DXY pulse
DXY: 98.58 (+0.29% d/d)
US10Y: 4.46% (+0.05) | VIX: 18.0
BTC 24h: +0.55%
Current mode: neutral/mixed. If DXY continues rising with elevated VIX - pressure on crypto risk remains.
#dxy
DXY: 98.58 (+0.29% d/d)
US10Y: 4.46% (+0.05) | VIX: 18.0
BTC 24h: +0.55%
Current mode: neutral/mixed. If DXY continues rising with elevated VIX - pressure on crypto risk remains.
#dxy
❤1
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- CPI 3.8% didn't crash the market: BTC digested the data and recovered above $81,000
- Hyperliquid ETF debuted in the US with $1.2M on day one - called a "very strong" start
- Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: calls BTC "the new gold for people under 40"
📉 Bearish factors
- April CPI 3.8% vs. forecast 3.7%, energy +17.9% YoY - the Fed is now definitely in no rush to ease
- MARA: net loss $1.3B in Q1 2026, revenue fell 18% to $174.6M, BTC holdings down 26% to 35,303 BTC
- BTC perpetual futures funding rate moved out of negative territory to 6% - traders are nervous at $82,000
Inflation data and market reaction create an interesting contrast, but traders are clearly in no hurry to celebrate.
👥 Traders yesterday
- MARA sold ~$1.1B in BTC to repay debt, while hashrate grew 33% to 72.2 EH/s - operationally growing, financially burning
- Bear markets historically last at least 350 days, ~65% has passed; the bottom has never formed without touching the 350-day MA (~$47,000)
- BTC open interest posted its largest increase of 2026 - historically this level of overheating has ended in liquidations
- Ethereum Foundation reshuffles Protocol team: Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko out, new co-leads - Will Corcoran (zkVM), Kev Wedderburn (zkEVM), Fredrik (security)
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- CPI 3.8% didn't crash the market: BTC digested the data and recovered above $81,000
- Hyperliquid ETF debuted in the US with $1.2M on day one - called a "very strong" start
- Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: calls BTC "the new gold for people under 40"
📉 Bearish factors
- April CPI 3.8% vs. forecast 3.7%, energy +17.9% YoY - the Fed is now definitely in no rush to ease
- MARA: net loss $1.3B in Q1 2026, revenue fell 18% to $174.6M, BTC holdings down 26% to 35,303 BTC
- BTC perpetual futures funding rate moved out of negative territory to 6% - traders are nervous at $82,000
Inflation data and market reaction create an interesting contrast, but traders are clearly in no hurry to celebrate.
👥 Traders yesterday
- MARA sold ~$1.1B in BTC to repay debt, while hashrate grew 33% to 72.2 EH/s - operationally growing, financially burning
- Bear markets historically last at least 350 days, ~65% has passed; the bottom has never formed without touching the 350-day MA (~$47,000)
- BTC open interest posted its largest increase of 2026 - historically this level of overheating has ended in liquidations
- Ethereum Foundation reshuffles Protocol team: Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko out, new co-leads - Will Corcoran (zkVM), Kev Wedderburn (zkEVM), Fredrik (security)
#digest
❤2
S&P 500
7,401 (+3.67% to yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,339 - 7,425 (1.21%).
S&P 500 gained nearly 4% on the day, while BTC lost a third of a percent - this divergence suggests capital is flowing into equities rather than crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) dropped to 18, reflecting a notable decline in investor anxiety following the sharp rally. Nasdaq, however, closed in the red, meaning S&P 500 gains are currently driven by the broader market rather than the tech sector - making the momentum less uniform in the near term.
#sp500
7,401 (+3.67% to yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,339 - 7,425 (1.21%).
S&P 500 gained nearly 4% on the day, while BTC lost a third of a percent - this divergence suggests capital is flowing into equities rather than crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) dropped to 18, reflecting a notable decline in investor anxiety following the sharp rally. Nasdaq, however, closed in the red, meaning S&P 500 gains are currently driven by the broader market rather than the tech sector - making the momentum less uniform in the near term.
#sp500
❤2
Evening. BTC $78,840 (-1.7% on the day)
London broke the morning thesis - and NY didn't argue.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish scenario failed: Monthly Open $80,797 didn't hold, price dropped below PDL $79,801 - both key conditions violated
- PDH $81,757 never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Timeframe picture shifted: three bearish vs. one bullish
Session dynamics:
Asia was quiet, closed slightly positive at $81,027. London reversed everything: 3%+ range decline, closing at $78,827. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and stayed below - sellers are holding the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved during the price decline - positions aren't closing, pressure isn't easing. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged: no unified directional positioning. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues for the second day in a row - Western demand is weaker. Meanwhile Deribit put/call at 0.66 - calls still dominate, options market hasn't repositioned for the downside.
Wednesday repeated yesterday's pattern: Asia neutral, London set the direction, NY confirmed.
#evening
London broke the morning thesis - and NY didn't argue.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish scenario failed: Monthly Open $80,797 didn't hold, price dropped below PDL $79,801 - both key conditions violated
- PDH $81,757 never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Timeframe picture shifted: three bearish vs. one bullish
Session dynamics:
Asia was quiet, closed slightly positive at $81,027. London reversed everything: 3%+ range decline, closing at $78,827. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and stayed below - sellers are holding the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved during the price decline - positions aren't closing, pressure isn't easing. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged: no unified directional positioning. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues for the second day in a row - Western demand is weaker. Meanwhile Deribit put/call at 0.66 - calls still dominate, options market hasn't repositioned for the downside.
Wednesday repeated yesterday's pattern: Asia neutral, London set the direction, NY confirmed.
#evening
❤1
BTC $79,850 (-2.2%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
F&G dropped from 49 to 34 in two days - a sharp shift in sentiment. The week opened 3.4% below the previous close, price broke the Monthly Open at $80,791 to the downside and is currently trading in the lower part of the weekly range.
OI fell by $1.25B - longs are exiting, not shorts being added. Spot/futures ratio x9.3: there is no real buyer behind the move, only the derivatives market. Until price reclaims $80,791, bounces look like a breather, not a reversal.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,791 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above it changes the picture
$78,714 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A break below opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,791 and a breakdown of $78,714
Invalidation: hourly candle close above $80,791 with volume recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
F&G dropped from 49 to 34 in two days - a sharp shift in sentiment. The week opened 3.4% below the previous close, price broke the Monthly Open at $80,791 to the downside and is currently trading in the lower part of the weekly range.
OI fell by $1.25B - longs are exiting, not shorts being added. Spot/futures ratio x9.3: there is no real buyer behind the move, only the derivatives market. Until price reclaims $80,791, bounces look like a breather, not a reversal.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,791 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above it changes the picture
$78,714 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A break below opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,791 and a breakdown of $78,714
Invalidation: hourly candle close above $80,791 with volume recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤1
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Charles Schwab launched spot BTC and ETH trading for retail clients at a 0.75% fee - a broker with $12T AUM and 40M accounts entering crypto directly for the first time
- Moody's assigned its highest rating to tokenized funds from Fidelity and BlackRock - the RWA segment receives regulatory cover from the largest rating agency
- JPMorgan launched tokenized fund JLTXX on Ethereum to meet GENIUS Act reserve requirements - stablecoin issuers' funds will flow into Treasuries and overnight repos
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC ETF outflows totaled $635M in a single day - the largest one-day outflow in recent weeks
- CryptoQuant flags that BTC has reached the "major bear market resistance" zone - analysts warn of a risk that the rally breaks down
- KULR Technology moved 300 BTC (~$24.4M) to Coinbase Prime wallets - on-chain analysts read this as preparation for a sale
⚡️ Key event: Kelp DAO and Aave - $292M return after exploit
117,132 rsETH will be returned via a LayerZero OFT adapter within two weeks from the Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe. Kelp plans to unlock withdrawals within 24 hours after the first tranche. In parallel, a NY judge postponed the hearing on Aave's application to unfreeze $71M in ETH - meaning part of the liquidity remains locked for at least several more weeks.
👥 Traders yesterday
- If BTC drops to $77K, the market could face over $5B in long liquidations - one trader opened a short from current levels
- A large address holds a $90M BTC short with an average entry of $67,000 and a $45M ETH short with an average entry of $2,100 - unrealized losses have already exceeded $15M
- Solana DEX trading volume fell to 94% of Ethereum's level - a 12-month low; in January it was 218%
- Metaplanet recorded a net loss of ¥114.5B ($725.6M) in Q1 due to BTC revaluation, while revenue grew 251% YoY to $19.5M
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Charles Schwab launched spot BTC and ETH trading for retail clients at a 0.75% fee - a broker with $12T AUM and 40M accounts entering crypto directly for the first time
- Moody's assigned its highest rating to tokenized funds from Fidelity and BlackRock - the RWA segment receives regulatory cover from the largest rating agency
- JPMorgan launched tokenized fund JLTXX on Ethereum to meet GENIUS Act reserve requirements - stablecoin issuers' funds will flow into Treasuries and overnight repos
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC ETF outflows totaled $635M in a single day - the largest one-day outflow in recent weeks
- CryptoQuant flags that BTC has reached the "major bear market resistance" zone - analysts warn of a risk that the rally breaks down
- KULR Technology moved 300 BTC (~$24.4M) to Coinbase Prime wallets - on-chain analysts read this as preparation for a sale
⚡️ Key event: Kelp DAO and Aave - $292M return after exploit
117,132 rsETH will be returned via a LayerZero OFT adapter within two weeks from the Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe. Kelp plans to unlock withdrawals within 24 hours after the first tranche. In parallel, a NY judge postponed the hearing on Aave's application to unfreeze $71M in ETH - meaning part of the liquidity remains locked for at least several more weeks.
👥 Traders yesterday
- If BTC drops to $77K, the market could face over $5B in long liquidations - one trader opened a short from current levels
- A large address holds a $90M BTC short with an average entry of $67,000 and a $45M ETH short with an average entry of $2,100 - unrealized losses have already exceeded $15M
- Solana DEX trading volume fell to 94% of Ethereum's level - a 12-month low; in January it was 218%
- Metaplanet recorded a net loss of ¥114.5B ($725.6M) in Q1 due to BTC revaluation, while revenue grew 251% YoY to $19.5M
#digest
❤2
Evening. BTC $81,435 (+3.3% on the day)
Three sessions up in a row - Thursday reversed the picture after two bearish days.
What changed vs morning:
- Monthly Open $80,791 broken and holding above - morning condition for a structural shift fulfilled
- The thesis of no real buyer is in question: move continued through London and NY without reversal
- By timeframe: 3 bullish vs 1 bearish - mirror flip vs yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia printed a weak but directional positive - closed at $79,746. London did the heavy lifting: nearly +2% bias, closing at $81,301. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers did not give up the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI rose alongside price - positions opening in the direction of the move, not against it. Funding on Bybit and OKX pointing in opposite directions with OI divergence between Bybit and Binance - the move is uneven rather than consolidated. Deribit put/call 0.67: calls dominating, options market positioning for continued upside.
The rally is structurally real, but without unified positioning across venues - consolidation above $80,791 tomorrow will show how sustainable it is.
#evening
Three sessions up in a row - Thursday reversed the picture after two bearish days.
What changed vs morning:
- Monthly Open $80,791 broken and holding above - morning condition for a structural shift fulfilled
- The thesis of no real buyer is in question: move continued through London and NY without reversal
- By timeframe: 3 bullish vs 1 bearish - mirror flip vs yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia printed a weak but directional positive - closed at $79,746. London did the heavy lifting: nearly +2% bias, closing at $81,301. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers did not give up the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI rose alongside price - positions opening in the direction of the move, not against it. Funding on Bybit and OKX pointing in opposite directions with OI divergence between Bybit and Binance - the move is uneven rather than consolidated. Deribit put/call 0.67: calls dominating, options market positioning for continued upside.
The rally is structurally real, but without unified positioning across venues - consolidation above $80,791 tomorrow will show how sustainable it is.
#evening
❤2
BTC $80,393 (+1.6%)
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Yesterday price dipped to $78,869, today it's already trading above $80K - the pullback was bought. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee, the market reacted accordingly, and F&G jumped from 34 to 43 in a single day. Regulatory tailwinds provided the catalyst, but there is still no consolidation above the Monthly Open at $80,990.
The key factor today is L/S at 0.64 with rising OI. Shorts have built up significantly, funding is negative (-0.0042%) - short positions are paying to hold. If price pushes through PDH $81,999, those positions will begin forced liquidation. Spot/Futures ratio x9.0 - the move will be speculative with limited real spot buying behind it, so the impulse may be sharp but short-lived.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,999 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A breakout activates pressure on short positions
$80,990 - resistance/support, Monthly Open. Consolidation above shifts the tone of the day
$78,869 - support, yesterday's low. A return here invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $80,990 and a breakout of $81,999 with rising OI
Invalidation: drop below $80,990 and a break of the hourly structure to the downside
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Yesterday price dipped to $78,869, today it's already trading above $80K - the pullback was bought. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee, the market reacted accordingly, and F&G jumped from 34 to 43 in a single day. Regulatory tailwinds provided the catalyst, but there is still no consolidation above the Monthly Open at $80,990.
The key factor today is L/S at 0.64 with rising OI. Shorts have built up significantly, funding is negative (-0.0042%) - short positions are paying to hold. If price pushes through PDH $81,999, those positions will begin forced liquidation. Spot/Futures ratio x9.0 - the move will be speculative with limited real spot buying behind it, so the impulse may be sharp but short-lived.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,999 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A breakout activates pressure on short positions
$80,990 - resistance/support, Monthly Open. Consolidation above shifts the tone of the day
$78,869 - support, yesterday's low. A return here invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $80,990 and a breakout of $81,999 with rising OI
Invalidation: drop below $80,990 and a break of the hourly structure to the downside
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤2
Currently I am building and testing a 15m crypto system in public - paper trading on BingX.
Stats from 30 April:
• Trades: 173
• Win rate: 50.3%
• Total: +35.8R
• Avg per trade: +0.21R
• Max drawdown on the R curve: −13.2R (from equity peak in R)
Win rate sits near a coin flip, but expectancy per trade is positive on the full log. On the dashboard model (0.5% per 1R) that is roughly +18% from a 100% start; the orange floor is an 8% trailing drawdown from the account peak (prop-style limit). Paper only so fees, slippage, min size, and execution will cut live results.
My next steps:
- keep the core strategy unchanged while the full sample stays green;
- test tweaks only in shadow paths on the server (stats in the background);
- auto-disable weak variants via risk rules;
- ship to production only settings that hold up on enough trades;
- one more week of stats, then a real account, after that I'll push automated signals in this channel.
Update in about a week. Have a great day!
Stats from 30 April:
• Trades: 173
• Win rate: 50.3%
• Total: +35.8R
• Avg per trade: +0.21R
• Max drawdown on the R curve: −13.2R (from equity peak in R)
Win rate sits near a coin flip, but expectancy per trade is positive on the full log. On the dashboard model (0.5% per 1R) that is roughly +18% from a 100% start; the orange floor is an 8% trailing drawdown from the account peak (prop-style limit). Paper only so fees, slippage, min size, and execution will cut live results.
My next steps:
- keep the core strategy unchanged while the full sample stays green;
- test tweaks only in shadow paths on the server (stats in the background);
- auto-disable weak variants via risk rules;
- ship to production only settings that hold up on enough trades;
- one more week of stats, then a real account, after that I'll push automated signals in this channel.
Update in about a week. Have a great day!
❤2
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Hana Bank acquires 6.55% of Dunamu for $668M - bank capital entering crypto infrastructure directly, not via ETF
- Strategy added 11,707 BTC through STRC issuance with $1.5B trading volume - corporate appetite for BTC holds
- Jane Street increased positions in ETH funds, Riot, Coinbase and Galaxy while cutting BTC-ETF exposure - sector rotation continues
📉 Bearish factors
- Thorchain halted trading after a $10M exploit, RUNE -12% - liquidity frozen
- Open interest on Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX down a combined $1.25B following CPI data - leverage being cut
- BTC failing to hold above the 200-day MA, corporate buying down 80% week-over-week per Bitfinex data
👥 Traders yesterday
- Forward Industries holds nearly 7M SOL at an average of $232 vs. current price of $91 - unrealized loss of ~$1B, staking generates $17.38M per quarter but that's cold comfort
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair in a 54-45 vote, replacing Powell on May 15; previously called BTC an important asset
- CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, next step - full vote in both chambers
- CME and Nasdaq to launch crypto index futures (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM) on June 8 pending regulatory approval
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Hana Bank acquires 6.55% of Dunamu for $668M - bank capital entering crypto infrastructure directly, not via ETF
- Strategy added 11,707 BTC through STRC issuance with $1.5B trading volume - corporate appetite for BTC holds
- Jane Street increased positions in ETH funds, Riot, Coinbase and Galaxy while cutting BTC-ETF exposure - sector rotation continues
📉 Bearish factors
- Thorchain halted trading after a $10M exploit, RUNE -12% - liquidity frozen
- Open interest on Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX down a combined $1.25B following CPI data - leverage being cut
- BTC failing to hold above the 200-day MA, corporate buying down 80% week-over-week per Bitfinex data
👥 Traders yesterday
- Forward Industries holds nearly 7M SOL at an average of $232 vs. current price of $91 - unrealized loss of ~$1B, staking generates $17.38M per quarter but that's cold comfort
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair in a 54-45 vote, replacing Powell on May 15; previously called BTC an important asset
- CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, next step - full vote in both chambers
- CME and Nasdaq to launch crypto index futures (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM) on June 8 pending regulatory approval
#digest
❤1
Evening. BTC $79,171 (-2.8% for the day)
Thursday's gains have been returned - Friday erased the entire previous day's move.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish thesis failed: PDH $81,999 was never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Monthly Open $80,990 didn't hold - price dropped below during the Asian session
- Support at $78,869 (yesterday's low) is holding for now, but BTC is trading right against it
Session dynamics:
Asia started selling off immediately - nearly -1% bias on a narrow range, closed at $80,815. London increased pressure: range nearly 3%, bias -1.77%, close at $79,150. NY continues in the same direction; the first hour played out inside the range with no clean breakout.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI dropped alongside price - longs were liquidated, peak cascade around $97M. Bybit and OKX funding rates are pointing in opposite directions, while the OI divergence between Bybit and Binance is notable - positioning differs across venues. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been weaker than Asian for the third day running. Deribit put/call 0.69 - calls still dominate, the options market has not repositioned for downside.
Three consecutive bearish sessions have pushed BTC back to early-week levels - Friday is closing without a recovery.
#evening
Thursday's gains have been returned - Friday erased the entire previous day's move.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish thesis failed: PDH $81,999 was never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Monthly Open $80,990 didn't hold - price dropped below during the Asian session
- Support at $78,869 (yesterday's low) is holding for now, but BTC is trading right against it
Session dynamics:
Asia started selling off immediately - nearly -1% bias on a narrow range, closed at $80,815. London increased pressure: range nearly 3%, bias -1.77%, close at $79,150. NY continues in the same direction; the first hour played out inside the range with no clean breakout.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI dropped alongside price - longs were liquidated, peak cascade around $97M. Bybit and OKX funding rates are pointing in opposite directions, while the OI divergence between Bybit and Binance is notable - positioning differs across venues. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been weaker than Asian for the third day running. Deribit put/call 0.69 - calls still dominate, the options market has not repositioned for downside.
Three consecutive bearish sessions have pushed BTC back to early-week levels - Friday is closing without a recovery.
#evening
BTC $78,994 (-2.1%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
OI dropped 9.1% over the past 24 hours - this is not a gradual exit, but a liquidation cascade. Longs were forcibly wiped out, with the largest cascade reaching approximately $97M. Price broke below $80K and is now trading at yesterday's low of $78,610.
Macro adds further pressure: US10Y rose to 4.59%, S&P -1.2%, Gold -2.6% - risk-off across all fronts simultaneously.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,946 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above this level fundamentally changes the picture
$81,624 - resistance, PDH. Second ceiling if the first one is broken
$78,610 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. Price is already here - a breakdown opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,946 and a volume-confirmed breakdown of $78,610
Invalidation: close above $80,946 accompanied by OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
OI dropped 9.1% over the past 24 hours - this is not a gradual exit, but a liquidation cascade. Longs were forcibly wiped out, with the largest cascade reaching approximately $97M. Price broke below $80K and is now trading at yesterday's low of $78,610.
Macro adds further pressure: US10Y rose to 4.59%, S&P -1.2%, Gold -2.6% - risk-off across all fronts simultaneously.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,946 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above this level fundamentally changes the picture
$81,624 - resistance, PDH. Second ceiling if the first one is broken
$78,610 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. Price is already here - a breakdown opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,946 and a volume-confirmed breakdown of $78,610
Invalidation: close above $80,946 accompanied by OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Binance captured 78% of net CEX inflows in May: exchanges attracted $3.3B, stablecoins $2.5B, BTC-ETF $1.5B
- Kraken migrated kBTC ($333M TVL) to Chainlink CCIP - total TVL growth across LINK-integrated protocols reached $3B over several weeks
- BTC mining difficulty rose 3.12% to 136.61T; hashrate broke above 1 ZH/s for the first time since February
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC-ETFs lost $1B in a week, ending a six-week inflow streak
- Strategy disclosed a possible BTC sale to redeem $1.38B in convertible bonds - deal closes May 19
- THORChain suspended operations following a $7.4M exploit across BTC, ETH, BNB Chain and Base networks
⚡️ Key event: CME and NYSE demand Hyperliquid regulation
CME and NYSE petitioned US authorities to regulate Hyperliquid - the platform operates without KYC while perpetual futures volumes on certain days exceed the largest CEXs. HYPE surged 16% in 24 hours but began pulling back after the Bloomberg publication. Regulatory pressure on the largest decentralized perp market is reshaping the risk profile of the entire segment.
👥 Traders yesterday
- BTC is trading at the short-term whale cost basis of $79,000-80,000 - a CryptoQuant analyst notes both previous tests of this zone (October 2025 and January 2026) ended in capitulation
- JPMorgan records ETH and altcoin underperformance vs BTC since 2023: upgrades reduced L2 fees, weakening ETH burn and increasing supply
- The CLARITY Act will split assets into those eligible for funds and banks versus everything else - traders believe even after passage no broad altseason will follow
- April 2026 had only three days with zero DeFi protocol hacks; CertiK co-founder links the rise in attacks to AI tools that simplify vulnerability discovery
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Binance captured 78% of net CEX inflows in May: exchanges attracted $3.3B, stablecoins $2.5B, BTC-ETF $1.5B
- Kraken migrated kBTC ($333M TVL) to Chainlink CCIP - total TVL growth across LINK-integrated protocols reached $3B over several weeks
- BTC mining difficulty rose 3.12% to 136.61T; hashrate broke above 1 ZH/s for the first time since February
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC-ETFs lost $1B in a week, ending a six-week inflow streak
- Strategy disclosed a possible BTC sale to redeem $1.38B in convertible bonds - deal closes May 19
- THORChain suspended operations following a $7.4M exploit across BTC, ETH, BNB Chain and Base networks
⚡️ Key event: CME and NYSE demand Hyperliquid regulation
CME and NYSE petitioned US authorities to regulate Hyperliquid - the platform operates without KYC while perpetual futures volumes on certain days exceed the largest CEXs. HYPE surged 16% in 24 hours but began pulling back after the Bloomberg publication. Regulatory pressure on the largest decentralized perp market is reshaping the risk profile of the entire segment.
👥 Traders yesterday
- BTC is trading at the short-term whale cost basis of $79,000-80,000 - a CryptoQuant analyst notes both previous tests of this zone (October 2025 and January 2026) ended in capitulation
- JPMorgan records ETH and altcoin underperformance vs BTC since 2023: upgrades reduced L2 fees, weakening ETH burn and increasing supply
- The CLARITY Act will split assets into those eligible for funds and banks versus everything else - traders believe even after passage no broad altseason will follow
- April 2026 had only three days with zero DeFi protocol hacks; CertiK co-founder links the rise in attacks to AI tools that simplify vulnerability discovery
#digest
❤1
Evening. BTC $78,219 (-1.2% on the day)
PDL $78,610 failed to hold - Saturday pushed price below yesterday's low.
What changed vs morning:
- PDL $78,610 broken to the downside - the level that was key support in the morning now acts as resistance
- By timeframe: 3 bearish vs 1 bullish - structure has not recovered
Session dynamics:
Asia sold off through the entire range, closed at $78,370. London continued lower - negative bias, close at $78,239. NY opened weak: first hour broke the range high to the upside and held above it, minor bounce off the bottom.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI declined alongside price - longs continue to exit, cascade around $78M. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand noticeably weaker. Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market has not repositioned for downside, calls still dominate. Onchain proxy reads bullish - the divergence between derivatives positioning and underlying metrics stays on my radar.
Third consecutive down day, Fear & Greed at 31 - Saturday closing at weekly lows.
#evening
PDL $78,610 failed to hold - Saturday pushed price below yesterday's low.
What changed vs morning:
- PDL $78,610 broken to the downside - the level that was key support in the morning now acts as resistance
- By timeframe: 3 bearish vs 1 bullish - structure has not recovered
Session dynamics:
Asia sold off through the entire range, closed at $78,370. London continued lower - negative bias, close at $78,239. NY opened weak: first hour broke the range high to the upside and held above it, minor bounce off the bottom.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI declined alongside price - longs continue to exit, cascade around $78M. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand noticeably weaker. Deribit put/call 0.69 - options market has not repositioned for downside, calls still dominate. Onchain proxy reads bullish - the divergence between derivatives positioning and underlying metrics stays on my radar.
Third consecutive down day, Fear & Greed at 31 - Saturday closing at weekly lows.
#evening
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