Food for thought

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Californians is this true?

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Today in Munich, the "Oktoberfest" has started — the world's largest beer festival has attracted tens of thousands of beer lovers who are already storming the tents with frothy beer.

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- Study for 20 years

- Work for 40 years

- Free for 5-10 years

- Die

It's a scam.

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The America 250th anniversary UFC fight is going to be AWESOME

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DEVELOPING: Fox News invited The ‘South Memphis Hypeman’ to motivate their crew and start the day off in a ‘unique way.’

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The H1-B Visa Situation:

Trump just raised the cost of an H-1B Visa to $100,000 PER YEAR, a +1,000% increase.

The US issues ~85,000 new H-1B Visas per year, which will now cost $8.5 BILLION/year.

What are the economic implications? Let us explain.

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An H-1B visa allows US employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations.

The initial Executive Order raised the cost of an H-1B visa to $100,000 for new AND existing holders.

The implications are MASSIVE.

For example, take a look at the top 15 H-1B visa employers.

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Amazon has ~11,000 employees on H-1B visas.

Assuming the cost of an H-1B goes from ~$10,000 to $100,000:

This would cost Amazon alone an incremental ~$990M PER YEAR.

These top 15 firms would incur an additional $7.2 billion per year in expense under the INITIAL Order.

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After an initial widespread panic among many large employers, the Trump Administration made a change today.

According to Politico, the fee increase will now ONLY count for NEW applicants.

While this is a huge change, it will have widespread implications on the labor market.

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The new policy will create a massive barrier to entry for non-US citizens in the US labor market.

Currently, ~73% of the H-1B visa program comes from India and ~13% from China.

Existing holders will actually benefit from less competition.

New applications will fall sharply.

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Here's where it gets even more interesting:

If you take a look at the list of H1-B visa employers, it is highly concentrated in tech.

In fact, 20% to 25% of electrical engineers in Silicon Valley hold H-1B visas.

That's more than TRIPLE the national average.

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The initial reaction by employers has been full of panic.

Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is advising all H1-B visa holders who are abroad to return BEFORE September 21st.

Microsoft and other technology giants have done the same amid the sudden change in policy.

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Take a look at Infosys, the 7th largest employer of H-1B visas:

The news came out at 1:50 PM ET on Friday and Infosys stock, $INFY, was -8% lower just 30 minutes later.

We expect some relief on Monday as markets react to the news that existing H-1Bs will not be impacted.

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Ultimately, Trump believes he is bringing jobs back to Americans with this move.

Particularly for Americans who are seeking entry level jobs.

The US unemployment rate for youth graduates aged 20-24 has averaged 8.1% over the last 3 months, the highest in 4 years.

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As the labor market weakens, we expect more policy changes from Trump.

The underemployment rate in the US just jumped to 8.1%, the highest since 2021.

The labor market has taken the spotlight.

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