Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

☠️ Teams with the highest risk of experiencing ❌❌❌ triple elimination and missing out on league stage football entirely:

52% 🇬🇮 Lincoln Red Imps
50% Larne
35% 🇦🇱 Egnatia
33% 🇬🇪 Iberia
30% 🇵🇱 Gornik Zabrze
27% 🇱🇹 Kauno Žalgiris
18% 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Hearts
16% 🇫🇴 KI Klaksvik
...

📊 Chart shows the probability to reach the league stage, so the risk to miss out is = 100% - probability shown.

*The fact that someone has >50% chance of reaching league stages doesn't mean they will be enter our final league stage projections. Those projections look each round separately as a deterministic cascade 👉 assume Top 50% in each round to progress, and Bottom 50% to be eliminated.

🇵🇱 Gornik Zabrze is one example of that. They are currently an underdog in all of the rounds they could play, but overall have 70% that they'll pass at least one.

👉 Full details on projected paths and seedings for all 237 teams available in our 🕹️ Simulator

🚨 Updated daily in real time

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Following teams are already 100% they will be seeded in 🟠 UEL PO draw (happens before Q3 is played):

✅ 🇦🇹 Salzburg
✅ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Rangers
✅ 🇨🇿 Viktoria Plzen
100% 🇵🇱 Jagiellonia*

There are multiple teams that will be 100% seeded if they survive 🟠 UEL Q2 round:

🇵🇹 Benfica
🇦🇿 Qarabag
🇩🇰 Midtjylland
🇬🇷 PAOK
🇨🇾 Pafos
🇮🇱 Maccabi TA
🇧🇪 Anderlecht
🇭🇺 Ferencvaros
🇲🇩 Sheriff

*There is a theoretical scenario in which Jagiellonia could end up unseeded in UEL PO but it would require an extraordinary number of high coeff teams losing in UCL Q2 + Jaga drawing Ferencvaros/Twente + Twente winning. That series of scenarios happened exactly 0 times in tens of thousands sims we ran.

PO draw is before Q3 is played, so all teams that end up in 🟠 UEL Q3 (champions or main path) and 🔵 UCL Q3 (champions path only) will 100% participate in 🟠 UEL PO draw.

👉 Full details on seeding probabilities for all 237 teams available in our...

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Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Who said 3rd place matches are boring?

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Harry Kane 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 could have won the Golden Boot had he started this match.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

It's a tradition that 3rd place matches on 🇺🇸 US soil are 4-0 at half time.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Absolute cinema of the game!

England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 earn their first podium finish since 1966. 🥉

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Mbappé 🇫🇷 with two goals and one assist jumps firmly to the top of the ⚽ Golden Boot rankings!

To win the Boot 🇦🇷 Messi now needs:

1️⃣ a hattrick in the final OR
2️⃣ two goals + one assist OR
3️⃣ two goals in less than 55 mins on the pitch

To win the Golden Boot :
96% 🇫🇷 Mbappé
4% 🇦🇷 Messi

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇫🇷 Michael Olise ends the World Cup with a whopping seven assists, breaking 🇧🇷 Pele's World Cup record!

🇦🇷 Messi would need to get 3 assists in the final to overtake him.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Only 🇦🇷 v 🇪🇸 left to be played.

Winner of the final will get the 🏆 and appropriately the #1 place in official world ranking for July 2026.

💥 Live FIFA ranking (as of 19 July):

1️⃣ 🇦🇷 1970
2️⃣ 🇪🇸 1966
3️⃣ 🇫🇷 1949 🟰
4️⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 1923 (➕ 33.4)
5️⃣ 🇧🇷 1805
6️⃣ 🇲🇦 1804
7️⃣ 🇵🇹 1788
8️⃣ 🇧🇪 1778
9️⃣ 🇳🇱 1776
1⃣0⃣ 🇲🇽 1754
1⃣1⃣ 🇨🇴 1740
1⃣2⃣ 🇩🇪 1726
1⃣3⃣ 🇭🇷 1723
1⃣4⃣ 🇨🇭 1711
1⃣5⃣ 🇮🇹 1705

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Position map of Olise's 20 shots at this World Cup from Fotmob.

Remarkable how none of them finished in the net.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🏁 EURO 2028 qualifying pots will be determined by positions in UEFA Nations League 2026.

🌍 Projected pots:

Pot 1: 🇪🇸🇫🇷🇳🇱🇵🇹🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇳🇴🇩🇪🇧🇪🇩🇰🇭🇷🇮🇹🇬🇷
Pot 2: 🇷🇸🇹🇷🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇨🇿🇨🇭🇦🇹🇺🇦🇸🇪🇵🇱🇭🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇽🇰
Pot 3: 🇮🇪🇷🇴🇬🇪🇸🇮🇧🇦🇮🇱☘️🇲🇰🇸🇰🇦🇱🇮🇸🇲🇪
Pot 4: 🇫🇮🇧🇾🇦🇲🇧🇬🇰🇿🇱🇺🇨🇾🇫🇴🇱🇻🇪🇪🇲🇩🇸🇲
Pot 5: 🇦🇿🇲🇹🇱🇹🇦🇩🇬🇮🇱🇮 (Pot 5 locked 🔒)

✅ 12 group winners and 8 best runners-up qualify directly.

⏳ Remaining 4 runners-up and 4-9 UNL group winners that finished outside Top 2 in qualifying will go to Playoffs.

🏟️ Hosts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇮🇪 WILL participate in qualifiers, two automatic spots are reserved for them in case they don't qualify directly.

How many automatic spots they use will determine the number of UNL teams that enter the Playoffs.

👉 Full analysis of seeding probabilities for EURO 2028 in our 🕹️ Simulator

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

xG after 64 mins:

🇪🇸 0.34
🇦🇷 0.00

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Argentina 🇦🇷 had 0 shots in 90+ minutes of regulation time in the World Cup final.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Of the last 6 World Cup finals, France 🇫🇷 v 🇭🇷 Croatia (2018) is the only one decided in 90 minutes.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇪🇸 Spain once again hold the title of World and European champions simultaneously! 🏆 🏆

This was one of the most one-sided World Cup finals in history.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

🇪🇸 Spain's path to the World Cup title 🏆 :

🤝 0-0 v 🇨🇻 CPV
✅ 4-0 v 🇸🇦 KSA
✅ 1-0 v 🇺🇾 URU
✅ 3-0 v 🇦🇹 AUT
✅ 1-0 v 🇵🇹 POR
✅ 2-1 v 🇧🇪 BEL
✅ 2-0 v 🇫🇷 FRA
✅ 1-0 v 🇦🇷 ARG

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Luis de la Fuente's record since becoming head coach of 🇪🇸 Spain:

2023 🏆 UEFA Nations League
2024 🏆 UEFA EURO
2025 🥈 UEFA Nations League
2026 🏆 FIFA World Cup

He lost only 2 of his 49 matches as the coach of 🇪🇸.

Absolute masterclass.

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

Kylian Mbappé 🇫🇷 is the winner of the Golden Boot!

v 🇸🇳 ⚽⚽
v 🇮🇶 ⚽⚽
v 🇳🇴 🅰️ 🅰️
v 🇸🇪 ⚽⚽
v 🇵🇾 ⚽
v 🇲🇦 ⚽🅰️
v 🇪🇸 ➖
v 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ⚽⚽🅰️

Football Meets Data (Twitter/X)

For the first time since the reform of European cups in 2021 there will be no pre-draw groupings in 🔵 UCL Q3 champions path draw!