GM
Many secondary majors starting to boom
$BNB, $TRON, $AVX, $DOT, $LTC, etc
Unclear if will be sustained
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Many secondary majors starting to boom
$BNB, $TRON, $AVX, $DOT, $LTC, etc
Unclear if will be sustained
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👀6
Murad and other influencers pushing these kinds of EXTREMLEY cheap-to-fake “decentralization” metrics as “good”
— is exactly what makes them end up being “bad”….
Scammers overwhelmingly cheat these for ~free, with simple scripts, while legit coins don’t bother
= Anti-signal
Murad ends up screwing normies bad
— At least in my own backtests, found essentially all “decentralization” metrics to be strongly inversely associated with coins’ later success
Zero backtesting by these crypto influencers
Total insanity
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
— is exactly what makes them end up being “bad”….
Scammers overwhelmingly cheat these for ~free, with simple scripts, while legit coins don’t bother
= Anti-signal
Murad ends up screwing normies bad
— At least in my own backtests, found essentially all “decentralization” metrics to be strongly inversely associated with coins’ later success
Zero backtesting by these crypto influencers
Total insanity
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
😐4💯2
DoomPosting
Longish-term downward slide of $SOL/$BTC over past few days IIRC often tends to lead up to dumps… Will see later if I can chart the accuracy of such SOL/BTC-based predictions There’s some trickiness in that it’s very unclear the timespan over which such…
Did a quick classic lead/lag plot on BTC/USD vs SOL/BTC yesterday
Generally seeing positive correlations for negative lags (left side of chart generally positive), and negative correlations for positive lags (right side of chart generally negative)
I.e.
+ SOL/BTC’s next price movements have a strong POSITIVE correlation by BTC/USD’s past price movements, over SHORT timeframes
+ BTC/USD’s next price movements have a strong NEGATIVE correlation with SOL/BTC’s past price movements, over LONGER timeframes
— Which is fascinating, and exactly what we’d noticed… and lines up with the model we’d imagined
=
(1) $BTC directly driving the price of smaller coins like $SOL
— making BTC movements predictive of SOL movements in the short term
(2) BUT, smaller coins like $SOL also essentially trying to price-in the upcoming anticipated changes in $BTC price
— making SOL/BTC movements predictive of $BTC movements in the slightly longer medium term
Fascinating, just as we would’ve guessed — and slightly trickier than just one being predictive of the other. Predictive of each other, but in slightly different ways, and different time spans.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
Generally seeing positive correlations for negative lags (left side of chart generally positive), and negative correlations for positive lags (right side of chart generally negative)
I.e.
+ SOL/BTC’s next price movements have a strong POSITIVE correlation by BTC/USD’s past price movements, over SHORT timeframes
+ BTC/USD’s next price movements have a strong NEGATIVE correlation with SOL/BTC’s past price movements, over LONGER timeframes
— Which is fascinating, and exactly what we’d noticed… and lines up with the model we’d imagined
=
(1) $BTC directly driving the price of smaller coins like $SOL
— making BTC movements predictive of SOL movements in the short term
(2) BUT, smaller coins like $SOL also essentially trying to price-in the upcoming anticipated changes in $BTC price
— making SOL/BTC movements predictive of $BTC movements in the slightly longer medium term
Fascinating, just as we would’ve guessed — and slightly trickier than just one being predictive of the other. Predictive of each other, but in slightly different ways, and different time spans.
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
👏3👀3
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i.e. $BTC booms or dips do indeed seem to drive immediate, much bigger booms or dips in the smaller coins
But also, price movements in the smaller coins do seem to predict upcoming movements of $BTC, on longer time frames
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
But also, price movements in the smaller coins do seem to predict upcoming movements of $BTC, on longer time frames
🄳🄾🄾🄼🄿🄾🅂🅃🄸🄽🄶
😭5👀2