Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

📈 To reach 🔵 UCL league phase from the Champions Path, as of 8 Aug:

73% 🇬🇷 AEK Athens
54% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Celtic
53% 🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb
48% 🇸🇰 Slovan Bratislava
47% 🇳🇴 Viking
47% 🇦🇹 LASK
37% 🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda
33% 🇩🇰 AGF Aarhus
22% 🇸🇮 NK Celje
21% 🇧🇬 Levski Sofia
18% 🇦🇲 Ararat-Armenia
16% 🇦🇿 Sabah FK
14% 🇮🇱 Hapoel Beer-Sheva
12% 🇸🇪 Mjällby
6% 🇰🇿 Kairat Almaty

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

📈 13 teams most likely to play 🟢 UECL league phase 2026/27, as of 8 Aug:

92% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brighton & Hove Albion
91% 🇩🇪 SC Freiburg
91% 🇮🇹 Atalanta
90% 🇱🇹 Kauno Žalgiris
85% 🇪🇸 Getafe
82% 🇩🇰 FC København
81% 🇵🇹 Sporting Braga
77% 🇨🇾 Pafos FC
76% 🇬🇪 Iberia 1999
75% 🇫🇷 AS Monaco
71% 🇮🇪 Shamrock Rovers
68% 🇽🇰 FC Drita
68% 🇨🇭 FC Thun
...

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Both 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt (13-2-2) and 🇳🇴 Viking (13-1-2) have won >80% of points this season.

Unlike last year, this time both will play a full European schedule in the autumn, which could potentially play its role.

🏆 To win Eliteserien:

64% 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt
35% 🇳🇴 Viking
1% 🇳🇴 Tromsø
0.01% 🇳🇴 Lillestrøm

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities for 180+ competitions available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇦🇹 Austria and 🇩🇰 Denmark are the only two nations outside Top 9 that are projected to enter 4⃣ teams into UEFA league stages this summer.

🇦🇹:
▪️3 in 🟠 UEL
▪️1 in 🟢 UECL

🇩🇰:
▪️1 in 🟠 UEL
▪️3 in 🟢 UECL

(as of 9 Aug)

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

☠️ Teams with the highest risk of experiencing ❌❌❌ triple elimination and missing out on league stage football entirely:

64% 🇫🇴 KI Klaksvik
56% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Hearts
55% 🇵🇱 Gornik Zabrze
50% Larne
47% 🇦🇱 Egnatia
45% 🇮🇸 Vikingur Reykjavik
36% 🇫🇮 KuPS
35% 🇬🇮 Lincoln Red Imps
14% 🇬🇪 Iberia
13% 🇮🇪 Shamrock Rovers
...

📊 Chart shows the probability to reach the league stage, so the risk to miss out is = 100% - probability shown.

👉 Full details on projected paths and seedings for all teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇵🇹 Sporting CP and 🇵🇹 Porto account for €81.1m of Liga Portugal clubs' €93.5m guaranteed minimum prize money from UEFA.

Expected across all five: €176.6m.

▪️Orange = minimum guaranteed
▪️Grey = average across 10,000 simulated seasons

Despite playing in a higher tier competition, 🇵🇹 Torreense's guaranteed minimum in 🟠 UEL is lower than 🇵🇹 Braga's if they qualify for 🟢 UECL.

Reason ▶️ Value Pillar which rewards past performances through 5y and 10y club coefficient.

👉 Detailed club-by-club financial analysis, with cash flow estimates of when exactly UEFA prize money is paid out available in our 💰 Prize Money Lab

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

We've added the new 💶 Cash Flow feature to the 💰 Prize Money Lab.

It helps the clubs plan their cash flow from UEFA revenue during the season.

This is a hypothetical example of 🇹🇷 Galatasaray, assuming they repeat last season's result in 🔵 UCL: 10 pts, 20th place, eliminated in R16.

1⃣ 96% of the 🔵 UCL Starting Fee + 75% of the Value Pillar is paid on 18 Sep 2026

2⃣ Bonuses for points won in MD1-4 are paid on 20 Nov 2026 (€700k per point)

3⃣ Bonuses for points won in MD5-8 + league ranking shares (usually around €300k per each higher position in league stage, we project ~€308k) are paid on 19 Feb 2027

4⃣ Bonuses for KO Playoff (€1m) and R16 (€11m) participation are paid on 26 Mar 2027

5⃣ Remaining 25% of the Value Pillar is paid on 11 Jun 2027

6⃣ Remaining 4% of the Starting Fee is paid in Oct 2027

👉 Detailed club-by-club financial analysis, with cash flow estimates of when exactly UEFA prize money is paid out available in our 💰 Prize Money Lab

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Two rounds in, Celtic 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 are already 5 points ahead of Rangers 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

To win the 🏆 Pro League:

58% 🇧🇪 Club Brugge
33% 🇧🇪 Union SG
9% everyone else combined

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb are overwhelming favorites to win their 20th league title 🏆 in last 22 seasons.

🏆 To win HNL (as of 10 Aug):

75% 🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb
12% 🇭🇷 Rijeka
6% 🇭🇷 Hajduk Split
...

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

[🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa - season projection]

🏆 Title probabilities:

33% 🇵🇱 Lech Poznań
19% 🇵🇱 Legia Warsaw
11% 🇵🇱 Górnik Zabrze
11% 🇵🇱 Jagiellonia
5% 🇵🇱 Raków
4% 🇵🇱 Katowice
3% 🇵🇱 Wisla Krakow
3% 🇵🇱 Pogoń Szczecin
...

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our Simulator

🚨 Updated after every round!

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

[🇳🇱 Eredivisie - season projection]

🏆 Title probabilities:

56% 🇳🇱 PSV Eindhoven
13% 🇳🇱 Feyenoord
10% 🇳🇱 Ajax
9% 🇳🇱 AZ Alkmaar
5% 🇳🇱 Twente
...

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🔵 UCL Pot 1 is locked. 🔒

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸
🇩🇪
🇮🇹
🇫🇷

Each team will play 2 games v other teams from the Pot.

⛔️ Teams from the same country cannot play against each other.

This increases the chance that 🇫🇷 PSG, 🇩🇪 Bayern, 🇮🇹 Inter will be paired with teams from 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇪🇸.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

[🔵 UCL Play-off Round - Projected pairs]

📊 Probabilities to reach the PO round shown next to team names.

Update with the latest betting odds blended into the model.

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA Qualifiers available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

[🟠 UEL Play-off Round - Projected pairs]

📊 Probabilities to reach UEL PO shown next to team names.

Update with the latest betting odds blended into the model.

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA Qualifiers available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

[🟢 UECL Play-off Round - Projected pairs]

📊 Probabilities to reach UECL PO shown next to team names.

Update with the latest betting odds blended into the model.

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA Qualifiers available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇸🇪 Sirius failed to win for only the third time in the whole season today (13-3-0), but are still with a gigantic lead at the top!

🏆 To win Allsvenskan:

94% 🇸🇪 IK Sirius
5% 🇸🇪 Hammarby
1% 🇸🇪 Djurgårdens IF
0.3% everyone else combined

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

[🇧🇬 Parva Liga - season projection]

🏆 Title probabilities:

61% 🇧🇬 Levski Sofia
21% 🇧🇬 Ludogorets
12% 🇧🇬 CSKA Sofia
5% 🇧🇬 CSKA 1948
...

📈 Championship Group probabilities (Top 4):

99% 🇧🇬 Levski Sofia
94% 🇧🇬 Ludogorets
87% 🇧🇬 CSKA Sofia
75% 🇧🇬 CSKA 1948
25% 🇧🇬 Arda Kardzhali
8% 🇧🇬 Botev Plovdiv
5% 🇧🇬 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3% 🇧🇬 Spartak Varna
2% 🇧🇬 Cherno More Varna
1% 🇧🇬 Botev Vratsa
...

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

⚽️ La Liga starts next weekend!

🏆 Title probabilities:

53% 🇪🇸 Barcelona
35% 🇪🇸 Real Madrid
6% 🇪🇸 Atlético Madrid
2% 🇪🇸 Villarreal
1% 🇪🇸 Betis
...

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇪🇸 Real Madrid are guaranteed to get about €25m more than 🇪🇸 Villarreal from 🔵 UCL prize money before the first ball is even kicked.

Value Pillar rewards the teams based on their position in:
▪️5y club coefficient rankings
▪️10y club coefficient rankings
▪️TV market rankings

This is the reason why clubs may have identical on-field performances but vastly different 💰 UEFA Prize Money allocations.

👉 Detailed club-by-club financial analysis, with cash flow estimates of when exactly UEFA prize money is paid out available in our 💰 Prize Money Lab