BTC $81,036 (+0.2%)
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
After yesterday's CPI, price pulled back from $82,350 and returned to Monthly Open $80,797 - essentially the same point where the entire week began. Three days of movement, zero progress.
L/S 0.71 - the short bias persists, with OI continuing to rise. This means new short positions are being opened right here, at support. If buyers hold the Monthly Open and price moves above PDH $81,757, those shorts will come under pressure - without any major news needed as a catalyst.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,757 - resistance, PDH. A breakout with volume activates pressure on short positions
$80,797 - support, Monthly Open. Price has held above this level for the third consecutive day
$79,801 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A move below this level invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ bullish - holding $80,797 and breaking $81,757 with rising OI
Invalidation: close below $80,797
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
After yesterday's CPI, price pulled back from $82,350 and returned to Monthly Open $80,797 - essentially the same point where the entire week began. Three days of movement, zero progress.
L/S 0.71 - the short bias persists, with OI continuing to rise. This means new short positions are being opened right here, at support. If buyers hold the Monthly Open and price moves above PDH $81,757, those shorts will come under pressure - without any major news needed as a catalyst.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,757 - resistance, PDH. A breakout with volume activates pressure on short positions
$80,797 - support, Monthly Open. Price has held above this level for the third consecutive day
$79,801 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A move below this level invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ bullish - holding $80,797 and breaking $81,757 with rising OI
Invalidation: close below $80,797
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤1
DXY pulse
DXY: 98.58 (+0.29% d/d)
US10Y: 4.46% (+0.05) | VIX: 18.0
BTC 24h: +0.55%
Current mode: neutral/mixed. If DXY continues rising with elevated VIX - pressure on crypto risk remains.
#dxy
DXY: 98.58 (+0.29% d/d)
US10Y: 4.46% (+0.05) | VIX: 18.0
BTC 24h: +0.55%
Current mode: neutral/mixed. If DXY continues rising with elevated VIX - pressure on crypto risk remains.
#dxy
❤1
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- CPI 3.8% didn't crash the market: BTC digested the data and recovered above $81,000
- Hyperliquid ETF debuted in the US with $1.2M on day one - called a "very strong" start
- Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: calls BTC "the new gold for people under 40"
📉 Bearish factors
- April CPI 3.8% vs. forecast 3.7%, energy +17.9% YoY - the Fed is now definitely in no rush to ease
- MARA: net loss $1.3B in Q1 2026, revenue fell 18% to $174.6M, BTC holdings down 26% to 35,303 BTC
- BTC perpetual futures funding rate moved out of negative territory to 6% - traders are nervous at $82,000
Inflation data and market reaction create an interesting contrast, but traders are clearly in no hurry to celebrate.
👥 Traders yesterday
- MARA sold ~$1.1B in BTC to repay debt, while hashrate grew 33% to 72.2 EH/s - operationally growing, financially burning
- Bear markets historically last at least 350 days, ~65% has passed; the bottom has never formed without touching the 350-day MA (~$47,000)
- BTC open interest posted its largest increase of 2026 - historically this level of overheating has ended in liquidations
- Ethereum Foundation reshuffles Protocol team: Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko out, new co-leads - Will Corcoran (zkVM), Kev Wedderburn (zkEVM), Fredrik (security)
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- CPI 3.8% didn't crash the market: BTC digested the data and recovered above $81,000
- Hyperliquid ETF debuted in the US with $1.2M on day one - called a "very strong" start
- Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: calls BTC "the new gold for people under 40"
📉 Bearish factors
- April CPI 3.8% vs. forecast 3.7%, energy +17.9% YoY - the Fed is now definitely in no rush to ease
- MARA: net loss $1.3B in Q1 2026, revenue fell 18% to $174.6M, BTC holdings down 26% to 35,303 BTC
- BTC perpetual futures funding rate moved out of negative territory to 6% - traders are nervous at $82,000
Inflation data and market reaction create an interesting contrast, but traders are clearly in no hurry to celebrate.
👥 Traders yesterday
- MARA sold ~$1.1B in BTC to repay debt, while hashrate grew 33% to 72.2 EH/s - operationally growing, financially burning
- Bear markets historically last at least 350 days, ~65% has passed; the bottom has never formed without touching the 350-day MA (~$47,000)
- BTC open interest posted its largest increase of 2026 - historically this level of overheating has ended in liquidations
- Ethereum Foundation reshuffles Protocol team: Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko out, new co-leads - Will Corcoran (zkVM), Kev Wedderburn (zkEVM), Fredrik (security)
#digest
❤2
S&P 500
7,401 (+3.67% to yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,339 - 7,425 (1.21%).
S&P 500 gained nearly 4% on the day, while BTC lost a third of a percent - this divergence suggests capital is flowing into equities rather than crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) dropped to 18, reflecting a notable decline in investor anxiety following the sharp rally. Nasdaq, however, closed in the red, meaning S&P 500 gains are currently driven by the broader market rather than the tech sector - making the momentum less uniform in the near term.
#sp500
7,401 (+3.67% to yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,339 - 7,425 (1.21%).
S&P 500 gained nearly 4% on the day, while BTC lost a third of a percent - this divergence suggests capital is flowing into equities rather than crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) dropped to 18, reflecting a notable decline in investor anxiety following the sharp rally. Nasdaq, however, closed in the red, meaning S&P 500 gains are currently driven by the broader market rather than the tech sector - making the momentum less uniform in the near term.
#sp500
❤2
Evening. BTC $78,840 (-1.7% on the day)
London broke the morning thesis - and NY didn't argue.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish scenario failed: Monthly Open $80,797 didn't hold, price dropped below PDL $79,801 - both key conditions violated
- PDH $81,757 never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Timeframe picture shifted: three bearish vs. one bullish
Session dynamics:
Asia was quiet, closed slightly positive at $81,027. London reversed everything: 3%+ range decline, closing at $78,827. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and stayed below - sellers are holding the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved during the price decline - positions aren't closing, pressure isn't easing. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged: no unified directional positioning. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues for the second day in a row - Western demand is weaker. Meanwhile Deribit put/call at 0.66 - calls still dominate, options market hasn't repositioned for the downside.
Wednesday repeated yesterday's pattern: Asia neutral, London set the direction, NY confirmed.
#evening
London broke the morning thesis - and NY didn't argue.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish scenario failed: Monthly Open $80,797 didn't hold, price dropped below PDL $79,801 - both key conditions violated
- PDH $81,757 never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Timeframe picture shifted: three bearish vs. one bullish
Session dynamics:
Asia was quiet, closed slightly positive at $81,027. London reversed everything: 3%+ range decline, closing at $78,827. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and stayed below - sellers are holding the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved during the price decline - positions aren't closing, pressure isn't easing. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged: no unified directional positioning. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues for the second day in a row - Western demand is weaker. Meanwhile Deribit put/call at 0.66 - calls still dominate, options market hasn't repositioned for the downside.
Wednesday repeated yesterday's pattern: Asia neutral, London set the direction, NY confirmed.
#evening
❤1
BTC $79,850 (-2.2%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
F&G dropped from 49 to 34 in two days - a sharp shift in sentiment. The week opened 3.4% below the previous close, price broke the Monthly Open at $80,791 to the downside and is currently trading in the lower part of the weekly range.
OI fell by $1.25B - longs are exiting, not shorts being added. Spot/futures ratio x9.3: there is no real buyer behind the move, only the derivatives market. Until price reclaims $80,791, bounces look like a breather, not a reversal.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,791 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above it changes the picture
$78,714 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A break below opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,791 and a breakdown of $78,714
Invalidation: hourly candle close above $80,791 with volume recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
F&G dropped from 49 to 34 in two days - a sharp shift in sentiment. The week opened 3.4% below the previous close, price broke the Monthly Open at $80,791 to the downside and is currently trading in the lower part of the weekly range.
OI fell by $1.25B - longs are exiting, not shorts being added. Spot/futures ratio x9.3: there is no real buyer behind the move, only the derivatives market. Until price reclaims $80,791, bounces look like a breather, not a reversal.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,791 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above it changes the picture
$78,714 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A break below opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,791 and a breakdown of $78,714
Invalidation: hourly candle close above $80,791 with volume recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤1
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Charles Schwab launched spot BTC and ETH trading for retail clients at a 0.75% fee - a broker with $12T AUM and 40M accounts entering crypto directly for the first time
- Moody's assigned its highest rating to tokenized funds from Fidelity and BlackRock - the RWA segment receives regulatory cover from the largest rating agency
- JPMorgan launched tokenized fund JLTXX on Ethereum to meet GENIUS Act reserve requirements - stablecoin issuers' funds will flow into Treasuries and overnight repos
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC ETF outflows totaled $635M in a single day - the largest one-day outflow in recent weeks
- CryptoQuant flags that BTC has reached the "major bear market resistance" zone - analysts warn of a risk that the rally breaks down
- KULR Technology moved 300 BTC (~$24.4M) to Coinbase Prime wallets - on-chain analysts read this as preparation for a sale
⚡️ Key event: Kelp DAO and Aave - $292M return after exploit
117,132 rsETH will be returned via a LayerZero OFT adapter within two weeks from the Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe. Kelp plans to unlock withdrawals within 24 hours after the first tranche. In parallel, a NY judge postponed the hearing on Aave's application to unfreeze $71M in ETH - meaning part of the liquidity remains locked for at least several more weeks.
👥 Traders yesterday
- If BTC drops to $77K, the market could face over $5B in long liquidations - one trader opened a short from current levels
- A large address holds a $90M BTC short with an average entry of $67,000 and a $45M ETH short with an average entry of $2,100 - unrealized losses have already exceeded $15M
- Solana DEX trading volume fell to 94% of Ethereum's level - a 12-month low; in January it was 218%
- Metaplanet recorded a net loss of ¥114.5B ($725.6M) in Q1 due to BTC revaluation, while revenue grew 251% YoY to $19.5M
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Charles Schwab launched spot BTC and ETH trading for retail clients at a 0.75% fee - a broker with $12T AUM and 40M accounts entering crypto directly for the first time
- Moody's assigned its highest rating to tokenized funds from Fidelity and BlackRock - the RWA segment receives regulatory cover from the largest rating agency
- JPMorgan launched tokenized fund JLTXX on Ethereum to meet GENIUS Act reserve requirements - stablecoin issuers' funds will flow into Treasuries and overnight repos
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC ETF outflows totaled $635M in a single day - the largest one-day outflow in recent weeks
- CryptoQuant flags that BTC has reached the "major bear market resistance" zone - analysts warn of a risk that the rally breaks down
- KULR Technology moved 300 BTC (~$24.4M) to Coinbase Prime wallets - on-chain analysts read this as preparation for a sale
⚡️ Key event: Kelp DAO and Aave - $292M return after exploit
117,132 rsETH will be returned via a LayerZero OFT adapter within two weeks from the Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe. Kelp plans to unlock withdrawals within 24 hours after the first tranche. In parallel, a NY judge postponed the hearing on Aave's application to unfreeze $71M in ETH - meaning part of the liquidity remains locked for at least several more weeks.
👥 Traders yesterday
- If BTC drops to $77K, the market could face over $5B in long liquidations - one trader opened a short from current levels
- A large address holds a $90M BTC short with an average entry of $67,000 and a $45M ETH short with an average entry of $2,100 - unrealized losses have already exceeded $15M
- Solana DEX trading volume fell to 94% of Ethereum's level - a 12-month low; in January it was 218%
- Metaplanet recorded a net loss of ¥114.5B ($725.6M) in Q1 due to BTC revaluation, while revenue grew 251% YoY to $19.5M
#digest
❤2
Evening. BTC $81,435 (+3.3% on the day)
Three sessions up in a row - Thursday reversed the picture after two bearish days.
What changed vs morning:
- Monthly Open $80,791 broken and holding above - morning condition for a structural shift fulfilled
- The thesis of no real buyer is in question: move continued through London and NY without reversal
- By timeframe: 3 bullish vs 1 bearish - mirror flip vs yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia printed a weak but directional positive - closed at $79,746. London did the heavy lifting: nearly +2% bias, closing at $81,301. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers did not give up the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI rose alongside price - positions opening in the direction of the move, not against it. Funding on Bybit and OKX pointing in opposite directions with OI divergence between Bybit and Binance - the move is uneven rather than consolidated. Deribit put/call 0.67: calls dominating, options market positioning for continued upside.
The rally is structurally real, but without unified positioning across venues - consolidation above $80,791 tomorrow will show how sustainable it is.
#evening
Three sessions up in a row - Thursday reversed the picture after two bearish days.
What changed vs morning:
- Monthly Open $80,791 broken and holding above - morning condition for a structural shift fulfilled
- The thesis of no real buyer is in question: move continued through London and NY without reversal
- By timeframe: 3 bullish vs 1 bearish - mirror flip vs yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia printed a weak but directional positive - closed at $79,746. London did the heavy lifting: nearly +2% bias, closing at $81,301. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers did not give up the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI rose alongside price - positions opening in the direction of the move, not against it. Funding on Bybit and OKX pointing in opposite directions with OI divergence between Bybit and Binance - the move is uneven rather than consolidated. Deribit put/call 0.67: calls dominating, options market positioning for continued upside.
The rally is structurally real, but without unified positioning across venues - consolidation above $80,791 tomorrow will show how sustainable it is.
#evening
❤2
BTC $80,393 (+1.6%)
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Yesterday price dipped to $78,869, today it's already trading above $80K - the pullback was bought. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee, the market reacted accordingly, and F&G jumped from 34 to 43 in a single day. Regulatory tailwinds provided the catalyst, but there is still no consolidation above the Monthly Open at $80,990.
The key factor today is L/S at 0.64 with rising OI. Shorts have built up significantly, funding is negative (-0.0042%) - short positions are paying to hold. If price pushes through PDH $81,999, those positions will begin forced liquidation. Spot/Futures ratio x9.0 - the move will be speculative with limited real spot buying behind it, so the impulse may be sharp but short-lived.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,999 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A breakout activates pressure on short positions
$80,990 - resistance/support, Monthly Open. Consolidation above shifts the tone of the day
$78,869 - support, yesterday's low. A return here invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $80,990 and a breakout of $81,999 with rising OI
Invalidation: drop below $80,990 and a break of the hourly structure to the downside
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Yesterday price dipped to $78,869, today it's already trading above $80K - the pullback was bought. The CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee, the market reacted accordingly, and F&G jumped from 34 to 43 in a single day. Regulatory tailwinds provided the catalyst, but there is still no consolidation above the Monthly Open at $80,990.
The key factor today is L/S at 0.64 with rising OI. Shorts have built up significantly, funding is negative (-0.0042%) - short positions are paying to hold. If price pushes through PDH $81,999, those positions will begin forced liquidation. Spot/Futures ratio x9.0 - the move will be speculative with limited real spot buying behind it, so the impulse may be sharp but short-lived.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,999 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. A breakout activates pressure on short positions
$80,990 - resistance/support, Monthly Open. Consolidation above shifts the tone of the day
$78,869 - support, yesterday's low. A return here invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ Bullish - consolidation above $80,990 and a breakout of $81,999 with rising OI
Invalidation: drop below $80,990 and a break of the hourly structure to the downside
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤2
Currently I am building and testing a 15m crypto system in public - paper trading on BingX.
Stats from 30 April:
• Trades: 173
• Win rate: 50.3%
• Total: +35.8R
• Avg per trade: +0.21R
• Max drawdown on the R curve: −13.2R (from equity peak in R)
Win rate sits near a coin flip, but expectancy per trade is positive on the full log. On the dashboard model (0.5% per 1R) that is roughly +18% from a 100% start; the orange floor is an 8% trailing drawdown from the account peak (prop-style limit). Paper only so fees, slippage, min size, and execution will cut live results.
My next steps:
- keep the core strategy unchanged while the full sample stays green;
- test tweaks only in shadow paths on the server (stats in the background);
- auto-disable weak variants via risk rules;
- ship to production only settings that hold up on enough trades;
- one more week of stats, then a real account, after that I'll push automated signals in this channel.
Update in about a week. Have a great day!
Stats from 30 April:
• Trades: 173
• Win rate: 50.3%
• Total: +35.8R
• Avg per trade: +0.21R
• Max drawdown on the R curve: −13.2R (from equity peak in R)
Win rate sits near a coin flip, but expectancy per trade is positive on the full log. On the dashboard model (0.5% per 1R) that is roughly +18% from a 100% start; the orange floor is an 8% trailing drawdown from the account peak (prop-style limit). Paper only so fees, slippage, min size, and execution will cut live results.
My next steps:
- keep the core strategy unchanged while the full sample stays green;
- test tweaks only in shadow paths on the server (stats in the background);
- auto-disable weak variants via risk rules;
- ship to production only settings that hold up on enough trades;
- one more week of stats, then a real account, after that I'll push automated signals in this channel.
Update in about a week. Have a great day!
❤2
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Hana Bank acquires 6.55% of Dunamu for $668M - bank capital entering crypto infrastructure directly, not via ETF
- Strategy added 11,707 BTC through STRC issuance with $1.5B trading volume - corporate appetite for BTC holds
- Jane Street increased positions in ETH funds, Riot, Coinbase and Galaxy while cutting BTC-ETF exposure - sector rotation continues
📉 Bearish factors
- Thorchain halted trading after a $10M exploit, RUNE -12% - liquidity frozen
- Open interest on Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX down a combined $1.25B following CPI data - leverage being cut
- BTC failing to hold above the 200-day MA, corporate buying down 80% week-over-week per Bitfinex data
👥 Traders yesterday
- Forward Industries holds nearly 7M SOL at an average of $232 vs. current price of $91 - unrealized loss of ~$1B, staking generates $17.38M per quarter but that's cold comfort
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair in a 54-45 vote, replacing Powell on May 15; previously called BTC an important asset
- CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, next step - full vote in both chambers
- CME and Nasdaq to launch crypto index futures (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM) on June 8 pending regulatory approval
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Hana Bank acquires 6.55% of Dunamu for $668M - bank capital entering crypto infrastructure directly, not via ETF
- Strategy added 11,707 BTC through STRC issuance with $1.5B trading volume - corporate appetite for BTC holds
- Jane Street increased positions in ETH funds, Riot, Coinbase and Galaxy while cutting BTC-ETF exposure - sector rotation continues
📉 Bearish factors
- Thorchain halted trading after a $10M exploit, RUNE -12% - liquidity frozen
- Open interest on Binance, Gate, Bybit and OKX down a combined $1.25B following CPI data - leverage being cut
- BTC failing to hold above the 200-day MA, corporate buying down 80% week-over-week per Bitfinex data
👥 Traders yesterday
- Forward Industries holds nearly 7M SOL at an average of $232 vs. current price of $91 - unrealized loss of ~$1B, staking generates $17.38M per quarter but that's cold comfort
- Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair in a 54-45 vote, replacing Powell on May 15; previously called BTC an important asset
- CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, next step - full vote in both chambers
- CME and Nasdaq to launch crypto index futures (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, LINK, XLM) on June 8 pending regulatory approval
#digest
❤1
Evening. BTC $79,171 (-2.8% for the day)
Thursday's gains have been returned - Friday erased the entire previous day's move.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish thesis failed: PDH $81,999 was never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Monthly Open $80,990 didn't hold - price dropped below during the Asian session
- Support at $78,869 (yesterday's low) is holding for now, but BTC is trading right against it
Session dynamics:
Asia started selling off immediately - nearly -1% bias on a narrow range, closed at $80,815. London increased pressure: range nearly 3%, bias -1.77%, close at $79,150. NY continues in the same direction; the first hour played out inside the range with no clean breakout.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI dropped alongside price - longs were liquidated, peak cascade around $97M. Bybit and OKX funding rates are pointing in opposite directions, while the OI divergence between Bybit and Binance is notable - positioning differs across venues. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been weaker than Asian for the third day running. Deribit put/call 0.69 - calls still dominate, the options market has not repositioned for downside.
Three consecutive bearish sessions have pushed BTC back to early-week levels - Friday is closing without a recovery.
#evening
Thursday's gains have been returned - Friday erased the entire previous day's move.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish thesis failed: PDH $81,999 was never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Monthly Open $80,990 didn't hold - price dropped below during the Asian session
- Support at $78,869 (yesterday's low) is holding for now, but BTC is trading right against it
Session dynamics:
Asia started selling off immediately - nearly -1% bias on a narrow range, closed at $80,815. London increased pressure: range nearly 3%, bias -1.77%, close at $79,150. NY continues in the same direction; the first hour played out inside the range with no clean breakout.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI dropped alongside price - longs were liquidated, peak cascade around $97M. Bybit and OKX funding rates are pointing in opposite directions, while the OI divergence between Bybit and Binance is notable - positioning differs across venues. Coinbase is trading at a discount to Asian exchanges: Western demand has been weaker than Asian for the third day running. Deribit put/call 0.69 - calls still dominate, the options market has not repositioned for downside.
Three consecutive bearish sessions have pushed BTC back to early-week levels - Friday is closing without a recovery.
#evening
BTC $78,994 (-2.1%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
OI dropped 9.1% over the past 24 hours - this is not a gradual exit, but a liquidation cascade. Longs were forcibly wiped out, with the largest cascade reaching approximately $97M. Price broke below $80K and is now trading at yesterday's low of $78,610.
Macro adds further pressure: US10Y rose to 4.59%, S&P -1.2%, Gold -2.6% - risk-off across all fronts simultaneously.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,946 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above this level fundamentally changes the picture
$81,624 - resistance, PDH. Second ceiling if the first one is broken
$78,610 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. Price is already here - a breakdown opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,946 and a volume-confirmed breakdown of $78,610
Invalidation: close above $80,946 accompanied by OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
OI dropped 9.1% over the past 24 hours - this is not a gradual exit, but a liquidation cascade. Longs were forcibly wiped out, with the largest cascade reaching approximately $97M. Price broke below $80K and is now trading at yesterday's low of $78,610.
Macro adds further pressure: US10Y rose to 4.59%, S&P -1.2%, Gold -2.6% - risk-off across all fronts simultaneously.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,946 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above this level fundamentally changes the picture
$81,624 - resistance, PDH. Second ceiling if the first one is broken
$78,610 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. Price is already here - a breakdown opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,946 and a volume-confirmed breakdown of $78,610
Invalidation: close above $80,946 accompanied by OI recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.