BTC $80,800 (+0.1%)
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
The week closed -1.6%, but we opened higher - CME gap $80,385-$80,895 now hangs below price unfilled. The market kicks off Monday right inside this zone.
L/S 0.71 - a notable skew, more shorts than at any point last week. OI meanwhile dropped 3.7% on the decline - longs were getting liquidated in cascades, not shorts being built up. That means positioning against the move formed organically, and if price holds above $80,895, pressure on short positions will keep building. Scoring is bullish with confidence 1.00 - both factors point in the same direction.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,385 - support, lower boundary of the CME gap. A break below invalidates the bullish thesis
$82,460 - PDH, next area of interest if the move continues higher
Looking at a long if we consolidate above $80,895 with rising OI - that would give the squeeze technical confirmation. A break below $80,385 - I move to cash and reassess.
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
The week closed -1.6%, but we opened higher - CME gap $80,385-$80,895 now hangs below price unfilled. The market kicks off Monday right inside this zone.
L/S 0.71 - a notable skew, more shorts than at any point last week. OI meanwhile dropped 3.7% on the decline - longs were getting liquidated in cascades, not shorts being built up. That means positioning against the move formed organically, and if price holds above $80,895, pressure on short positions will keep building. Scoring is bullish with confidence 1.00 - both factors point in the same direction.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,385 - support, lower boundary of the CME gap. A break below invalidates the bullish thesis
$82,460 - PDH, next area of interest if the move continues higher
Looking at a long if we consolidate above $80,895 with rising OI - that would give the squeeze technical confirmation. A break below $80,385 - I move to cash and reassess.
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- OTC supply of BTC collapsed to 142,000 BTC (vs. 550,000 in September 2021) - institutions are forced to buy on the open market, pressing the spot order book
- Capital B closed a $17.8M round for a bitcoin treasury - direct demand with no intermediaries
- SUI +50% on the back of zero-fee stablecoin launch and privacy features - staking activity is pulling the price up
📉 Bearish factors
- Iranian tensions are weighing on crypto: BTC showed sharp swings at CME open
- MARA expects a loss for Q1 2026, investors are rotating into the AI narrative - mining sector under pressure
- Australia is preparing capital gains tax changes for crypto investors - regulatory overhang
⚡️ Key event: LayerZero - $292M in losses and protocol exodus with $2B+ TVL
The team acknowledged a technical error in the Kelp hack three weeks ago. Following that, Kelp ($1.5B TVL), SolvProtocol ($600M), and Re ($200M) all left the platform - migrating to Chainlink CCIP. Total outflow exceeded $2B: this is no longer a local incident but a blow to trust in cross-chain infrastructure as a whole.
👥 Traders yesterday
- BTC OTC supply at an all-time low - 142,000 BTC vs. 550,000 in September 2021
- CryptoQuant recorded a sharp spike in Binance deposits at a local BTC peak - retail capital is returning to exchanges
- According to Santiment, retail was building crypto positions throughout last week while whales stayed cautious
- Foundry, AntPool, and F2Pool joined the Stratum V2 working group - combined that is over 75% of BTC hashrate
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- OTC supply of BTC collapsed to 142,000 BTC (vs. 550,000 in September 2021) - institutions are forced to buy on the open market, pressing the spot order book
- Capital B closed a $17.8M round for a bitcoin treasury - direct demand with no intermediaries
- SUI +50% on the back of zero-fee stablecoin launch and privacy features - staking activity is pulling the price up
📉 Bearish factors
- Iranian tensions are weighing on crypto: BTC showed sharp swings at CME open
- MARA expects a loss for Q1 2026, investors are rotating into the AI narrative - mining sector under pressure
- Australia is preparing capital gains tax changes for crypto investors - regulatory overhang
⚡️ Key event: LayerZero - $292M in losses and protocol exodus with $2B+ TVL
The team acknowledged a technical error in the Kelp hack three weeks ago. Following that, Kelp ($1.5B TVL), SolvProtocol ($600M), and Re ($200M) all left the platform - migrating to Chainlink CCIP. Total outflow exceeded $2B: this is no longer a local incident but a blow to trust in cross-chain infrastructure as a whole.
👥 Traders yesterday
- BTC OTC supply at an all-time low - 142,000 BTC vs. 550,000 in September 2021
- CryptoQuant recorded a sharp spike in Binance deposits at a local BTC peak - retail capital is returning to exchanges
- According to Santiment, retail was building crypto positions throughout last week while whales stayed cautious
- Foundry, AntPool, and F2Pool joined the Stratum V2 working group - combined that is over 75% of BTC hashrate
#digest
Evening. BTC $81,422 (-0.0% for the day)
Monday played out as a holding session: price barely moved from morning levels, yet session structure points to bull control.
What changed vs morning:
- CME gap $80,385-$80,895 filled during Asia - technical overhang below removed
- $80,385 support was never tested - morning bull thesis remains intact
- PDH $82,460 was never reached - no impulse found for continuation higher
Session dynamics:
Asia sold off with a -1.6% bias, closing near $80,740 - exactly where the CME gap filled. London reversed the move: upward bias, closing at $81,446. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers are in control of the session.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI contracted slightly - a long liquidation cascade ran through Asia at a peak of ~$103M, after which pressure eased. Funding on HL is mildly negative, no overheating. Deribit put/call 0.64, calls still dominant. Onchain proxy remains bullish - keeping it as a background signal for tomorrow.
The day closes at the same point it started: price held, session structure improved, Weekly High is in direct sight.
#evening
Monday played out as a holding session: price barely moved from morning levels, yet session structure points to bull control.
What changed vs morning:
- CME gap $80,385-$80,895 filled during Asia - technical overhang below removed
- $80,385 support was never tested - morning bull thesis remains intact
- PDH $82,460 was never reached - no impulse found for continuation higher
Session dynamics:
Asia sold off with a -1.6% bias, closing near $80,740 - exactly where the CME gap filled. London reversed the move: upward bias, closing at $81,446. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers are in control of the session.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI contracted slightly - a long liquidation cascade ran through Asia at a peak of ~$103M, after which pressure eased. Funding on HL is mildly negative, no overheating. Deribit put/call 0.64, calls still dominant. Onchain proxy remains bullish - keeping it as a background signal for tomorrow.
The day closes at the same point it started: price held, session structure improved, Weekly High is in direct sight.
#evening
BTC $81,081 (+0.4%)
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Price reached $82,350 yesterday - that level is both PDH and Weekly High - and failed to break through. Currently pulling back to $81K, but the structure remains intact: 4H and 1D stay bullish, last week's close at $82,210 is nearby.
US CPI releases today - this is the key catalyst of the day. L/S 0.64, OI is rising: shorts have built up significantly, and if the data doesn't disappoint, a short squeeze above $82,350 looks like a realistic scenario. Spot/Futures x9.3 - the move will be speculative, so the CPI reaction could be sharp in either direction.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$82,350 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. Breakout with volume is a long signal
$80,394 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A move below it changes the picture
$80,215 - support, Monthly Open. Losing this level removes the bullish thesis entirely
Scenario: ⬆️ bullish - breakout above $82,350 after CPI with rising OI
Invalidation: return below $80,394 before the data release
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
Price reached $82,350 yesterday - that level is both PDH and Weekly High - and failed to break through. Currently pulling back to $81K, but the structure remains intact: 4H and 1D stay bullish, last week's close at $82,210 is nearby.
US CPI releases today - this is the key catalyst of the day. L/S 0.64, OI is rising: shorts have built up significantly, and if the data doesn't disappoint, a short squeeze above $82,350 looks like a realistic scenario. Spot/Futures x9.3 - the move will be speculative, so the CPI reaction could be sharp in either direction.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$82,350 - resistance, PDH = Weekly High. Breakout with volume is a long signal
$80,394 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A move below it changes the picture
$80,215 - support, Monthly Open. Losing this level removes the bullish thesis entirely
Scenario: ⬆️ bullish - breakout above $82,350 after CPI with rising OI
Invalidation: return below $80,394 before the data release
#morning
Not investment advice.
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Morgan Stanley MSBT collected $193.6M in inflows in its first month with not a single day of outflows - live demand for spot BTC confirmed
- Weekly inflows into crypto products hit $857.9M - highest since April 24, BTC funds took in $706.1M for the sixth consecutive week
- SOL +15% in 24h following the Alpenglow launch on a test cluster - market is pricing in the transition to a new consensus architecture
📉 Bearish factors
- ETH/BTC ratio at a 10-month low - ETH continues to underperform BTC in relative terms
- A whale moved 500 BTC ($40.6M) to a new address for the first time in 12 years - classic signal ahead of a potential sale
⚡️ Key event: Circle raised $222M in the ARC token presale
Token sold at $0.3, Arc network FDV - $3B. Consortium includes a16z, BlackRock, Apollo, ARK Invest, Standard Chartered, SBI Group. Circle receives 25% of the initial supply. This investor lineup makes ARC one of the most heavily capitalized presales in the stablecoin infrastructure sector.
👥 Traders yesterday
- Strategy bought 535 BTC for ~$43M over the week - noticeably more modest than previous volumes; total balance 818,869 BTC at an average of $75,540
- Bitmine cut ETH purchases to 26,659 coins - roughly a quarter of prior weekly volumes
- BTC SOPR above 1 for nine consecutive days: coins are on average being sold at a profit, analysts note a shift from loss realization to sustained profitability
- Spot volume of tokenized gold in Q1 2026 reached $90.7B - more than the entirety of 2025 ($84.6B); PAXG and XAUT dominate
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Morgan Stanley MSBT collected $193.6M in inflows in its first month with not a single day of outflows - live demand for spot BTC confirmed
- Weekly inflows into crypto products hit $857.9M - highest since April 24, BTC funds took in $706.1M for the sixth consecutive week
- SOL +15% in 24h following the Alpenglow launch on a test cluster - market is pricing in the transition to a new consensus architecture
📉 Bearish factors
- ETH/BTC ratio at a 10-month low - ETH continues to underperform BTC in relative terms
- A whale moved 500 BTC ($40.6M) to a new address for the first time in 12 years - classic signal ahead of a potential sale
⚡️ Key event: Circle raised $222M in the ARC token presale
Token sold at $0.3, Arc network FDV - $3B. Consortium includes a16z, BlackRock, Apollo, ARK Invest, Standard Chartered, SBI Group. Circle receives 25% of the initial supply. This investor lineup makes ARC one of the most heavily capitalized presales in the stablecoin infrastructure sector.
👥 Traders yesterday
- Strategy bought 535 BTC for ~$43M over the week - noticeably more modest than previous volumes; total balance 818,869 BTC at an average of $75,540
- Bitmine cut ETH purchases to 26,659 coins - roughly a quarter of prior weekly volumes
- BTC SOPR above 1 for nine consecutive days: coins are on average being sold at a profit, analysts note a shift from loss realization to sustained profitability
- Spot volume of tokenized gold in Q1 2026 reached $90.7B - more than the entirety of 2025 ($84.6B); PAXG and XAUT dominate
#digest
Evening. BTC $80,253 (-1.5% on the day)
One direction all day: down. All three sessions closed with a negative bias.
What changed vs. morning:
- Morning long thesis failed: $82,350 was never tested, price moved the opposite way
- PDL $80,394 broken and holding below - structure has shifted
- Monthly Open $80,215 still holding, but price is trading right against it - bullish backdrop under pressure
Session dynamics:
Asia set the tone: nearly -1.2% bias, closing around $80,865. London continued the decline with no reversal. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and held below it - sellers kept control of the session.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI rose nearly 5% while price fell - shorts accumulating, not unwinding. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged in opposite directions, no unified sentiment across exchanges. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues - retail demand is softer. Deribit put/call 0.64, calls still dominant - options market hasn't repriced for the downside yet, creating an interesting divergence with price action.
Tuesday closes as the first genuinely bearish day of the week: three sessions down, Weekly Low broken, Monthly Open is the last line.
#evening
One direction all day: down. All three sessions closed with a negative bias.
What changed vs. morning:
- Morning long thesis failed: $82,350 was never tested, price moved the opposite way
- PDL $80,394 broken and holding below - structure has shifted
- Monthly Open $80,215 still holding, but price is trading right against it - bullish backdrop under pressure
Session dynamics:
Asia set the tone: nearly -1.2% bias, closing around $80,865. London continued the decline with no reversal. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and held below it - sellers kept control of the session.
Onchain / derivatives:
OI rose nearly 5% while price fell - shorts accumulating, not unwinding. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged in opposite directions, no unified sentiment across exchanges. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues - retail demand is softer. Deribit put/call 0.64, calls still dominant - options market hasn't repriced for the downside yet, creating an interesting divergence with price action.
Tuesday closes as the first genuinely bearish day of the week: three sessions down, Weekly Low broken, Monthly Open is the last line.
#evening
❤1
BTC $81,036 (+0.2%)
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
After yesterday's CPI, price pulled back from $82,350 and returned to Monthly Open $80,797 - essentially the same point where the entire week began. Three days of movement, zero progress.
L/S 0.71 - the short bias persists, with OI continuing to rise. This means new short positions are being opened right here, at support. If buyers hold the Monthly Open and price moves above PDH $81,757, those shorts will come under pressure - without any major news needed as a catalyst.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,757 - resistance, PDH. A breakout with volume activates pressure on short positions
$80,797 - support, Monthly Open. Price has held above this level for the third consecutive day
$79,801 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A move below this level invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ bullish - holding $80,797 and breaking $81,757 with rising OI
Invalidation: close below $80,797
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▬ 4H▲ 1D▲ 1W▼
After yesterday's CPI, price pulled back from $82,350 and returned to Monthly Open $80,797 - essentially the same point where the entire week began. Three days of movement, zero progress.
L/S 0.71 - the short bias persists, with OI continuing to rise. This means new short positions are being opened right here, at support. If buyers hold the Monthly Open and price moves above PDH $81,757, those shorts will come under pressure - without any major news needed as a catalyst.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$81,757 - resistance, PDH. A breakout with volume activates pressure on short positions
$80,797 - support, Monthly Open. Price has held above this level for the third consecutive day
$79,801 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A move below this level invalidates the bullish thesis
Scenario: ⬆️ bullish - holding $80,797 and breaking $81,757 with rising OI
Invalidation: close below $80,797
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤1
DXY pulse
DXY: 98.58 (+0.29% d/d)
US10Y: 4.46% (+0.05) | VIX: 18.0
BTC 24h: +0.55%
Current mode: neutral/mixed. If DXY continues rising with elevated VIX - pressure on crypto risk remains.
#dxy
DXY: 98.58 (+0.29% d/d)
US10Y: 4.46% (+0.05) | VIX: 18.0
BTC 24h: +0.55%
Current mode: neutral/mixed. If DXY continues rising with elevated VIX - pressure on crypto risk remains.
#dxy
❤1
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- CPI 3.8% didn't crash the market: BTC digested the data and recovered above $81,000
- Hyperliquid ETF debuted in the US with $1.2M on day one - called a "very strong" start
- Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: calls BTC "the new gold for people under 40"
📉 Bearish factors
- April CPI 3.8% vs. forecast 3.7%, energy +17.9% YoY - the Fed is now definitely in no rush to ease
- MARA: net loss $1.3B in Q1 2026, revenue fell 18% to $174.6M, BTC holdings down 26% to 35,303 BTC
- BTC perpetual futures funding rate moved out of negative territory to 6% - traders are nervous at $82,000
Inflation data and market reaction create an interesting contrast, but traders are clearly in no hurry to celebrate.
👥 Traders yesterday
- MARA sold ~$1.1B in BTC to repay debt, while hashrate grew 33% to 72.2 EH/s - operationally growing, financially burning
- Bear markets historically last at least 350 days, ~65% has passed; the bottom has never formed without touching the 350-day MA (~$47,000)
- BTC open interest posted its largest increase of 2026 - historically this level of overheating has ended in liquidations
- Ethereum Foundation reshuffles Protocol team: Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko out, new co-leads - Will Corcoran (zkVM), Kev Wedderburn (zkEVM), Fredrik (security)
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- CPI 3.8% didn't crash the market: BTC digested the data and recovered above $81,000
- Hyperliquid ETF debuted in the US with $1.2M on day one - called a "very strong" start
- Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair: calls BTC "the new gold for people under 40"
📉 Bearish factors
- April CPI 3.8% vs. forecast 3.7%, energy +17.9% YoY - the Fed is now definitely in no rush to ease
- MARA: net loss $1.3B in Q1 2026, revenue fell 18% to $174.6M, BTC holdings down 26% to 35,303 BTC
- BTC perpetual futures funding rate moved out of negative territory to 6% - traders are nervous at $82,000
Inflation data and market reaction create an interesting contrast, but traders are clearly in no hurry to celebrate.
👥 Traders yesterday
- MARA sold ~$1.1B in BTC to repay debt, while hashrate grew 33% to 72.2 EH/s - operationally growing, financially burning
- Bear markets historically last at least 350 days, ~65% has passed; the bottom has never formed without touching the 350-day MA (~$47,000)
- BTC open interest posted its largest increase of 2026 - historically this level of overheating has ended in liquidations
- Ethereum Foundation reshuffles Protocol team: Barnabé Monnot and Tim Beiko out, new co-leads - Will Corcoran (zkVM), Kev Wedderburn (zkEVM), Fredrik (security)
#digest
❤2
S&P 500
7,401 (+3.67% to yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,339 - 7,425 (1.21%).
S&P 500 gained nearly 4% on the day, while BTC lost a third of a percent - this divergence suggests capital is flowing into equities rather than crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) dropped to 18, reflecting a notable decline in investor anxiety following the sharp rally. Nasdaq, however, closed in the red, meaning S&P 500 gains are currently driven by the broader market rather than the tech sector - making the momentum less uniform in the near term.
#sp500
7,401 (+3.67% to yesterday's close).
Session range: 7,339 - 7,425 (1.21%).
S&P 500 gained nearly 4% on the day, while BTC lost a third of a percent - this divergence suggests capital is flowing into equities rather than crypto. The VIX volatility index (market fear gauge) dropped to 18, reflecting a notable decline in investor anxiety following the sharp rally. Nasdaq, however, closed in the red, meaning S&P 500 gains are currently driven by the broader market rather than the tech sector - making the momentum less uniform in the near term.
#sp500
❤2
Evening. BTC $78,840 (-1.7% on the day)
London broke the morning thesis - and NY didn't argue.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish scenario failed: Monthly Open $80,797 didn't hold, price dropped below PDL $79,801 - both key conditions violated
- PDH $81,757 never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Timeframe picture shifted: three bearish vs. one bullish
Session dynamics:
Asia was quiet, closed slightly positive at $81,027. London reversed everything: 3%+ range decline, closing at $78,827. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and stayed below - sellers are holding the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved during the price decline - positions aren't closing, pressure isn't easing. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged: no unified directional positioning. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues for the second day in a row - Western demand is weaker. Meanwhile Deribit put/call at 0.66 - calls still dominate, options market hasn't repositioned for the downside.
Wednesday repeated yesterday's pattern: Asia neutral, London set the direction, NY confirmed.
#evening
London broke the morning thesis - and NY didn't argue.
What changed vs. morning:
- Bullish scenario failed: Monthly Open $80,797 didn't hold, price dropped below PDL $79,801 - both key conditions violated
- PDH $81,757 never tested, shorts never came under pressure
- Timeframe picture shifted: three bearish vs. one bullish
Session dynamics:
Asia was quiet, closed slightly positive at $81,027. London reversed everything: 3%+ range decline, closing at $78,827. NY opened, broke the first-hour low and stayed below - sellers are holding the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI barely moved during the price decline - positions aren't closing, pressure isn't easing. Funding on Bybit and OKX diverged: no unified directional positioning. Coinbase trading at a discount to Asian venues for the second day in a row - Western demand is weaker. Meanwhile Deribit put/call at 0.66 - calls still dominate, options market hasn't repositioned for the downside.
Wednesday repeated yesterday's pattern: Asia neutral, London set the direction, NY confirmed.
#evening
❤1
BTC $79,850 (-2.2%)
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
F&G dropped from 49 to 34 in two days - a sharp shift in sentiment. The week opened 3.4% below the previous close, price broke the Monthly Open at $80,791 to the downside and is currently trading in the lower part of the weekly range.
OI fell by $1.25B - longs are exiting, not shorts being added. Spot/futures ratio x9.3: there is no real buyer behind the move, only the derivatives market. Until price reclaims $80,791, bounces look like a breather, not a reversal.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,791 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above it changes the picture
$78,714 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A break below opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,791 and a breakdown of $78,714
Invalidation: hourly candle close above $80,791 with volume recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
1H▼ 4H▼ 1D▲ 1W▼
F&G dropped from 49 to 34 in two days - a sharp shift in sentiment. The week opened 3.4% below the previous close, price broke the Monthly Open at $80,791 to the downside and is currently trading in the lower part of the weekly range.
OI fell by $1.25B - longs are exiting, not shorts being added. Spot/futures ratio x9.3: there is no real buyer behind the move, only the derivatives market. Until price reclaims $80,791, bounces look like a breather, not a reversal.
📍 Key levels for the day:
$80,791 - resistance, Monthly Open. A reclaim above it changes the picture
$78,714 - support, PDL = Weekly Low. A break below opens the path toward $77K
Scenario: ⬇️ bearish - holding below $80,791 and a breakdown of $78,714
Invalidation: hourly candle close above $80,791 with volume recovery
#morning
Not investment advice.
❤1
Digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Charles Schwab launched spot BTC and ETH trading for retail clients at a 0.75% fee - a broker with $12T AUM and 40M accounts entering crypto directly for the first time
- Moody's assigned its highest rating to tokenized funds from Fidelity and BlackRock - the RWA segment receives regulatory cover from the largest rating agency
- JPMorgan launched tokenized fund JLTXX on Ethereum to meet GENIUS Act reserve requirements - stablecoin issuers' funds will flow into Treasuries and overnight repos
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC ETF outflows totaled $635M in a single day - the largest one-day outflow in recent weeks
- CryptoQuant flags that BTC has reached the "major bear market resistance" zone - analysts warn of a risk that the rally breaks down
- KULR Technology moved 300 BTC (~$24.4M) to Coinbase Prime wallets - on-chain analysts read this as preparation for a sale
⚡️ Key event: Kelp DAO and Aave - $292M return after exploit
117,132 rsETH will be returned via a LayerZero OFT adapter within two weeks from the Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe. Kelp plans to unlock withdrawals within 24 hours after the first tranche. In parallel, a NY judge postponed the hearing on Aave's application to unfreeze $71M in ETH - meaning part of the liquidity remains locked for at least several more weeks.
👥 Traders yesterday
- If BTC drops to $77K, the market could face over $5B in long liquidations - one trader opened a short from current levels
- A large address holds a $90M BTC short with an average entry of $67,000 and a $45M ETH short with an average entry of $2,100 - unrealized losses have already exceeded $15M
- Solana DEX trading volume fell to 94% of Ethereum's level - a 12-month low; in January it was 218%
- Metaplanet recorded a net loss of ¥114.5B ($725.6M) in Q1 due to BTC revaluation, while revenue grew 251% YoY to $19.5M
#digest
📈 Bullish factors
- Charles Schwab launched spot BTC and ETH trading for retail clients at a 0.75% fee - a broker with $12T AUM and 40M accounts entering crypto directly for the first time
- Moody's assigned its highest rating to tokenized funds from Fidelity and BlackRock - the RWA segment receives regulatory cover from the largest rating agency
- JPMorgan launched tokenized fund JLTXX on Ethereum to meet GENIUS Act reserve requirements - stablecoin issuers' funds will flow into Treasuries and overnight repos
📉 Bearish factors
- Spot BTC ETF outflows totaled $635M in a single day - the largest one-day outflow in recent weeks
- CryptoQuant flags that BTC has reached the "major bear market resistance" zone - analysts warn of a risk that the rally breaks down
- KULR Technology moved 300 BTC (~$24.4M) to Coinbase Prime wallets - on-chain analysts read this as preparation for a sale
⚡️ Key event: Kelp DAO and Aave - $292M return after exploit
117,132 rsETH will be returned via a LayerZero OFT adapter within two weeks from the Aave Recovery Guardian and Kelp Recovery Safe. Kelp plans to unlock withdrawals within 24 hours after the first tranche. In parallel, a NY judge postponed the hearing on Aave's application to unfreeze $71M in ETH - meaning part of the liquidity remains locked for at least several more weeks.
👥 Traders yesterday
- If BTC drops to $77K, the market could face over $5B in long liquidations - one trader opened a short from current levels
- A large address holds a $90M BTC short with an average entry of $67,000 and a $45M ETH short with an average entry of $2,100 - unrealized losses have already exceeded $15M
- Solana DEX trading volume fell to 94% of Ethereum's level - a 12-month low; in January it was 218%
- Metaplanet recorded a net loss of ¥114.5B ($725.6M) in Q1 due to BTC revaluation, while revenue grew 251% YoY to $19.5M
#digest
❤2
Evening. BTC $81,435 (+3.3% on the day)
Three sessions up in a row - Thursday reversed the picture after two bearish days.
What changed vs morning:
- Monthly Open $80,791 broken and holding above - morning condition for a structural shift fulfilled
- The thesis of no real buyer is in question: move continued through London and NY without reversal
- By timeframe: 3 bullish vs 1 bearish - mirror flip vs yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia printed a weak but directional positive - closed at $79,746. London did the heavy lifting: nearly +2% bias, closing at $81,301. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers did not give up the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI rose alongside price - positions opening in the direction of the move, not against it. Funding on Bybit and OKX pointing in opposite directions with OI divergence between Bybit and Binance - the move is uneven rather than consolidated. Deribit put/call 0.67: calls dominating, options market positioning for continued upside.
The rally is structurally real, but without unified positioning across venues - consolidation above $80,791 tomorrow will show how sustainable it is.
#evening
Three sessions up in a row - Thursday reversed the picture after two bearish days.
What changed vs morning:
- Monthly Open $80,791 broken and holding above - morning condition for a structural shift fulfilled
- The thesis of no real buyer is in question: move continued through London and NY without reversal
- By timeframe: 3 bullish vs 1 bearish - mirror flip vs yesterday
Session dynamics:
Asia printed a weak but directional positive - closed at $79,746. London did the heavy lifting: nearly +2% bias, closing at $81,301. NY opened, broke the first-hour high and held above it - buyers did not give up the session.
Onchain/derivatives:
OI rose alongside price - positions opening in the direction of the move, not against it. Funding on Bybit and OKX pointing in opposite directions with OI divergence between Bybit and Binance - the move is uneven rather than consolidated. Deribit put/call 0.67: calls dominating, options market positioning for continued upside.
The rally is structurally real, but without unified positioning across venues - consolidation above $80,791 tomorrow will show how sustainable it is.
#evening
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