💢 JPMorgan Warning:
🕓The Countdown to a Potential Oil Price Shock Has Begun

📰 According to a recent JPMorgan report, global oil inventories have declined from 8.45 billion barrels to 7.9 billion barrels by the end of May. The bank projects that stockpiles could fall further to around 7.5 billion barrels by late July.

⚠️ Analysts warn that unless additional supply enters the market, global inventories may approach critically low operational levels.

📊 Such a scenario could tighten market conditions significantly, increasing upward pressure on oil prices in the months ah

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💲 Heavy Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs have experienced capital outflows for the fourth consecutive week.

📉 Around $1.7 billion was withdrawn from these funds in the past week alone, marking the largest weekly outflow in the past year.

📊 Some institutional and large-scale investors have chosen to reduce their risk exposure and step back from the market for now, waiting for greater clarity on economic conditions and upcoming Federal Reserve decisions.

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🇺🇸 Goldman Sachs No Longer Expects Fed Rate Cuts in 2026

🟢 Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook following last week's stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report and now expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.

🟢 The investment bank had already pushed back its forecast for the first rate cut from September to December 2026 last month. It now expects the first rate reduction to occur in June 2027.

🟢 In its latest report, Goldman Sachs stated:

"Given the continued strength of the U.S. labor market, we are shifting our final two projected rate cuts to June and December 2027. Labor market conditions have remained stronger than expected, and we now anticipate the unemployment rate to stay below our previous forecasts."

🟢 The revision highlights how the resilience of the U.S. economy and the strength of the labor market continue to reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to begin an easing cycle.

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➡️ Tim Clark, President of Emirates Airline, said he expects oil prices to gradually return to the mid-$60s to low-$70s per barrel over time.

➡️ He noted that Emirates is unlikely to reduce ticket prices, as airfares remain closely tied to fuel costs.

➡️ Clark also revealed that demand for premium travel has weakened significantly, with First Class seat occupancy falling to roughly half of its normal pre-Iran-war levels.


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🆕 Economic Calendar | June 10, 2026

Today's key events:

🇺🇸 CPI Data
🇨🇦 BOC Rate Decision
🇨🇦 BOC Press Conference

Expect higher volatility across USD and CAD pairs.

⭐ All times are based on Istanbul Time.


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🟢 Striking a balance in the global economy requires action from both East and West, according to EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis

🟢 He pointed out a dual responsibility for the world's superpower economies: while the United States must focus on increasing its savings, China needs to pivot toward becoming a major engine for global consumer spending


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🌎 Global Market Macro Update

🟢SpaceX (SPCX) shares have breached the $180 mark on the Hyperliquid platform.

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🇬🇧 Reuters Poll: Bank of England Likely to Hold Rates at 3.75%

➡️ According to the latest Reuters poll, the median forecast indicates that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% through the end of the year.

➡️ Out of the economists surveyed, 25 expect the central bank to deliver at least one more 25-basis-point rate hike, while six anticipate a single rate cut.

➡️ The poll also reveals that UK inflation is projected to average 3.3%, against a backdrop of a weak and subdued economic growth outlook.

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📣 Elon Musk: Becoming a Quadrillionaire Isn’t Impossible

A statistics-focused account on X posted that Elon Musk would need an additional $998.9 trillion to become the world’s first quadrillionaire.

Responding to the post, Elon Musk said:

🪐 “It’s not impossible, but it would definitely require factories on the Moon and Mars.”

🪐 “By that point, I don’t think the dollar will still be used as the primary unit of value.”

🪐 “Instead, mass (physical resources) and energy will likely become the dominant measures of wealth.”

The comment reflects Musk’s long-term vision of a space-based economy, where resource extraction and energy production beyond Earth could reshape the global financial system.


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✅ Senior U.S. Official: The United States Has Signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran

➡️ President Trump and Vice President Vance have signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which has also been signed by the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament.

➡️ The agreement includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

➡️ The reopening process is expected to take time, as naval mines in the area must first be cleared.

➡️ The agreement is designed to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the near term and that U.S. sanctions on Iran are removed.

➡️ Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to increase over the next one to two weeks, with shipping activity already showing a notable rise.

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If you follow the 1% risk rule, moderate leverage is often enough.


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📆 What’s the market watching today?

➡️ Inflation data
➡️ Interest rate decisions
➡️ Major economic events

These are the key drivers that can create significant market volatility

Professional traders don’t enter the market blindly. Before opening any position, they check the economic calendar and prepare for potential market-moving events

📈 Check the economic calendar before you trade

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🇯🇵 Japan Hits the Brakes on Liquidity Again

The Bank of Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 1% the highest level in 31 years

Why does this matter for crypto?

In each of the previous four BOJ rate hikes, Bitcoin experienced corrections of roughly 20% to 30%. Higher interest rates tend to reduce investors' appetite for risk and tighten liquidity conditions across financial markets

However, this cycle may be different

The market is now supported by spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing institutional demand, factors that were not present in previous tightening cycles

🔎 That said, the Federal Reserve still plays a much larger role than the BOJ in shaping the broader direction of global markets. Even so, Japan's latest rate hike could have a noticeable impact on risk assets in the short to medium term

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🆕According to the latest survey by the World Gold Council, conducted among 74 central banks, nearly 45% of central banks stated that they plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months the highest level ever recorded. This figure has more than doubled compared to 2020 and marks the third consecutive year of growth.

🔴The trend is even more pronounced among emerging economies, where approximately 53% of central banks intend to purchase additional gold. Furthermore, 89% of central banks worldwide believe that global central bank gold reserves will continue to increase over the coming year.

🔴What makes this particularly noteworthy is that these purchases are taking place during periods when the market is under selling pressure and many short-term investors remain uncertain about gold’s outlook. Market history has repeatedly shown that sharp corrections and capital outflows from gold funds do not necessarily signal the end of a bullish trend. In many cases, they have instead created opportunities for large institutional buyers to accumulate positions.

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🆕 Why Are Forex Traders Watching Today’s Federal Reserve Meeting So Closely?

⚠️Daily Forex Sentiment Analysis | June 17

In brief

💬 Today’s Federal Reserve meeting is the key test for assessing the durability of the US dollar’s strength, with markets looking for signals about the likelihood of further rate hikes

💬 The decline in oil prices following the US–Iran agreement has increased downside risks for the dollar, however the market is still pricing in around 21 basis points of additional rate hikes by year-end

💬 EUR/USD is consolidating within the 1.1600–1.1650 range and remains in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Fed’s signals

💬 UK inflation came in below expectations, which could support further strength in EUR/GBP against the British pound

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