Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

📈 12 teams with the highest probability to end up in UECL league stage:

92% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brighton & Hove Albion
88% 🇮🇹 Atalanta
84% 🇩🇪 SC Freiburg
83% 🇫🇷 AS Monaco
76% 🇵🇹 Sporting Braga
70% 🇬🇪 Iberia 1999
69% 🇪🇸 Getafe
68% 🇬🇷 OFI Crete
63% 🇮🇸 Vikingur Reykjavik
63% 🇳🇱 Ajax
62% 🇳🇴 Lillestrøm SK
61% 🇱🇹 Kauno Zalgiris

👉 Full details on projected paths and seedings for all 237 teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🤏 There are only 2 spots that lead to 🔵 UCL league phase via the league path of qualifiers.

Probabilities are heavily tilted towards the outcome that those spots will be taken by 2 of the following teams:

🇫🇷 Lyon
🇧🇪 Union SG
🇬🇷 Olympiacos
🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt
🇹🇷 Fenerbahçe

👉 Full details on projected paths and seedings for all 237 teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇵🇹 Portugal is <5.000 coeff pts behind 🇫🇷 France in the race for Top 5 in 5y country ranking.

Top 5 position brings 4 🔵 UCL spots.

If they want to attack it this year, it is imperative for 🇵🇹 Portugal to bring all 5 teams into league stages, and then utilize the lower denominator to amass coeff points.

🇫🇷 France already have 6 teams safe in league stages and are favorites to bring in the 7th.

To finish Top 5 in 5y coeff ranking (as of 26 July):

93% 🇫🇷 France
7% 🇵🇹 Portugal

👉 Full details about scenarios & probabilities in coefficient race and UEFA qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Sirius' 🇸🇪 tempo of winning points compared to their best, worst and average of last 9 seasons.

❗️With 38 pts after 14/30 rounds, Sirius 🇸🇪 are already above their average SEASONAL point tally (36.8 pts).

And only 4 pts below their best seasonal record in that time period (42 pts).

Incredible.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇸🇪 Sirius are absolutely crushing it, with a 12-2-0 record since the start of the season‼️

📈 11 points advantage, and a game in hand over 🇸🇪 Hammarby.

It seems we're on the road for another surprising 🇸🇪champion, for the second year in a row!

🏆 To win Allsvenskan:

79% 🇸🇪 Sirius
11% 🇸🇪 Hammarby
7% 🇸🇪 Djurgarden
1% 🇸🇪 AIK
1% 🇸🇪 Malmö
...

👉 Full details on 70+ competitions (incl. all 55 European leagues!) available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🔝 Bodø/Glimt jumps to the top of 🇳🇴 Eliteserien after Viking dropped 2 pts at Aalesund.

Viking still have a game in hand, but the 🏆 chances have now tilted further in Glimt's favor.

🏆 To win the league:

67% 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt
32% 🇳🇴 Viking
1% 🇳🇴 Tromsø
<0.1% everyone else combined

👉 Full details on 70+ competitions (incl. all 55 European leagues!) available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

With 11 rounds to go and with a 7-point lead, 🇮🇪 Shamrock Rovers are heavily favored to defend their League of Ireland title 🏆.

To win the league:

86% 🇮🇪 Shamrock Rovers
7% 🇮🇪 Bohemians
65 🇮🇪 St Patrick's Athletic
0.2% 🇮🇪 Shelbourne
<0.1% 🇮🇪 Dundalk

👉 Full details on 70+ competitions (incl. all 55 European leagues!) available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

💰 How much will English clubs earn from UEFA in 2026/27?

Expected prize money, across 10,000 simulated seasons:

€123.0m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Arsenal
€110.2m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man City
€101.8m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool
€92.7m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man United
€89.9m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa
€27.7m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bournemouth
€24.3m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Crystal Palace
€20.6m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Sunderland
€14.9m 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Brighton

❗️The orange part of each bar is what they are ALREADY guaranteed, whatever happens on the pitch.

📈 The twist: Liverpool (€62.3m) and Man City (€61.5m) have a HIGHER floor than Arsenal (€58.8m), even though Arsenal are expected to earn the most.

Why? The Value Pillar pays on coefficient and market rank, not on results.

⚠️ Brighton's floor is only €0.8m, because they still have to come through UECL qualifying.

Full breakdown for all 237 clubs available in the Prize Money Lab 👇️
https://football-md.com/prize-money-lab

‌Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Built for clubs budgeting a European campaign, and for media who need the number behind the story.

Season licence (2026/27) available for purchase now.

Includes full FMD platform access (Simulator and more) as an extra bonus.

More details 👇️
https://football-md.com/blog/launching-the-prize-money-lab

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

The best part: build the league phase yourself.

Value Pillar money per club depends on who else plays in the league stage. You can try out any hypothetical scenario and see how estimated prize money changes.

Click a club to advance it, and every club re-prices instantly. Losers cascade down their real UEFA drop-down paths, so all three competitions stay coherent.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

For each of the 237 teams you can find:

- Expected prize money across 10,000 simulated seasons
- Value Pillar, Starting Fee, expected bonuses from league stage points, positions and KO stage
- A guaranteed minimum, the floor across every outcome still reachable
- Every exit stage with its probability and its money

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

How much will your club earn from UEFA in 2026/27?

We launched our new product - Prize Money Lab 💰️ .

It includes every one of the 237 clubs in UEFA competitions, priced from Q1 to the final.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Last season 🇵🇱 Poland broke the competition record with 4 teams entering 🟢 UECL league stage.

Can they pull a crazy move and enter FIVE this year?

It's unlikely, but crazier things have happened in football.

To end up in 🟢 UECL league stage:

49% 🇵🇱 Jagiellonia
32% 🇵🇱 Gornik Zabrze
32% 🇵🇱 Rakow Czestochowa
11% 🇵🇱 Lech Poznan
10% 🇵🇱 GKS Katowice

👉 Full details on projected paths and seedings for all 237 teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇨🇿🇵🇱🇬🇷 are three main contenders for 10th place in 5y UEFA country ranking.

🇬🇷 Greece are currently lagging behind in points but are in the best position right now to enter 4 or 5 teams into league stages.

▪️ At least 3 clubs:
✅ 🇨🇿 Czechia
✅ 🇬🇷 Greece
68% 🇵🇱 Poland

▪️ At least 4 clubs:
91% 🇬🇷 Greece
50% 🇨🇿 Czechia
21% 🇵🇱 Poland

▪️ All 5 clubs:
38% 🇬🇷 Greece
5% 🇨🇿 Czechia
2% 🇵🇱 Poland

👉 Full details on projected paths and coefficient points for all teams and countries available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Top 2 nations in 2026/27 seasonal UEFA country ranking will earn an extra 🔵 UCL slot next year.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England are big favorites to win it once again.

🇪🇸 Spain's probability is hurt by Getafe's likely unseeded position in 🟢 UECL PO draw.

We still expect 🇪🇸 Getafe to qualify, but there is considerable risk there of facing a strong opponent, higher than that of 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇮🇹 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 who all have seeded sides in PO.

One of the key moments will be the PO draw on Monday, after which probabilities could potentially shift considerably.

Having a team in 🟢 UECL league stage has proven crucial for coefficient races due to a lot of "easy" points available there.

👉 Full details, what-if scenarios and probabilities for ALL nations and teams in UEFA coefficient races available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Tonight is a crucial night for 🇬🇷 AEK's chances to be seeded in 🔵 UCL PO draw (Monday, 12:00 CET).

If 🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb eliminates 🇨🇭 Thun, AEK will almost certainly be unseeded.

If 🇨🇭 Thun eliminates 🇭🇷 Dinamo Zagreb, AEK will switch to the seeded side

Seeded sides in the league path are already LOCKED 🔒.

👉 Full probabilities and seeding scenarios for all 237 teams available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Passing through Q2 and Q3 in the Main Path of 🟠 UEL qualifiers may be more difficult than getting through the PO round.

It is because the Main and Champions paths merge in PO round and 12/24 draw slots are taken by champions of mostly lower ranked leagues.

It is best visible by the fact that 🇮🇱 Maccabi TA and 🇧🇪 Anderlecht were UNSEEDED in Q3 draw with a coefficient of >30.000.

If they entered the PO draw with that same coefficient, they'd be easily seeded.

You can see a huge drop-off in coefficients on the seeded side after 🇦🇿 Qarabag's 42.750, who was the last seeded team in Q3.

👉 Full probabilities and seeding scenarios for all teams available in our Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇨🇭 Lugano are currently 2 spots above the projected seeding line in 🟢 UECL PO draw (assuming they don't get eliminated by 🇽🇰 Dukagjini in Q2).

📈 Every team with a ✅ in the visual below that wins their Q2 tie HELPS 🇨🇭 Lugano.

📉 Every team with a ✅ that loses their Q2 tie, HURTS 🇨🇭 Lugano.

To stay seeded, they can afford only one of the ⬛️ selected teams below that carry a ✅ to lose their tie.

For example, if 🇱🇻 Auda get eliminated by 🇷🇴 FCSB, this pushes Lugano one place down.

Ironically, 🇨🇭 St Gallen eliminating 🇵🇹 Benfica would HURT 🇨🇭 Lugano's chances of being seeded in PO!

Overall, Lugano's chances of being seeded are 81%.

👉 All seeding details and everything about UEFA club qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🟢 UECL PO seedings will be decided on Thursday, for the draw that follows on Monday at 14:00 CET.

Projected line is currently between 🇹🇷 Istanbul Başakşehir and 🇪🇸 Getafe, but it's possible it moves several places up or down.

🇷🇸 Partizan is currently at 98% to be seeded, so if the line does go up, it is unlikely it will go above them.

👉 All seeding details, who needs what, and everything about UEFA club qualifiers available in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Sabah 🇦🇿 qualifies for their first ever league/group stage participation in UEFA competitions!

Whether it will be in 🔵 UCL, 🟠 UEL or 🟢 UECL we'll find out over the next 4 weeks.