🇺🇸 19 days to the US midterms. Here's Bitcoin after the last three.

BTC 12 months after election day:
2014: $330 → $408 (+24%)
2018: $6,448 → $9,345 (+45%)
2022: $18,550 → $35,640 (+92%)

The road wasn't smooth: BTC first fell 48% after 2014 and 51% after 2018.

🔵 Polymarket on Nov 3:
• Democrats win the House: 90.5%
• Democrats win the Senate: 63.5%
• Republicans sweep: 8.5%

Trump's $5,000 checks need a Republican Congress. The market gives that 8.5%.

👇 Track it in DropsBot👀

➕ Midterms odds 🔵
➕ BTC 🚀

🚨 MSCI just set the date. Bitcoin treasuries can be kicked out of its indexes.

New rules apply after the close on Nov 30. The list of flagged firms drops on Nov 11. In MSCI's May test run, two big names were on it:

🔥 Strategy: 848,249 BTC ($69.65B), +$5.30B in profit
🔥 Metaplanet: 44,000 BTC ($3.61B), −$864M underwater

Metaplanet paid ~$96.9K per coin. BTC trades at $82.1K.

Current members get a buffer: they're out only if they fail the screen in two annual filings in a row. That makes Nov 11 the day to watch.

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➕ BTC 🚀

📉 CoreWeave lost a quarter in a week. Nvidia lost 7%.

The AI trade had its worst week since June. The debt-heavy names that buy Nvidia's chips fell 3–4× harder than Nvidia itself.

Oct 9 → Oct 16 on Hyperliquid:
CoreWeave: −26%
Nebius: −25%
SK Hynix: −25%
IREN: −23%
🟩 Nvidia: −7%

• The trigger: CoreWeave's reported ~$50B debt load. Bonds it sold in June at 9.7% now reportedly yield ~15%.

• 🔵 Polymarket: 14.5% CoreWeave files for bankruptcy by end of 2027. 16.5% the AI bubble bursts by mid-2027.

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➕ Track CoreWeave bankruptcy odds
➕ NVDA

💧TradFi

🛢 Brent touched $110. Hyperliquid traded more oil than Solana.

Oil perps did $433M in 24 hours, 16% of all TradFi volume on Hyperliquid:

🛢 Brent: $210M traded, $107 (+4.1%)
🛢 WTI: $223M traded, $98.9 (+3.3%)

That's more than 🟣 SOL ($282M), 🚀 HYPE ($275M), and 🟩 Nvidia + Tesla combined ($263M). Only the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 perps traded more.

🔵 Polymarket: 82% WTI prints $100 in October (58.5% a day ago), 21.5% for $110. A new all-time high ($147) by Dec 31: 13.5%.

Oil futures close for the weekend. Hyperliquid doesn't.

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➕ BRENT 🛢
➕ WTI 🛢
➕ Track WTI odds

📈 CME lists UNI and BCH today. 6 of the 9 coins before them were lower a month later.

30 days after the CME debut:
🚀 BTC (Dec 2017): −42%
💥 ETH (Feb 2021): +11%
🟣 SOL (Mar 2025): +4%
🚀 XRP (May 2025): −11%

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➕ UNI 🚀
➕ BCH 💥

🟩 Bitmine is 63K ETH from 5% of Ethereum. Then it stops buying.

Tom Lee's Bitmine holds 6.04M ETH, 4.9% of supply. Lee says buying stops at 5%.

At this pace, Ethereum's biggest buyer is done in 5 weeks.

💧 Portfolio "Bitmine Ethereum Treasury"

📈 Every Bitcoin crash since 2011 ended on the same line.

Michaël van de Poppe sees $1M Bitcoin this cycle.
The chart he shared: all five crash bottoms since 2011 sit on one line. By 2030 it is at $193K. His math: a $1M BTC top, then a −80% crash, lands right on it.

Who calls $1M BTC by 2030:
• Cathie Wood: $1.5M
• Jack Dorsey, Brian Armstrong, Arthur Hayes: $1M
• Michael Saylor: $1M is "inevitable"

The line gets to $193K by 2030 and to $1M in 2037.

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➕ BTC 🚀

📈 Solana gets 85× faster on Wednesday.
SOL is still −64% from its ATH.

Consensus switches on Oct 21: transactions go final in ~150 ms instead of ~12.8 seconds. Ethereum still takes about 15 minutes.

🔵 Polymarket: 67.5% odds SOL dips to $100 in October,
21.5% it hits $120.

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➕ SOL 🟣

📈 JPMorgan ranks Bitcoin #1 for the next 10–15 years.

For the first time, BTC is in JPMorgan's long-term forecast. It expects 10% a year, more than any other asset.

Others on the list, per year:
• Private equity: 9.8%
• US large caps: 7.5%
• Gold: 5.5%

JPMorgan also expects Bitcoin to swing 3x more than gold.

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➕ BTC 🚀

📈 Five weeks after the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, Bitcoin is up 7% and gold is down 6%.

On Sept 16, 2026 the Fed raised its rate by 0.25% to 3.75–4.00%. Higher rates usually hurt crypto and tech stocks, yet Bitcoin beat both stocks and gold.

🔵 16 of 18 Fed officials expect at least one more hike by the end of 2026. The next decision is on Oct 28, and traders have bet $50M on it on Polymarket (still open):

• Rates stay the same: 85.5%
• Another 0.25% hike: 14.5%
• A cut: under 1%

👇 Get a DropsBot alert when BTC moves or the Fed odds shift👀

➕ BTC 🚀
➕ Track Fed odds

🦅 BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF just had its biggest day of 2026: +$665M. Ethereum ETFs bled for a 5th day.

IBIT hasn't had a day this big since October 2025.

Spot 🟪Ethereum ETFs have lost $389M since Oct 14.

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➕ BTC 🚀
➕ ETH 🟪

📈 A year ago Ethereum was worth more than AMD. Now AMD is worth 3 Ethereums.

Oct 2025: ETH ~$480B vs AMD ~$388B.
Today: AMD $902B vs ETH $298B.

The chipmaker's stock is up 132% in a year. ETH is down 39%.

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➕ ETH
➕ AMD

💧TradFi on DropsTab

📈 82 crypto projects that shut down this year had raised $727M.

That's VC rounds and token sales of 46 of them; the other 36 never disclosed a raise of their own. The biggest:
• Sophon — $73.3M
• Neon EVM — $45M
• Movement Labs — $41.4M
• Blast — $20M

a16z and Polychain backed 6 of these projects each. Coinbase Ventures backed 8.

💧DropsTab Funding Rounds

🦅 Bitcoin dropped back to ~$81.5K, the average price US ETF buyers paid.

Spot 🚀BTC ETFs bought $1.08B from Oct 19 to 21. On Oct 22 the price slid to $81.4K and $635M left in one day.

The largest BTC long on 🚀Hyperliquid sits on the same line: $101M at 12x, entry $81,993, liquidation $69.7K.

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➕ BTC ➕ Follow #1 BTC long

🟢 Sam Altman's OpenAI: $1.25 trillion. His Worldcoin: −95%, and a $53M unlock is coming.

📈 OpenAI is raising $30B at a $1.25T valuation. In March it was $852B.

📉 Worldcoin (WLD) is the other one:
Top: $11.90
Now: $0.54
🔓 Next 30 days: $53M of new WLD unlocks

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➕ WLD 🔓

💧Worldcoin unlocks on DropsTab