💬 Today’s Federal Reserve meeting is the key test for assessing the durability of the US dollar’s strength, with markets looking for signals about the likelihood of further rate hikes

💬 The decline in oil prices following the US–Iran agreement has increased downside risks for the dollar, however the market is still pricing in around 21 basis points of additional rate hikes by year-end

💬 EUR/USD is consolidating within the 1.1600–1.1650 range and remains in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed’s signals

💬 UK inflation came in below expectations, which could support further strength in EUR/GBP against the British pound

➡️ The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged while maintaining a relatively hawkish tone through its dot plot projections. This reinforced its commitment to fighting inflation and provided support for the U.S. dollar. However, markets are still not pricing in a broad new rate-hiking cycle.

➡️ The U.S. Dollar Index remains near its highest levels of the past year, but easing inflationary pressures from lower energy prices and improved global risk sentiment have limited the potential for a stronger breakout.

➡️ Attention is now shifting toward the European Central Bank, with many traders closely watching the 1.14–1.15 zone as a key support area for EUR/USD during the summer months.

➡️ The Bank of England and Norges Bank are in focus today. While Norges Bank still carries the risk of a hawkish surprise, the Bank of England is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and avoid further tightening for now.

💎 Fed's Unyielding Grip: The overshadowing effect of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and persistent inflationary expectations continues to anchor the U.S. Dollar in a position of absolute strength, preventing cheaper oil from relieving pressure on broader asset classes.

💎 The Breakdown of the Oil-Equity Correlation: Contrary to traditional market theory, the sell-off in energy has failed to act as a catalyst for Wall Street. The consensus that interest rates will remain "higher for longer" keeps sentiment highly cautious.

💎 Reality Check in the AI Sector: The initial euphoria surrounding Artificial Intelligence is cooling down. Investors are now questioning the sustainable monetization of tech giants, triggering a wave of tactical profit-taking.

💎 Liquidity Drain via Mega IPOs: The influx of massive new public listings is absorbing significant amounts of active market liquidity, effectively capping the near-term upside potential of major equity indices.