JUST IN - Trump, asked about recession: "All I know is this. We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs and we're going to become so rich you're not going to know where to spend all that money. I'm telling you, you just watch."

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State of web3

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Bulls entering 2025

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Manus, the new AI product that everyone's talking about, is worth the hype.

This is the AI agent we were promised.
Deep Research+Operator+Computer Use+Lovable+memory.

Asked it to "Do a professional analysis of Tesla stock " and it did ~2wks of professional-level work in ~1hr!

The company is based in China / Singapore. Founder says it uses Claude Sonnet 3.5 for execution and a special post-trained Qwen for planning.

Yichao, the founder, tells me "agentic capabilities might be more of an alignment problem rather than a foundational capability issue."

Agentic wave is coming

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GM

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Currently: ((77_404 - 109_334) / 109_334) * 100 = -29.2%

Next stop -38% = $67k? (Lower diagonal line)

Or stop earlier at -31% = 75k-76k? (Orange line)

-38% was repeatedly hit during the last real bull run, can’t yet rule out the same this time

— This is despite the clear general decrease in volatility of $BTC over time, which would suggest we should be hitting some smaller pullback fractions this time

Would say if the macro crash deepens, it DOES feel possible that tradfi crashes “hard" but $BTC “only” crashes -38% during a brief pullback — the multiples on some of the top stocks looking much more questionable, much more rare, than $BTCs current position

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FWIW

-38% = $67k,

Would be ~at the intersection of the red line and blue diagonal line

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So was that the bottom?

We’ll find out

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