🌍 GLOBAL CUES
* Israel–Hezbollah tensions rising again despite ceasefire
* Drone attacks & airstrikes continue → conflict still active
* US–Iran talks remain stalled → no clear breakthrough
* Iran proposes Hormuz reopening in exchange for sanctions relief
* Strait of Hormuz crisis continues → major oil supply risk
* Israeli strikes expanding into Lebanon → escalation risk increasing
* UAE plans to exit OPEC → potential shift in oil market dynamics
* Israel–Hezbollah tensions rising again despite ceasefire
* Drone attacks & airstrikes continue → conflict still active
* US–Iran talks remain stalled → no clear breakthrough
* Iran proposes Hormuz reopening in exchange for sanctions relief
* Strait of Hormuz crisis continues → major oil supply risk
* Israeli strikes expanding into Lebanon → escalation risk increasing
* UAE plans to exit OPEC → potential shift in oil market dynamics
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🌍 GLOBAL CUES
* US–Iran conflict still ongoing → no resolution in talks
* Trump urges Iran to “give up” while Iran rejects pressure
* Strait of Hormuz crisis continues → major global oil supply disruption
* Shipping activity extremely low → trade impact rising
* Oil prices surging due to prolonged blockade & supply fears
* Energy markets highly sensitive to war developments
* Iran may face oil storage crisis → possible production cuts
* Blockade limiting exports significantly
* Israel–Lebanon tensions ongoing despite ceasefire
* Regional conflict risk still elevated
* War timeline extending → concerns over long-term conflict
* Political pressure rising in US over strategy
* US–Iran conflict still ongoing → no resolution in talks
* Trump urges Iran to “give up” while Iran rejects pressure
* Strait of Hormuz crisis continues → major global oil supply disruption
* Shipping activity extremely low → trade impact rising
* Oil prices surging due to prolonged blockade & supply fears
* Energy markets highly sensitive to war developments
* Iran may face oil storage crisis → possible production cuts
* Blockade limiting exports significantly
* Israel–Lebanon tensions ongoing despite ceasefire
* Regional conflict risk still elevated
* War timeline extending → concerns over long-term conflict
* Political pressure rising in US over strategy
📊 USDJPY – NEWS BREAKDOWN
* USDJPY tumbled sharply (~100+ pips in minutes and 500+ Pips in 4 hour) after intervention warning
* Move likely driven by:
* 🇯🇵 Japan officials signaling action
* Possible “rate check” / verbal intervention
* Yen surged strongly as markets feared actual BOJ intervention
* Pair dropped from ~160+ zone → sharp downside move
* Officials warned “decisive action is near” → triggered panic closing of shorts
* Market reaction:
* ⚡️ High volatility spike
* 💥 Short covering amplified the move
* 📉 USDJPY quickly reversed from highs
* USDJPY tumbled sharply (~100+ pips in minutes and 500+ Pips in 4 hour) after intervention warning
* Move likely driven by:
* 🇯🇵 Japan officials signaling action
* Possible “rate check” / verbal intervention
* Yen surged strongly as markets feared actual BOJ intervention
* Pair dropped from ~160+ zone → sharp downside move
* Officials warned “decisive action is near” → triggered panic closing of shorts
* Market reaction:
* ⚡️ High volatility spike
* 💥 Short covering amplified the move
* 📉 USDJPY quickly reversed from highs
Weekly Trading Report (27 APR - 01 MAY).pdf
20.3 MB
Markets remained highly volatile due to geopolitical factors, but we maintained consistency through disciplined execution and proper risk management.
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🌍 GLOBAL CUES
* US launching naval mission to escort ships in Hormuz
* Iran warns move could violate ceasefire
* Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked
* Major disruption to global oil & shipping
* Oil prices holding strong despite US action
* Markets still nervous → no real relief
* OPEC+ announces minor production increase
* Move seen as symbolic amid supply crisis
* US pushing to free stranded ships using force if needed
* No breakthrough in war → conflict continues
* Oil prices remain elevated due to uncertainty
* US launching naval mission to escort ships in Hormuz
* Iran warns move could violate ceasefire
* Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked
* Major disruption to global oil & shipping
* Oil prices holding strong despite US action
* Markets still nervous → no real relief
* OPEC+ announces minor production increase
* Move seen as symbolic amid supply crisis
* US pushing to free stranded ships using force if needed
* No breakthrough in war → conflict continues
* Oil prices remain elevated due to uncertainty
📊 GBPUSD – 1H Analysis
🔍 Market Structure
* Strong bullish move → now consolidating
* Structure still bullish (higher low intact)
* Currently in pullback / sideways phase
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 1.3620 – 1.3640
* Current Price: ~1.3589
* Support: 1.3580
* Major Support: 1.3540
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Rejection from 1.3640 highs
* Price holding above 1.3580 support
* Consolidation → possible continuation setup
🔍 Market Structure
* Strong bullish move → now consolidating
* Structure still bullish (higher low intact)
* Currently in pullback / sideways phase
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 1.3620 – 1.3640
* Current Price: ~1.3589
* Support: 1.3580
* Major Support: 1.3540
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Rejection from 1.3640 highs
* Price holding above 1.3580 support
* Consolidation → possible continuation setup
📊 USDJPY – 1H Analysis
🔍 Market Structure
* Sharp bearish reversal after intervention-style drop
* Structure shifted → bearish (LH forming)
* Now in range / consolidation after dump
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 157.20 – 157.70
* Current Price: ~156.80
* Support: 156.20
* Major Support: 155.70
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Massive impulsive sell-off → policy-driven move
* Price stabilizing in 156–157 range
* Weak recovery → buyers not strong yet
🔍 Market Structure
* Sharp bearish reversal after intervention-style drop
* Structure shifted → bearish (LH forming)
* Now in range / consolidation after dump
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 157.20 – 157.70
* Current Price: ~156.80
* Support: 156.20
* Major Support: 155.70
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Massive impulsive sell-off → policy-driven move
* Price stabilizing in 156–157 range
* Weak recovery → buyers not strong yet
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📊 GLOBAL CUES
* USD strength supported by risk-off sentiment (US–Iran tensions)
* Yen volatility remains high → intervention still dominating USDJPY
* Japan continues warnings against FX speculation → intervention risk active
* Traders cautious → expecting sudden moves in JPY pairs
* Oil prices rising → impacting CAD, emerging currencies
* Commodity currencies under pressure due to global uncertainty
* GBP & EUR showing mixed moves → reacting to USD strength + macro data
* Upcoming economic events remain key driver
* USD strength supported by risk-off sentiment (US–Iran tensions)
* Yen volatility remains high → intervention still dominating USDJPY
* Japan continues warnings against FX speculation → intervention risk active
* Traders cautious → expecting sudden moves in JPY pairs
* Oil prices rising → impacting CAD, emerging currencies
* Commodity currencies under pressure due to global uncertainty
* GBP & EUR showing mixed moves → reacting to USD strength + macro data
* Upcoming economic events remain key driver
📊 AUDCAD – 1H Analysis
🔍 Market Structure
* Clear shift → bearish structure (LH + LL)
* Continuous rejection from 0.9790 supply
* Sellers in control → downtrend forming
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 0.9765 – 0.9790
* Current Price: ~0.9737
* Support: 0.9730
* Major Support: 0.9700
📉 Current Price Behaviour
* Strong rejection from highs → impulsive bearish move
* Price now testing 0.9730 demand
* Weak bounce → no strong buyers yet
🔍 Market Structure
* Clear shift → bearish structure (LH + LL)
* Continuous rejection from 0.9790 supply
* Sellers in control → downtrend forming
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 0.9765 – 0.9790
* Current Price: ~0.9737
* Support: 0.9730
* Major Support: 0.9700
📉 Current Price Behaviour
* Strong rejection from highs → impulsive bearish move
* Price now testing 0.9730 demand
* Weak bounce → no strong buyers yet
Gold prices are rising as tensions in the Middle East begin to ease. This follows an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to temporarily pause a plan aimed at providing safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing immediate geopolitical risks. According to analyst Vivek Dhar, gold prices have generally moved opposite to Middle East tensions since peaking earlier this year, but the current rise is being supported by other factors. These include growing hopes for a ceasefire, expectations of future interest rate cuts as high energy prices slow global economic growth, and concerns about central bank independence. As a result, gold remains strong, with spot prices up about 1.5% and trading near $4,625 per ounce.
📊 GBPUSD – 1H Analysis
🔍 Market Structure
* Market recovering after bearish correction
* Short-term structure turning bullish again
* Buyers pushing price back toward resistance
📌 Key Levels
* Current Price: ~1.3588
* Resistance: 1.3590 – 1.3610
* Major Resistance: 1.3625 – 1.3660
* Support: 1.3555
* Major Support: 1.3540
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Strong bullish recovery from 1.3530 zone
* Price now testing major resistance
* Momentum slowing near supply → possible reaction area
🔍 Market Structure
* Market recovering after bearish correction
* Short-term structure turning bullish again
* Buyers pushing price back toward resistance
📌 Key Levels
* Current Price: ~1.3588
* Resistance: 1.3590 – 1.3610
* Major Resistance: 1.3625 – 1.3660
* Support: 1.3555
* Major Support: 1.3540
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Strong bullish recovery from 1.3530 zone
* Price now testing major resistance
* Momentum slowing near supply → possible reaction area
📊 GBPUSD – 1H Analysis
🔍 Market Structure
* Market remains bullish overall
* Recent rally losing momentum near resistance
* Price now moving into consolidation phase
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 1.3600 – 1.3625
* Current Price: ~1.3594
* Support: 1.3580
* Major Support: 1.3540
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Strong rejection from 1.3630 highs
* Price holding around 1.3590 support zone
* Momentum slowing → breakout or pullback likely next
🔍 Market Structure
* Market remains bullish overall
* Recent rally losing momentum near resistance
* Price now moving into consolidation phase
📌 Key Levels
* Resistance: 1.3600 – 1.3625
* Current Price: ~1.3594
* Support: 1.3580
* Major Support: 1.3540
📉 Current Price Behavior
* Strong rejection from 1.3630 highs
* Price holding around 1.3590 support zone
* Momentum slowing → breakout or pullback likely next
🌍 GLOBAL CUES
* US & Iran exchanged fire again in the Strait of Hormuz despite ceasefire claims
* Missile & drone attacks targeting US naval vessels increased tensions
* Iran accusing US of violating ceasefire after tanker strikes
* UAE intercepted Iranian missiles & drones amid regional escalation
* Markets watching possible 30-day ceasefire proposal between US & Iran
* Hormuz reopening talks giving temporary relief hopes
* Strait of Hormuz still major geopolitical flashpoint
* US & Iran exchanged fire again in the Strait of Hormuz despite ceasefire claims
* Missile & drone attacks targeting US naval vessels increased tensions
* Iran accusing US of violating ceasefire after tanker strikes
* UAE intercepted Iranian missiles & drones amid regional escalation
* Markets watching possible 30-day ceasefire proposal between US & Iran
* Hormuz reopening talks giving temporary relief hopes
* Strait of Hormuz still major geopolitical flashpoint