🔮 Hyperliquid’s Outcome Trading could change the prediction market

In February 2026, Hyperliquid announced HIP-4 — support for outcome trading on HyperCore. Outcomes are fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range. They represent a general-purpose primitive useful for applications such as prediction markets and bounded, options-like instruments.

And the context here matters 👇

Seven years ago, the founder of Hyperliquid participated in Binance Labs with a project called Deaux, which aimed to launch a prediction market. At the time, the idea was premature — the market simply wasn’t ready.

😎 Today, things are different. Prediction markets are growing rapidly, but most players only have a platform. Hyperliquid, on the other hand, has its own L1, liquidity, EVM integration, portfolio margin, USDH, and strong tokenomics powered by HYPE.

This is no longer just another prediction market. It’s an attempt to embed prediction tools into a full-fledged derivatives infrastructure. And if the sector continues to develop, Hyperliquid has everything it needs to become its foundational infrastructure.

😎 ESMA warns: perpetual futures may fall under EU CFD rules

A CFD (Contract for Difference) is a derivative allowing traders speculate on price movements without owning the underlying asset and with no expiration date. In practice, many perpetual futures work in a very similar way — the difference is often more about naming than mechanics.

🤔 If regulators treat perps as CFDs, they would automatically fall under existing restrictions. In some jurisdictions, CFDs are banned (e.g. in the US), which could create risks for both Perp DEXs and centralized exchanges.

⚖️ FDMC vs CMC: What should you consider before buying a token?

Many investors compare crypto projects by market cap but not everyone understands the difference between two key metrics – FDMC and CMC.

🫥FDMC (Fully Diluted Market Cap) = price × all tokens that will ever be issued.
🫥CMC (Circulating Market Cap) = price × tokens currently in circulation.

The difference between them represents future inflation. Tokens are almost always released gradually through vesting schedules. As a result, CMC increases over time even if the price remains unchanged, while FDMC changes only when the token price moves.

A simple example:

A project plans to issue 1,000 tokens at $0.1. In the first year, 100 tokens are unlocked. In the second year, another 200 tokens are unlocked.

If the token price remains constant:
Year 1: FDMC = $100, CMC = $10
Year 2: FDMC = $100, CMC = $30
The price didn’t change but the circulating supply tripled.

So how do you use this in practice? 🤔

If the gap between FDMC and CMC is large (for example, like $HYPE), it means significant unlocks are ahead creating potential selling pressure. It can also signal that the token is priced “in advance” of its actual circulating value.

If FDMC ≈ CMC (like $BNB), most tokens are already in circulation. No major unlocks are expected, which reduces structural selling pressure and makes the supply more stable.

The takeaway is simple: FDMC shows what the project is worth “in theory.” CMC shows how much capital is actually at work right now. Ignoring the gap between them means ignoring future inflation.

🥇 $UNI +15% in 24 hours. The reason is token economics.

Chart: $UNI price over the past 24 hours. CoinDesk.

Uniswap has updated $UNI’s economic model through a governance proposal. The initiative includes activating protocol fees across 8 additional chains and automating fee capture across all v3 pools. The potential impact is up to $27 million in annual revenue.

Considering current buyback and burn spending (~$34 million per year), the total annual budget could reach $61 million. The market reacted predictably: $UNI jumped about 15% in 24 hours.

🎯 But the key point isn’t the numbers — it’s the structure. Demand for Uniswap’s products now directly feeds into the token’s economics.

🤔 This is another confirmation of the 2026 trend: a token must reflect the value of the underlying business.

😎 8Blocks on stage at Blockchain Forum 2026 😎

Looking forward to Blockchain Forum 2026? You should 😎 Because we’ll be speaking on the AI Future Stage with a topic many prefer not to say out loud:

“The Token Market Is Dying: Why Demand for Utility Tokens Is Falling and What a Token Must Look Like in 2026 to Attract Investment.”

Capital is rotating into equities, 80% of new tokens are trading below their TGE price, and investors are increasingly ignoring the concept of “utility for utility.”

Our lead tokenomics expert and co-founder, Anton Efimenko, will explain why this is happening, where token economic models most often break down, and will analyze demand structure along with real-world cases.

🤯 And a reminder: we’re not just speaking – we’re also participating as a Sapphire Sponsor with our own booth SP7. We’ll be happy to meet each of you in person!

🎟 Enjoy a 10% discount on tickets with the promo code 8Blocks.

See you at the AI Future Stage at Blockchain Forum 2026 in Moscow!

🥇 $VVV +20% in 24 hours while the market is falling. Coincidence? No — tokenomics.

Chart: $VVV price over the past 24 hours. CoinDesk.

Venice Token ($VVV) hit a yearly high amid a broader market decline, gaining over 20% in a single day. The reason lies in its token structure.

Venice AI surpassed 2 million users, reduced annual token emissions by 25%, and integrated $VVV into major DeFi protocols: Aerodrome, Morpho, and Plena.

Importantly, $VVV is not just a speculative asset. The token provides API access and eligibility for rewards. Without it, platform usage is either limited or economically inefficient.

🎯 More users ⇒ higher product demand ⇒ stronger token demand.

While the broader market declines, reinforces the 2026 narrative: hype doesn’t win — functional tokenomics does 😉

📉 Crypto prices don’t crash because of sellers: they crash because of buyers

A seller almost always wants to sell at the highest possible price. A buyer, on the other hand, tries to buy as cheaply as possible.

When demand is weak, buyers start waiting for lower prices. They refuse current offers and gradually push the market down. That’s why the key factor behind a token’s price is not the number of sellers, but the quality of demand.

If demand is driven only by marketing, it disappears quickly. As soon as the news flow fades, buyers go back to waiting for a better entry.

🎯 But the situation changes when a token has real utility.

When the token is required to use the product (whether for accessing a service, earning rewards, or participating in the platform’s economy), buyers start purchasing it at the current market price.

🤔 That’s why sustainable tokenomics is built not around marketing, but around utility-driven demand. In other words, a stable price emerges when the token is a necessary element of the product’s economic model.

☠️ Worse than post-FTX: 38% of altcoins near historic lows

Chart: The percentage of altcoins trading at or near all-time lows. Source: CryptoQuant

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, around 38% of altcoins are currently trading close to their historical lows, a situation even worse than the market conditions seen after the FTX collapse.

One of the key reasons is liquidity rotation. Capital is gradually moving out of altcoins and into equities and commodities, while daily altcoin trading volumes have dropped to around $49 billion.

Analysts also highlight two structural factors putting pressure on the market:
🫥 the oversupply of tokens competing for limited investor capital,
🫥 the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which has redirected liquidity toward traditional financial instruments.

😎 As a result, altcoins are facing not only market volatility, but also a shift in how capital is allocated across the crypto market.

🚀 Bitcoin mining is going beyond Earth

Starcloud plans to start mining $BTC in orbit. Yep, literally in space. The company intends to install solar-powered ASIC equipment on a satellite.

🤔Founded in early 2024, Starcloud focuses on building space-based data centers as a response to the growing energy demands of the AI industry. Back in November, it sent a satellite into orbit equipped with an NVIDIA H100, one of the most powerful GPUs ever used in space.

Now the next step is bitcoin mining.

According to CEO Philip Johnston, mining $BTC in orbit could be more cost-efficient than doing it on Earth. And the reasoning is surprisingly down to earth: near-constant access to solar energy and natural cooling. That means lower electricity costs and fewer expenses tied to hardware cooling.

😎While the industry keeps searching for new energy sources to power computation, mining may become one of the first real use cases for orbital data centers.

And all of this is happening while $BTC remains under pressure amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

🔮 Prediction markets under pressure: Kalshi loses in Ohio

Prediction market platform Kalshi has lost its court battle against the state of Ohio, despite the fact that the CFTC had previously classified the company’s products as swaps, not sports betting. The court saw it differently.

The judge ruled that Kalshi failed to prove its sports event contracts fall under the CFTC’s “exclusive jurisdiction.”

The opinion and order said:

“Even if this Court were to find that sports-event contracts are swaps subject to the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, Kalshi has not shown that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws.”

In other words, federal derivatives regulation doesn’t override a state’s authority to regulate gambling.

Kalshi has already announced it disagrees with the ruling and plans to appeal. The timeline for the next stage of the legal battle has not yet been disclosed.

😎 This case is quickly becoming a major precedent for prediction markets in the United States. At stake is a fundamental question: should these contracts be treated as financial instruments or as gambling products?

🇪🇺 MiCA is reshaping Europe’s crypto market

The new MiCA rules, now officially in force across the EU, are gradually changing the structure of the region’s crypto industry. Stricter regulatory and operational requirements are already starting to impact the market and could reduce the number of lightly regulated platforms.

And we’re already seeing movement.

Crypto wealth manager Swissborg has secured MiCA approval and is preparing to move its European operations to France, with plans to expand further into Germany, Italy, and Spain.

And at the same time, the opposite trend is playing out. Just a month ago, crypto exchange Gemini announced it would scale back part of its business in the EU.

🖼️ MiCA is quietly redrawing the lines. Companies that are ready to operate in a fully regulated environment gain access to European infrastructure, while less transparent business models start moving out of the region.

🏦 Wall Street is preparing to move the stock market onto blockchain

The largest U.S. stock exchanges are stepping deeper into crypto infrastructure as they position themselves for the growth of tokenized equities.

Chart: Tokenized assets market forecast (BCG/Ripple)

NASDAQ is working with Kraken to build a blockchain platform for asset trading. ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, has taken a stake in crypto exchange OKX. The biggest players in traditional finance are no longer standing on the sidelines. They are moving directly into the infrastructure layer.

Blockchain, in this case, means the ability to trade assets globally and around the clock, without being limited by traditional exchange hours.

For now, the tokenized equities market is still relatively small, around 1 billion dollars. But the volume of assets that could eventually migrate to blockchain is estimated at 126 trillion dollars.

If this transition starts unfolding at scale, it will go far beyond a niche crypto segment. It would reshape the infrastructure of global stock markets.

😎 Oil and silver outperform crypto on Hyperliquid

Pic: Hyperliquid's perpetual rankings. (Hyperliquid)

Over the past 24 hours, oil and silver have surpassed all cryptocurrencies on Hyperliquid by trading volume, except for $BTC and $ETH.

The reason is returns and volatility, which are now comparable to the crypto market. Over the past month, Brent is up 45%, while $BTC has gained just 0.59%.

😎 Nasdaq’s tokenization plans could lead to market fragmentation

Canadian investment bank TD Securities highlights a key risk of tokenizing securities: the emergence of two markets for the same asset.

After tokenization, stocks could trade in parallel — on traditional exchanges and on blockchain infrastructure. These markets would have different liquidity, volumes, and participants. Add varying time zones and trading hours, and over time this could lead to price discrepancies for the same asset.

🤔 Bottom line: instead of a single price, the market may end up with multiple versions of value — creating new risks and potentially unpredictable consequences for the entire system.

😠 Quantum computers could wipe out Bitcoin and Ethereum within the next two years

A recent Google study suggests that breaking elliptic curve cryptography, the foundation of Bitcoin and Ethereum, may require a quantum computer with around 500,000 qubits. That’s significantly lower than previous estimates.

If that level of power becomes available, a theoretical attack on the Bitcoin network could take just minutes 😬

And given the current pace of technological progress, such capabilities could emerge as early as 2027-2028.

Scenarios like this may help explain the pressure on BTC’s market capitalization. Markets don’t like uncertainty. And they certainly don’t like questions around the security of an asset just a few years out.

🎙Earlier this week, our CPO Sergei Novikov hosted an AMA in X Space together with EarnPark🎙

We talked about what determines a token’s fate after TGE. Why tokenomics is once again becoming a key factor and why the market has grown far less tolerant of weak models.

As Sergei put it:

“Today, a token is no longer just about launch, marketing, or fundraising. The question is much tougher: will there be demand after TGE? A model simply doesn’t hold without supply discipline, real utility, and a clear value capture mechanism.”

Using $PARK as a case study, we looked at what’s already working and where extra caution is needed. The advantage is clear: the token is built around an existing product, not launched into a vacuum. But early sell pressure doesn’t disappear, and only real demand can absorb it 🖼️

Our main takeaway:

Good tokenomics isn’t about making a token look attractive at launch. It’s about making it economically meaningful after.

The recording is live🤯

Go grab the insights!

😎8Blocks × EasyMM: a strategic partnership 😎

We’re starting a partnership with EasyMM, a market-making team that works with liquidity and market dynamics.

This collaboration strengthens us exactly where things get tough — after launch. The market is full of teams that already released a token, but couldn’t hold the price. And in that moment, structure alone isn’t enough.

EasyMM knows how to bring traders’ attention back and rebuild market activity. We make sure the token has a real economic role behind that activity.

Put simply, attention needs to be earned. Meaning needs to be secured. You can boost visibility or rebuild the model. But the real impact happens when you do both together.