🇺🇸🏦The US economy is still holding up, but showing signs of slowing down .
▪️Retail sales unexpectedly rose while factory output declined.
▪️Other data showed jobless claims remain at the highest level since 2021.
▪️Retail sales unexpectedly rose while factory output declined.
▪️Other data showed jobless claims remain at the highest level since 2021.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Traditionally, data on the balance sheet of the Fed and figures from the Ministry of Finance came out
▪️Let's start with the fact that the US Treasury took only $57.4 billion into its accounts in the week to June 14, increasing the funds on the accounts to $134.9 billion - and this is against the target of 425 billion at the end of the month.
▪️That tsunami of borrowings and the subsequent outflow of liquidity, which was written about almost every day, is not happening yet.
▪️The US Treasury Plans ~$115B Net Borrowing Next Week,
▪️Let's start with the fact that the US Treasury took only $57.4 billion into its accounts in the week to June 14, increasing the funds on the accounts to $134.9 billion - and this is against the target of 425 billion at the end of the month.
▪️That tsunami of borrowings and the subsequent outflow of liquidity, which was written about almost every day, is not happening yet.
▪️The US Treasury Plans ~$115B Net Borrowing Next Week,
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Bank of America:
The closer the Fed gets to the final level of the rate, the more the opinions of officials diverge. Based on the SEP report:
• 2 FOMC members see current rate level (5.25%) as appropriate to end the hike cycle
• 4 officials consider another 0.25% increase worthwhile
• the remaining 12 see at least two more increases of 0.25%
There is a possibility that Powell belongs to the first group, because. his press conference seemed much more dovish than the FOMC statement and SEP.
source: BofA Research, 06/14/2023
The closer the Fed gets to the final level of the rate, the more the opinions of officials diverge. Based on the SEP report:
• 2 FOMC members see current rate level (5.25%) as appropriate to end the hike cycle
• 4 officials consider another 0.25% increase worthwhile
• the remaining 12 see at least two more increases of 0.25%
There is a possibility that Powell belongs to the first group, because. his press conference seemed much more dovish than the FOMC statement and SEP.
source: BofA Research, 06/14/2023
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⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Incompetence or bargain hunting?
The head of the Fed admits: "we do not understand how inflation works", "the Phillips curve does not work", "in addition to demand, as it turned out, there is also supply."
Heading "confessions" directly. And it is not clear whether this is incompetence, because they lived in the same paradigm of the world economy and the equations somehow worked, or whether they understand everything and are trying to carry out controlled destruction.
So we will live to the point that they will think that raising rates in itself increases inflation due to rising costs and the rate should be reduced.
Well, as always, it doesn’t matter whether it’s stupidity or bargain hunting, but “who needs it” earns money.
The head of the Fed admits: "we do not understand how inflation works", "the Phillips curve does not work", "in addition to demand, as it turned out, there is also supply."
Heading "confessions" directly. And it is not clear whether this is incompetence, because they lived in the same paradigm of the world economy and the equations somehow worked, or whether they understand everything and are trying to carry out controlled destruction.
So we will live to the point that they will think that raising rates in itself increases inflation due to rising costs and the rate should be reduced.
Well, as always, it doesn’t matter whether it’s stupidity or bargain hunting, but “who needs it” earns money.
🏦🇺🇸 Goldman believes that the markets are too optimistic about the rate of inflation reduction in the US .
▪️Strategists monitor the impact of energy prices, economic growth rates.
▪️FOMC remains concerned about constant price increases.
▪️Strategists monitor the impact of energy prices, economic growth rates.
▪️FOMC remains concerned about constant price increases.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣 Here is all the Fed's inflation forecasts over the past 2 years.
▪️it is perfectly clear how the Fed, on the one hand, is trying to make verbal interventions, on the other hand, with its complete misunderstanding, it is wishful thinking.
▪️Keep this chart for yourself and look at it every time you read or hear the statements of any head of the monetary authorities of any country and remember - you are either being deceived, or they themselves do not understand s**t.
▪️it is perfectly clear how the Fed, on the one hand, is trying to make verbal interventions, on the other hand, with its complete misunderstanding, it is wishful thinking.
▪️Keep this chart for yourself and look at it every time you read or hear the statements of any head of the monetary authorities of any country and remember - you are either being deceived, or they themselves do not understand s**t.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️-👆For investors again comes a difficult period. Gotta choose
✔️The fact is that the expected return of the main asset classes equaled last week, and now it is the same for treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds and the S&P 500 index.
✔️JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast that portfolios, including sovereign and pension fund portfolios, will be reallocated to bonds to meet allocation targets, the largest rebalancing to bonds since Q4 2021 .
✔️The fact is that the expected return of the main asset classes equaled last week, and now it is the same for treasuries, high-quality corporate bonds and the S&P 500 index.
✔️JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast that portfolios, including sovereign and pension fund portfolios, will be reallocated to bonds to meet allocation targets, the largest rebalancing to bonds since Q4 2021 .
🏦🇨🇳Goldman cut China's GDP forecast, citing limited opportunities to stimulate the economy .
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- who cut his growth forecast for China's economy this year to 5.4% from 6% -- says Beijing is now more restrained due to a declining population, elevated levels of debt and President Xi Jinping's call to curb real estate speculation. This means that any stimulus package will be smaller than in previous downturns, when the authorities increased investment in infrastructure and real estate to stimulate growth.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- who cut his growth forecast for China's economy this year to 5.4% from 6% -- says Beijing is now more restrained due to a declining population, elevated levels of debt and President Xi Jinping's call to curb real estate speculation. This means that any stimulus package will be smaller than in previous downturns, when the authorities increased investment in infrastructure and real estate to stimulate growth.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇬🇧 UK regulator canceled the license of a subsidiary of the Binance crypto exchange! Source
▪️ Binance Markets Limited is de-registered by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) at the request of the company.
▪️ Binance Markets Limited is de-registered by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) at the request of the company.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Goldman Sachs:
The main reason for the increase in the Fed's forecast for the final rate was the slow decline in core inflation this year. Another reason is that officials have become less worried about the risks associated with problems in the banking sector than at previous meetings, and we believe that these risks have indeed decreased.
source: GS Research, 06/14/2023
The main reason for the increase in the Fed's forecast for the final rate was the slow decline in core inflation this year. Another reason is that officials have become less worried about the risks associated with problems in the banking sector than at previous meetings, and we believe that these risks have indeed decreased.
source: GS Research, 06/14/2023
🦅🪙😱 Centralization of decentralization? BlackRock creates an ETF for bitcoin - Part II
❗️The free crypto community screamed about the danger. The world's largest investment fund is formally considered private, but in fact it is not. BlackRock has always helped the US authorities to sweep a variety of crises under the rug - including the last one, with regional banks. And now the tentacles of power are likely to reach the number 1 cryptocurrency, the whole point of which is that there is no single center of control.
🎭So far, the game is playing brilliantly. BlackRock's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already been filed. Coinbase is announced as an official partner. Yes, the same crypto exchange that the SEC is now attacking, calling it a “casino”.
Changpeng Zhao is somehow hinted that it is better to give in to BlackRock than to be outlawed and left with nothing at all.
🕵️♂️The ubiquitous insiders claim to have seen the papers that the investment fund filed with the SEC. In accordance with these documents, BlackRock in the event of a hard fork will have the right to create a copy of Bitcoin - and recognize it as canonical.
🤜🏻 That is, in the second act of this dystopian play , bitcoin is literally squeezed out of the crypto community, transferred under the indirect control of the US authorities, and Coinbase is thrown out as unnecessary.
Mr. Zhao will, at best, receive personal immunity for agreeing to support this monstrous scam from the very beginning.
❗️The free crypto community screamed about the danger. The world's largest investment fund is formally considered private, but in fact it is not. BlackRock has always helped the US authorities to sweep a variety of crises under the rug - including the last one, with regional banks. And now the tentacles of power are likely to reach the number 1 cryptocurrency, the whole point of which is that there is no single center of control.
🎭So far, the game is playing brilliantly. BlackRock's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already been filed. Coinbase is announced as an official partner. Yes, the same crypto exchange that the SEC is now attacking, calling it a “casino”.
Changpeng Zhao is somehow hinted that it is better to give in to BlackRock than to be outlawed and left with nothing at all.
🕵️♂️The ubiquitous insiders claim to have seen the papers that the investment fund filed with the SEC. In accordance with these documents, BlackRock in the event of a hard fork will have the right to create a copy of Bitcoin - and recognize it as canonical.
🤜🏻 That is, in the second act of this dystopian play , bitcoin is literally squeezed out of the crypto community, transferred under the indirect control of the US authorities, and Coinbase is thrown out as unnecessary.
Mr. Zhao will, at best, receive personal immunity for agreeing to support this monstrous scam from the very beginning.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Wall Street buys more Treasury bills, parks less at the Fed .
Central bank reverse repo plunges below $2 trillion for the first time in more than a year
▪️Money market funds are reducing reverse repo transactions with the Fed and buying treasuries, that is, the battle to raise the national debt ceiling has not undermined the credibility of the system.
▪️Analysts say that, on the contrary, funds are likely to step up to buy new Treasury bills issued by the government, which needs to borrow about $1 trillion before the end of the year.
Central bank reverse repo plunges below $2 trillion for the first time in more than a year
▪️Money market funds are reducing reverse repo transactions with the Fed and buying treasuries, that is, the battle to raise the national debt ceiling has not undermined the credibility of the system.
▪️Analysts say that, on the contrary, funds are likely to step up to buy new Treasury bills issued by the government, which needs to borrow about $1 trillion before the end of the year.
WSJ
Wall Street Buys More T-Bills, Parks Less at Fed
The central bank’s reverse repo fell below $2 trillion for the first time in more than a year.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Bitcoins are flowing away from exchanges (mainly from derivatives) at a very fast pace. Investors are preparing for regulation way?
Either some exchange should close, or there was expiration today. In general, incomprehensible mystical events occur.
There was an understanding on how BlackRock wants to solve the problem with the previous SEC claims on the risks of price manipulation (this was the formal reason for the refusal of registration):
On page 36of filing 19b-4 , it states that to mitigate the effects of market manipulation, the Nasdaq exchange (where the proposed ETF will be listed) will be engaged to enter into a joint oversight agreement with the operator of the bitcoin spot trading platform.
Joint supervision agreements allow the exchange of information on market trading activities, clearing activities and customer identification, which minimizes the possibility of market manipulation.
Either some exchange should close, or there was expiration today. In general, incomprehensible mystical events occur.
There was an understanding on how BlackRock wants to solve the problem with the previous SEC claims on the risks of price manipulation (this was the formal reason for the refusal of registration):
On page 36of filing 19b-4 , it states that to mitigate the effects of market manipulation, the Nasdaq exchange (where the proposed ETF will be listed) will be engaged to enter into a joint oversight agreement with the operator of the bitcoin spot trading platform.
Joint supervision agreements allow the exchange of information on market trading activities, clearing activities and customer identification, which minimizes the possibility of market manipulation.
⚡️🇩🇪☢️🗣Gold hits new all-time high near $2,100 next year - Commerzbank
Commerzbank economists adjusted their gold outlook after last week's Fed meeting
◾️We lowered our gold price forecast accordingly and expect side trading for now. Overall, our 2H forecast is only $50 lower than before (year-end $2,000, previously $2,050), which, of course, hardly deserves mention.
◾️Our revision indicates that we see limited upside potential for the remainder of the year. However, this does not mean that we do not see upside potential: we continue to expect the Fed to peak interest rates in the near future, and then begin to gradually prepare the market for a reversal in interest rates.
◾️Accordingly, we stick to our forecast for next year, when we expect the price of gold to hit a new all-time high of around $2,100.
Commerzbank economists adjusted their gold outlook after last week's Fed meeting
◾️We lowered our gold price forecast accordingly and expect side trading for now. Overall, our 2H forecast is only $50 lower than before (year-end $2,000, previously $2,050), which, of course, hardly deserves mention.
◾️Our revision indicates that we see limited upside potential for the remainder of the year. However, this does not mean that we do not see upside potential: we continue to expect the Fed to peak interest rates in the near future, and then begin to gradually prepare the market for a reversal in interest rates.
◾️Accordingly, we stick to our forecast for next year, when we expect the price of gold to hit a new all-time high of around $2,100.
💸Meantime, Gold-focused ETF sales have resumed 👆
Gold-focused ETFs have resumed their decline. For 13 consecutive days, the stocks in the funds have been declining, which brings them to the level before the bankruptcy of SVB bank. With hawkish signals from central banks, high real rates can be expected to hurt gold. Given the technical weakness of the commodity, the risks for gold are growing.
⚠️Gold is usually seen as a hedge against inflation. Conventional wisdom says that an ounce of gold can buy about the same amount of bread as in the days of Babylon. (For reference, the answer is 350 loaves). But nowadays, owning and storing gold comes with a cost. Which means that the metal becomes very sensitive to changes in real yield.
📊 At the end of 2021, 10-year TIPS returns were below -1%. Today they are above 1.5%. Thus, in the absence of demand for insurance against financial Armageddon (the other main use case for gold), investors should logically continue to sell the metal, which should lead to a decrease in the price of gold.
Gold-focused ETFs have resumed their decline. For 13 consecutive days, the stocks in the funds have been declining, which brings them to the level before the bankruptcy of SVB bank. With hawkish signals from central banks, high real rates can be expected to hurt gold. Given the technical weakness of the commodity, the risks for gold are growing.
⚠️Gold is usually seen as a hedge against inflation. Conventional wisdom says that an ounce of gold can buy about the same amount of bread as in the days of Babylon. (For reference, the answer is 350 loaves). But nowadays, owning and storing gold comes with a cost. Which means that the metal becomes very sensitive to changes in real yield.
📊 At the end of 2021, 10-year TIPS returns were below -1%. Today they are above 1.5%. Thus, in the absence of demand for insurance against financial Armageddon (the other main use case for gold), investors should logically continue to sell the metal, which should lead to a decrease in the price of gold.
☝️☢️🗣 - 🇺🇸The US is getting ready to create a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency!
▪️ US House Committee to Vote on 2 Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Bills in July!
▪️ The McHenry bill will be able to provide a clear definition of when a token can be considered a security, based on the level of decentralization of the project.
▪️ The committee will also discuss a second bill on the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins.
▪️ US House Committee to Vote on 2 Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Bills in July!
▪️ The McHenry bill will be able to provide a clear definition of when a token can be considered a security, based on the level of decentralization of the project.
▪️ The committee will also discuss a second bill on the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins.
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣BlackRock Is Behind Bitcoin's Explosive Growth, Says Majority of Participants
✔️The prevailing opinion in the market is that the BTC rocket was provoked by reports that BlackRock unexpectedly filed an application to form a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the United States. It was followed by other market participants, competitors, and rumors that Blackrock knows something that others do not.
✔️BTC has jumped over 20% since Blackrock filed
✔️The prevailing opinion in the market is that the BTC rocket was provoked by reports that BlackRock unexpectedly filed an application to form a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the United States. It was followed by other market participants, competitors, and rumors that Blackrock knows something that others do not.
✔️BTC has jumped over 20% since Blackrock filed
⚡️🇺🇸☢️🗣Powell (speech before Congress):
(21.06.2023)
• Factors contributing to lower inflation are emerging, but much later than we had hoped
• Inflation in the services sector is significantly less responsive to rate hikes
• We never used the word " pause " and I wouldn't use it now
• Most officials believe that the rate will be raised two more times this year
• The US economy has slowed significantly in the past year, the labor market remains very tight
• Inflation remains well above our long-term target and will take a long time to beat
• Skipping the rate increase will allow the Committee to assess the additional information and its implications for the monetary policy
• Nearly all FOMC participants expect it to be appropriate to raise the rate a little more towards the end of the year
• The US banking system is strong and stable
(21.06.2023)
• Factors contributing to lower inflation are emerging, but much later than we had hoped
• Inflation in the services sector is significantly less responsive to rate hikes
• We never used the word " pause " and I wouldn't use it now
• Most officials believe that the rate will be raised two more times this year
• The US economy has slowed significantly in the past year, the labor market remains very tight
• Inflation remains well above our long-term target and will take a long time to beat
• Skipping the rate increase will allow the Committee to assess the additional information and its implications for the monetary policy
• Nearly all FOMC participants expect it to be appropriate to raise the rate a little more towards the end of the year
• The US banking system is strong and stable