡๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ”ˆ what is it this time?๐Ÿ˜”

"The recent move in gold reminds me of a famous quote โ€œThere are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.โ€ Looking at history, gold price can stay in the doldrums for a long time but when it does breakout, the surge is usually fast and furious" - UBS
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