Today marks the 16th anniversary of Bitcoin, the world's first cryptocurrency. The first "genesis block" of the Bitcoin blockchain was created on January 3, 2009. On that day, Satoshi Nakamoto mined the first 50 BTC.
Satoshi left an important message in the Genesis block hash: The Times headline, βChancellor on brink of second bank bailout.β The headline was a reference to the way governments print money during economic crises, which devalues ββpeopleβs savings.
Later, Satoshi withdrew from the project, handing over control of the project to the community. Today, Bitcoin continues to develop.
Satoshi left an important message in the Genesis block hash: The Times headline, βChancellor on brink of second bank bailout.β The headline was a reference to the way governments print money during economic crises, which devalues ββpeopleβs savings.
Later, Satoshi withdrew from the project, handing over control of the project to the community. Today, Bitcoin continues to develop.
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1. Supply and Inflation
- The U.S. Federal Reserve can print unlimited amounts of money, which devalues existing dollars over time.
- Inflation erodes purchasing power, making savings in USD less reliable.
- Since 1971, when the gold standard was abandoned, the USD has lost over 85% of its purchasing power.
- Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins, ensuring scarcity.
- This deflationary model increases its value over time, rewarding holders.
- No central authority can manipulate its supply.
2. Transparency and Trust
- The U.S. government and Federal Reserve control the currency. Their decisions (e.g., quantitative easing) often lack transparency and disproportionately benefit the wealthy and powerful.
- Banking systems rely on intermediaries, increasing costs and risks of corruption or mismanagement.
- Operates on a decentralized blockchain, where every transaction is public and immutable.
- No reliance on intermediaries, reducing fraud and enhancing trust.
3. Opportunities and Wealth Creation
- Wealth creation with USD is often tied to traditional investments, subject to inflation and systemic risks.
- The rich benefit from asset inflation (stocks, real estate) while the poor suffer from wage stagnation and rising costs.
- Early adopters of BTC have seen massive returns. Holding BTC for long periods has consistently outperformed many traditional investments.
- It democratizes access to financial growth, allowing anyone to participate without gatekeepers like banks.
4. Global Reach and Accessibility
- While the USD is the global reserve currency, it excludes billions of unbanked individuals from the financial system.
- Cross-border transactions are slow, expensive, and subject to restrictions.
- Bitcoin allows borderless transactions with minimal fees and no intermediaries.
- It's accessible to anyone with internet access, empowering the unbanked.
5. Long-Term Sustainability:
- The USD's value depends on trust in the U.S. government. With growing debt (over $33 trillion) and monetary policy that prioritizes short-term fixes, the system faces potential collapse. Fiat currencies have historically failed; the average lifespan of a fiat currency is 27 years.
- Bitcoinβs decentralized nature makes it resistant to government interference and collapse. Its energy consumption is often criticized, but proponents argue itβs a feature, securing the network and incentivizing renewable energy use.
- Unlimited Printing: The Federal Reserveβs ability to print money benefits banks and governments but devalues individualsβ savings.
- Wealth Inequality: The USD-based financial system has widened the gap between the rich and the poor.
- Global Manipulation: The U.S. uses the USD as a geopolitical weapon, controlling other nations through sanctions and trade policies.
- Hidden Tax (Inflation): Inflation acts as a silent tax on the middle and lower classes, eroding wealth without explicit consent.
- Store of Value: Bitcoin is often called "digital gold" due to its scarcity and resilience to inflation.
- Censorship Resistance: No entity can block or reverse Bitcoin transactions, unlike bank accounts frozen by governments.
- Wealth Preservation: Over time, BTC has consistently increased in value against the USD, making it a safer long-term asset.
- Global Adoption: Countries like El Salvador have already adopted BTC as legal tender, showcasing its potential as an alternative to fiat currencies.
@education β Learn. Invest. Succeed.
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Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy and an active Bitcoin supporter and one of the world's largest Bitcoin investors, has announced that all of his BTC assets will be burned upon his death.
He stated that this move would be a proportionate contribution that would serve the interests of all cryptocurrency users.
@education β Learn. Invest. Succeed.
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- 36% (360 million tokens) After 3 months, 500,000 tokens will be unlocked every day for 24 months.
- 18% (180 million tokens) 250,000 tokens will be unlocked every day for 24 months after 6 months.
- 18% (180 million tokens) 250,000 tokens will be unlocked every day for 24 months after 12 months.
- 10% (100 million tokens) to ensure liquidity.
- 10% (100 million tokens) went public.
- 4% (40 million tokens) 55.5 thousand tokens will be unlocked every day for 24 months after 12 months.
- 2% (20 million tokens) 27.7 thousand tokens will be unlocked every day for 24 months after 12 months.
- 2% (20 million tokens) 27.7 thousand tokens will be unlocked every day for 24 months after 12 months.
β οΈ Market capitalization at current price ($39) is $7.8 billion.
βοΈThe official website of the token states that it is not an investment object and that it is intended to support Trump.
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β Rug pulls are a common scam in the cryptocurrency world, where a projectβs creators abandon it after collecting investors' funds. Influencers often play a key role in promoting these schemes, especially on fast-growing networks like Solana.
Project Creation:
β Scammers create a new token or NFT collection on the Solana network, leveraging its low fees and high speed. The project usually promises innovative features, huge returns, or exclusive benefits.
Influencers with large followings promote the project, claiming itβs the βnext big thing.β They may create hype through social media posts, flashy marketing campaigns, and partnerships. Some influencers may genuinely believe in the project, while others are knowingly complicit.
Once people start buying the token, the scammers add liquidity to decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to boost trading activity. They may even fake trading volume to attract more investors.
β At the peak of the hype, scammers withdraw all liquidity or stop supporting the project entirely, causing the tokenβs value to plummet. Investors are left with worthless tokens, while scammers vanish with the funds.
Research the Team β Look for verified profiles of the projectβs creators and developers.
Be cautious if the team is anonymous or uses stock photos for their profiles.
Check the Smart Contract β On Solana, use tools like Solscan to review the tokenβs smart contract. Verify whether the contract allows developers to withdraw liquidity or mint unlimited tokens.
Community and Roadmap β Assess the communityβs engagement on platforms like Discord and Twitter.
Check if the project has a clear, realistic roadmap with achievable milestones.
Avoid FOMOβ Donβt rush into investments due to hype or fear of missing out.
Scammers rely on urgency to pressure you into making quick decisions.
@education β Learn. Invest. Succeed.
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β How is the Fear and Greed Index measured?
β Volatility - sudden price changes are a sign of fear
β Market velocity and volume - if trading volume exceeds the long-term average, it is a sign of greed
β Social Media Analysis - Unusual Activity Levels on Twitter Show Greed
β Bitcoin dominance - Bitcoin's rise is a sign of fear, while its decline is a sign of greed
β Google Trends - Search volume for Bitcoin indicates market interest.
βοΈThe index evaluates the market taking into account the above indicators.
β Volatility - sudden price changes are a sign of fear
β Market velocity and volume - if trading volume exceeds the long-term average, it is a sign of greed
β Social Media Analysis - Unusual Activity Levels on Twitter Show Greed
β Bitcoin dominance - Bitcoin's rise is a sign of fear, while its decline is a sign of greed
β Google Trends - Search volume for Bitcoin indicates market interest.
βοΈThe index evaluates the market taking into account the above indicators.
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β Bitcoin price continues to move according to the Wyckoff method .
Bitcoin is currently in the "recovery" phase before the "bull run" .
π The market consists of the following psychological stages :
β Rebound β Investors may engage in speculative trading because they believe the market will continue to rise.
β Bull market β Investors adopt a buy-and -hold strategy as prices rise.
β Bubble β A period of euphoria . In this cycle, "retail traders" are willing to enter the market even if it means taking out loans. The fear of missing out on the market (FOMO) is in full swing.
β Price correction β The market recovers one last time, as if everything is fine, before prices fall.
β Crash β A period of anxiety, denial , and fear . Investors don't understand why the price is falling. They don't accept the reality that it's temporary and the market will rise again.
β Bear Market β Surrender and Depression . Absolute pessimism of investors.
Bitcoin is currently in the "recovery" phase before the "bull run" .
π The market consists of the following psychological stages :
β Rebound β Investors may engage in speculative trading because they believe the market will continue to rise.
β Bull market β Investors adopt a buy-and -hold strategy as prices rise.
β Bubble β A period of euphoria . In this cycle, "retail traders" are willing to enter the market even if it means taking out loans. The fear of missing out on the market (FOMO) is in full swing.
β Price correction β The market recovers one last time, as if everything is fine, before prices fall.
β Crash β A period of anxiety, denial , and fear . Investors don't understand why the price is falling. They don't accept the reality that it's temporary and the market will rise again.
β Bear Market β Surrender and Depression . Absolute pessimism of investors.
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DeepSeek used an innovative method of training artificial intelligence using unused video cards. As a result, it created an open-source and powerful model for only $10 million. In terms of price, it is much cheaper than OpenAI: $2.19 for 1 million tokens at DeepSeek, and $60 at OpenAI. Most interestingly, DeepSeek can run completely autonomously on smartphones (iPhone 16 or Android). This indicates that the importance of video cards has decreased.
Why is this important?
This incident makes us think about the future of the field of artificial intelligence and the huge "bubble" surrounding it.
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Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has criticized the process of listing crypto assets on his exchange. He said that the time gap between the listing announcement and the token launch allows users to buy an asset on a DEX (decentralized exchange) and then sell it on Binance.
However, in the wake of recent events, it is CZ itself that has come under fire. Binance recently listed the Test Token (TST) of video meme platform Four Meme. Surprisingly, TST was launched on the spot and futures markets at the same time.
CZ denied responsibility for the listing, saying that the Binance team had severed all ties to the project. However, Zhao was troubled by the fact that the TST token has an official website and that it features the Binance logo. After he expressed his opinion on the matter, the website and logo have already been changed.
As a result, the TST token behaved according to the typical Binance listing scenario: initially there was a sharp increase, and then the price fell by 70%.
However, in the wake of recent events, it is CZ itself that has come under fire. Binance recently listed the Test Token (TST) of video meme platform Four Meme. Surprisingly, TST was launched on the spot and futures markets at the same time.
CZ denied responsibility for the listing, saying that the Binance team had severed all ties to the project. However, Zhao was troubled by the fact that the TST token has an official website and that it features the Binance logo. After he expressed his opinion on the matter, the website and logo have already been changed.
As a result, the TST token behaved according to the typical Binance listing scenario: initially there was a sharp increase, and then the price fell by 70%.
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The mining difficulty on the Bitcoin network increased by 5.6%, reaching 114.7 trillion (T).
This means that miners would need to perform 114.7 trillion calculations to earn a block reward of 3,125 BTC.
Currently, to obtain 3,125 Bitcoins from each block, the Bitcoin protocol requires executing the cryptographic hash function (SHA-256) that many times.
While Bitcoin mining increases security on the network, it also affects miners' income.
The Hash Ribbon indicator shows that some miners are ceasing operations due to low profitability.
Historically, such "surrender" of miners has been marked by a bottom in the Bitcoin price.
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How long is left until the offseason?
You can see in the image that the "Altcoin Season" index has recently fallen to its lowest levels since June 2023
Altcoins have been very weak and sluggish for the past 3 months, but on the flip side, we are at a time when many altcoins have lost a lot of value compared to bitcoin.
So this could be a good opportunity, let's say we only had bitcoins at the time and now our deposit is 5x profitable, it would be wise to look for opportunities in altcoins with part of our profit
But we only invested in altcoins, next time we will try to invest in more bitcoinsπ€
Bitcoin dominance is above 60%, if BTC recovers, altcoins could see a sharp rise
Therefore, in the coming months, it may be more profitable to accumulate altcoins that have a strong community, are traded in large volumes, and are cheap compared to BTC...
Note that it says "ACCUMULATE", not buy one at a time. It may take months for us to recover from the crash we saw in the market a few weeks ago, so if we plan accordingly, we won't get bored.
I didn't write this to give hope, the era of altcoins will also come!
You can see in the image that the "Altcoin Season" index has recently fallen to its lowest levels since June 2023
Altcoins have been very weak and sluggish for the past 3 months, but on the flip side, we are at a time when many altcoins have lost a lot of value compared to bitcoin.
So this could be a good opportunity, let's say we only had bitcoins at the time and now our deposit is 5x profitable, it would be wise to look for opportunities in altcoins with part of our profit
But we only invested in altcoins, next time we will try to invest in more bitcoins
Bitcoin dominance is above 60%, if BTC recovers, altcoins could see a sharp rise
Therefore, in the coming months, it may be more profitable to accumulate altcoins that have a strong community, are traded in large volumes, and are cheap compared to BTC...
Note that it says "ACCUMULATE", not buy one at a time. It may take months for us to recover from the crash we saw in the market a few weeks ago, so if we plan accordingly, we won't get bored.
I didn't write this to give hope, the era of altcoins will also come!
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The markets are tense as you can see! But...
π€‘ Trump is still undecided on tariffs, but the market took a breather yesterday after Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested a deal was possible.πΊπΈ The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) in the US had previously fallen, fueling fears of a recession, but today the PMI rose again, giving people some reassurance.πΊπΈ Today it was revealed that more than $241 billion was withdrawn from the US government's accounts, which is not surprising given that this money is being added to the market to increase liquidity.π©πͺ On the other hand, Germany is also allocating (or rather printing) new money to support the economy.π )π¨π³ China has also started to give more money to banks and increase liquidity
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Gold and other precious metals are the lowest-risk assets, so they are acting as a refuge for those seeking tranquility and peace from the fear of these days.
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With oil prices falling, demand for precious metals (gold, silver) remains high
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However, gold and silver ETFs are still seeing gains.
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Important US jobs data will be released on Friday. It would be nice if everything turned out well and the market rose again.
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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says markets will be very volatile this year, but downside could be an opportunity.
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BTC dominance is currently at 61.36% . The 61.50% level is a significant resistance point, and if this level is successfully broken, the next target could be around 64% .
However, if the price breaks below this resistance, the nearest support area is at the FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone. If this zone fails to hold, the next strong support is at 58.50% , and the price is likely to decline to this level.
π Conclusion:
- Consolidation above 61.50% - there is a high probability of continued growth.
- Break of the FVG zone - the price may drop and test the 58.50% level.
Traders should monitor these key levels and set strategies accordingly.
πΌ If BTC dominance increases β Altcoins will weaken relative to Bitcoin, meaning most capital will flow into BTC. Altcoins may decline or slow down their growth.
π½ When BTC dominance falls β Altcoins will strengthen, meaning traders will exit BTC and invest more in altcoins. The potential for growth in the altcoin market increases.
However, if the price breaks below this resistance, the nearest support area is at the FVG (Fair Value Gap) zone. If this zone fails to hold, the next strong support is at 58.50% , and the price is likely to decline to this level.
π Conclusion:
- Consolidation above 61.50% - there is a high probability of continued growth.
- Break of the FVG zone - the price may drop and test the 58.50% level.
Traders should monitor these key levels and set strategies accordingly.
πΌ If BTC dominance increases β Altcoins will weaken relative to Bitcoin, meaning most capital will flow into BTC. Altcoins may decline or slow down their growth.
π½ When BTC dominance falls β Altcoins will strengthen, meaning traders will exit BTC and invest more in altcoins. The potential for growth in the altcoin market increases.
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Bitcoin price has shown a βsell the newsβ pattern despite the long-awaited creation of the US strategic reserve. The biggest disappointment is that the government does not plan to buy Bitcoin through the market at current prices.
After the announcement, the price fell from $91,000 to $85,000, but soon managed to recover to the $88,000 level.
Bitwise states that the main goal is not to buy Bitcoins from all over the world, but rather:
β Other countries may follow the path of the US,
β The possibility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other regulators banning Bitcoin has decreased,
β Government reserves, pension funds, and investment funds can buy Bitcoin,
β Most importantly, the possibility of a 200,000 BTC pressure on the market has disappeared.
After the announcement, the price fell from $91,000 to $85,000, but soon managed to recover to the $88,000 level.
Bitwise states that the main goal is not to buy Bitcoins from all over the world, but rather:
β Other countries may follow the path of the US,
β The possibility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other regulators banning Bitcoin has decreased,
β Government reserves, pension funds, and investment funds can buy Bitcoin,
β Most importantly, the possibility of a 200,000 BTC pressure on the market has disappeared.
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The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve β includes the possibility of buying more BTC in the future. That is, it is "fiscally neutral" and can be purchased again at the expense of the following extrabudgetary funds, in addition to tax revenues:
- $39 billion from the Currency Stabilization Fund;
- $160 billion from SDR trading;
- $800 billion from the revaluation of gold certificates;
- and so on.
Digital asset stock β These are mostly altcoins and have no possibility of further redemption other than confiscation or criminal forfeiture.
Currently, the US government has 198,109 BTC on its balance sheet , but 94,000 BTC of it must be returned to the Bitfinex exchange in accordance with a US court order. These Bitcoins were stolen by hackers from the Bitfinex exchange in 2016, and the US government confiscated them from the hackers. Yesterday, D. Trump publicly announced that the US government has 200K BTC, now they will be audited and the question of bringing it to 200K remains open after they know the actual reserve.
Most importantly, the US has started a strategic reserve. It's China's turn and other countries. They also have a lot of them... So a BTC race between countries may begin.
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