🇮🇷: 🇹🇯 | Iran-Tajikistan trade goal of $1 billion:

Iran and Tajikistan are pursuing an increase in bilateral trade volume with a target of reaching $1 billion, focusing on expanding economic cooperation and removing barriers to commerce. Recent efforts include visa-free travel for road transport drivers starting March 2026 to facilitate trade flows and growing exchanges in non-energy goods such as petrochemicals, metals, and agricultural products, with trade between the two nations rising year-on-year toward this goal.

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🏴‍☠️ | Israeli raids in Quneitra countryside:

Israeli forces stormed Ein Zivan village, raided homes, set up a roadblock, searched civilians, and obstructed movement, and also entered Sida Al-Jolan in southern Quneitra and arrested a young man.

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🇮🇷: 🇷🇺 | Russian navy docks in Bandar Abbas:

The Russian Navy has docked at Bandar Abbas to participate in joint naval drills with the Iranian Navy in the Gulf of Oman, ahead of exercises scheduled for tomorrow. During remarks at the port, the Russian fleet commander spoke at a lectern bearing the phrase “our path is the path of Imam Husayn”.

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People need to understand that Iran's only way of pressuring America in case of war, is by dragging the entire region into it and making the Americans unable to deal with the consequences. Every single option will no longer be held back, all axes will be activated.

If America attacks, assuming it's a large-scale attack aimed at toppling the regime, Iran will unleash EVERYTHING it has—and the Middle East will explode, from Iran to Jordan, from Yemen to Kuwait—the ENTIRE region will be ablaze. There will be a global energy crisis, and it will push other anti-American forces to try their luck in various parts of the world.

This has the possibility of becoming America's second Vietnam. They're entering into something of which they cannot possibly fathom the implications for decades to come.

If a large-scale war happens, even if the Iranian government doesn't fall, it will be a historic moment far more instrumental than the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.

I can assure you that the Islamic Republic won't fall easily. It will trigger a civil war far more deadly and violent than Syria.

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✅ | This situation is not new for Iran, and it is not something sudden or unexpected. The possibility of American aggression has been part of Iran’s strategic calculations for decades. At its core, beyond any specific government, political faction, or individual, the Iranian state core has always prepared for the scenario of a large-scale confrontation. From Tehran’s perspective, if such a war begins, it will not remain limited or symbolic. It will become regional.

Iran is not approaching this moment as an unplanned crisis. This is not a case of misunderstanding sudden attacks or being caught off guard. Those are completely different historical circumstances. What is unfolding now has taken time to develop. It has evolved through years of tension, sanctions, military buildups, proxy confrontations, and explicit threats. The evolution is now visible. The scenario has matured, and Iran has structured its deterrence around exactly this possibility.

For years, Iranian officials repeatedly warned that any aggression would lead to a regional war. Martyr Hossein Amir-Abdollahian clearly stated multiple times that the region would not remain untouched if Iran were attacked. At the time, many questioned how such expansion would occur. Today, the mechanisms are clearer. Iran’s regional networks, missile capabilities, naval positioning, and strategic geography were not developed overnight. They were built with this very contingency in mind.

Imam Khamenei has repeatedly emphasized that the issue with the West is not truly nuclear. The deeper issue, from his perspective, is that American world seek to swallow Iran, to neutralize its independence and strategic identity. That framing shapes Iran’s long-term defensive doctrine. If leadership believes the objective of an adversary is systemic elimination rather than policy adjustment, then deterrence becomes existential.

Civil war would only happen in the case of internal riots, as Imam Khamenei mentioned yesterday — that the only thing they can attempt is to repeat such riots. Iran would not use this as a selfish tactic, but it would take it as a reason to target all American bases.

Yes, Imam Khamenei is Wali al-Faqih, and yes, do not underestimate the Shia world — it is not a joke. Resistance forces are present in many places, and that alone is enough to say. The region will face the consequences, as many anonymous fronts have their fingers on triggers. Iran, at its core, believes that its fall would lead to the fall of the entire Islamic world, including KSA, which houses the holy mosques.

Iran would expand such a war not for selfish motives, but, as it sees it, to protect the entire Muslim world.

If the United States were to launch a large-scale operation aimed at regime change, the assumption that the system would collapse quickly may not align with institutional realities. Iran’s political and military structure includes succession mechanisms and layered command chains. Even in extreme hypothetical scenarios, the system is designed to continue functioning. The concept of vacuum does not easily apply to a structure that has institutional depth.

The possibility of internal unrest is often mentioned. However, there is a significant difference between unrest triggered by economic or social grievances and a full-scale civil war capable of fragmenting the state. Iran’s leadership has openly acknowledged that external actors may attempt to repeat episodes of riots. But riots are not equivalent to systemic collapse. In fact, historically, external military pressure can consolidate internal alignment rather than dissolve it.

Iran’s strategic thinking suggests that if war is imposed, it will not respond in a narrow or symbolic way. It would treat aggression as justification to expand the battlefield beyond a single front. U.S. bases across the region would immediately become high-risk targets. Maritime routes, particularly critical energy corridors, would enter a zone of instability.

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From Iran’s perspective, this is not framed as selfish expansionism. It is presented internally as defensive escalation designed to prevent systemic destruction. Legally, Iran has the right to attack its enemies who are using other countries’ lands to target it, because the base itself is considered part of America, not the so-called specific country where it hides as a disguise. Iran will attack them all, and this would be the start of a huge regional war.

Globally, the consequences would not remain regional. Energy markets would react instantly. Major powers such as Russia and China would recalibrate. Asian importers would face supply insecurity. European states would experience economic pressure and possible refugee movements. Cyber operations could extend far beyond the Middle East and affect international infrastructure.

A full-scale war in this context would not produce a clean or contained outcome. Even if one side achieved short-term military advantages, the long-term economic, political, and security consequences could reshape the region for decades.

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🇮🇷 | IRGC intelligence chief on foreign involvement:

Brigadier General Majid Khadimi, head of IRGC Intelligence, stated that Israel’s Unit 8200 played a clear role in the unrest in Iran, and that 10 foreign security agencies directly intervened in the armed riots. He added that more than 15,000 individuals linked to anti-security networks and 46 foreign agents were identified, claiming security agencies were preparing for a military attack phase backed by separatist factions after the riots.

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🇮🇷 | Under-18 detainees released in Iran:

Iranian Justice Minister Amin Hossein Rahimi stated that many detainees under 18 from recent incidents have been released, with efforts underway to return them to their families through bail arrangements. He said no murder cases have been reported among those under 18, and added that he believes no students remain in detention, although some minors are still awaiting release.

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