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The best God damn analysis you've ever had the pleasure of seeing.

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Forwarded from Forflies VIP
Bitcoin is down another 3% today and is now trading below 8000 Dollars.

A 3% drop is pretty bad, but the worst is that the 8000 Dollars level appears to have already turned into resistance.

This is extremely bearish and Bitcoin is looking very weak right now. I'm very tempted to set a momentum short order already around 7800 Dollars.

Also, Bitcoin did leave this descending channel I mentioned yesterday, but it only took a few hours before it started trading within that channel again. The lower trend line is now around 7700 Dollars so a drop down to that level would really not surprise me now.

- @Forflies
Bitcoin has been trading within a descending channel over the past 6,5 days and it appears as it finally broke out of it, leading to this 3,5% pump back above 8100 Dollars. However, now Bitcoin must face the 8230 Dollars resistance which rejected it already 2 times before, and it looks like it just rejected BTC a third time.

Unfortunately this resistance lines up with a red kumo on the hourly, which usually doesn't provide strong resistance, but appears to have affected a very weak Bitcoin. What could happen next is that BTC drops back down to around 8000 Dollars in which case we could see a bullish retest of this channel.

However, this could also be seen as a triple top at 8230 Dollars, which would be very bearish, but I personally think that it's too early to call it a triple top.

- @Forflies
At this moment, Bitcoin is trading right at that resistance I mentioned before. This is extremely interesting and as Bitcoin is already up 5,5% today, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets rejeted here. However, as long as it doesn't dump below 7950, I'm slightly optimistic.

I decided to not set any order right now and just let this play out over the night. I will re-assess the situation tomorrow and then set some momentum short and momentum long orders.

- @Forflies
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: @Forflies
Bitcoin is pumping and is now back at 8600 Dollars after briefly wicking up to 8700 Dollars. Sure, this is a good sign, but do not get euphoric because Bitcoin is now at a very important point.

It's currently trading within horizontal resistance and within a large red kumo on the 4h. In most cases where Bitcoin breaks above a red kumo, it does so within a short amount of time (maybe 10-15 candles) and within a clear uptrend. This means that a rejection here would not only indicate the strength of this resistance, but could also mean that Bitcoin leaves this red kumo again, which could push it back down to the low 8000s.

However, this pump is nonetheless a bullish sign, especially because it indicates that the 8200 Dollars level has now turned into support again.

- @Forflies
Forwarded from Forflies VIP

It's a classic: Bitcoin pumps and alts dump (at least in terms of Bitcoin). This often results in good trading opportunities, and I think Tron is offering such an opportunity now as it's approaching strong support which is reinforced by a green kumo on the 4h. I decided to ladder longs within this support. If Bitcoin takes another leg up, TRX could dump a bit more and fill my orders. Of course, Tron could also dump right through this support, but the R/R looks decent and hitting 0.00000185 BTC after dumping from 0.00000208 BTC would already mean an 11% drop, after which a bounce is more likely to occur.

This is how I'll trade it.

Long, 5x
Entries: 0.00000185 BTC and 0.00000177 BTC
SL: 0.00000174 BTC (-19%)
0.00000189 BTC (11% / 22%)
0.00000193 BTC (21% / 33%)
0.00000196 BTC (30% / 41%)
0.00000205 BTC (55% / 58%)

- The first number in the brackets refers to the profit in case only the first entry is filled, the second number refers to the profit in case both entries are filled.
- I'll move the SL to my entry as soon as the first target is hit.
- If I get stopped out, I might re-enter at a better price.

- @Forflies
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Forwarded from Forflies VIP

Tron is developing absolutely beautifully. It just touched that support I mentioned a few days ago and is now up 7% since then. This makes it even more annoying that my long entry was missed by only 0.00000001 BTC, but things like this happen. I'm now exploring long opportunities around 0.00000190 BTC.

- @Forflies
Continued selloff re yesterday's video.

Completely expected movements here.
Watching to see HOW these levels are reacted to now but I already feel that it looks quite clear - there's a lot of weakness here.

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Forwarded from Forflies VIP
Ethereum often moves in the same direction as Bitcoin, just with more momentum. And today was no different. While Bitcoin dumped only 2,5%, Ethereum dumped 3,5% in the same time.

This caused my Ethereum momentum short to open as well, and within minutes, two of my targets at 10% and at 21% profit were hit. Now, the rest of my position is at 10% profit. With my SL already moved to my entry, I can't lose on this and will keep this position open in case Ethereum dumps more. I will also adjust my next target to 171,40 Dollars at 28% profit. I don't intend to change my last target.

- @Forflies
Cute little bearish divergence on XRP right now.
Looks like it's ready to break down soon especially if BTC bounces even just a little bit.
it's been climbing too high for what seems to me too long and I wouldn't be surprised if a dump is ready to happen now.

I'm interested in shorting here at current levels and closing the part of, or the whole, position ~100satoshis lower around 3450 for a modest profit.

- @Forflies
Forwarded from Forflies VIP
Interestingly, this dump pushed Tron down to 0.00000183 BTC, filling my long order at 0.00000185 BTC. Just as assumed, Tron's support around this area turned out to be very strong, providing TRX with enough energy to hit my first proft-take order. This means that I'm now in an active TRX long, having locked in an 11% profit already and with my SL at my entry of 0.00000185 BTC.

This is a total of 3 successful trades playing out at the same time.

- @Forflies
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Forwarded from Forflies VIP
One day. Four low risk trades with beautiful profits.

Bitcoin - closed a 11%, rest stopped break even - no losses
Ethereum - closed a 21%, rest stopped break even - no losses
Tron - closed a 11%, rest stopped break even - no losses
Ripple - closed a 16%, rest stopped break even - no losses

The gains here are modest compared to what we usually see, yet they STILL outperformed the rest of the market.

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Bitcoin is back above 8000 Dollars and is now trading just below 8100 Dollars. It set a new higher low which, considering the higher highs, is not a good sign. If this ascending channel plays out, BTC could be heading for a new low below 7600 Dollars. This would line up well with horizontal support.

Another very interesting thing is that the kumo on the 4h was green, then turned red, and just turned green again. This means that the Bitcoin bulls have an excellent chance to step in as they wouldn't have to deal with strong kumo resistance. We will see whether they seize the opportunity.

- @Forflies
Bitcoin's BEARISH Clouds Are Clearing Up! But...

- @Forflies
Bitcoin is back below 8000 Dollars, which implies just how little meaning the 8000 Dollars support has. Bitcoin also appears to be breaking down from this asending channel, and if the market agrees, I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin below 7700 Dollars soon. I'm now feeling very comfortable about my momentum short order set below support.

I'm currently not interested in longing and I don't believe that Bitcoin will recover in the short term.

- @Forflies
Bitcoin is weak.

It's currently trading within an ascending channel, which is a bearish pattern. It also appears to be trading within a descending channel within the larger ascending channel - an interesting constellation.

What's also interesting are the changing kumos on the 4h. Rarely do we see 2 green and 2 red kumos within only 2-3 days. The last time this occured was in January 2019. We've also seen this in June 2017 and in August 2016. In all cases, Bitcoin experienced a big move soon after (to the downside). I don't think that this necessarily indicates an upcoming dump; It just shows that the bulls and the bears are taking turns in driving the price.

However, the general direction of the price development over the past few days has been very clear, and I believe that we could soon see BTC below 7700 Dollars. If BTC drops below 7700 Dollars, this bear market is very likely extended by another few weeks.

If BTC pumps (which I think is unlikely), I'm interested in shorting it around 8400 Dollars.

- @Forflies