— Iran’s decision to strike American interests in Jordan was intended as a preemptive warning after Tehran received intelligence that the United States, together with some allies, was preparing a ground operation on one of Iran’s coastal islands to alter the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian move coincided with Yemeni faction entering the confrontation by striking Saudi Arabia, followed by a rapid American-Saudi response inside Iraq. This occurred on the eve of Iraqi Prime Minister Zaidi’s planned visit to Riyadh, following his visits to Washington and Turkey, placing him in a highly difficult political position.

The Iranian military action also coincided with the Trump-Netanyahu summit, making Tehran’s message one directed toward multiple parties. This suggests that strategic decision-making in Iran is currently being led primarily by the military establishment rather than politicians.

Trump, who is preparing a rapid response to the Iranian strike, may not be satisfied with a level of retaliation similar to that seen over the past two weeks. This raises the possibility of a broader regional escalation if Tehran responds to any forthcoming American strike with wider military operations.

Mediation efforts and negotiations are still continuing and remain the only hope of preventing a return to full-scale war. However, the question remains how long those efforts can continue and at what cost, especially as the war expands across Iraq, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, with the possibility of further deterioration in southern Lebanon and potentially Egypt (?).

🔹@enemywatch

🔻Kuwait

— One thing is clear: preemptive responses and the regular demonstration of the power, capability, and determination of the Resistance Front and its people have reduced the pace of the dangers posed by America and Israel.

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— Will Hamas really hand over its weapons? When, and how?

What has been announced so far does not mean that Hamas has decided to hand over its weapons or has begun implementing such a decision. Rather, the Palestinian side has accepted a negotiating framework containing highly stringent conditions that make any process of restricting and storing heavy weapons conditional upon Israel fully implementing its commitments during the first phase.

These commitments include halting attacks, airstrikes, and assassination operations, withdrawing to the “Yellow Line” and evacuating areas occupied in recent months, enabling the Palestinian National Committee and an international stabilization force to operate, and fully implementing the humanitarian protocol, including the entry of humanitarian aid, the resettlement of displaced people, debris removal, and the reconstruction of critical infrastructure such as electricity and water systems.

The proposed Palestinian framework is based on three principles: gradualism, simultaneity, and verification. Under this approach, no stage begins until the previous one has been fully completed. Responsibility for restricting and storing the weapons would rest with a Palestinian body, while the weapons themselves would remain inside the Gaza Strip and would not be handed over to Israel or any external party.

From a political perspective, this degree of flexibility can be viewed as an attempt to protect the resistance project from another existential war while buying time until after the Israeli elections on 27 October and the US presidential election on 3 November 2026. In this equation, time itself becomes a strategic asset, giving Gaza an opportunity to recover while awaiting regional developments and shifts in the balance of power.

Conversely, the likelihood that Benjamin Netanyahu will fully honor these commitments during the middle of an election campaign appears limited. Any Israeli breach of its obligations would halt the phased implementation of the agreement, allowing the resistance to argue that the deal had been violated by the other side and was therefore no longer enforceable. Under such circumstances, some of the political and legal justifications used to resume the war would also be weakened.

The historical experience of the Palestinian resistance shows that ceasefires and phased agreements have repeatedly been used as tools to reorganize priorities, rebuild capabilities, and preserve key elements of strength. Likewise, the Lebanese experience following UN Security Council Resolution 1701 demonstrated that restrictions on military deployment south of the Litani River did not result in complete disarmament, and that Hezbollah was later able to rebuild and further develop its capabilities.

For this reason, the central question today is not, “When will Hamas hand over its weapons?” Rather, it is whether Israel will actually fulfill the commitments upon which the beginning of this process depends, or whether acceptance of this framework will come to a halt precisely at the point where Israel is expected to begin making meaningful withdrawals.

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🇮🇷/🏴| The Commander of Khuzestan Province’s Police Force announced the martyrdom of a third police officer who had been wounded during an armed clash with smugglers in Shadegan County. Earlier, Martyr Mehdi Mahdavikia and Martyr Sina Siahnejad were also martyred in the same incident.

▪️@enemywatch

🇱🇧 | Israeli forces have intensified their attacks across southern Lebanon over the past 20 hours, carrying out artillery shelling on Tallousa, the heights of Ali al-Taher, the outskirts of Al Mansouri and Majdal Zoun, the Al Mansouri area with fire from a Merkava tank positioned in Al Bayyada, and Jabal Sadana on the outskirts of Shebaa. Large demolition operations and explosions were reported in the Al Shaqif area around midnight, as well as in Deir Siryan, Kfartebnit, Taybeh, Qantara, Eastern Zoutar, and Hadatha. Enemy forces also conducted machine-gun sweeping operations from the radar site toward the town of Shebaa, while tanks advanced into Hadatha and carried out additional machine-gun fire. An enemy drone dropped a sound bomb on the town of Al Mansouri, and illumination flares were fired over the forests of Ali al-Taher. Meanwhile, occupation forces set fire to homes, agricultural land, and property in Mays al-Jabal, Mhaibib, and Aitaroun, including the burning of fields in Mays al-Jabal.

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🇾🇪 | The Yemeni Armed Forces announced that eight Saudi oil tankers were forced to change their route toward the Cape of Good Hope, stating that the blockade imposed on the Saudi enemy will continue.

The Yemeni Ministry of Foreign Affairs also declared that no rational country would join what it described as Saudi Arabia’s “foolish coalition,” adding that the Yemeni people’s confrontation with the Saudi-led coalition is, in its view, a legitimate struggle to restore what it considers usurped rights and end the blockade.

Al Mayadeen’s Yemen bureau further reported that the statement by the Yemeni Armed Forces indicates they intend to target Saudi vessels wherever they are able to reach them, even if the ships alter their routes.

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🇮🇷 | Mr. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated:

“The continued naval blockade and warmongering by the United States will further tighten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and will also lead to the closure of other strategic straits and chokepoints. The consequences will be borne by the global economy, the energy market, and American voters.”

🔹@enemywatch

🟦 | Khatm al-Anbiya HQ

Major General Abdollahi, Commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters:

The United States is accelerating its path toward igniting a wider regional war.

This approach reflects a dangerous strategy aimed at expansion and illegitimate domination across the entire region.

During the recent war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, criminal America proved that in pursuing its satanic objectives, it will refrain from no act of aggression or destruction against the interests and resources of the Muslim world.

Muslim countries in the region must understand that the United States is using their capital, wealth, vital infrastructure, and strategic resources as a defensive shield for its weakened military while simultaneously strengthening the war machine and security of the child-killing and terrorist Zionist regime.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, together with the brave sons of the nation serving in the Armed Forces and the Resistance Front, has demonstrated that the regional balance of power no longer follows its previous dynamics.

America’s failure to achieve its aggressive and illegitimate objectives against the Islamic Republic has forced the collapsing US military and the illegitimate Zionist regime to wage war, shed blood, and commit acts of aggression from behind the defensive lines of Muslim countries, shifting the costs of war onto the governments of the region.

We state clearly: Muslim countries must act with foresight, closely monitor America’s crimes, and reconsider their cooperation and alignment with the United States. Otherwise, any country that allows itself to become a defensive shield for criminal and aggressive America will burn in the flames of war.

🔹@enemywatch

🇮🇷🔻| Over the past few hours, four separate explosion incidents have been reported in Kuwait, reportedly linked to drone attacks. Kuwaiti authorities acknowledged that a number of vital facilities were targeted, including a government facility in the northern part of the country and civilian vehicles belonging to a construction company on Bubiyan Island, resulting in material damage. However, the Iranian Armed Forces have not yet released any official statement confirming responsibility or indicating that Kuwait has been designated as a regular preemptive target in response to perceived threats.

▪️@enemywatch

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