Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

✅️ Ten teams with a perfect European record so far, with more than 1 game played.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Five teams that played more than 2 European games this season and lost all of them.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇬🇷 OFI Crete v 🇧🇬 CSKA Sofia
🇧🇪 STVV v 🇨🇾 Omonia
🇹🇷 Beşiktaş v 🇱🇹 Kauno Žalgiris

...are the three 🟠 UEL PO matchups with the highest probability of happening.

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇳🇴 Tromsø v Brighton 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Hearts v Rapid Wien 🇦🇹
🇩🇰 Nordsjaelland v St Gallen 🇨🇭
🇪🇸 Getafe v Partizan 🇷🇸
🇨🇭 Lugano v Maccabi TA 🇮🇱

...are the five 🟢 UECL PO matchups with the highest probability of happening.

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🔝 To finish Top 15 in 5y country ranking:

99% 🇩🇰 Denmark
99% 🇳🇴 Norway
91% 🇨🇾 Cyprus
--
10% 🇨🇭 Switzerland
<1% 🇭🇷 Croatia
<1% 🇦🇹 Austria
0.1% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland
<0.1% 🇭🇺 Hungary

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios in coefficient races available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

💰 Eredivisie clubs in Europe this season, route by route.

🇳🇱 PSV and 🇳🇱 Feyenoord have 🔵 UCL money locked in: €101.7m between them, 70% of the entire Dutch haul.

For 🇳🇱 NEC, 🇳🇱 Ajax and 🇳🇱 Twente the season splits in two, with huge financial ramifications depending on where they end up.

▪️Orange is minimum guaranteed money on each route. Grey is the average across 10,000 simulated seasons ending there.

👉 Detailed club-by-club financial analysis, with cash flow estimates of when exactly UEFA prize money is paid out available in our 💰 Prize Money Lab

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🔵 UCL league phase, projected clubs per country (as of 8 Aug):

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸🇪🇸
🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹
🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪
🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷
🇳🇱🇳🇱
🇵🇹🇵🇹
🇧🇪
🇬🇷
🇹🇷
🇨🇿
🇳🇴
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿
🇭🇷
🇺🇦
🇸🇰
🇷🇸

17 countries projected to share the 36 places.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🟠 UEL league phase, projected clubs per country (as of 8 Aug):

3️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇦🇹
2️⃣ 🇪🇸 🇮🇹 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇳🇱 🇵🇹 🇧🇪 🇹🇷 🇨🇿 🇳🇴 🇵🇱 🇧🇬
1️⃣ 🇬🇷 🇩🇰 🇨🇾 🇭🇺 🇷🇴 🇸🇮

20 countries projected to share the 36 places.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🟢 UECL league phase, projected clubs per country (as of 8 Aug):

3️⃣ 🇬🇷 🇩🇰
2️⃣ 🇳🇱 🇧🇪 🇨🇭
1️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇪🇸 🇮🇹 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇵🇹 🇹🇷 🇦🇹 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 🇭🇷 🇨🇾 🇸🇪 🇮🇱 🇦🇿 🇮🇪 🇦🇲 🇧🇦 🇽🇰 🇰🇿 🇫🇮 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇬🇮 🇬🇪

29 countries projected to share the 36 places.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

📈 To reach 🔵 UCL league phase from the Champions Path, as of 8 Aug:

73% 🇬🇷 AEK Athens
54% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Celtic
53% 🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb
48% 🇸🇰 Slovan Bratislava
47% 🇳🇴 Viking
47% 🇦🇹 LASK
37% 🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda
33% 🇩🇰 AGF Aarhus
22% 🇸🇮 NK Celje
21% 🇧🇬 Levski Sofia
18% 🇦🇲 Ararat-Armenia
16% 🇦🇿 Sabah FK
14% 🇮🇱 Hapoel Beer-Sheva
12% 🇸🇪 Mjällby
6% 🇰🇿 Kairat Almaty

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

📈 13 teams most likely to play 🟢 UECL league phase 2026/27, as of 8 Aug:

92% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brighton & Hove Albion
91% 🇩🇪 SC Freiburg
91% 🇮🇹 Atalanta
90% 🇱🇹 Kauno Žalgiris
85% 🇪🇸 Getafe
82% 🇩🇰 FC København
81% 🇵🇹 Sporting Braga
77% 🇨🇾 Pafos FC
76% 🇬🇪 Iberia 1999
75% 🇫🇷 AS Monaco
71% 🇮🇪 Shamrock Rovers
68% 🇽🇰 FC Drita
68% 🇨🇭 FC Thun
...

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Both 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt (13-2-2) and 🇳🇴 Viking (13-1-2) have won >80% of points this season.

Unlike last year, this time both will play a full European schedule in the autumn, which could potentially play its role.

🏆 To win Eliteserien:

64% 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt
35% 🇳🇴 Viking
1% 🇳🇴 Tromsø
0.01% 🇳🇴 Lillestrøm

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities for 180+ competitions available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇦🇹 Austria and 🇩🇰 Denmark are the only two nations outside Top 9 that are projected to enter 4⃣ teams into UEFA league stages this summer.

🇦🇹:
▪️3 in 🟠 UEL
▪️1 in 🟢 UECL

🇩🇰:
▪️1 in 🟠 UEL
▪️3 in 🟢 UECL

(as of 9 Aug)

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for all teams in UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

☠️ Teams with the highest risk of experiencing ❌❌❌ triple elimination and missing out on league stage football entirely:

64% 🇫🇴 KI Klaksvik
56% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Hearts
55% 🇵🇱 Gornik Zabrze
50% Larne
47% 🇦🇱 Egnatia
45% 🇮🇸 Vikingur Reykjavik
36% 🇫🇮 KuPS
35% 🇬🇮 Lincoln Red Imps
14% 🇬🇪 Iberia
13% 🇮🇪 Shamrock Rovers
...

📊 Chart shows the probability to reach the league stage, so the risk to miss out is = 100% - probability shown.

👉 Full details on projected paths and seedings for all teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇵🇹 Sporting CP and 🇵🇹 Porto account for €81.1m of Liga Portugal clubs' €93.5m guaranteed minimum prize money from UEFA.

Expected across all five: €176.6m.

▪️Orange = minimum guaranteed
▪️Grey = average across 10,000 simulated seasons

Despite playing in a higher tier competition, 🇵🇹 Torreense's guaranteed minimum in 🟠 UEL is lower than 🇵🇹 Braga's if they qualify for 🟢 UECL.

Reason ▶️ Value Pillar which rewards past performances through 5y and 10y club coefficient.

👉 Detailed club-by-club financial analysis, with cash flow estimates of when exactly UEFA prize money is paid out available in our 💰 Prize Money Lab

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

We've added the new 💶 Cash Flow feature to the 💰 Prize Money Lab.

It helps the clubs plan their cash flow from UEFA revenue during the season.

This is a hypothetical example of 🇹🇷 Galatasaray, assuming they repeat last season's result in 🔵 UCL: 10 pts, 20th place, eliminated in R16.

1⃣ 96% of the 🔵 UCL Starting Fee + 75% of the Value Pillar is paid on 18 Sep 2026

2⃣ Bonuses for points won in MD1-4 are paid on 20 Nov 2026 (€700k per point)

3⃣ Bonuses for points won in MD5-8 + league ranking shares (usually around €300k per each higher position in league stage, we project ~€308k) are paid on 19 Feb 2027

4⃣ Bonuses for KO Playoff (€1m) and R16 (€11m) participation are paid on 26 Mar 2027

5⃣ Remaining 25% of the Value Pillar is paid on 11 Jun 2027

6⃣ Remaining 4% of the Starting Fee is paid in Oct 2027

👉 Detailed club-by-club financial analysis, with cash flow estimates of when exactly UEFA prize money is paid out available in our 💰 Prize Money Lab

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Two rounds in, Celtic 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 are already 5 points ahead of Rangers 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

To win the 🏆 Pro League:

58% 🇧🇪 Club Brugge
33% 🇧🇪 Union SG
9% everyone else combined

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb are overwhelming favorites to win their 20th league title 🏆 in last 22 seasons.

🏆 To win HNL (as of 10 Aug):

75% 🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb
12% 🇭🇷 Rijeka
6% 🇭🇷 Hajduk Split
...

👉 Full breakdown of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

[🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa - season projection]

🏆 Title probabilities:

33% 🇵🇱 Lech Poznań
19% 🇵🇱 Legia Warsaw
11% 🇵🇱 Górnik Zabrze
11% 🇵🇱 Jagiellonia
5% 🇵🇱 Raków
4% 🇵🇱 Katowice
3% 🇵🇱 Wisla Krakow
3% 🇵🇱 Pogoń Szczecin
...

👉 Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 180+ competitions available in our Simulator

🚨 Updated after every round!