😎 $6,000,000,000,000

With the Fed lowering interest rates, this money will flow into risky assets. That's why I talk so much about the key rate.

Take a look at the chart: the bond market turnover reached a record $6 trillion by the end of last year. Investors prefer to earn 5% risk-free rather than risking it in the stock or crypto markets.

Lowering rates will make holding cash a much less attractive alternative to investing in the markets.

According to a BlackRock report, the average cash yield of 4.5-5% significantly lags behind other assets, including Bitcoin. And this is before the rate cuts. The company writes:

In 2024, clients should allocate funds to innovative assets that can provide decent returns.

Reading between the lines:

By the way, we recently launched an ETF, so now you know where to invest your money.

Imagine the market capitalization by the end of 2024 if such a volume comes from the bond market alone.

🟢 Good Morning Everyone!

Let's start the workweek with an update on the market situation:

🟣 $BTC - $68,750. $ETH - $3,920. $BNB - $603.2;

🟣 Bitcoin dominance has fallen below 54%, hitting a monthly low;

🟣 Argentina and El Salvador are negotiating over Bitcoin - the countries plan to "create an alliance where $BTC will play a key role."

🟣 The meme coin sector is showing the best results. $FLOKI +20%, $PEPE +12%. $PEPE has already surpassed Polygon and Uniswap in market capitalization, ranking 18th on CoinMarketCap.

The technical picture for $BTC suggests continued growth. The coin has held above the descending trendline on the daily chart and is trading above the 50MA. In the near future, I expect a recovery above $70,000. Additionally, if the trend of falling dominance continues, we will see excellent dynamics for altcoins this week.

🔵 As always, I continue to look for entry points in the spot market. As soon as I find a good setup, I'll share it with you immediately.

🟢 $AXS - Ready to ride the bullish wave

For over a month, the coin has been in a downtrend. It has now broken through the trendline and consolidated above it.

🔴 Within the triangle, with the upper boundary being the trendline and the lower boundary being the HVN zone of $6.70 - $6.40, a large player has been actively entering $AXS. Morover, most of the coins were transferred to cold wallets (long-term storage).

Judging by the accumulation volumes, the nearest resistance at $8.22 is unlikely to hold in the near future. If this is the case, we might see a local 5-wave rising structure.

🟣 I bought $AXS at the current price ($7.63) and will add the same amount in case of $7.13 retest. The expected trajectory is marked on the chart.

🟢 A decrease in $BTC dominance - what does it mean

Bitcoin dominance is one of the key metrics I closely monitor. When this indicator is rising, it signifies money flowing from altcoins into $BTC, and vice versa. It's a highly reliable market oscillator.

🟣 After reaching a two-year high around 55.1%, $BTC dominance has started a correction and already exited the uptrend. If the correction extends toward the 51.5 - 50% range, altcoins are likely to experience powerful pumps, as was the case at the end of last year.

Supporting this are not only the technical dominance patterns but also the rising interest of large players. Since the adoption of the Ethereum ETF, the inflow of top-50 altcoins into wallets with a balance of more than 10 $BTC has doubled.

🔵 I'm confident that in the next 2-3 months, altcoins will deliver significant growth and substantial profits. That's why I continue to stack up my wallet and primarily focus on alts.

⚫️ $ZK - Poised for explosive growth

One of the recently launched coins with the potential to break into the top 50 on CMC during the upcoming altseason.

🟢 The project boasts an impressive list of investors and holds the record for the amount of funds raised during funding rounds. It addresses Ethereum's main issue - scalability.

On strong volumes, $ZK has broken out of a month-long accumulation range and has already consolidated above it. Over the next few months, I expect it to reach new ATH.

🔴 I’ve started building a medium-term position in $ZK within the $1.41 - $1.21 range. The expected price trajectory is marked on the chart.

🔵 Will the crypto market cap reach $3T soon

Despite the market correction, the capitalization is consolidating above the upper limit of the ascending channel at the $2.1T, showing the sustainability of the trend.

🟢 On the weekly chart, we see a golden cross as the 50SMA crossed over the 100SMA. The last time such a golden cross appeared on the capitalization chart was in Jan 2020, coinciding with an increase in the market cap by over 900%.

What does it mean for the market?

I believe current correction might transform into another accumulation period for $BTC with institutionals continuing to load up ahead of bull run, with increased interest towards $ETH and altcoins.

🟣 In such conditions, the market cap is likely to continue growing, and we might witness a total cap surpassing $3 trillion this summer.

🟢 $BNB - Massive gains ahead

Over the past few months, $BNB has shown some of the best performance among top altcoins. The technical outlook indicates complete buyer dominance.

👨‍💻 During the recent market correction, many altcoins lost over 60%. Meanwhile, $BNB only retraced 20% and held above the 50-day MA, showcasing a trend strength that even $BTC doesn't match.

In the medium term, I expect $BNB to continue its growth.

💡 The 50-day MA acts as strong support. Any correction to this level should be seen as an opportunity to add to positions. The next target is $730.

🔴 #ENA - A prime candidate for high returns

After an initial surge, #ENA entered a correction phase, forming a descending structure.

🔵 On significant volume, buyers managed to break through the upper boundary of this structure and consolidate above it. The price then retested the channel and bounced back, indicating that this level now serves as strong support. I believe the price is unlikely to drop below this level in the near future.

Not only is the technicals, the fundamental picture for #ENA looks promising as well. The development company continues to receive support from funds, and the daily active wallets just reached an all-time high.

I see #ENA as a potential leader in the upcoming rally.

🟢 I’ve started building a medium-term position in #ENA within the $0.89 - $0.82 range. The expected price trajectory is marked on the chart.

🟢 Safe Trading - understanding the core principles

As you may have noticed, I mosly trade spot. A common DM question - 'Why no futures signals?'. Another popular one - 'Which exchange do you trade on?'.

Today, I'll answer these, especially since they're interconnected. To make it clear - I operate solely on decentralized exchanges (DEX). Couple of key reasons:

◼ Leverage benefits exchanges, not traders. It's no secret that Binance sells data on its clients' open positions to market makers. Armed with all the info about you, they trade against your money.

💁🏻 Ever play poker with someone who sees all your cards?

Constant manipulations with hundreds of millions $ liquidated is the result.

◼ Not your keys, not your crypto. On CEX, you're trusting a third party with your assets. There's no guarantee (and I'm saying this from personal experience) - it can go bankrupt, your funds could be blocked, and withdrawals might be suspended at the worst possible time.

When I'm trading, my money doesn't even leave my ledger, so I'm always in control. No passport pics or income statements are needed for withdrawals.

🔵 While I can't pinpoint the best DEX, when choosing, I prioritize my current needs - platforms like 1inch, Uniswap, and PancakeSwap suit diverse trading requirements and offer different functions.

🟣 #ARB - might replicate Solana rally of 2021

This month, #ARB is getting ready to unlock tokens for the investor team. To secure the best exit liquidity for big players, MM will likely initiate a price acceleration.

We've seen a similar scenario several weeks before Solana's unlocks in 2021, with #SOL peaking at around $260. Post-unlocks, a bearish rally begun. Identical price reactions were observed before the unlocks of #APT and #SUI.

🔴 Keep in mind, not every unlock event have such impact on the price. But here they are dealing with whale money.

The technical outlook for #ARB also hints at continued growth. Having secured above the parallel channel, the coin is accumulating volumes to continue the uptrend. A consolidation above will serve as a key confirmation for sustained growth.

🔵 I’ve started building a medium-term position in #ARB within the $1.08 - $1.02 range. TP/Stop marked on the chart.

🟢 Crypto market short-term outlook - what's next?

As Bitcoin accumulating volumes above the descending structure, market interest keeps shifting. The formula remains consistent:

Bitcoin → High Cap Altcoin → Low Cap Altcoins

While #BTC struggles to break beyond ATH levels, the altcoin market shows robust dynamics with #BNB and #ETH leading the charts. Several factors influence this fundamentally:

◼ The supply of stablecoins has surged by over $15b in the last 3 months.

◼ More altcoins are being added to Grayscale's institutional portfolios.

◼ Rumors of next ETF pushing high institutional liquidity assets higher.

A bull rally is coming. However, as always, before Bitcoin experiences parabolic growth, we'll see high volume price action in the altcoin market.

🟣 What we see now is just the beginning of this trend.

🟢 #BNB +20% gain since last post

With a powerful rally, #BNB has approached our first target, setting a new ATH around $710. Those who followed my recommendation are now sitting on a +20% pure profit.

🟣 While breaking through the $730 resistance might require a bit more volume and some time, consolidating above this level will be a strong signal for an uptrend continuation.

Now, #BNB is in the price discovery phase, with the next significant resistance at $800, where a solid seller order block is located.

⚫️ I'm maintaining my full #BNB position and will start taking profits only once we reach the $800 mark. As I mentioned, this trend is just starting.

🔴 #ETHFI - getting ready for next big move

Since its launch, #ETHFI has soared over 3000%. Despite recent months of correction, #ETHFI has managed to stay above key resistance levels and is gearing up for a new uptrend.

🔵 On the daily chart, the price dipped into the $3.50 - $3.00 range to capture liquidity, followed by a strong impulse upwards. Volume profile suggests that this impulse was driven by significant buys from several whale wallets.

I expect further growth either from the current levels or following a retest at $4.50. My medium-term targets are $7.07 and $8.40.

⚪️ I’ve started building a spot position in #ETHFI within the $4.79 - $4.50 range. The expected price trajectory is marked on the chart.

🟢 #BTC - Long

Although I usually trade spot, Bitcoin's high market cap makes it difficult to achieve significant returns in the short term. To get a x2-x3 on #BTC using leverage is necessary.

🔵 Sellers failed to extend the correction, and the price bounced off the HVN zone at ~$70,400. Given the improving macroeconomics and the strong technical setup for #BTC, I expect a new ATH within the week.

Leverage: 20-25x
Entry: $71100 - $70400
TPs: $73300, $75500
Stop: $68304

⚫️ A dip below $70,000: What's Next?

At one point, #Bitcoin fell below $69,000 after the release of U.S. unemployment data showing an increase to 4%.

🟣 While analysts suggest that this data caused the drop, I actually think we witnessed sophisticated #market manipulation. One piece of evidence is the record number of hedge shorts by large players on the CME.

Their goal is simple:

◼ Shake out weak hands who are tired of waiting for a rise, prompting them to sell.
◼ Discourage strong hands from increasing their positions and longs.

The market makers’ playbook: squeeze out margin #traders, scare investors, and only then, after accumulating their own liquidity, push the price upward.

🟢 I believe we will see a recovery very soon. I am continuing to hold my #BTC position.

🟢 #STRK - a new addition to my portfolio

Although some may view L2 projects as secondary, solving Ethereum's scalability problem is crucial for achieving mass adoption.

🔵 This narrative has attracted major players in the industry. A clear evidence is the number of L2 projects launched on #Ethereum in 2024. Most of them quickly made their way into the top 100 on #Coinmarketcap within just a few weeks.

Since early March, #STRK has been correcting. Now, it entered accumulation phase. In the $1.40 - $0.98 range we see active buying from wallets holding over 100 #ETH.

The current market downturn looks like an excellent buying opportunity.

🟣 I’ve started building a medium-term position in #STRK within the $1.14 - $0.99 range. The expected price trajectory is marked on the chart.

🟢 GM, friends!

New day, new opportunities! Wishing you all a productive and positive day ahead.

🟣 Fam, your reactions and shares help our channel grow and thrive. Stay active so we can see your support. Let's max out the reactions on the previous post!

I'm preparing up a new post for you right now. Also, feel free to DM me with the type of content you want to see more of. @mllodon

🟢 What to expect from the market next week?

Several events that could impact prices:

◼ The Fed's rates decision. The rate is expected to remain at 5.50%, and this outcome is already priced in. More crucial is what Powell has to say.

Hints at future rate cuts could positively influence the market, while a narrative of persistently high inflation could extend the correction.

◼ Bitcoin ETF inflows. A critical metric to watch is the inflow into Bitcoin ETFs, which directly affects BTC price.

ETF issuers currently hold more than 5.5% of the total supply, and as long as demand for these ETFs remains robust, they will continue accumulating BTC, driving up the price.

◼ Growth in TVL for Ethereum projects. There is a record growth in total value locked for Ethereum-based projects, with significant activity in tokens like #AVAX, #OP, and #STRK.

While TVL doesn’t immediately translate into price movements, it is a fundamental indicator of health and interest. In the medium term, expect increased attention and capital flow into these projects.

🟣 Remember, globally we are still in an upward trend. View corrections as opportunities to accumulate, as capital tends to move from weak hands to strong hands during such times.

🟢 #FIL - primed for a powerful upswing

Despite the broader market correction, #FIL is holding within an accumulation range and is gearing up for a breakout.

🔵 According to the order book, the range between $6.20 and $5.40 is crucial for mid-term speculative accumulation by big player. This strong buyer volume profile prevents price from dropping below.

As such, I expect #FIL to break out of the accumulation range and, with strong momentum, test the significant resistance that separates it from the local high.

🟣 I’ve started building a position in $FIL within the $5.90 - $5.40 range. The expected price trajectory is marked on the chart.

🟢 #BTC - rejected from $70,000

Every bull run is always accompanied by corrections. The market never goes up continuously.

While we remain in a global uptrend, several factors have triggered a local correction:

◼ Outflows from ETFs totaled more than $60m in one day;
◼ The market is preparing liquidity ahead of Powell's speech.

I want to draw your attention to the second point. The consensus is solidly behind rates staying at 5.50%, but the most important are Powell's remarks. The real action will be in his hints about future moves.

🟣 If tomorrow’s speech hints at a rate cut in the coming months, we can expect the market to soar back above $70,000. Until then, such corrections should be viewed as opportunities to build positions.

🟢 GM, team!

Today, we’re expecting a volatile session due to the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data:

◼ May CPI (forecast: 3.4%);
◼ FOMC rate decision (forecast: 5.5%);
◼ FOMC press conference.

The CPI report, combined with last Friday’s unexpectedly high NFP numbers and other recent data releases, will likely prompt the Fed officials to reconsider their forecasts for inflation, and interest rates.

🟣 I recommend waiting for the economic data to be fully released before opening new futures positions. Spot positions are less susceptible to volatility, so we will maintain our current trades in full.