Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 61.6% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (5.5%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (52.8%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (58.5%)

AI: No changes.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.2% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (5.5%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (54.6%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (58.5%)

AI: Odds edge up after Waller's dovish comments; uptrend continues.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.6% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (6.7%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (54.1%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (59.1%)

AI: No changes.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.8% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓 July: ≥ 25 bps cut (6.0%)
🗓 September: ≥ 25 bps cut (53.9%)
🗓 October: ≥ 25 bps cut (58.5%)

AI: No changes

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.9% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (6.6%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (54.8%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (59.6%)

AI: Today: 62.9% ≥2 cuts; odds up on tariff threats.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.6% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (5.7%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (48.1%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (59.9%)

AI: September cut odds fell amid hawkish Fed remarks, resilient data.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 54.6% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (3.4%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (45.0%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (59.2%)

AI: Today: 54.6%, 3.4%, 45.0%, 59.2%; inflation rise dampens cuts.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 58.8% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (3.6%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (46.0%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (60.1%)

AI: Probabilities up again; Trump-Powell firing talk fuels weekly uptrend.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.4% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.0%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (50.3%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (57.4%)

AI: Probabilities climbed on Waller's dovish speech; weekly uptrend continues.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.4% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.0%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (50.4%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (55.3%)

AI: October cut odds fell after hawkish Fed inflation warnings.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.4% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.3%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (49.5%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (55.3%)

AI: No changes.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.3% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.4%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (52.7%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (55.1%)

AI: Dovish Fed talk lifts September cut odds, weekly trend upward.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.4% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.4%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (56.0%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (55.1%)

AI: September cut odds rose amid weak data, dovish Fed talk.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 62.0% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (3.2%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (56.9%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (52.9%)

AI: Slightly lower cut odds; loose financial conditions dampen easing.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 61.9% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (3.5%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (57.3%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (52.6%)

AI: No changes.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 59.2% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.7%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (56.8%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (53.1%)

AI: Solid jobs data trimmed cut odds; weekly decline continues.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 58.4% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.6%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (55.5%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (52.7%)

AI: No changes.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 57.9% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (4.4%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (61.3%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (53.2%)

AI: September cut odds rose; consumer confidence dip boosted dovish bets.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 57.1% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (2.5%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (59.5%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (53.3%)

AI: Probabilities dip; hawkish Fed stance after elevated inflation, weekly downtrend.

Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
🔢 ≥ 2 cuts: 56.7% probability

Upcoming Fed Decisions
🗓️ July: ≥ 25 bps cut (2.5%)
🗓️ September: ≥ 25 bps cut (61.6%)
🗓️ October: ≥ 25 bps cut (53.6%)

AI: Weekly uptrend continues: ‘Goldilocks’ economy lifts September cut odds.

• Powell: We've made no decisions about September, we don't do that in advance - [TF]