📢 | Updates:

Occupied Syria

Israeli occupation forces targeted the vicinity of Ma’ariya village in the western Daraa countryside with artillery shells.

Palestine

Dr. Basem Naim, a member of the Hamas Political Bureau, said that a strike on a café in Al-Shati Camp in Gaza resulted in six martyrs, including a child, and 10 injuries, three of them critical. He said the Peace Council bears responsibility for the continued killings and called on it to compel Netanyahu to implement the agreement.

Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad delegations met in Cairo, headed by Khalil al-Hayya and Ziyad al-Nakhalah respectively. The two sides discussed political and field developments, continued Israeli violations, the latest attack in Gaza, efforts to implement the ceasefire understandings, developments in the West Bank and occupied Jerusalem, conditions of prisoners, and mechanisms for Palestinian national partnership and joint action.

Lebanon

Israeli warplanes carried out air raids on the outskirts of Deir Siryan and Al-Mansouri. Artillery shelling targeted Douhat Kafr Rumman, Ali Al-Taher, Al-Dabsha, Sarbin, Mayfadoun, Al-Mansouri, the western outskirts of Houla, Ainatha, the area between Zawtar and Mayfadoun, and the valley between Zebqine and Shiheen. Explosions were reported in Hadatha, the vicinity of Birkat al-Naqqar on the outskirts of Shebaa, Mushaa Al-Mansouri, Ainatha, Zawtar Al-Sharqiyah, Houla, and Konin. Israeli forces conducted machine-gun sweeping toward Hadatha, Ayta al-Jabal, and Houla. An Israeli bulldozer, protected by two Merkava tanks, carried out excavation and digging operations near Birkat al-Naqqar on the outskirts of Shebaa, while further excavation was reported in the Mushaa area of Al-Mansouri. Israeli military vehicles were also seen moving from Hadatha toward the outskirts of Ayta al-Jabal. An Israeli drone dropped a sound bomb over Al-Mansouri.

Iran and Iraq

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, ahead of his strategic visit to Iraq, said that the relationship between the Iranian and Iraqi peoples is historical and inseparable. He emphasized the two countries’ shared history, brotherhood, resistance to foreign intervention, and common destiny, adding that the visit would focus on practical steps to strengthen bilateral and common security and promote prosperity for both peoples.

Iran and UAE

An Emirati oil tanker seized in the northern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz reportedly changed course and is now heading toward Bandar Abbas. The tanker had initially been bound for Jebel Ali port in the UAE before being diverted toward Iran.

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🇾🇪 | A look at the sniper rifles manufactured by Ansar Allah of Yemen:

Hasim — 20mm caliber
Effective range of approximately 2,500 meters; suitable for destroying equipment, light vehicles, and even point air-defense systems.

Zulfiqar 2 — 23mm caliber
Declared range of 4,000 meters; primarily designed for anti-fortification purposes, including reinforced bunkers, as well as low-altitude aerial targets such as large drones or hovering helicopters.

Sarmad — 50mm caliber
Range of approximately 1,250 meters; a multi-purpose platform capable of using various types of ammunition. It is mostly used for light anti-armor roles, point-target destruction, and engaging fixed equipment.

Qasem — 30mm caliber
Declared range of 5,000 meters; designed to engage armored vehicles, heavy vehicles, and low-altitude air-defense systems.

🔹@enemywatch

📢 | Major updates

Iran and Iraq

Qalibaf’s visit to Baghdad today comes amid a complex set of issues. According to high-level sources cited by Al-Akhbar, discussions are expected to cover regional security, economic relations, the passage of Iraqi oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the issue of factional weapons, including Iran’s position on Baghdad’s approach to the matter. The visit comes as the Iraqi government seeks a formula on weapons that could prevent an internal political and security crisis while easing American pressure. In this context, Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri called for moderation and an end to inflammatory rhetoric, stressing that restricting weapons is an exclusively Iraqi matter and that any decision must be made by Iraqis, while warning against giving external actors grounds to interfere in Iraq’s security, political, and economic affairs.

Yemen and Saudi Arabia

News sources reported that Sanaa forces have placed Aramco, including its facilities, installations, oil-storage tanks, crude-oil pipelines, and export ports, on their target list. They warned that Saudi Arabia’s refusal to meet Yemeni demands could put the country’s oil infrastructure at risk. Sanaa forces reportedly continue to restrict Saudi maritime access through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait and intend to prevent Saudi vessels from passing until Riyadh lifts its naval and aerial blockade of Yemen and fulfills its obligations. Yemeni navigation sources in Hodeidah reported that daily traffic through Bab al-Mandab has increased to around 30 vessels, but said that naval and coastal-defense forces have not permitted Saudi oil or other Saudi-flagged vessels to pass through the strait in recent weeks. They also said that Saudi ships and oil tankers in the Red Sea continue to be monitored and tracked.

Iran and Gulf states

Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Abdollahi, warned Gulf states that declare they will not allow the United States to use their territory against Iran that Tehran is monitoring developments closely. He said it was unlikely that such a large number of military aircraft, particularly aerial-refueling aircraft, could be deployed at regional bases without the knowledge of their host countries. He warned that any assistance or facilitation provided to U.S. military operations would be considered participation alongside U.S. forces.

Strait of Hormuz and global shipping

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed further on Wednesday as most shipowners continued avoiding the waterway amid uncertainty over when it would reopen. Six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from nine the previous day and below the 10-day daily average of 11. The lack of clear signals regarding the waterway’s reopening has kept shipping companies cautious, with traffic remaining far below normal levels. The disruption is also putting pressure on global energy markets, with oil prices rising amid concerns over exports through the strategic waterway. Iraq has begun examining alternative routes for crude exports, while some Chinese shipping companies have also rerouted vessels to avoid both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.

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📌 | Don’t post your children’s pictures or videos online. Publicly shared media can be permanently copied, scraped, tracked, and manipulated, including through AI-generated deepfakes. Images can also reveal faces, voices, school uniforms, home details, routines, and locations, making children easier to identify or track.

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🇮🇷❌🇺🇸🇪🇺一 Iran May Target US Military Facilities in Europe if Tensions Escalate — FT

According to the report, the options reportedly under consideration include:
🔹Bulgaria: Sources indicate that Iranian forces have been assessing the possibility of striking US military facilities in southeastern European countries, including Bulgaria.
🔹Cyprus: The island is also seen as a potential target for Iranian retaliation, particularly given the British airbase located there, which was previously struck by a drone in March.
🔹Undersea Internet Cables in the Strait of Hormuz: Iranian forces have reportedly also been exploring the option of targeting undersea fiber-optic cables running through the Strait of Hormuz in the event of renewed escalation.

These considerations point to Tehran's readiness to broaden the scope of any retaliatory response in a future confrontation — meaning strikes would not be confined to US bases and facilities in the Middle East, but could also extend to targets beyond the region.

@SimurghRes

The first involved the issue of drone trucks seized by the security services, documented and publicly displayed before the case ended with the drones being handed over to one of the factions. The second was the attempt to storm al-Nujaba’s headquarters in Jurf al-Naddaf, an operation that failed to achieve its objective. The third was the arrest of Abbas al-Yaqoubi from his home. It was the boldest of the three in terms of the nature of the target and the manner of execution, but it also ended in a similar outcome, as al-Yaqoubi is now back at home receiving well-wishers following his safe return.

Here lies the practical paradox: what was intended to demonstrate the state’s ability to reach a first-rank faction leader ultimately showed that the problem is not merely the government’s ability to carry out an arrest, but its ability to withstand what comes after it.

🔹@enemywatch

🇾🇪 🇾🇪 🇾🇪 | Yemeni Armed Forces:

The Yemeni Armed Forces have become so powerful that we are now dictating terms. With God's help, we have established three principles:

First, a blockade for a blockade, whereby we have imposed a strict siege on the Saudi enemy, preventing even a single ship from passing through. Second, striking Saudi troop concentrations wherever they may be. Third, protecting Yemen's sovereignty and confronting any enemy airspace incursions.

In implementing this blockade for a blockade, from the declaration of the maritime embargo against the Saudi enemy on July 20th until today, the Yemeni Armed Forces have targeted eight Saudi oil tankers: five in the Red Sea and three in the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

Additionally, 48 Saudi oil tankers were prevented from passing and forced to turn back, including 34 in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, and 14 in the Red Sea.

In response to the Saudi aggression against Sana'a Airport and Hodeidah Port, and to reinforce the principle of protecting Yemeni sovereignty from violations of our country's airspace, particularly in the governorates of Sa'dah and Hajjah, the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out nine military operations targeting Yanbu, Najran, Jizan, Abha, and oil supply lines in the Eastern Province.

Furthermore, to solidify the principle of targeting Saudi troop concentrations wherever they may be, the Armed Forces conducted fourteen military operations targeting Saudi enemy troop concentrations in Al-Ruwaik, Al-Abr, Al-Wadi'ah, Ma'rib, and Al-Mukha, as well as ships and boats transporting equipment and reinforcements belonging to the Saudi enemy.

The results of these operations included the death and injury of hundreds of Saudi enemy troops, including commanders and officers; the burning and destruction of a large number of warehouses and equipment belonging to the Saudi enemy; the sinking and burning of two military landing ships transporting Saudi weapons and reinforcements in Al-Mukha; the burning and sinking of more than ten ships belonging to the Saudi enemy, which were engaged in acts of piracy, banditry, and looting in the Red Sea under Saudi directives.

We warn the Saudi regime against the dangers of any escalation. Any escalation will be met with a comprehensive response. The Saudi regime has no option but to lift the blockade, implement the agreements reached, end the aggression, pay salaries, allow the occupiers to leave, and return the wealth of the Yemeni people to all of us. We advise those of our countrymen who have been misled to return and leave the enemy camps, because they are Yemenis, and we do not want to target them or make them victims.

🇾🇪@enemywatch

— The talk of a potential israeli-Turkish confrontation following the israeli attack on the already-damaged Abu al-Duhur military airport in occupied Syria, and israeli claims that the strike was intended to counter Turkish military positioning, should not be exaggerated or treated as an imminent major confrontation unless further developments confirm it. However, far more than reflecting the reality of an imminent confrontation, the situation increasingly looks like a well-planned theatre designed to create a particular narrative around something else that may be unfolding behind the scenes. The timing of the strike, the subsequent rhetoric from Ankara and Tel Aviv, and the involvement of figures such as Tom Barrack could all serve broader political and strategic purposes. Until more evidence emerges, it would be premature to interpret the developments simply as the beginning of a direct israeli-Turkish confrontation.

Nevertheless, the israeli strike has created a significant point of tension because Abu al-Duhur lies within an area connected to Turkey’s broader security environment. Tom Barrack’s remarks suggest that Turkey and israel may have come close to a military confrontation over the issue, while israeli statements have framed the attack as an attempt to prevent Turkish military positioning in Syria. Netanyahu has also raised the level of rhetoric toward Erdoğan by publicly presenting the Abu al-Duhur attack as part of an effort to prevent what israel considers threatening Turkish military positioning.

The larger issue is that israel continues to define its security environment through the post-October 7 doctrine, treating potential military threats before they fully materialize as targets for preemptive action. The attack in Syria, particularly within an area closely connected to Turkey’s security interests, fits into this broader approach. Reports of an understanding between israel and Damascus regarding the maintenance of the existing security situation also suggest that Tel Aviv wants to restrict military cooperation between Damascus and outside powers such as Turkey.

Turkey, however, is unlikely to accept arrangements that permanently constrain its perceived security interests in northern Syria. Ankara has repeatedly emphasized the importance of its strategic depth and security presence in the region. If israel continues expanding its military pressure inside Syria, particularly toward areas closer to Damascus, the possibility of confrontation or indirect escalation with Turkey could increase.

The more serious concern is therefore not necessarily an immediate israeli-Turkish war, but the possibility of miscalculation. israel’s increasingly expansive definition of its security perimeter, combined with Turkey’s determination to protect its interests in Syria, could produce an escalation neither side initially intends. The danger is that a policy designed to prevent future threats could itself create a confrontation far more dangerous than the traditional conflicts israel has faced with its established adversaries.

At the same time, the current presentation of events deserves scrutiny. The repeated statements, carefully timed rhetoric, political messaging, and attempts to frame the Abu al-Duhur strike as a direct israeli-Turkish confrontation may be serving a larger strategic narrative. Figures such as Tom Barrack and other political actors could use the situation for propaganda, pressure, or diplomatic leverage. There may be a broader calculation behind the scenes that has not yet become visible. However, one thing appears clear: Turkey and israel remain in coordination at multiple levels. The apparent confrontation itself could therefore be only one part of a much larger political or strategic development. Whatever happens next, israel may eventually seek to drag Turkey further into the situation, and a significant number, perhaps even a majority, of regional actors may have little sympathy for Turkey if that happens.

🔹@enemywatch