BTC $80,393 (+1.6%)
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Yesterday price dipped to $78,869, today it's already trading above $80K - the pullback was bought. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee, the market reacted accordingly, and F&G jumped from 34 to 43 in a single day. Regulatory tailwinds provided the catalyst, but there is still no consolidation above the Monthly Open at $80,990.
The key factor today is L/S at 0.64 with rising OI. Shorts have built up significantly, funding is negative (-0.0042%) - short positions are paying to hold. If price pushes through PDH $81,999, those positions will begin forced liquidation. Spot/Futures ratio x9.0 - the move will be speculative with limited real spot buying behind it, so the impulse may be sharp but short-lived.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,999 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A breakout activates pressure on short positions
$80,990 - resistance/support, Monthly Open. Consolidation above shifts the tone of the day
$78,869 - support, yesterday's low. A return here invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $80,990 and a breakout of $81,999 with rising OI
Invalidation: drop below $80,990 and a break of the hourly structure to the downside
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Yesterday price dipped to $78,869, today it's already trading above $80K - the pullback was bought. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee, the market reacted accordingly, and F&G jumped from 34 to 43 in a single day. Regulatory tailwinds provided the catalyst, but there is still no consolidation above the Monthly Open at $80,990.
The key factor today is L/S at 0.64 with rising OI. Shorts have built up significantly, funding is negative (-0.0042%) - short positions are paying to hold. If price pushes through PDH $81,999, those positions will begin forced liquidation. Spot/Futures ratio x9.0 - the move will be speculative with limited real spot buying behind it, so the impulse may be sharp but short-lived.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,999 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A breakout activates pressure on short positions
$80,990 - resistance/support, Monthly Open. Consolidation above shifts the tone of the day
$78,869 - support, yesterday's low. A return here invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $80,990 and a breakout of $81,999 with rising OI
Invalidation: drop below $80,990 and a break of the hourly structure to the downside
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤2
Currently I am building and testing a 15m crypto system in public - paper trading on BingX.
Stats from 30 April:
• Trades: 173
• Win rate: 50.3%
• Total: +35.8R
• Avg per trade: +0.21R
• Max drawdown on the R curve: −13.2R (from equity peak in R)
Win rate sits near a coin flip, but expectancy per trade is positive on the full log. On the dashboard model (0.5% per 1R) that is roughly +18% from a 100% start; the orange floor is an 8% trailing drawdown from the account peak (prop-style limit). Paper only so fees, slippage, min size, and execution will cut live results.
My next steps:
- keep the core strategy unchanged while the full sample stays green;
- test tweaks only in shadow paths on the server (stats in the background);
- auto-disable weak variants via risk rules;
- ship to production only settings that hold up on enough trades;
- one more week of stats, then a real account, after that I'll push automated signals in this channel.
Update in about a week. Have a great day!
Stats from 30 April:
• Trades: 173
• Win rate: 50.3%
• Total: +35.8R
• Avg per trade: +0.21R
• Max drawdown on the R curve: −13.2R (from equity peak in R)
Win rate sits near a coin flip, but expectancy per trade is positive on the full log. On the dashboard model (0.5% per 1R) that is roughly +18% from a 100% start; the orange floor is an 8% trailing drawdown from the account peak (prop-style limit). Paper only so fees, slippage, min size, and execution will cut live results.
My next steps:
- keep the core strategy unchanged while the full sample stays green;
- test tweaks only in shadow paths on the server (stats in the background);
- auto-disable weak variants via risk rules;
- ship to production only settings that hold up on enough trades;
- one more week of stats, then a real account, after that I'll push automated signals in this channel.
Update in about a week. Have a great day!
❤2
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Hana Bank acquires 6.55% of Dunamu for $668M - bank capital entering crypto infrastructure directly, not via ETF
- Strategy added 11,707 BTC through STRC issuance with $1.5B trading volume - corporate appetite for BTC holds
- Jane Street increased positions in ETH funds, Riot, Coinbase and Galaxy while cutting BTC-ETF exposure - sector rotation continues
📉 Bearish factors
- Thorchain halted trading after a $10M exploit, RUNE -12% - liquidity frozen
- Open interest on Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX down a combined $1.25B following CPI data - leverage being cut
- BTC failing to hold above the 200-day MA, corporate buying down 80% week-over-week per Bitfinex data
👥 Traders yesterday
- Forward Industries holds nearly 7M SOL at an average of $232 vs. current price of $91 - unrealized loss of ~$1B, staking generates $17.38M per quarter but that's cold comfort
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair in a 54-45 vote, replacing Powell on May 15; previously called BTC an important asset
- CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, next step - full vote in both chambers
- CME and Nasdaq to launch crypto index futures (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM) on June 8 pending regulatory approval
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Hana Bank acquires 6.55% of Dunamu for $668M - bank capital entering crypto infrastructure directly, not via ETF
- Strategy added 11,707 BTC through STRC issuance with $1.5B trading volume - corporate appetite for BTC holds
- Jane Street increased positions in ETH funds, Riot, Coinbase and Galaxy while cutting BTC-ETF exposure - sector rotation continues
📉 Bearish factors
- Thorchain halted trading after a $10M exploit, RUNE -12% - liquidity frozen
- Open interest on Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX down a combined $1.25B following CPI data - leverage being cut
- BTC failing to hold above the 200-day MA, corporate buying down 80% week-over-week per Bitfinex data
👥 Traders yesterday
- Forward Industries holds nearly 7M SOL at an average of $232 vs. current price of $91 - unrealized loss of ~$1B, staking generates $17.38M per quarter but that's cold comfort
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair in a 54-45 vote, replacing Powell on May 15; previously called BTC an important asset
- CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, next step - full vote in both chambers
- CME and Nasdaq to launch crypto index futures (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM) on June 8 pending regulatory approval
#digest
❤1
Evening. BTC $79,171 (-2.8% for the day)
Thursday's gains have been returned - Friday erased the entire previous day's move.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish thesis failed: PDH $81,999 was never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Monthly Open $80,990 didn't hold - price dropped below during the Asian session
- Support at $78,869 (yesterday's low) is holding for now, but BTC is trading right against it
Session dynamics:
Asia started selling off immediately - nearly -1% bias on a narrow range, closed at $80,815. London increased pressure: range nearly 3%, bias -1.77%, close at $79,150. NY continues in the same direction; the first hour played out inside the range with no clean breakout.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI dropped alongside price - longs were liquidated, peak cascade around $97M. Bybit and OKX funding rates are pointing in opposite directions, while the OI divergence between Bybit and Binance is notable - positioning differs across venues. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been weaker than Asian for the third day running. Deribit put/call 0.69 - calls still dominate, the options market has not repositioned for downside.
Three consecutive bearish sessions have pushed BTC back to early-week levels - Friday is closing without a recovery.
#evening
Thursday's gains have been returned - Friday erased the entire previous day's move.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish thesis failed: PDH $81,999 was never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Monthly Open $80,990 didn't hold - price dropped below during the Asian session
- Support at $78,869 (yesterday's low) is holding for now, but BTC is trading right against it
Session dynamics:
Asia started selling off immediately - nearly -1% bias on a narrow range, closed at $80,815. London increased pressure: range nearly 3%, bias -1.77%, close at $79,150. NY continues in the same direction; the first hour played out inside the range with no clean breakout.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI dropped alongside price - longs were liquidated, peak cascade around $97M. Bybit and OKX funding rates are pointing in opposite directions, while the OI divergence between Bybit and Binance is notable - positioning differs across venues. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been weaker than Asian for the third day running. Deribit put/call 0.69 - calls still dominate, the options market has not repositioned for downside.
Three consecutive bearish sessions have pushed BTC back to early-week levels - Friday is closing without a recovery.
#evening
BTC $78,994 (-2.1%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
OI dropped 9.1% over the past 24 hours - this is not a gradual exit, but a liquidation cascade. Longs were forcibly wiped out, with the largest cascade reaching approximately $97M. Price broke below $80K and is now trading at yesterday's low of $78,610.
Macro adds further pressure: US10Y rose to 4.59%, S&P -1.2%, Gold -2.6% - risk-off across all fronts simultaneously.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,946 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above this level fundamentally changes the picture
$81,624 - resistance, PDH. Second ceiling if the first one is broken
$78,610 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. Price is already here - a breakdown opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,946 and a volume-confirmed breakdown of $78,610
Invalidation: close above $80,946 accompanied by OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
OI dropped 9.1% over the past 24 hours - this is not a gradual exit, but a liquidation cascade. Longs were forcibly wiped out, with the largest cascade reaching approximately $97M. Price broke below $80K and is now trading at yesterday's low of $78,610.
Macro adds further pressure: US10Y rose to 4.59%, S&P -1.2%, Gold -2.6% - risk-off across all fronts simultaneously.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,946 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above this level fundamentally changes the picture
$81,624 - resistance, PDH. Second ceiling if the first one is broken
$78,610 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. Price is already here - a breakdown opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,946 and a volume-confirmed breakdown of $78,610
Invalidation: close above $80,946 accompanied by OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Binance captured 78% of net CEX inflows in May: exchanges attracted $3.3B, stablecoins $2.5B, BTC-ETF $1.5B
- Kraken migrated kBTC ($333M TVL) to Chainlink CCIP - total TVL growth across LINK-integrated protocols reached $3B over several weeks
- BTC mining difficulty rose 3.12% to 136.61T; hashrate broke above 1 ZH/s for the first time since February
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC-ETFs lost $1B in a week, ending a six-week inflow streak
- Strategy disclosed a possible BTC sale to redeem $1.38B in convertible bonds - deal closes May 19
- THORChain suspended operations following a $7.4M exploit across BTC, ETH, BNB Chain and Base networks
⚡️ Key event: CME and NYSE demand Hyperliquid regulation
CME and NYSE petitioned US authorities to regulate Hyperliquid - the platform operates without KYC while perpetual futures volumes on certain days exceed the largest CEXs. HYPE surged 16% in 24 hours but began pulling back after the Bloomberg publication. Regulatory pressure on the largest decentralized perp market is reshaping the risk profile of the entire segment.
👥 Traders yesterday
- BTC is trading at the short-term whale cost basis of $79,000-80,000 - a CryptoQuant analyst notes both previous tests of this zone (October 2025 and January 2026) ended in capitulation
- JPMorgan records ETH and altcoin underperformance vs BTC since 2023: upgrades reduced L2 fees, weakening ETH burn and increasing supply
- The CLARITY Act will split assets into those eligible for funds and banks versus everything else - traders believe even after passage no broad altseason will follow
- April 2026 had only three days with zero DeFi protocol hacks; CertiK co-founder links the rise in attacks to AI tools that simplify vulnerability discovery
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Binance captured 78% of net CEX inflows in May: exchanges attracted $3.3B, stablecoins $2.5B, BTC-ETF $1.5B
- Kraken migrated kBTC ($333M TVL) to Chainlink CCIP - total TVL growth across LINK-integrated protocols reached $3B over several weeks
- BTC mining difficulty rose 3.12% to 136.61T; hashrate broke above 1 ZH/s for the first time since February
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC-ETFs lost $1B in a week, ending a six-week inflow streak
- Strategy disclosed a possible BTC sale to redeem $1.38B in convertible bonds - deal closes May 19
- THORChain suspended operations following a $7.4M exploit across BTC, ETH, BNB Chain and Base networks
⚡️ Key event: CME and NYSE demand Hyperliquid regulation
CME and NYSE petitioned US authorities to regulate Hyperliquid - the platform operates without KYC while perpetual futures volumes on certain days exceed the largest CEXs. HYPE surged 16% in 24 hours but began pulling back after the Bloomberg publication. Regulatory pressure on the largest decentralized perp market is reshaping the risk profile of the entire segment.
👥 Traders yesterday
- BTC is trading at the short-term whale cost basis of $79,000-80,000 - a CryptoQuant analyst notes both previous tests of this zone (October 2025 and January 2026) ended in capitulation
- JPMorgan records ETH and altcoin underperformance vs BTC since 2023: upgrades reduced L2 fees, weakening ETH burn and increasing supply
- The CLARITY Act will split assets into those eligible for funds and banks versus everything else - traders believe even after passage no broad altseason will follow
- April 2026 had only three days with zero DeFi protocol hacks; CertiK co-founder links the rise in attacks to AI tools that simplify vulnerability discovery
#digest
❤1
Evening. BTC $78,219 (-1.2% on the day)
PDL $78,610 failed to hold - Saturday pushed price below yesterday's low.
What changed vs morning:
- PDL $78,610 broken to the downside - the level that was key support in the morning now acts as resistance
- By timeframe: 3 bearish vs 1 bullish - structure has not recovered
Session dynamics:
Asia sold off through the entire range, closed at $78,370. London continued lower - negative bias, close at $78,239. NY opened weak: first hour broke the range high to the upside and held above it, minor bounce off the bottom.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI declined alongside price - longs continue to exit, cascade around $78M. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand noticeably weaker. Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market has not repositioned for downside, calls still dominate. Onchain proxy reads bullish - the divergence between derivatives positioning and underlying metrics stays on my radar.
Third consecutive down day, Fear & Greed at 31 - Saturday closing at weekly lows.
#evening
PDL $78,610 failed to hold - Saturday pushed price below yesterday's low.
What changed vs morning:
- PDL $78,610 broken to the downside - the level that was key support in the morning now acts as resistance
- By timeframe: 3 bearish vs 1 bullish - structure has not recovered
Session dynamics:
Asia sold off through the entire range, closed at $78,370. London continued lower - negative bias, close at $78,239. NY opened weak: first hour broke the range high to the upside and held above it, minor bounce off the bottom.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI declined alongside price - longs continue to exit, cascade around $78M. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand noticeably weaker. Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market has not repositioned for downside, calls still dominate. Onchain proxy reads bullish - the divergence between derivatives positioning and underlying metrics stays on my radar.
Third consecutive down day, Fear & Greed at 31 - Saturday closing at weekly lows.
#evening
❤1
BTC $78,066 (-1.1%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
ETF flows have reversed - $1B in outflows last week after six consecutive weeks of inflows. This is the first real signal that institutions are not buying the dip, but exiting. Price is holding at the Weekly Low of $77,602 - the level is holding for now, but there are no visible buyers below it.
A small short squeeze yesterday (~$78M) produced a bounce, but OI dropped in the process - positions were being closed, not opened. Fundamentally nothing has changed: US10Y at 4.59%, S&P in the red, F&G down from 43 to 27 in two days.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$79,200 - resistance, PDH. A reclaim above this level changes the short-term picture
$79,770 - resistance, Monthly Open. Consolidation here is a prerequisite for any bullish thesis
$77,602 - support, Weekly Low = PDL. A breakdown below with volume opens the path to $75K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $79,200 and a breakdown of $77,602
Invalidation: close above $79,770 with OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
ETF flows have reversed - $1B in outflows last week after six consecutive weeks of inflows. This is the first real signal that institutions are not buying the dip, but exiting. Price is holding at the Weekly Low of $77,602 - the level is holding for now, but there are no visible buyers below it.
A small short squeeze yesterday (~$78M) produced a bounce, but OI dropped in the process - positions were being closed, not opened. Fundamentally nothing has changed: US10Y at 4.59%, S&P in the red, F&G down from 43 to 27 in two days.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$79,200 - resistance, PDH. A reclaim above this level changes the short-term picture
$79,770 - resistance, Monthly Open. Consolidation here is a prerequisite for any bullish thesis
$77,602 - support, Weekly Low = PDL. A breakdown below with volume opens the path to $75K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $79,200 and a breakdown of $77,602
Invalidation: close above $79,770 with OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Intesa Sanpaolo doubled its crypto holdings to $235M in Q1 2026 - Italy's largest bank holds direct positions, not ETFs
- BTC on-chain activity per Glassnode crossed the 60 mark - historically this has coincided with local bottoms
📉 Bearish factors
- BTC dropped back below $78,000 to early-May levels, buyer CVD on Binance collapsed from +$50M to +$6.5M over the month
- Saylor admitted BTC Strategy may sell BTC to protect against "dilution" - $1.38B in convertible bonds mature as early as May 19, and this is weighing on sentiment
Pressure from both sides is real, so we're watching trader data.
👥 Traders yesterday
- Spot BTC ETFs: total outflow of $1B for May 11-15, inflows only on Monday ($27.3M) and Thursday ($131.3M), AUM slipped to $104.29B
- Ethereum ETFs saw $255.1M in outflows for the week; meanwhile XRP funds collected +$60.5M, Solana funds +$58.1M - rotation into alts is underway
- CVD on Binance in May: +$6.5M vs. +$50M in March per CryptoQuant - buyers are clearly in no rush
- Circle placed ARC tokens raising $222M; the Roaring Kitty account was hacked and used to dump the RK token
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Intesa Sanpaolo doubled its crypto holdings to $235M in Q1 2026 - Italy's largest bank holds direct positions, not ETFs
- BTC on-chain activity per Glassnode crossed the 60 mark - historically this has coincided with local bottoms
📉 Bearish factors
- BTC dropped back below $78,000 to early-May levels, buyer CVD on Binance collapsed from +$50M to +$6.5M over the month
- Saylor admitted BTC Strategy may sell BTC to protect against "dilution" - $1.38B in convertible bonds mature as early as May 19, and this is weighing on sentiment
Pressure from both sides is real, so we're watching trader data.
👥 Traders yesterday
- Spot BTC ETFs: total outflow of $1B for May 11-15, inflows only on Monday ($27.3M) and Thursday ($131.3M), AUM slipped to $104.29B
- Ethereum ETFs saw $255.1M in outflows for the week; meanwhile XRP funds collected +$60.5M, Solana funds +$58.1M - rotation into alts is underway
- CVD on Binance in May: +$6.5M vs. +$50M in March per CryptoQuant - buyers are clearly in no rush
- Circle placed ARC tokens raising $222M; the Roaring Kitty account was hacked and used to dump the RK token
#digest
❤1
Weekly summary · 11.05 – 17.05.2026
BTC
Open $80,678 → Close $78,148 (-3.1%)
High $82,479 · Low $77,640
Market context
BTC dominance 58.2%
Total market cap $2.68T
Fear & Greed 27
Market
BTC dropped 3.1% across the week, touching a low of $77,640 before a partial recovery to $78,148, with the $82,479 high remaining undefended. Dominance held at 58.2% despite a 5% weekly decline in that metric, suggesting altcoins absorbed some selling pressure without a clear rotation signal. Total market cap sits at $2.68T with Fear & Greed at 27 — capital is defensive, not accumulating.
The structure points to continued distribution near the $80K handle rather than base-building.
Next week focus
— $77,640 is the immediate weekly low and key support; a daily close below it opens a measured move toward $74,500–$75,000
— $80,700–$82,500 is the overhead supply zone; any recovery attempt into this range without volume expansion is a shorting reference, not confirmation of trend reversal
— BTC dominance at 58.2% with a declining trend: if it breaks below 57%, monitor ETH/BTC for a relative strength shift that could redirect flows
#weekly
BTC
Open $80,678 → Close $78,148 (-3.1%)
High $82,479 · Low $77,640
Market context
BTC dominance 58.2%
Total market cap $2.68T
Fear & Greed 27
Market
BTC dropped 3.1% across the week, touching a low of $77,640 before a partial recovery to $78,148, with the $82,479 high remaining undefended. Dominance held at 58.2% despite a 5% weekly decline in that metric, suggesting altcoins absorbed some selling pressure without a clear rotation signal. Total market cap sits at $2.68T with Fear & Greed at 27 — capital is defensive, not accumulating.
The structure points to continued distribution near the $80K handle rather than base-building.
Next week focus
— $77,640 is the immediate weekly low and key support; a daily close below it opens a measured move toward $74,500–$75,000
— $80,700–$82,500 is the overhead supply zone; any recovery attempt into this range without volume expansion is a shorting reference, not confirmation of trend reversal
— BTC dominance at 58.2% with a declining trend: if it breaks below 57%, monitor ETH/BTC for a relative strength shift that could redirect flows
#weekly
Evening. BTC $78,066 (-0.2% on the day)
Sunday passed in drift - price didn't move a dollar from the morning level over the entire 24 hours.
What changed vs morning:
- Weekly Low $77,602 held without a break - price is squeezed in a narrow range between levels
- TF structure deteriorated: 3 bearish vs 1 bullish, same as yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia moved sideways with minimal bias, closed at $78,180. London slightly lower - flat with a negative tilt, close at $78,051. NY pushed down: the first hour broke the lower range boundary and held below it.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved - market is standing still, no position buildup. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged in opposite directions: no consensus on direction. Coinbase again at a discount to Asian exchanges - Western demand remains weaker. Deribit put/call 0.69, calls still dominate: the options market isn't repositioning for a decline despite four days of pressure.
Fear & Greed dropped to 27 - Sunday closes in fear, with no impulse in either direction.
#evening
Sunday passed in drift - price didn't move a dollar from the morning level over the entire 24 hours.
What changed vs morning:
- Weekly Low $77,602 held without a break - price is squeezed in a narrow range between levels
- TF structure deteriorated: 3 bearish vs 1 bullish, same as yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia moved sideways with minimal bias, closed at $78,180. London slightly lower - flat with a negative tilt, close at $78,051. NY pushed down: the first hour broke the lower range boundary and held below it.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved - market is standing still, no position buildup. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged in opposite directions: no consensus on direction. Coinbase again at a discount to Asian exchanges - Western demand remains weaker. Deribit put/call 0.69, calls still dominate: the options market isn't repositioning for a decline despite four days of pressure.
Fear & Greed dropped to 27 - Sunday closes in fear, with no impulse in either direction.
#evening
❤1
BTC $76,854 (-1.4%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
Last week closed down 0.6% - a sideways drift with a downward bias, and Monday is starting in the same fashion. CME opened with a gap down: Friday's close at $79,210, opening at $78,325 - the unfilled gap zone now hangs above price like a magnet, but first the market needs to survive what lies below.
The key contradiction of the morning: L/S at 1.34 - the market is skewed long more heavily than it was on Friday, yet 3 out of 4 timeframes are bearish, US10Y yields have risen to 4.59%, and the S&P is in the red. Longs have been accumulated while macro is pressing down - an uncomfortable combination. Yesterday's liquidation cascade of $239M already flushed out some positions, but the L/S ratio shows the market has not repositioned.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$78,325 - resistance, lower boundary of the CME gap. A reclaim above this level shifts the short-term tone
$78,564 - resistance, PDH. The second ceiling before the gap zone
$76,666 - support, PDL. A break opens the path to $75K with no significant levels in between
Scenario: ⬇️ Bearish - holding below $78,325 and a breakdown of PDL $76,666
Invalidation: close above $78,325 with OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
Last week closed down 0.6% - a sideways drift with a downward bias, and Monday is starting in the same fashion. CME opened with a gap down: Friday's close at $79,210, opening at $78,325 - the unfilled gap zone now hangs above price like a magnet, but first the market needs to survive what lies below.
The key contradiction of the morning: L/S at 1.34 - the market is skewed long more heavily than it was on Friday, yet 3 out of 4 timeframes are bearish, US10Y yields have risen to 4.59%, and the S&P is in the red. Longs have been accumulated while macro is pressing down - an uncomfortable combination. Yesterday's liquidation cascade of $239M already flushed out some positions, but the L/S ratio shows the market has not repositioned.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$78,325 - resistance, lower boundary of the CME gap. A reclaim above this level shifts the short-term tone
$78,564 - resistance, PDH. The second ceiling before the gap zone
$76,666 - support, PDL. A break opens the path to $75K with no significant levels in between
Scenario: ⬇️ Bearish - holding below $78,325 and a breakdown of PDL $76,666
Invalidation: close above $78,325 with OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- BTC ETFs hit new ATH in AUM and holder count, while RWA assets on Solana reached $2.8B (216,000 holders, stablecoin inflow $132M in 24h)
- Solana leads all networks in stablecoin supply growth - the numbers speak for themselves
📉 Bearish factors
- Long liquidations $563M in 24h - BTC and ETH took the main hit, cascade swept across the entire market
- Two DeFi hacks in 24h: Verus Ethereum bridge for $11.6M and a separate crypto bridge for $11M - pressure on ETH sentiment is obvious
👥 Traders yesterday
- A whale opened a 25x short on ETH for 23,151 ETH ($50.55M), liquidation at $2,288 - simultaneously a 20x long on BTC for 323.72 BTC ($25.27M), liquidation at $70,325
- Harvard cut IBIT by 43% to $117M and fully exited BlackRock's ETH ETF ($86.8M) - per SEC filings
- CFTC launched AI monitoring of insider trading, including tracking US traders on Polymarket via VPN
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- BTC ETFs hit new ATH in AUM and holder count, while RWA assets on Solana reached $2.8B (216,000 holders, stablecoin inflow $132M in 24h)
- Solana leads all networks in stablecoin supply growth - the numbers speak for themselves
📉 Bearish factors
- Long liquidations $563M in 24h - BTC and ETH took the main hit, cascade swept across the entire market
- Two DeFi hacks in 24h: Verus Ethereum bridge for $11.6M and a separate crypto bridge for $11M - pressure on ETH sentiment is obvious
👥 Traders yesterday
- A whale opened a 25x short on ETH for 23,151 ETH ($50.55M), liquidation at $2,288 - simultaneously a 20x long on BTC for 323.72 BTC ($25.27M), liquidation at $70,325
- Harvard cut IBIT by 43% to $117M and fully exited BlackRock's ETH ETF ($86.8M) - per SEC filings
- CFTC launched AI monitoring of insider trading, including tracking US traders on Polymarket via VPN
#digest
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Evening. BTC $76,350 (-2.2% on the day)
Monday accelerated the decline - PDL $76,666 broken, price moved below with no meaningful levels in between.
What changed vs. morning:
- Morning long thesis failed: PDL $76,666 broken to the downside and held below, all 4 timeframes now bearish
- $78,325 and $78,564 were never tested - price moved in one direction from the open
- CME gap $78,325-$79,210 remains unfilled, now even further from current price
Session dynamics:
Asia opened around $78,066 and steadily drifted to $77,074 - slope of -1.18%, no bounces. London continued: range expanded, closed near $76,409. NY added pressure: first hour broke the lower boundary of its range and held below, currently $76,307.
Onchain/derivatives:
Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market holds a call skew for the third consecutive day, even as price has lost over $1,700 from Friday's close. OI barely changed on the decline - positions not being cut, longs sitting tight. Coinbase again at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been softer for several days running. Tomorrow watching whether $76,000 holds - below that, no notable levels until $75,000.
Fifth consecutive down day, Fear & Greed 28, every session in the red - Monday closing at new weekly lows.
#evening
Monday accelerated the decline - PDL $76,666 broken, price moved below with no meaningful levels in between.
What changed vs. morning:
- Morning long thesis failed: PDL $76,666 broken to the downside and held below, all 4 timeframes now bearish
- $78,325 and $78,564 were never tested - price moved in one direction from the open
- CME gap $78,325-$79,210 remains unfilled, now even further from current price
Session dynamics:
Asia opened around $78,066 and steadily drifted to $77,074 - slope of -1.18%, no bounces. London continued: range expanded, closed near $76,409. NY added pressure: first hour broke the lower boundary of its range and held below, currently $76,307.
Onchain/derivatives:
Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market holds a call skew for the third consecutive day, even as price has lost over $1,700 from Friday's close. OI barely changed on the decline - positions not being cut, longs sitting tight. Coinbase again at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been softer for several days running. Tomorrow watching whether $76,000 holds - below that, no notable levels until $75,000.
Fifth consecutive down day, Fear & Greed 28, every session in the red - Monday closing at new weekly lows.
#evening
❤1