BTC $76,854 (-1.4%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
Last week closed down 0.6% - a sideways drift with a downward bias, and Monday is starting in the same fashion. CME opened with a gap down: Friday's close at $79,210, opening at $78,325 - the unfilled gap zone now hangs above price like a magnet, but first the market needs to survive what lies below.
The key contradiction of the morning: L/S at 1.34 - the market is skewed long more heavily than it was on Friday, yet 3 out of 4 timeframes are bearish, US10Y yields have risen to 4.59%, and the S&P is in the red. Longs have been accumulated while macro is pressing down - an uncomfortable combination. Yesterday's liquidation cascade of $239M already flushed out some positions, but the L/S ratio shows the market has not repositioned.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$78,325 - resistance, lower boundary of the CME gap. A reclaim above this level shifts the short-term tone
$78,564 - resistance, PDH. The second ceiling before the gap zone
$76,666 - support, PDL. A break opens the path to $75K with no significant levels in between
Scenario: ⬇️ Bearish - holding below $78,325 and a breakdown of PDL $76,666
Invalidation: close above $78,325 with OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
Last week closed down 0.6% - a sideways drift with a downward bias, and Monday is starting in the same fashion. CME opened with a gap down: Friday's close at $79,210, opening at $78,325 - the unfilled gap zone now hangs above price like a magnet, but first the market needs to survive what lies below.
The key contradiction of the morning: L/S at 1.34 - the market is skewed long more heavily than it was on Friday, yet 3 out of 4 timeframes are bearish, US10Y yields have risen to 4.59%, and the S&P is in the red. Longs have been accumulated while macro is pressing down - an uncomfortable combination. Yesterday's liquidation cascade of $239M already flushed out some positions, but the L/S ratio shows the market has not repositioned.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$78,325 - resistance, lower boundary of the CME gap. A reclaim above this level shifts the short-term tone
$78,564 - resistance, PDH. The second ceiling before the gap zone
$76,666 - support, PDL. A break opens the path to $75K with no significant levels in between
Scenario: ⬇️ Bearish - holding below $78,325 and a breakdown of PDL $76,666
Invalidation: close above $78,325 with OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- BTC ETFs hit new ATH in AUM and holder count, while RWA assets on Solana reached $2.8B (216,000 holders, stablecoin inflow $132M in 24h)
- Solana leads all networks in stablecoin supply growth - the numbers speak for themselves
📉 Bearish factors
- Long liquidations $563M in 24h - BTC and ETH took the main hit, cascade swept across the entire market
- Two DeFi hacks in 24h: Verus Ethereum bridge for $11.6M and a separate crypto bridge for $11M - pressure on ETH sentiment is obvious
👥 Traders yesterday
- A whale opened a 25x short on ETH for 23,151 ETH ($50.55M), liquidation at $2,288 - simultaneously a 20x long on BTC for 323.72 BTC ($25.27M), liquidation at $70,325
- Harvard cut IBIT by 43% to $117M and fully exited BlackRock's ETH ETF ($86.8M) - per SEC filings
- CFTC launched AI monitoring of insider trading, including tracking US traders on Polymarket via VPN
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- BTC ETFs hit new ATH in AUM and holder count, while RWA assets on Solana reached $2.8B (216,000 holders, stablecoin inflow $132M in 24h)
- Solana leads all networks in stablecoin supply growth - the numbers speak for themselves
📉 Bearish factors
- Long liquidations $563M in 24h - BTC and ETH took the main hit, cascade swept across the entire market
- Two DeFi hacks in 24h: Verus Ethereum bridge for $11.6M and a separate crypto bridge for $11M - pressure on ETH sentiment is obvious
👥 Traders yesterday
- A whale opened a 25x short on ETH for 23,151 ETH ($50.55M), liquidation at $2,288 - simultaneously a 20x long on BTC for 323.72 BTC ($25.27M), liquidation at $70,325
- Harvard cut IBIT by 43% to $117M and fully exited BlackRock's ETH ETF ($86.8M) - per SEC filings
- CFTC launched AI monitoring of insider trading, including tracking US traders on Polymarket via VPN
#digest
❤1
Evening. BTC $76,350 (-2.2% on the day)
Monday accelerated the decline - PDL $76,666 broken, price moved below with no meaningful levels in between.
What changed vs. morning:
- Morning long thesis failed: PDL $76,666 broken to the downside and held below, all 4 timeframes now bearish
- $78,325 and $78,564 were never tested - price moved in one direction from the open
- CME gap $78,325-$79,210 remains unfilled, now even further from current price
Session dynamics:
Asia opened around $78,066 and steadily drifted to $77,074 - slope of -1.18%, no bounces. London continued: range expanded, closed near $76,409. NY added pressure: first hour broke the lower boundary of its range and held below, currently $76,307.
Onchain/derivatives:
Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market holds a call skew for the third consecutive day, even as price has lost over $1,700 from Friday's close. OI barely changed on the decline - positions not being cut, longs sitting tight. Coinbase again at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been softer for several days running. Tomorrow watching whether $76,000 holds - below that, no notable levels until $75,000.
Fifth consecutive down day, Fear & Greed 28, every session in the red - Monday closing at new weekly lows.
#evening
Monday accelerated the decline - PDL $76,666 broken, price moved below with no meaningful levels in between.
What changed vs. morning:
- Morning long thesis failed: PDL $76,666 broken to the downside and held below, all 4 timeframes now bearish
- $78,325 and $78,564 were never tested - price moved in one direction from the open
- CME gap $78,325-$79,210 remains unfilled, now even further from current price
Session dynamics:
Asia opened around $78,066 and steadily drifted to $77,074 - slope of -1.18%, no bounces. London continued: range expanded, closed near $76,409. NY added pressure: first hour broke the lower boundary of its range and held below, currently $76,307.
Onchain/derivatives:
Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market holds a call skew for the third consecutive day, even as price has lost over $1,700 from Friday's close. OI barely changed on the decline - positions not being cut, longs sitting tight. Coinbase again at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been softer for several days running. Tomorrow watching whether $76,000 holds - below that, no notable levels until $75,000.
Fifth consecutive down day, Fear & Greed 28, every session in the red - Monday closing at new weekly lows.
#evening
❤1
BTC $76,961 (-0.2%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
BTC updated the early-May low, dropping to $76,580 intraday, and is now trading slightly above that - between yesterday's low of $76,014 and high of $77,758. Three consecutive days of downward pressure, yet no PDL breakout so far.
L/S ratio rose to 1.42 - longs are even more accumulated than yesterday, despite $500M+ in liquidations over the weekend, predominantly on the long side. The market has not repositioned. The options market is holding a call skew for the third day in a row - and this is with price sitting $2,000 below Friday's close.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$77,758 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. Reclaiming this level relieves downward pressure
$78,610 - resistance, Monthly Open. Consolidation here is needed for a tone shift
$76,014 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A high-volume breakdown opens the next area of interest at $74,500
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $77,758 and breaking $76,014
Invalidation: close above $77,758 with rising OI
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
BTC updated the early-May low, dropping to $76,580 intraday, and is now trading slightly above that - between yesterday's low of $76,014 and high of $77,758. Three consecutive days of downward pressure, yet no PDL breakout so far.
L/S ratio rose to 1.42 - longs are even more accumulated than yesterday, despite $500M+ in liquidations over the weekend, predominantly on the long side. The market has not repositioned. The options market is holding a call skew for the third day in a row - and this is with price sitting $2,000 below Friday's close.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$77,758 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. Reclaiming this level relieves downward pressure
$78,610 - resistance, Monthly Open. Consolidation here is needed for a tone shift
$76,014 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A high-volume breakdown opens the next area of interest at $74,500
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $77,758 and breaking $76,014
Invalidation: close above $77,758 with rising OI
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- XRP and SOL funds attracted $67.6M and $55.1M in a week while BTC funds shed $982M - capital is clearly rotating into alts
- 10% of Americans used crypto in 2025 - highest since 2022, per Fed data
📉 Bearish factors
- Echo Protocol hacked for $76-77M via admin key compromise in eBTC minting - a direct hit to BTC-derivative DeFi
- BTC ETF outflows approaching $1B for the week, derivatives pointing to continued sell-off
⚡️ Key event - Swan Bitcoin: $1B lawsuit
Swan Bitcoin hit with a nearly $1B lawsuit over asset transfers made prior to Prime Trust's bankruptcy. This is not just a legal dispute - the entire non-bank BTC custody segment is under pressure: trust in such structures is now in question at the exact moment ETF money is already leaving.
👥 Traders yesterday
- Weekly crypto fund outflows reached $1.07B - third largest YTD; comparable figures were last seen only when BTC dropped to $62,700 in January-February
- Goldman Sachs fully exited XRP ETF ($154M) and SOL ETF ($108M) in Q1 2026, cut ETH ETF by 70% to $114M, kept BTC ETF at $700M
- Oil perps BRENTOIL/USDC on Hyperliquid triggered $3.76M in long liquidations in one hour - more than all BTC liquidations across all exchanges in the same period ($3.06M)
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- XRP and SOL funds attracted $67.6M and $55.1M in a week while BTC funds shed $982M - capital is clearly rotating into alts
- 10% of Americans used crypto in 2025 - highest since 2022, per Fed data
📉 Bearish factors
- Echo Protocol hacked for $76-77M via admin key compromise in eBTC minting - a direct hit to BTC-derivative DeFi
- BTC ETF outflows approaching $1B for the week, derivatives pointing to continued sell-off
⚡️ Key event - Swan Bitcoin: $1B lawsuit
Swan Bitcoin hit with a nearly $1B lawsuit over asset transfers made prior to Prime Trust's bankruptcy. This is not just a legal dispute - the entire non-bank BTC custody segment is under pressure: trust in such structures is now in question at the exact moment ETF money is already leaving.
👥 Traders yesterday
- Weekly crypto fund outflows reached $1.07B - third largest YTD; comparable figures were last seen only when BTC dropped to $62,700 in January-February
- Goldman Sachs fully exited XRP ETF ($154M) and SOL ETF ($108M) in Q1 2026, cut ETH ETF by 70% to $114M, kept BTC ETF at $700M
- Oil perps BRENTOIL/USDC on Hyperliquid triggered $3.76M in long liquidations in one hour - more than all BTC liquidations across all exchanges in the same period ($3.06M)
#digest
Evening. BTC $76,528 (+0.2% on the day)
Price recovered its morning losses, closing the day where it started - effectively no movement.
What changed since morning:
- Long thesis didn't play out: $77,758 was never tested, price moved down from London open
- $76,014 held - no downside break, price consolidating just above the level
- Timeframe structure: 3 bearish out of 4, zero bullish - pressure not relieved
Session dynamics:
Asia closed at $77,234 with a modest gain - the only session of the day with a positive bias. London reversed the move lower, closing at $76,521. NY continues the decline: first hour broke below its range low and held there.
Onchain/derivatives:
Funding on Hyperliquid is neutral - no position overheating. OI rose $170M with near-zero price movement: positions are being built, but buyers aren't pushing price - accumulation without momentum. Coinbase is again at a discount to Asian exchanges, Western demand has been weak for several days running. Deribit put/call 0.67 - calls dominating for the fourth consecutive day while price sits $1,500 below Friday's close; keeping this gap between positioning and price in focus.
Tuesday closes flat at weekly lows: sellers couldn't push through $76,000, buyers couldn't reclaim $77,000.
#evening
Price recovered its morning losses, closing the day where it started - effectively no movement.
What changed since morning:
- Long thesis didn't play out: $77,758 was never tested, price moved down from London open
- $76,014 held - no downside break, price consolidating just above the level
- Timeframe structure: 3 bearish out of 4, zero bullish - pressure not relieved
Session dynamics:
Asia closed at $77,234 with a modest gain - the only session of the day with a positive bias. London reversed the move lower, closing at $76,521. NY continues the decline: first hour broke below its range low and held there.
Onchain/derivatives:
Funding on Hyperliquid is neutral - no position overheating. OI rose $170M with near-zero price movement: positions are being built, but buyers aren't pushing price - accumulation without momentum. Coinbase is again at a discount to Asian exchanges, Western demand has been weak for several days running. Deribit put/call 0.67 - calls dominating for the fourth consecutive day while price sits $1,500 below Friday's close; keeping this gap between positioning and price in focus.
Tuesday closes flat at weekly lows: sellers couldn't push through $76,000, buyers couldn't reclaim $77,000.
#evening
❤1
BTC $77,178
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
Price is locked between PDL $76,107 and PDH $77,385 - fourth consecutive day without a breakout in either direction. Yesterday the options market held a calls skew with price sitting $1,500 below Friday's close - today that gap hasn't gone anywhere, calls are still dominant.
Key fact of the morning: L/S ratio rose to 1.48 - longs are accumulated at their highest level in recent days, while ETF outflows yesterday totaled $648M (BlackRock alone accounted for $448M). The market is holding longs while institutions are exiting through spot. This contradiction typically resolves in one way.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$77,385 - resistance, PDH. A breakout with volume changes the picture
$76,107 - support, PDL. A breakout opens the next zone at $74,500
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - L/S at 1.48 combined with active ETF outflows creates pressure on longs; expecting a breakout of $76,107
Invalidation: close above PDH $77,385 with a reversal in ETF flows
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
Price is locked between PDL $76,107 and PDH $77,385 - fourth consecutive day without a breakout in either direction. Yesterday the options market held a calls skew with price sitting $1,500 below Friday's close - today that gap hasn't gone anywhere, calls are still dominant.
Key fact of the morning: L/S ratio rose to 1.48 - longs are accumulated at their highest level in recent days, while ETF outflows yesterday totaled $648M (BlackRock alone accounted for $448M). The market is holding longs while institutions are exiting through spot. This contradiction typically resolves in one way.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$77,385 - resistance, PDH. A breakout with volume changes the picture
$76,107 - support, PDL. A breakout opens the next zone at $74,500
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - L/S at 1.48 combined with active ETF outflows creates pressure on longs; expecting a breakout of $76,107
Invalidation: close above PDH $77,385 with a reversal in ETF flows
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤1
DXY 99.42
US 10Y Yield: 4.67%
VIX: 18.0
BTC (~24h, futures): +0.87%
DXY holds below 100 with a modest recovery, while the 10Y yield continues to creep higher - pressuring risk asset valuations through the cost of money.
Not investment advice.
#dxy
US 10Y Yield: 4.67%
VIX: 18.0
BTC (~24h, futures): +0.87%
DXY holds below 100 with a modest recovery, while the 10Y yield continues to creep higher - pressuring risk asset valuations through the cost of money.
Not investment advice.
#dxy
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Bitfinex traders increased BTC longs to a 2.5-year high - the bet on a reversal has been accumulating for five consecutive days.
- The U.S. Senate restricted Trump's military authority over Iran: BTC, ETH, and XRP rebounded as the geopolitical risk premium declined.
📉 Bearish factors
- Daily outflows from spot BTC ETFs reached $648.6M, of which $448M came from BlackRock alone; the second-largest single-day outflow of 2026.
- WLFI-linked AI Financial Corporation recorded a $271.5M loss and officially raised doubts about its ability to continue operations.
👥 Traders yesterday
- On May 19, BTC traded at $76,864, ETH at $2,134, Fear & Greed Index at 25 ("Extreme Fear").
- Strategy holds 4% of total BTC supply, BitMine holds 4.37% of ETH supply; corporate accumulation continues even through the drawdown.
- Bitcoin Depot announced the closure of its network of 9,000 Bitcoin ATMs.
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Bitfinex traders increased BTC longs to a 2.5-year high - the bet on a reversal has been accumulating for five consecutive days.
- The U.S. Senate restricted Trump's military authority over Iran: BTC, ETH, and XRP rebounded as the geopolitical risk premium declined.
📉 Bearish factors
- Daily outflows from spot BTC ETFs reached $648.6M, of which $448M came from BlackRock alone; the second-largest single-day outflow of 2026.
- WLFI-linked AI Financial Corporation recorded a $271.5M loss and officially raised doubts about its ability to continue operations.
👥 Traders yesterday
- On May 19, BTC traded at $76,864, ETH at $2,134, Fear & Greed Index at 25 ("Extreme Fear").
- Strategy holds 4% of total BTC supply, BitMine holds 4.37% of ETH supply; corporate accumulation continues even through the drawdown.
- Bitcoin Depot announced the closure of its network of 9,000 Bitcoin ATMs.
#digest
Evening. BTC $77,472
The bearish thesis from the morning didn't play out: Asia pulled BTC higher, and price added roughly $950 from yesterday's close.
What changed since morning:
- $77,385 (PDH) was broken and held above - resistance worked as a target, not a stop
- $76,107 was never tested at all, sellers didn't gain control
- Timeframe structure is mixed: 2 bullish out of 4, pressure partially relieved
Session dynamics:
Asia drove the main move of the day - bias +0.74%, closing at $77,283. London spent the day ranging with a 1.24% range, closing at $77,455. NY is also flat so far: price holding inside the first-hour range with no clear direction.
Onchain / derivatives:
Funding is moderately rising for the third day, no overheating. OI declined - a portion of longs was flushed in a cascade of around $74M, cleaning up positioning. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand isn't chasing the move. Deribit put/call 0.67 - calls dominating for the fifth consecutive day; the gap between options positioning and price is starting to narrow - this is the first day price is moving toward them.
Wednesday closes as the first real green day of the week: the move is there, Fear & Greed at 27, buyers remain cautious.
Not investment advice.
#evening
The bearish thesis from the morning didn't play out: Asia pulled BTC higher, and price added roughly $950 from yesterday's close.
What changed since morning:
- $77,385 (PDH) was broken and held above - resistance worked as a target, not a stop
- $76,107 was never tested at all, sellers didn't gain control
- Timeframe structure is mixed: 2 bullish out of 4, pressure partially relieved
Session dynamics:
Asia drove the main move of the day - bias +0.74%, closing at $77,283. London spent the day ranging with a 1.24% range, closing at $77,455. NY is also flat so far: price holding inside the first-hour range with no clear direction.
Onchain / derivatives:
Funding is moderately rising for the third day, no overheating. OI declined - a portion of longs was flushed in a cascade of around $74M, cleaning up positioning. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand isn't chasing the move. Deribit put/call 0.67 - calls dominating for the fifth consecutive day; the gap between options positioning and price is starting to narrow - this is the first day price is moving toward them.
Wednesday closes as the first real green day of the week: the move is there, Fear & Greed at 27, buyers remain cautious.
Not investment advice.
#evening
BTC $77,562
1H▲ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
For five days calls dominated while price was lower - yesterday the market finally moved in their favor: +1.6% and a break above PDH $77,826. The gap between options positioning and price has started to close, but BTC is currently trading right inside the CME gap zone ($77,470-$77,705), which opened this morning.
L/S dropped from 1.48 to 1.24 - some accumulated longs exited or got cut. Futures volume at 9.2x vs spot suggests the move up was driven by derivatives, not real demand. Goldman sold crypto ETFs worth $1B+, but that's already priced in - more importantly, funding remains neutral, no overheating yet.
📍 Key levels:
$77,826 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A close above opens the path to $79K
$77,470-$77,705 - CME gap zone. Price is inside it right now
$76,881 - support, Monthly Open. Losing this level returns price to the old range
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $77,826 with rising OI confirms continuation
Invalidation: return below $77,470 and loss of Monthly Open $76,881
Not investment advice.
#morning
1H▲ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
For five days calls dominated while price was lower - yesterday the market finally moved in their favor: +1.6% and a break above PDH $77,826. The gap between options positioning and price has started to close, but BTC is currently trading right inside the CME gap zone ($77,470-$77,705), which opened this morning.
L/S dropped from 1.48 to 1.24 - some accumulated longs exited or got cut. Futures volume at 9.2x vs spot suggests the move up was driven by derivatives, not real demand. Goldman sold crypto ETFs worth $1B+, but that's already priced in - more importantly, funding remains neutral, no overheating yet.
📍 Key levels:
$77,826 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A close above opens the path to $79K
$77,470-$77,705 - CME gap zone. Price is inside it right now
$76,881 - support, Monthly Open. Losing this level returns price to the old range
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $77,826 with rising OI confirms continuation
Invalidation: return below $77,470 and loss of Monthly Open $76,881
Not investment advice.
#morning
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- IG enters all of Europe via Bitpanda: direct expansion of the spot market audience
- Hyperliquid ETF added 50% volume after a weak start - demand for the product has returned
📉 Bearish factors
- Map Protocol down 96% after an exploit: the attacker minted a quadrillion tokens, holders lost liquidity
- Verus-Ethereum bridge hacked for $11M via a parameter verification bug - the cross-chain bridge segment is under fire again
👥 Traders yesterday
- a16z accumulated approximately 9.18M HYPE for roughly $356M at an average of $38.77 - position is in profit
- Goldman Sachs in Q1 dumped BTC ETF ($450M), ETH ETF ($500M) and XRP ETF ($152M), but bought a HYPE ETF for $3M - an interesting choice of priorities
- K33 Research considers $60,000 the cycle bottom for BTC: in Q1 large players reduced positions by 26,733 BTC while retail was buying
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- IG enters all of Europe via Bitpanda: direct expansion of the spot market audience
- Hyperliquid ETF added 50% volume after a weak start - demand for the product has returned
📉 Bearish factors
- Map Protocol down 96% after an exploit: the attacker minted a quadrillion tokens, holders lost liquidity
- Verus-Ethereum bridge hacked for $11M via a parameter verification bug - the cross-chain bridge segment is under fire again
👥 Traders yesterday
- a16z accumulated approximately 9.18M HYPE for roughly $356M at an average of $38.77 - position is in profit
- Goldman Sachs in Q1 dumped BTC ETF ($450M), ETH ETF ($500M) and XRP ETF ($152M), but bought a HYPE ETF for $3M - an interesting choice of priorities
- K33 Research considers $60,000 the cycle bottom for BTC: in Q1 large players reduced positions by 26,733 BTC while retail was buying
#digest
Evening. BTC $77,285
Morning long thesis did not confirm: Asia provided the impulse, London cut it, NY trading without direction.
What changed since morning:
- BTC lost ~$277 from the morning level - downside move came through London, not NY
- Timeframe structure deteriorated: 2 bearish out of 4 vs. 1 bearish this morning, pressure remains
- Derivatives overheating thesis partially confirmed: longs liquidated in cascade up to $72M, OI contracted
Session dynamics:
Asia closed at $77,889 with a +0.50% bias - session printed the daily high. London reversed price lower with a range of nearly 2%, closing at $77,259. NY trading in a narrow range, price inside the first-hour range - no clean scenario developed.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI declined alongside price - long cascade cleaned up positioning, no funding overheating on Hyperliquid. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian exchanges for the third consecutive day: Western demand is not picking up the move. Deribit put/call 0.68 - calls still dominant, options market maintains an upside bias even with price below the weekly open levels. CME gap $77,470-$77,705 remains unfilled - price trading below it, keeping it in focus for tomorrow.
Thursday: Asia bought, London sold, NY is standing still - the day gave back most of the overnight gains.
Not investment advice.
#evening
Morning long thesis did not confirm: Asia provided the impulse, London cut it, NY trading without direction.
What changed since morning:
- BTC lost ~$277 from the morning level - downside move came through London, not NY
- Timeframe structure deteriorated: 2 bearish out of 4 vs. 1 bearish this morning, pressure remains
- Derivatives overheating thesis partially confirmed: longs liquidated in cascade up to $72M, OI contracted
Session dynamics:
Asia closed at $77,889 with a +0.50% bias - session printed the daily high. London reversed price lower with a range of nearly 2%, closing at $77,259. NY trading in a narrow range, price inside the first-hour range - no clean scenario developed.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI declined alongside price - long cascade cleaned up positioning, no funding overheating on Hyperliquid. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian exchanges for the third consecutive day: Western demand is not picking up the move. Deribit put/call 0.68 - calls still dominant, options market maintains an upside bias even with price below the weekly open levels. CME gap $77,470-$77,705 remains unfilled - price trading below it, keeping it in focus for tomorrow.
Thursday: Asia bought, London sold, NY is standing still - the day gave back most of the overnight gains.
Not investment advice.
#evening
S&P 500
7,430 (+1.26% vs yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,389 - 7,466 (1.04%).
S&P 500 gained 1.26%, while BTC barely moved (-0.35%) - this divergence suggests today's equity rally is not backed by risk appetite in crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) at 17 points to a calm backdrop, and 10-year Treasury yields were nearly unchanged.
Day mode: stocks rising, but crypto not confirming - a local move without broad risk appetite.
#sp500
7,430 (+1.26% vs yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,389 - 7,466 (1.04%).
S&P 500 gained 1.26%, while BTC barely moved (-0.35%) - this divergence suggests today's equity rally is not backed by risk appetite in crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) at 17 points to a calm backdrop, and 10-year Treasury yields were nearly unchanged.
Day mode: stocks rising, but crypto not confirming - a local move without broad risk appetite.
#sp500