🟢 Bitcoin's Current Market Position and Technical Analysis

📉 Bitcoin's price fluctuates between $84,968 and $85,168 with a market cap of $1.68 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $10.64 billion. It has experienced an intraday range of $1,551 and is currently 21.7% below its all-time high from January 20, 2025.

📊 On the daily chart, Bitcoin is recovering from a descending trend that started near $99,508 and bottomed around $76,680. It is now in a consolidation phase with slight upward momentum. The price is just above key support at $83,000, with stronger support at $76,700. Resistance is noted between $88,000 and $89,000. A bullish daily candle closing above $86,000 could lead to a swing entry targeting $89,000 or more.

🔄 From a four-hour perspective, Bitcoin has recovered from $81,138 to $87,470 before entering a corrective phase. Despite this pullback, it has formed higher lows, indicating ongoing bullish pressure. Resistance is at $87,470 and support around $83,500. A breakout above resistance with sustained volume could lead to a short-term climb towards $88,500 or higher.

📈 The one-hour chart shows Bitcoin forming an upward channel supported by increasing buy-side volume. The price has risen from $83,682 to a high of $85,233. Maintaining a position above $85,000 is crucial for sustaining bullish sentiment. An intraday retest of $85,233 could trigger momentum towards $86,000 to $86,500. However, a breakdown below $84,000 on increasing sell volume would undermine bullish setups.

⚖️ Oscillator signals present a mixed technical picture. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 48, stochastic at 71, and the commodity channel index (CCI) at 13, all reflecting neutral momentum. The average directional index (ADX) at 32 suggests a trend is present but lacks strong conviction. However, the momentum indicator at 4,154 and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level at -1,680 are showing bullish signals.

📉 Moving averages are sending divergent signals depending on the timeframe. Short-term averages suggest positive factors, while mid-range signals turn bearish. Longer-term averages skew bearish except for the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which still supports the price. This indicates that while immediate momentum is upward, the broader market structure is still unwinding from prior highs.

📏 Fibonacci retracement levels reinforce this technical complexity. Price reactions are likely around the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels, offering opportunities for tactical entries during pullbacks. Stop-losses should be placed beneath the 78.6% or 100% retracement thresholds to manage downside risk.

💪 Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin maintains support above $85,000 and secures a decisive close above $85,233 with volume acceleration, a retest of $86,500 to $88,500 becomes highly probable. Bullish signals on the momentum indicator and MACD support a continuation towards $89,000.

🐻 Bearish Scenario: If Bitcoin fails to hold the $84,000 support level under rising sell volume, upward momentum would be invalidated, and the price could revert to lower support zones around $83,000 and potentially $81,138. The majority of long-term moving averages are still aligned in sell territory, indicating that macro bearish pressure persists.

🇰🇷 South Korea Urges Google To Restrict Access To Unlicensed Crypto Exchanges ⚠️

Google has blacklisted 17 unlicensed crypto exchanges after receiving a request from South Korea to restrict user access to these platforms.

👉 Read more

🛑 Bitcoin's Current Market Analysis: Bearish Sentiment Prevails

📉 Bitcoin's price stands at $85,288 with a market cap of $1.69 trillion and a 24-hour trade volume of $30.19 billion. The past day saw a trading range of $84,784 to $87,723, indicating market volatility. Technical indicators suggest a bearish sentiment with limited bullish momentum.

📊 On the daily chart, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after a pullback from a high of $99,508. Support is at $76,600 while resistance is between $88,000 and $90,000. The declining volume during this phase indicates weak buying interest. A break above $88,000 with increasing volume could shift sentiment to bullish, whereas a drop below $76,600 may continue the downtrend.

🔍 The 4-hour chart shows sustained bearish pressure after a decline from a high of $88,772. Immediate support is at $83,682 with resistance near $88,772. Sellers are in control, as seen from consecutive lower highs. The MACD level of -590.2 suggests a potential buying opportunity, but caution is advised due to negative momentum. If the price can reclaim $86,000 and maintain strength, a bullish reversal could occur; otherwise, further losses may follow if it breaks below $83,682.

📉 The 1-hour chart indicates a short-term downtrend with support at $84,784 and minor resistance at $87,755. Recent price action shows sellers remain dominant, and any recovery attempts face significant resistance. Volume is subdued, limiting the chances of a strong rebound. Short-term traders might consider short positions on breakdowns below $84,000; however, a sustained move above $85,500 could trigger a potential reversal.

⚖️ Oscillators present a neutral outlook with the RSI at 47.3 and the stochastic oscillator at 71.2 indicating indecision. The CCI at 65.3 emphasizes a lack of conviction from buyers or sellers. The ADX at 22.6 suggests weak trend strength. Given these mixed readings, traders may seek additional confirmation before committing to directional positions.

📉 Moving averages strongly favor a bearish stance with both short-term and long-term indicators providing negative signals. The 10-period EMA and SMA stand at $85,871 and $85,934 respectively, indicating downward momentum. Until Bitcoin decisively reclaims higher levels, the dominance of sell signals highlights ongoing bearish sentiment.

📉 Fibonacci retracement levels provide additional insights into potential support and resistance. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently near the 61.8% retracement level at $85,350 a key point often regarded as a significant support zone. A break below this level may lead to a further decline toward the $76,600 level representing a full retracement of the previous upward move.

🔮 Overall, Bitcoin’s technical outlook remains extremely cautious. While oscillators show mixed signals, the dominance of bearish indicators from moving averages suggests a continuation of the downward trend. A breakout above $88,000 with strong volume could shift sentiment toward bullish, while a failure to maintain support at $84,000 may accelerate further losses. Traders are advised to monitor key levels closely and remain adaptable to changing market conditions.

🧠 Building Sustainable Value in Crypto + AI

🌐 Alec Goh, Head of HTX Ventures, emphasizes the transformative potential of the convergence between AI Agents and Web3 but warns that the industry must avoid past mistakes to achieve long-term value. He reflects on his experiences through various market cycles in the digital asset space, noting that while some were driven by technological advancements, others were merely speculative.

📉 Goh recalls the ICO boom of 2017 and the NFT explosion of 2021, where speculation outpaced product development, leading to swift corrections. He draws parallels to the recent surge in AI Agent tokens, which attracted significant capital but struggled to maintain user engagement as investor enthusiasm waned.

🔍 However, Goh highlights a pivotal moment in Q4 2024 when Deepseek introduced a reinforcement learning model that eliminated the need for human-labeled data. This breakthrough made it feasible to deploy AI agents across Web3 with scalability and adaptability, positioning them as essential infrastructure for a decentralized financial layer.

⚠️ Despite this progress, Goh expresses concern that the industry may confuse momentum with maturity. While promising frameworks and applications are emerging, many AI Agent projects still prioritize speculation over sustainability. He warns that if this trend continues, the industry could face another cycle of capital flight and unmet expectations.

💡 Goh identifies real use cases for AI agents in simplifying DeFi strategies, enhancing governance systems, and enabling cross-chain automation. However, he stresses the need for consistent execution, user retention, and functional token economics to realize these opportunities.

🔍 To move forward, Goh advocates for rigorous scrutiny of AI Agent projects similar to that applied to DeFi protocols. He emphasizes the importance of clear project frameworks, real-world usage, and sustainable revenue models. Additionally, he calls for the development of robust infrastructure to support AI agents on-chain.

🤝 Finally, Goh urges the industry to foster a culture of iteration and transparency. While not every project will succeed on the first attempt, those that do will shape the future of Web3. He concludes that the convergence of AI and crypto is a necessary evolution that requires a focus on delivering value rather than merely capturing attention.

Seedizens, SEED Go’s launched, kicking off Web3 gaming in the real world. You can now farm $SLOVE - $3 to $30/day potential. Confused? Alex got you:

Getting Started is Simple:
✅ Get a SEED Mon: Need at least one - grab it from the marketplace if you’re Mon-less.
✅ Open the SEED App: Go to Discovery, find the nearest tree on the map, and send your Mons hunting.
✅ Earn $SLOVE: Use your NFT Mon and a bit of $SLOVE to stack more $SLOVE.
✅ Calculated Potential Earnings: Add your Mon stats into the dashboard.

Why earning $SLOVE is looking pretty sweet? Let’s do a quick math:

🔻Mon Price: 3 SUI (Common), 40 SUI (Rare)
🔻Team Setup: 8 Common + 1 Rare = 64 SUI (~$150).
🔻$SLOVE Price: ~$0.16.
🔻Earnings at Lv9: 114 $SLOVE/day = ~$18/day.
🔻Break-Even: ~14 days (with upgrades).

💡 Your strategy decides the bag - could be juicy profits! Alex is handing you this earning shot, don’t sleep on it, fam!

⚡️ The Lucky Crypto Wheel for 7 $BTC Welcome Bonus is LIVE! ▶️

👇 Use your chance to hit the maximum reward from 1xBit, 100% anonymous crypto sportsbook and casino 🤑

RULES:

✅ NO KYC
✅ 40+ supported crypto
✅ Multi-currency account
✅ Betting, slots, live-casino games

🍀 Try your luck today: SPIN TO WIN 👈

🇺🇸 The U.S. as a Leader in Crypto and Stablecoin Regulation

🌍 In a recent interview, Heath Tarbert, former CFTC Chair and Circle President, emphasized that the world is looking to the U.S. for guidance on crypto and stablecoin regulation. Despite the U.S. lagging behind due to previous administration's stance, Circle believes there is still an opportunity for the U.S. to lead in this area.

🗣 Tarbert acknowledged the U.S.'s delay in establishing a regulatory framework but stressed the importance of doing so to maintain the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency. He stated,

The rest of the world is yearning for US regulation... they’re saying, ‘When are you guys going to get your regulation done? Because we’re eager to see it, and we want to be able to grant reciprocity.

📊 He pointed out that regulating stablecoins is more straightforward than other digital assets. Three key elements for stablecoins include: a reputable issuer, safe and liquid reserves, and transparency in reserves. As initiatives in the Senate and House progress, Tarbert advocates for regulating stablecoins as a separate asset class to avoid complicating the process with other market structure legislation.

🪙 Yescoin: Revolutionizing Cryptocurrency Investment through Strategic Partnerships

🌐 Investing in cryptocurrency has become increasingly complex due to speculative tokens and abandoned roadmaps. However, Yescoin, a Telegram-based Web3 platform, is changing this narrative by offering strategic partnerships with industry influencers to support its self-sustaining ecosystem products.

🤝 Yescoin's collaborations with leading exchanges and infrastructure providers address critical issues of liquidity, trust, and market coverage. For instance, Crypto exposes Yescoin to a vast user base of 80 million retail and institutional traders. OKX and Bitget ensure smoother token listings and reduced post-launch volatility risk, accounting for 15% of global crypto exchange liquidity. Additionally, Mantle provides Ethereum-compatible infrastructure for easy onboarding to DeFi protocols.

🎮 Yescoin boasts a functional ecosystem with gamified mini-apps, ad marketplace integration, and staking options. These features have enabled the platform to achieve 500,000 monthly active users and 25% month-over-month growth. In contrast, similar platforms like Axie Infinity took much longer to reach comparable numbers.

💰 Yescoin's unique revenue model addresses crypto's sustainability problem through on-chain advertising and deflationary mechanics. This approach creates perpetual buy pressure and contributes to a deflationary environment. Quarterly buybacks and burns funded by advertising revenue further stabilize prices during bearish phases, reducing dependency on token sales.

📊 With impressive user metrics such as 180,000 daily active users and a 38% weekly retention rate, Yescoin outperforms many competitors. The platform's integration with Telegram facilitates participation without requiring additional downloads.

⚠️ Despite its strong pre-launch traction, Yescoin faces challenges such as scaling infrastructure and regulatory scrutiny in the EU. However, its diversified revenue streams, active products, and strategic partnerships position it well for success in the crypto market takeover in 2025.

🕵️‍♂️ Unveiling Bitcoin's Creator: A Legal Battle for Transparency

📜 Attorney James Murphy has initiated a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), demanding the release of documents that could reveal the identity of bitcoin's mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. This legal action was prompted by DHS's failure to respond to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request submitted by Murphy earlier this year.

🗣 The request was based on a statement made by DHS Special Agent Rana Saoud during a 2019 presentation. She claimed that her agency had conducted an interview with Nakamoto, asserting that

DHS knows the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto.

Murphy argues that the public has a right to access this information, especially given the increasing government interest in bitcoin.

📍 The lawsuit references Saoud's remarks at the OffshoreAlert Conference North America, where she detailed a DHS mission to California that involved an in-person interview with four individuals connected to bitcoin's creation. Saoud reportedly stated,

He wasn’t alone in creating this. There were 3 other people. And they sat down and met with them and talked to them to find out how this actually works and what their reason for it was.

However, despite these claims, the DHS has not released any related interview transcripts or internal communications.

⚖️ Murphy emphasizes the significance of these records, particularly in light of recent government actions regarding bitcoin. He pointed out that

These records are immensely important, as federal and state officials are currently taking steps to investigate potential investment in bitcoin.

His FOIA request and subsequent lawsuit come at a time when bitcoin is gaining traction as a reserve asset among public institutions. The U.S. Senate is contemplating legislation for a bitcoin reserve managed by the U.S. Treasury, while around 20 states are considering bills to permit public funds to be invested in bitcoin.

📈 Murphy also highlights the growing adoption of bitcoin by both public and private entities, alongside an executive order from President Donald Trump establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. He argues that transparency is essential in this evolving landscape. With the DHS and Immigration and Customs Enforcement yet to respond to his request, Murphy is seeking court intervention to compel a response.

💰 Robert Kiyosaki's Urgent Bitcoin Warning Amidst Dollar Decline

⚠️ Robert Kiyosaki, the renowned author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has issued a serious warning about the diminishing stability of the U.S. dollar and the global financial system. He urges investors to consider bitcoin as a protective measure for their wealth.

📉 On April 13, Kiyosaki highlighted several indicators of instability in traditional financial markets: rising gold prices, increasing demand for silver, and the growing prominence of bitcoin. He stated,

Please listen to gold, silver, and bitcoin. What are they telling you? Gold is at an all time high, demand for silver is exploding, and bitcoin is roaring.

💔 He framed the current situation as a systemic collapse, accusing central banks of facilitating a significant erosion of wealth. Kiyosaki specifically pointed out institutions like the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the U.S. Federal Reserve as key players in this deliberate economic restructuring. He claimed,

The corrupt and crooked U.S. dollar is being wiped out.

💪 In light of these challenges, Kiyosaki encourages individuals to invest in tangible, non-sovereign assets such as gold, silver, and bitcoin. He asserted,

Those who take action and acquire real gold, silver, and bitcoin may come out of this premeditated disaster… the new rich and the new leaders of the world.

🎓 Additionally, Kiyosaki criticized the traditional education system and its effectiveness in preparing individuals for financial independence. He reiterated his long-standing support for decentralized assets, particularly bitcoin, which he describes as "the people’s money." He believes that while a fundamental reset of global financial systems is not yet imminent, it is already underway.

🇺🇸 Bitdeer: A Shift Towards American-Made Bitcoin Mining Equipment

🔄 Bitdeer, a publicly listed bitcoin mining company, is set to manufacture its mining equipment in the United States. This decision is influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies.

🛠 In response to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, bitcoin mining rig producers are adjusting their operational strategies. Bitdeer plans to navigate these trade barriers through self-mining and domestic hardware production.

Our plan going forward is to prioritize our own self-mining,” said LaBerge.

This means that Bitdeer will depend on its in-house mining machines to independently generate bitcoin.

🇺🇸 Domestic competitor Auradine is already producing proprietary ASIC bitcoin miners in the United States. Bitdeer (Nasdaq: BTDR) will begin U.S.-based manufacturing in the latter half of 2025.

This is something we’ve been planning for a long time,” LaBerge stated. “We want to bring jobs and manufacturing back to America.

🔍 However, the broader mining sector remains uncertain about the future of the tariff structure.

The entire industry is trying to get clarity on how these tariffs might apply,” he explained.

💰 Ripple's Strategic Leap into Traditional Finance with Hidden Road Acquisition

🚀 Ripple has made a significant move in traditional finance by acquiring Hidden Road, a global prime brokerage firm, for $1.25 billion. This acquisition has received FINRA approval, allowing Ripple to enhance institutional access to fixed income markets.

📈 Hidden Road's subsidiary, Hidden Road Partners CIV US LLC, has been authorized by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority to operate as a broker-dealer. This designation enables the firm to expand its fixed income prime brokerage platform, which includes services like Fixed Income Repo & Global Funding. The company stated,

As a broker-dealer, Hidden Road will now be able to provide new and existing institutional clients with a full suite of regulatory-compliant prime brokerage, clearing, and financing services in fixed income assets.

🗣 Noel Kimmel, president of Hidden Road, emphasized the importance of this milestone for the firm's growth in capital markets. He said,

Our broker-dealer registration is a significant step in the development of Hidden Road’s fixed income prime brokerage platform and bolsters our capabilities in traditional financial markets.

Kimmel added that being a FINRA member will allow them to offer their technology-driven fixed income services to a broader range of institutional clients.

🌍 Ripple's acquisition of Hidden Road positions it as the first digital asset firm to own a global, multi-asset prime broker. This move aims to enhance Ripple's cross-border payment and custody services. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse remarked,

We are at an inflection point for the next phase of digital asset adoption – the U.S. market is effectively open for the first time due to the regulatory overhang of the former SEC coming to an end.

🔗 Ripple CTO David Schwartz described the deal as transformative for the XRP Ledger and XRP itself. He noted that XRP could support part of Hidden Road’s daily $10 billion clearing volume and 50 million transactions. The partnership will integrate blockchain-based settlement and use XRP and RLUSD for collateral and cross-asset trades, aiming to establish Hidden Road as the largest non-bank prime broker globally.

📰 Latam Insights Encore: President Milei's Bold Move to Control the Dollar in Argentina

🇦🇷 Last week, Argentina's government, led by President Javier Milei, took a significant step by securing an additional credit line from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This move aims to open the economy to foreign investment and lift the "cepo," a series of currency controls that have been in place since 2019. This decision fulfills one of Milei's campaign promises and places the future of the Argentine economy in the government's hands.

To address this, the central bank has implemented a fluctuation system aimed at maintaining the exchange rate between 1,000 and 1,400 pesos per dollar.

🔄 The central bank will intervene in the market to stabilize the rate if it goes outside this range. During the first week of free flotation, the dollar remained stable, trending toward the lower end of the fluctuation system. This suggests confidence in Milei's strategy and indicates that Argentines have not fully committed to the dollar.

⚖️ Dealing with the dollar will be one of the biggest tests for Milei, and his political future is at stake. If successful, he will demonstrate his ability to dismantle a long-standing system without the possibility of withdrawal. However, if his plan fails, Argentines will face increased devaluation and inflation, overshadowing the anticipated economic miracle by rising debt levels with the IMF and other international lenders.

🚀 Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Boom Amid Trump’s Tariff Turmoil

🌪 Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex and principal at Maelstrom, recently drew a bold analogy between President Trump's trade policies and financial market risks. He likened the situation to avalanche forecasting, stating,

I characterize this chain of events as a policymaker pivot from 'everything is fine' to 'everything is fucked, we must do something', markets surged, and most importantly, bitcoin bottomed.

He declared a local bottom for bitcoin at $74,500.

📉 Hayes attributed the chaos in the market to Trump's tariff announcement, which he claimed heightened U.S. bond market volatility to crisis levels. This led to a swift reversal, prompting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to announce a bond buyback program. Hayes interpreted this move as stealth monetary easing and emphasized its bullish implications for digital assets:

Using this information, we as bitcoin hodlers and crypto degen investors know that the bottom is in because the next time Trump ramps up the Tariff rhetoric or refuses to reduce tariffs on China, bitcoin will rally in anticipation of the monetary mandarins running the money printing press at max Brrrrr levels to ensure bond market volatility remains muted.

🔮 He further noted that Trump's future tariff actions could lead to additional concessions without crushing bitcoin alongside certain equities. Hayes remarked,

Bitcoin knows that the deflationary policies cannot be sustained for long, given the insane levels of current and future debt the filthy financial system requires to operate.

💪 Despite recent market downturns, Hayes expressed strong optimism for bitcoin and the broader crypto market. He revealed Maelstrom's aggressive investment strategy, stating,

At Maelstrom, we have maxed out our crypto exposure. Now it’s all about buying and selling different cryptos to stack sats. The coin purchased in the largest quantity was bitcoin during the dip from $110,000 to $74,500.

🌍 With global sentiment portraying Trump as recklessly using tariffs, investors are seeking assets perceived as counter to the establishment. Hayes explained,

Physically, that’s gold. Digitally, that’s bitcoin.

He predicted a major capital shift within crypto markets:

Once bitcoin breaches $110,000, the previous all-time high, it will likely surge, further increasing dominance. Maybe it just misses $200,000. Then the rotation begins from bitcoin into shitcoins.

📉 Steve Hanke Warns: Trump's Tariffs Could Echo the 1930s Economic Collapse

👎 Economist Steve Hanke has expressed strong opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, drawing parallels between the current economic climate and the early 1930s. He specifically references the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which he describes as

the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen in my life.

📱 On the social media platform X, Hanke has been vocal about his concerns. He quoted his friend and former colleague David Stockman, stating that

Trump’s proposed tariffs will increase input costs for American businesses by $500 billion.

Hanke emphasized that

tariffs equal an economic wrecking ball.

📉 In a video posted on X, Hanke warned that current economic policies resemble those of the early 1930s, when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was implemented. He noted,

The money supply was contracting. That caused a slowdown in the start of the Great Depression.

He further explained that the announcement of the Smoot-Hawley tariff in March 1930 led to a market crash, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 83% of its value by June 1932.

🤔 Hanke criticized the Trump administration's approach, suggesting that its advisors either misunderstand or underestimate the risks involved. He pointed out Trump's casual dismissal of potential economic fallout as a minor or short-lived issue reflects a disconnect from historical precedent and monetary realities.

🎥 In the video, Hanke stated,

We’ve seen this movie before. It’s clear that the people around Trump had no clue of what’s going on.

He warned that if the current situation does not change,

we’re in for a lot of trouble.

He concluded by diplomatically calling the situation

the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen in my life. The U.S. is just creating enemies.

💰 Ripple's Acquisition Bid for Circle Internet Group

🔍 Ripple has made a significant move in the cryptocurrency space by attempting to acquire its competitor, Circle Internet Group. The company offered between $4 billion and $5 billion for Circle; however, insiders reported that the offer was rejected due to its undervaluation of the company.

📈 Despite this setback, Ripple remains interested in Circle, although it is uncertain whether they will make a follow-up bid. Meanwhile, Circle is moving forward with its plans for an initial public offering (IPO), which was filed earlier this month.

💵 Ripple recently launched its RLUSD stablecoin in December, which currently has a market value of approximately $316.9 million. This places it in competition with Circle's USDC stablecoin, which boasts a much larger valuation of $61.7 billion.

🗣 A spokesperson for Circle declined to provide details about the potential deal, citing regulatory constraints and a quiet period under the SEC. Ripple also chose not to comment publicly on the matter.

📉 Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Dwindle Ahead of FOMC Meeting

📅 Just over two weeks ago, there was a 39.8% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve would reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. However, as we approach the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, that probability has plummeted to just 7.8%.

📉 U.S. equity indexes fell in response to recent data indicating a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP), amidst ongoing trade negotiations and concerns over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors will meet on May 7 to decide on the benchmark interest rate.

🗣 Trump's views on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have shifted significantly. He initially criticized Powell for being slow and even suggested his removal. However, Trump later retracted those statements, asserting he had no intention of dismissing the Fed chair. At a rally in Michigan, he claimed to have superior knowledge in monetary matters, stating,

I have a Fed person who is not really doing a good job.

📊 According to projections from the CME Fedwatch tool, the chances of a rate cut are minimal, with markets favoring no change. While there is a slight 7.8% probability for a 25 basis point reduction, the overwhelming expectation is 92.2% for maintaining the current rate. The Fedwatch tool assesses these odds by analyzing fed funds futures prices to provide real-time market insights.

📈 A 2025 study published on SSRN credits the Fedwatch tool with an 88% accuracy rate in predicting Federal Reserve decisions. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s prediction market indicates a 93% chance of no rate change and a 7% chance of a cut, with $32 million in wagers placed. On Kalshi, the probability for a quarter-point cut is slightly higher at 10%.

💼 As traders overwhelmingly anticipate no changes to the rate, market sentiment reflects confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain its position during the upcoming May FOMC meeting. This confidence persists despite political pressure from Trump and economic uncertainties related to tariffs. The disparity between sentiment and speculation highlights how firmly entrenched expectations have become.

🔍 Whether the central bank will strictly adhere to data or yield to broader narratives could soon become a pivotal moment for its monetary credibility. However, with a week remaining before the meeting, there is still ample time for FOMC members to reconsider their positions.

📈 XRP's Current Market Position and Technical Analysis

💹 XRP is currently trading at $2.14 with a market capitalization of $125 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $1.99 billion. The asset's intraday price range is between $2.09 and $2.16, indicating cautious buying pressure.

📊 On the 1-hour chart, XRP has recovered from a recent low of $2.077 and is moving towards $2.14. This short-term rally is supported by increased buying pressure, especially in green candle volumes. A potential rounded bottom pattern suggests that bullish sentiment may be building. Entry signals were identified in the $2.09–$2.10 range, with traders watching for minor pullbacks to reinforce support. Upside targets are near $2.15 to $2.17.

📉 The 4-hour chart shows a descending channel structure with lower highs and lower lows. XRP found support near $2.077 and is testing the upper resistance boundary of the channel. A sustained breakout above the $2.15–$2.16 resistance band with rising volume would provide stronger bullish confirmation. However, failure to clear this level could renew downward pressure.

📅 On the daily chart, there is a longer-term bearish trend following a decline from approximately $2.50 to a bottom of $1.611 in April. The market entered a gradual recovery phase but has struggled to decisively surpass the $2.16–$2.17 resistance area. Support remains in the $2.05–$2.10 zone while resistance lies between $2.30 and $2.35.

🔄 Oscillator data shows a broadly neutral sentiment. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 46.69, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the momentum indicator suggests mild bearishness, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) level issues a bearish signal.

📉 A review of moving averages highlights a broadly bearish bias across shorter time frames. The exponential moving averages (EMA) for 10, 20, and 30 periods reflect negative signals, although longer-term averages like the 200-period EMA and SMA imply that the current price is still above major support zones.

🔮 In conclusion, XRP is at a technical crossroads. While there are signs of short-term recovery, the overall sentiment favors caution due to the prevailing bearish configuration of oscillators and moving averages. Until a definitive breakout above $2.16 is confirmed with strong volume, the outlook remains neutral with a bearish lean. Traders should prepare for a binary outcome based on near-term price action at resistance.