💎 Fed's Unyielding Grip: The overshadowing effect of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and persistent inflationary expectations continues to anchor the U.S. Dollar in a position of absolute strength, preventing cheaper oil from relieving pressure on broader asset classes.

💎 The Breakdown of the Oil-Equity Correlation: Contrary to traditional market theory, the sell-off in energy has failed to act as a catalyst for Wall Street. The consensus that interest rates will remain "higher for longer" keeps sentiment highly cautious.

💎 Reality Check in the AI Sector: The initial euphoria surrounding Artificial Intelligence is cooling down. Investors are now questioning the sustainable monetization of tech giants, triggering a wave of tactical profit-taking.

💎 Liquidity Drain via Mega IPOs: The influx of massive new public listings is absorbing significant amounts of active market liquidity, effectively capping the near-term upside potential of major equity indices.

🟡 Lower energy prices are expected to have a positive impact on inflation.
🟡 More clarity is likely after fresh data become available ahead of the July meeting.
🟡 It is still uncertain how much inflationary pressure remains in the pipeline.
🟡 Europe’s long-term structural growth outlook continues to be relatively weak.

🟡 All eyes are on Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Sintra conference. A hawkish tone could provide fresh support for the U.S. dollar.

🟡 Today’s ADP Employment Report and ISM Manufacturing PMI are expected to play a key role in shaping the dollar’s short-term direction.

🟡 The European Central Bank is widely expected to maintain its hawkish stance, with no clear signal of rate cuts for now.

🟡 The review of the USMCA trade agreement could introduce fresh uncertainty for the Canadian dollar, potentially pushing USD/CAD toward higher levels.

🟡 Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Sintra Forum

🟡 Further updates on U.S.-Iran negotiations

🟡 Market positioning ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report