Я сейчас скачиваю его и перезалью здесь и тогда уже на Дзен.
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Media is too big
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Вчерашний стрим
00:00 - Возня со звуком
05:40 - Начало
06:30 - О коррекции
09:58 - 5 факторов давления на экономику Штатов
17:09 - Ситуация в Китае
21:30 - Заметка о потенциальной отрицательной ставке
24:25 - Вопрос о нефти и газе
25:15 - О недвижимости в Канаде и штатах
30:20 - Об агропромышленности, скотоводстве и производителях соевого мяса
31:42 - Об облигациях и загрузке оных в портфель
31:14 - Об акциях роста
38:20 - Возможен ли рост рынка в условиях рецессии?
42:10 - О криптовалюте
48:40 - О фармоклогии
49:50 - Что происходит с еврозоной?
54:39 - Евро/доллар
56:37 - Вопрос об отслеживании мировой ликвидности
57:43 - О REITs и инфляции
1:00:01 - О крипте
1:04:20 - О спекуляции
1:05:40 - О доверии к доллару
1:10:55 - Долгота инфляции
1:14:00 - Сокращение баланса ФРС
1:19:35 - О капитале труда
1:23:20 - О важности рубля
00:00 - Возня со звуком
05:40 - Начало
06:30 - О коррекции
09:58 - 5 факторов давления на экономику Штатов
17:09 - Ситуация в Китае
21:30 - Заметка о потенциальной отрицательной ставке
24:25 - Вопрос о нефти и газе
25:15 - О недвижимости в Канаде и штатах
30:20 - Об агропромышленности, скотоводстве и производителях соевого мяса
31:42 - Об облигациях и загрузке оных в портфель
31:14 - Об акциях роста
38:20 - Возможен ли рост рынка в условиях рецессии?
42:10 - О криптовалюте
48:40 - О фармоклогии
49:50 - Что происходит с еврозоной?
54:39 - Евро/доллар
56:37 - Вопрос об отслеживании мировой ликвидности
57:43 - О REITs и инфляции
1:00:01 - О крипте
1:04:20 - О спекуляции
1:05:40 - О доверии к доллару
1:10:55 - Долгота инфляции
1:14:00 - Сокращение баланса ФРС
1:19:35 - О капитале труда
1:23:20 - О важности рубля
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LCD Weekly Wrap 2022-05-19.pdf
1.7 MB
Если кому интересно почитать о событиях на кредитных рынках. Спреды растут, кол-во новых выпусков, особенно в мусорном сегменте сильно падает. Пока не критично ещё, но, если мы продолжил в таком же духе, что весьма вероятно, то тут нас ожидает стресс.
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Предвестником роста спредов в кредитном сегменте, может быть ужасная отчетность Walmart и Target. Вот сегодняшняя статья Джеффа, анализирующая причины таких плохих показателей.
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/05/20/despite_what_youre_told_this_has_never_been_inflation_833358.html
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/05/20/despite_what_youre_told_this_has_never_been_inflation_833358.html
RealClearMarkets
Despite What You're Told, This Has Never Been Inflation
These are the words never to be uttered. Not if you know what is good for you. They have nothing to do with national security. No secret formulas locked tightly away from prying eyes. A taboo imposed
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Друзья,видео было выложено этой ночью. Я не знаю почему так произошло. Но как есть 🤷♂️
ФРС скоро переобуется - обзор 29.05.2022
https://youtu.be/YtNQZn61als
ФРС скоро переобуется - обзор 29.05.2022
https://youtu.be/YtNQZn61als
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Заявления о состоянии американской экономики от филиалов ФРС ("бежевая книга"):
Boston
“While many contacts remained optimistic, an increasing number expected a recession by year's end.”
New York
“Consumer spending slowed noticeably in recent weeks.”
Philadelphia
“Contacts noted that rising prices for food and fuel appear to have lowered the frequency of customer visits and reduced the average spend per visit. Moreover, sales may be weaker after adjusting for inflation.”
Cleveland
“Most firms raised prices as they passed through higher costs of labor, materials, and energy to customers. Contacts generally reported that they had little difficulty passing through costs to customers. However, some consumer-facing firms observed that customers were starting to trim expenses because of higher food and gas prices. Retailers expressed concern that high inflation could weaken consumer spending in the near term, but hospitality contacts remained optimistic that activity would continue to increase going into the summer.”
Richmond
“One professional service firm said that their plans for hiring, and capital spending were put on hold because they saw their clients capping or cutting budgets out of caution. Additionally, a consultant was concerned that they might lose one of their major clients because that client was facing a contract renewal for electricity and might need to cut spending to offset increased costs of energy.”
Atlanta
“Margins largely remained at record highs for many firms as price increases were met with little resistance; however, several contacts noted a slight dampening of demand or consumers "trading down" to second tier products. District retailers reported some softening in unit sales and a shift in discretionary spending since the previous report. Contacts noted that some customers began foregoing discretionary spending to cover the rising costs of rent, food, and fuel. Though demand for luxury goods continued to hold up, demand for items such as home decor slowed among lower- and middle-income customers.”
Boston
“While many contacts remained optimistic, an increasing number expected a recession by year's end.”
New York
“Consumer spending slowed noticeably in recent weeks.”
Philadelphia
“Contacts noted that rising prices for food and fuel appear to have lowered the frequency of customer visits and reduced the average spend per visit. Moreover, sales may be weaker after adjusting for inflation.”
Cleveland
“Most firms raised prices as they passed through higher costs of labor, materials, and energy to customers. Contacts generally reported that they had little difficulty passing through costs to customers. However, some consumer-facing firms observed that customers were starting to trim expenses because of higher food and gas prices. Retailers expressed concern that high inflation could weaken consumer spending in the near term, but hospitality contacts remained optimistic that activity would continue to increase going into the summer.”
Richmond
“One professional service firm said that their plans for hiring, and capital spending were put on hold because they saw their clients capping or cutting budgets out of caution. Additionally, a consultant was concerned that they might lose one of their major clients because that client was facing a contract renewal for electricity and might need to cut spending to offset increased costs of energy.”
Atlanta
“Margins largely remained at record highs for many firms as price increases were met with little resistance; however, several contacts noted a slight dampening of demand or consumers "trading down" to second tier products. District retailers reported some softening in unit sales and a shift in discretionary spending since the previous report. Contacts noted that some customers began foregoing discretionary spending to cover the rising costs of rent, food, and fuel. Though demand for luxury goods continued to hold up, demand for items such as home decor slowed among lower- and middle-income customers.”
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Chicago
“Most contacts indicated that they were experiencing only limited pushback on price increases from customers, but some said they were seeing more resistance to higher prices than in previous reporting periods. There were reports of a shift in the mix of purchases from discretionary items toward essential goods. Moreover, a growing number of consumers were picking less expensive options when purchasing products. In addition, a regional food bank reported a considerable increase in demand. Among product lines, grocery sales increased modestly, but spending was flat on appliances and electronics and at discount stores. Spending on furniture and home furnishings fell.”
St. Louis
“Spending shifted from goods to services and became more sensitive to prices; retailers reported that credit card usage rose. Manufacturing firms reported that a backlog of orders should sustain production even as the rate of new orders declines due to higher prices. One luxury car dealership in Northern Mississippi said that they are starting to sell fewer large cars and more small, fuel-efficient cars as demand shifts due to rising gas prices.”
Minneapolis
“Individuals moving through the labor market were mainly looking for better pay. Some workers were considering taking second jobs to meet the higher cost of living but faced constraints with balancing existing responsibilities. Preliminary results from a survey of workers in South Dakota indicated that rising prices have significantly strained family budgets. Most said they were mainly experiencing pressure from fuel, grocery, and electricity prices. Several reported forgoing activities like eating out or traveling for leisure to reduce expenses. Overall, workers saw their cost of living increase. A worker in the finance sector said that "a 3 percent raise is not keeping up with the cost-of-living [...] We are definitely living more of a paycheck-to- paycheck lifestyle than a year ago." A construction industry job seeker shared that gas prices were further reducing his mobility and employment options.”
Kansas City
“Some restaurants reported taking advantage of digital menus to implement "real time pricing" on most items, but noted that customers have been unwilling to fully accept higher prices when dining out. Contacts at craft breweries noted that higher wheat costs may lead to losses as consumers substitute to lower cost options. Consumer spending continued to grow at a moderate pace in recent weeks, but several contacts noted shifts in spending habits. Sales of food in grocery stores grew faster than at restaurants, but contacts were uncertain if this was due to labor shortages at restaurants continuing to restrict operating hours.”
Dallas
San Francisco
“Retail sales continued to increase, although with some moderation. Consumer demand for food and energy products slowed down somewhat due to pricing pressures, and a few contacts observed that consumers are curbing their spending and focusing more on necessities, especially in lower-income households.”
“Most contacts indicated that they were experiencing only limited pushback on price increases from customers, but some said they were seeing more resistance to higher prices than in previous reporting periods. There were reports of a shift in the mix of purchases from discretionary items toward essential goods. Moreover, a growing number of consumers were picking less expensive options when purchasing products. In addition, a regional food bank reported a considerable increase in demand. Among product lines, grocery sales increased modestly, but spending was flat on appliances and electronics and at discount stores. Spending on furniture and home furnishings fell.”
St. Louis
“Spending shifted from goods to services and became more sensitive to prices; retailers reported that credit card usage rose. Manufacturing firms reported that a backlog of orders should sustain production even as the rate of new orders declines due to higher prices. One luxury car dealership in Northern Mississippi said that they are starting to sell fewer large cars and more small, fuel-efficient cars as demand shifts due to rising gas prices.”
Minneapolis
“Individuals moving through the labor market were mainly looking for better pay. Some workers were considering taking second jobs to meet the higher cost of living but faced constraints with balancing existing responsibilities. Preliminary results from a survey of workers in South Dakota indicated that rising prices have significantly strained family budgets. Most said they were mainly experiencing pressure from fuel, grocery, and electricity prices. Several reported forgoing activities like eating out or traveling for leisure to reduce expenses. Overall, workers saw their cost of living increase. A worker in the finance sector said that "a 3 percent raise is not keeping up with the cost-of-living [...] We are definitely living more of a paycheck-to- paycheck lifestyle than a year ago." A construction industry job seeker shared that gas prices were further reducing his mobility and employment options.”
Kansas City
“Some restaurants reported taking advantage of digital menus to implement "real time pricing" on most items, but noted that customers have been unwilling to fully accept higher prices when dining out. Contacts at craft breweries noted that higher wheat costs may lead to losses as consumers substitute to lower cost options. Consumer spending continued to grow at a moderate pace in recent weeks, but several contacts noted shifts in spending habits. Sales of food in grocery stores grew faster than at restaurants, but contacts were uncertain if this was due to labor shortages at restaurants continuing to restrict operating hours.”
Dallas
San Francisco
“Retail sales continued to increase, although with some moderation. Consumer demand for food and energy products slowed down somewhat due to pricing pressures, and a few contacts observed that consumers are curbing their spending and focusing more on necessities, especially in lower-income households.”
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Forwarded from СОЛОДИН LIVE
#интервью #Кубышкин #macro
💥 Почему ФРС может быть вынужден включить печатный станок уже в сентябре?
👉 Об этом и многом другом в интервью с Алексом Кубышкиным.
________
Александр Кубышкин - Выпускник Stockholm School of Economics (Швеция), Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), более 8 лет работал в банковской сфере (Leveraged Finance). Сооснователь 2-х технологических компаний. Основатель Enfilade Capital, инвестиционно-консультационной компании в Берлине, где живёт и ведёт свою трудовую деятельность.
ПРЕМЬЕРА УЖЕ В 18-00 МСК
👉 ССЫЛКА НА ВИДЕО
💥 Почему ФРС может быть вынужден включить печатный станок уже в сентябре?
👉 Об этом и многом другом в интервью с Алексом Кубышкиным.
________
Александр Кубышкин - Выпускник Stockholm School of Economics (Швеция), Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), более 8 лет работал в банковской сфере (Leveraged Finance). Сооснователь 2-х технологических компаний. Основатель Enfilade Capital, инвестиционно-консультационной компании в Берлине, где живёт и ведёт свою трудовую деятельность.
ПРЕМЬЕРА УЖЕ В 18-00 МСК
👉 ССЫЛКА НА ВИДЕО
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April Germany article .pdf
491.7 KB
Сейчас в чате интересная дискуссия про тему немецкой экономики и ее зависимости от газа. Вот примерно то, что я об этом думаю
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Всем привет, сегодня в 15:00 по Москве выйдет новое видео. Всем хорошего дня.
https://youtu.be/4qaYaQPP05U
https://youtu.be/4qaYaQPP05U
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Forwarded from Газпромбанк Инвестиции
📊 Тренды и перспективные отрасли для инвестирования
Экспорт нефти за пять месяцев 2022 года вырос. Минфин прогнозирует рост нефтегазовых доходов бюджета в 2022 году на 15,2% — до 10,4 трлн рублей. Инфляция в России замедлилась, а рубль укрепился.
Какие отрасли могут оказаться наиболее перспективными в такой ситуации и как может выглядеть рынок в ближайшем будущем, обсудим сегодня с Александром Кубышкиным, основателем инвестиционно-консультационной компании Enfilade Capital и YouTube-канала «ФинФак».
🎙 Подключайтесь к эфиру в 18:00.
Экспорт нефти за пять месяцев 2022 года вырос. Минфин прогнозирует рост нефтегазовых доходов бюджета в 2022 году на 15,2% — до 10,4 трлн рублей. Инфляция в России замедлилась, а рубль укрепился.
Какие отрасли могут оказаться наиболее перспективными в такой ситуации и как может выглядеть рынок в ближайшем будущем, обсудим сегодня с Александром Кубышкиным, основателем инвестиционно-консультационной компании Enfilade Capital и YouTube-канала «ФинФак».
🎙 Подключайтесь к эфиру в 18:00.
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