The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield’s Elliott Wave structure continues to favor another leg higher, with a potential Wave 4 pullback preceding a final Wave 5 toward 5.584%, while 4.688% remains structural support.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 767,000 barrels last week to 283 million barrels, the lowest level since 1982.

This marks the 28th consecutive weekly decline, with inventories down nearly -133 million barrels from their high.

US oil reserves remain near their lowest levels in history.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Iran says talks with the U.S. are “meaningless” amid deadlock.

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⚡️ JUST IN: S&P 500 closes +55 points higher, adding +$500 billion in market cap today.

The index is now just 0.5% away from a new record high.

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💼 AI Jobs Surge in US

AI-linked roles have added more than +750,000 jobs in the US since 2023, according to LinkedIn estimates.

Data annotators led with +282,000 positions, followed by data center jobs at +117,000 and AI engineers at +105,000. Together, these categories added +504,000 jobs.

AI-related roles had a median salary of ~$180,000, versus $80,000 across all jobs. The expansion of AI infrastructure, especially data centers, is driving labor demand and reshaping the US job market.

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When the Nasdaq is up 20% or more through the first three quarters of the year, that strength has historically marked powerful momentum thrusts.

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⚡️ JUST IN: S&P 500 futures rise to a record high, pushing the index’s market cap above $71 trillion.

Record highs are back.

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Since 1950, when both the first trading day and first five trading days of Q4 were positive, the S&P 500 finished the quarter higher in 29 of 32 instances.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The S&P 500 reaches a record $71.3 trillion, up +24% from its March 30th low.

The US stock market is now worth more than $82 trillion, about 7.5 times China and 28 times Germany. Asset owners are winning.

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The U.S. Dollar Index is hitting new 52-week highs and tracking the same path as during Trump’s first term.

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⚡️ JUST IN: S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record, adding +$13.5 trillion in market cap since March 30th.

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⚡️ JUST IN: SpaceX, $SPCX, is in talks to raise $40 billion in debt to buy Nvidia chips amid “insatiable demand” from AI developers, Bloomberg reports.

The company seeks about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Bitcoin falls nearly -$2,000 in 20 minutes as $400 million worth of levered longs are liquidated in under one hour.

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Michael Burry says the US stock market is in a “denial phase” usually lasting 6-9 months, as in the 2000 and 2008 bubbles.

The investor predicted 58 of the last 2 crashes, has shorted the US market since birth, and even guessed several times.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Robinhood adds $25 million in Bitcoin to its balance sheet, its first disclosed proprietary $BTC holding, as it expands deeper into crypto.

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📈 Market Concentration Rises

Diversification is dying.

For every $1 invested in the S&P 500, its 10 largest stocks get about 41 cents: Nvidia ($NVDA) 8 cents, Apple ($AAPL) 7 cents, Microsoft ($MSFT) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) 6 cents each, and Amazon ($AMZN) 4 cents.

Broadcom, Meta, Tesla, Micron and AMD add 10 cents. The top 10 stocks represent almost 2x the allocation of 402 other companies, which account for 23 cents. Big Tech effectively is the market.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Iranian official says Iran “will never give up its right to enrich Uranium” and there are “no talks” with the US over its nuclear program.

The official tells Reuters that US proposals are “at odds with Iran’s demands.” Brent crude oil rises above $102/barrel on the news.

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⚡️ JUST IN: US 10Y Note Yield rises above 5.35% for the first time in 24 years.

The total move since the pre-Iran War low is now +143 basis points. Mortgage rates are at fresh 3-year highs.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Nasdaq 100 extends losses to -200 points as US Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2002 and oil prices rise.

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Ray Dalio warned that an inevitable US government debt crisis will erupt within three years.

US government debt already exceeds $40.2 trillion, while authorities will spend at least $1.5 trillion servicing it and paying interest this year.

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