🔥 Betting Disguised as Trading? The Main Debate Around Prediction Markets

A bookmaker and a prediction market can offer the same prediction — for example, which team will win. But from a regulatory perspective, they are two different products.

📌A bookmaker operates under the rules of a specific state. Entering a new market may require a separate license, a local partnership, product certification, as well as compliance with advertising, geolocation, KYC, and responsible gambling requirements. The operator also pays the state-mandated tax on gambling revenue.

📌Prediction markets use a different structure: a user purchases a financial contract on the outcome of an event. If the contract is traded on a registered exchange, its regulation falls under the CFTC. Instead of separate gambling licenses, a federal regulatory framework applies.

This is where the main legal dispute arises: if a user predicts the winner of a match, is it a sports bet or a financial derivative?

One of the main participants in the dispute is Kalshi, a CFTC-registered exchange for event contracts. The company considers sports contracts to be financial derivatives, while state gaming regulators view them as unlicensed sports betting.

✔️ In March 2025, New Jersey authorities ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports contracts to state residents. Kalshi went to federal court and obtained an injunction blocking enforcement of the order. In September 2026, New Jersey appealed to the US Supreme Court over the division of regulatory authority.

This also matters for traffic operations: a change in the legal status of prediction markets could affect advertising, registration, and affiliate program terms.

👉 Why has the dispute between federal and state regulators emerged around prediction markets? Read the full analysis here.

Can prediction markets compete with bookmakers on equal terms? 👇

🔥 Swipe instead of spin: casinos are copying TikTok — and it's working

A player watches a short penalty-kick video and picks an outcome in seconds: goal, save, or miss. The clip plays out — result revealed. Don't like the scene? Swipe — next one. A round takes 8–10 seconds.
It's not a slot and not a sports bet. It's a new hybrid: short video + instant game + simplified betting.

📌 The average bet in swipe games on one market turned out to be 20x higher than in crash games at the same operator. Player behavior looks closer to sports betting — with round lengths matching crash. Provider's own data.
📌 Swipe Games has built a library of 20,000+ videos and generates content with AI — because a repeated clip kills the sense of a fresh event. The content factory becomes part of the game product.
📌 The lobby turns into a recommendation feed: even a swipe without a bet is data. The operator learns football doesn't hook you but cars do — and the feed adapts.

Key nuance: outcomes are determined by certified RNG, not the video's "real" logic. The penalty kick is the context for a decision, not a sporting event.
And the format's big question: an endless feed with no natural stopping point + a bet on every clip. Monetization loves it. Regulators — not so much.

👉 How swipe changes monetization, CRM, the fate of game studio brands, and what operators should measure — full breakdown here
Swipe casinos — a new genre on the level of crash games, or a pretty shell for one season? 👇

⚡️ Friday digest: save it, you'll need it

This week's fresh materials — from GEO reviews to job openings. You don't have to read everything, but knowing where it all lives is worth it.

🪄 iGaming Heroes
📌 MyAffiliates Group CEO Clemence Dujardin: "People aren't spreadsheets"
📌 More interviews — here

🪄 Worth reading
📌Swipe instead of spin: why casinos are copying TikTok and what it means for monetization
📌Licensed today, banned tomorrow: what's happening with Brazil's gambling reform
📌 The next regulator is the algorithm: who decides which casino a player sees
📌 Prediction markets in Kazakhstan: a new financial instrument or an alternative to betting?
📌 More articles — here

🪄 GEO reviews
📌 Finland: iGaming market overview
📌 Norway: iGaming market overview
📌 More reviews — here

🪄 Promo codes
📌 Tyver — promo code 3SNET gives 15% off your first payment on any plan.
📌 More promo codes for operators and affiliates — here

🪄 Companies
📌 CoreSettle — payment orchestration platform
📌 Anosim.net — SMS verification and mobile number rental service
📌 Proxied — 4G and 5G mobile proxy service
📌 More companies — here

🪄Jobs
📌 Affiliate TeamLead at GGR Global
📌 More jobs — here

🪄 Conferences
📌 SBWA 2026 — Dakar, October 14–16
📌 More conferences — here

What's missing from the digest? Tell us — we'll add it to the next issue ❤️‍🔥

Happy Monday! Brazil has banned online betting, and the illegal market is already celebrating an influx of 428 websites. It seems the screenwriters have gone on a smoke break 👇

⚡️ Brazil's fight against iGaming, prediction markets on track to reach $10 trillion, and lifetime self-exclusion in Russia: what's changing in the industry. In this week's roundup, we break down the consequences of Brazil's ban, the growth of prediction markets, and new restrictions across different GEOs.

📌 Brazil: A ban that could cost billions
— Brazil's president issued a temporary decree  banning online betting websites from operating. Players must request withdrawals by October 5.
— In just three days, 428 new illegal betting websites appeared  in the country.
— The illegal market's GGR could reach $8.35 billion annually, while the government budget could lose around $2.31 billion in revenue each year. These estimates come from a study .
— According to the ANJL association's forecast, if online casinos are banned, the illegal market's share could rise from 41% to 82% .
— At the same time, 75% of Brazilians support a ban on online betting, while 17% oppose it. The Atlas/Bloomberg poll surveyed 5,015 people. Read more 

— They got a license, but casinos could be banned: what's happening with Brazil's reform 

📌 Predictions about prediction markets
— During the 2026 World Cup broadcasts, prediction market advertising accounted for 10% of all logos shown . By comparison, betting ads accounted for 6.9%.
— By 2035, trading volume on prediction markets could reach $10 trillion . The figure is estimated at $410 billion for 2026.
— In Canada, fantasy sports, prediction markets, and social casinos are considered among the fastest-growing segments. However, none of these verticals is regulated under gambling legislation. Read more 

— Exchanges instead of bookmakers: how prediction markets are creating a parallel sports betting market 

📌 Russia: Lifetime self-exclusion?
— Up to 40% of Russians have already self-excluded from gambling or plan to do so in the near future. These findings came from a survey conducted by Vybеru.ru and Eurocredit.ru. Read more 
— The Federation Council has proposed making self-exclusion from gambling permanent . The initiative was put forward by Vadim Dengin, a member of the Committee on Budget and Financial Markets.

— How to protect players: methods of combating gambling addiction 

📌 Other GEOs: restrictions and new rules
— Ethiopia: More than 250 offshore operators are already targeting local players. Before the legal sector was shut down in December 2025, 196 licensed operators were active in the country. Read more 
— South Africa: Gross betting turnover reached nearly $67 billion in 2025. Online betting accounts for around 60% of the market. Source 
— Bulgaria: The authorities plan to effectively ban almost all gambling advertising, retaining an exemption for sports sponsorship. They have also announced plans to significantly increase taxes on iGaming. Details 
— Armenia: Starting February 8, 2027, companies without a gambling license will be prohibited from using gambling-related words in their names. The fine for each violation will be approximately $1,375. Read more 

📌 What do you think?!
— Malta's regulator has published its first charter  on the use of artificial intelligence in games. It will serve as a guideline for developing future AI policies.
— According to an Ipsos Doxa survey, 33% of men and 27% of women believe that managing money wisely makes it possible to earn money through gambling. The study surveyed 1,000 people. Read more 

🪄

👉 Which story surprised you most this week? Drop it in the comments.

👍 Subscribe — the industry's key news every week

⚡️ More Than Just a License: What Did Casino Secrets Uncover About Offshore iGaming?

A license is in place, the documents are in order, and the casino is accepting traffic. Can you breathe easy? Not quite. The Casino Secrets investigation revealed just how complicated the inner workings of offshore iGaming can be — from casino owners to platform providers and payment infrastructure.

On September 22, an international group of journalists published an investigation into licensing in Curaçao and the connections between iGaming companies. The investigation covers more than 84,000 documents, over 2 TB of data, and around 1,000 companies.

📌For the industry, this story matters not so much because of the list of names and companies, but because of the questions it raises. How much can a license tell you about who actually controls a casino? Can companies be considered independent if they are connected through financing, infrastructure, and cash flows? And is checking a license and the legal entity's name enough for an affiliate before starting a partnership?

✔️In this article, we cover:
— why a Curaçao license does not automatically open every GEO
— whether Casino Secrets proves that specific companies have violated the law — why the consequences could extend beyond Curaçao
— what has not yet been proven in this investigation
— why a formal UBO does not always provide the full picture
— key takeaways from Casino Secrets: what could change in licensing
— what consequences operators and providers may face
— what the investigation means for payment companies
— what affiliates should take into account

Important: the investigation is not a legal verdict, and some of its findings are disputed by the parties mentioned. However, it raises plenty of questions about the conventional approach to vetting operators.

👉 Why a license alone is no longer enough and what risks may be hiding behind a familiar brand — read the full analysis on 3S.INFO.

What impact do you think the Casino Secrets investigation will have on the industry? 👇

⚡️ Scale Your Team's Mobile Infrastructure Cost-Effectively

DuoPlus moves Android devices to the cloud: instead of managing dozens of physical smartphones, you can control individual Cloud Phones through a single dashboard.

Each Cloud Phone is a standalone Android environment for working with apps and accounts. Devices can be grouped, apps can be installed centrally, and repetitive operations can be automated.

For affiliate teams, SMM, e-commerce, and mobile marketing, this means less hassle with physical devices and more convenient management of mobile infrastructure.

What else is included in DuoPlus:
🔹 Cloud Numbers and proxy tools
🔹 RPA and automation
🔹 API and Android ADB
🔹 Action synchronization across devices
🔹 Collaborative work with cloud devices
🔹 Centralized app management

🎁 A promo code 3sinfo5 is available for our subscribers, giving 5% off DuoPlus.

👉 Details and terms — here.

⚡️ Brazil Is Shutting Down Legal iGaming. What Happens to the Market Next?

The market into which operators have invested hundreds of millions of dollars could be shut down with a single decision. Licensed bookmakers have already stopped accepting new deposits, and their websites and apps are expected to cease operating on October 6.

What happens next? We see four possible scenarios:

📌The ban remains in place — the market changes its structure rather than disappearing.
📌Courts suspend the measure — but the previous conditions will not return.
📌Congress eases the restrictions — the market returns, but under different rules.
📌The regulated market is restored — with trust undermined and capital becoming more expensive.

Which scenario is more realistic, why even lifting the ban will not restore the market to its previous state, what risks affiliates now face, and what steps are worth taking right now — find out in the full analysis .

Which scenario do you consider the most likely?
⚡️ — The ban remains in place
⚡️ — Courts suspend the measure
👍 — Congress eases the ban
❤️‍🔥 — The market returns