Brazil showing some muscles in an economic argument with China

In Brazil, anti-dumping investigations of Chinese industrial products have intensified amid a surge in cheap imports.

The Ministry of Development, Industry, and Foreign Trade of the South American country has opened at least 6 investigations of anti-competitive behavior against producers from China since autumn 2023. According to Financial Times, the checks cover a wide range of imported goods, including shipments of chemicals, tires, and metal products. Out of more than 80 protectionist measures already in effect in Brazil, more than half were introduced against Chinese companies.

From January to February 2024, exports from China increased by 7.1% y/y, significantly outpacing the growth of imports by only 3.5%. As a result, the trade surplus for this period reached a record $125 billion. The volume of Chinese steel sales grew by 32.6%, but in value terms fell by 10%, smartphones – plus 2.8% by volume and minus 18.2% by value, cars – plus 22.1% by volume and only plus 10.6% by value. In fact, cheap exports from China are being redirected to markets in Latin America, Africa, and Asia due to falling trade volumes with developed countries: -8.5% for Germany, -16.4% for the Netherlands, -4.4% for France. Chinese exports to the States grew by 5%, but imports fell by 9.7%. Meanwhile, China's trade turnover with Brazil for two months jumped the most – by 33%.

Beijing is striving to accelerate the pace of its own economic recovery based on increasing its share in global goods production, but this leads to negative consequences for the industrial potential of its trade partners. Earlier, Western countries, including the USA and the EU, accused China of dumping practices. Amid the escalation of trade relations, Washington, together with allies, threatened Beijing with retaliatory protectionist measures, which may affect high-tech Chinese exports, including deliveries of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels to global markets.

Unlike the escalating conflict with the West, a long-term trade dispute between Brazil and China is unlikely due to the strong dependence of Brazilian raw material producers, such as soy, corn, oil, iron ore, and meat, on the Chinese market. China remains a key trading partner for Brazil, buying almost a third of all export goods. In 2023, the volume of Brazilian exports to the country exceeded $104 billion (to the USA – $37 billion), while imports, mainly industrial goods, semiconductors, and cars, from China amounted to $53 billion.

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